DAPL update: the one-two punch. Winter storm Blanche was a warning shot. The real storm hits this next week. And then we settle into twelve weeks of North Dakota winter. The AP, with a long story, has an update.
Heidi Heitkamp meets Trump: that pretty much sums it up.
OPEC: commentary by Richard Zeits. I don't know how I missed this one. The article is five days old. Fortunately Don caught it; sent it to me. The article itself doesn't say much, but that's in light of the fact that it's an old article. Maybe it read better the day it was posted. Whatever. Having said that, here are my thoughts, now, also five days late:
at the end of the day, this is all about Saudi Arabia, not OPEC
or maybe, at the end of the day, this is all about Saudi Arabia and Iran
those two had to agree for the meeting to end on a positive note for OPEC
A fiery double suicide bombing terrorized a mostly Shiite residential
area of southern Beirut on Thursday, ripping through a busy shopping
district at rush hour. The Lebanese Health Ministry said at least 43
people had been killed and more than 200 wounded in the worst attack to
strike the city in years.
The Saudi actions began in the small Shiite-majority kingdom of Bahrain, which is ruled by a Sunni royal family. The Saudis provided a small contingency force
to suppress the Bahrainis who rose up against their government in 2011.
In that case, the Saudi motivation to keep a Sunni government in power
was combined with the fear that the fall of the Bahraini royal dynasty
would open the door to similar uprisings in Saudi Arabia and other
Persian Gulf countries. Add to that the presence of a suppressed Shiite
minority that lives in the oil rich eastern region of the Kingdom and
the fear that Iran could control Bahrain — all were factors in the Saudi
decision to act in Bahrain.
The media's 30-second soundbite suggests Saudi Arabia is homogeneous: Sunni. In fact, the map below certain gives one pause: the Shi-ite presence is not only significant in geographic expanse, the location of the Shi-ite sect in Saudi Arabia has to be concerning for the princes.
Later, 6:41 p.m.: a reader sent me New York Times' Ross Douthat's explanation. Compare Douthat's explanation with mine below -- it's clear which one is more plausible. Douthat's column only explains how things went wrong for President Obama, not his goal and the reason for that goal.
Later, 1:18 p.m.: This is embarrassing to post; everyone knew but me. I've been struggling to find the connection between President Obama and Iran. It's easy to understand why the president will side with Iran when it comes to Israel, but I've been struggling to figure out why Obama sides with Iran (Shi-ite) over Iraq (Sunni). It's well known that President Obama, regardless of where he was born, was raised in a Muslim community through kindergarten and into his elementary school years. But his was a Sunni upbringing (that is also well established). So, the conundrum (not to be confused with corundum, which is a ruby or sapphire) was why Obama was on the side of the Shi-ite Iranians.
I am very, very embarrassed. The answer was obvious. I might have known at one time; if I did, I forgot. The dot to connect: Valerie Jarrett. Ms Jarrett was born in Iran and lived there for five years, through kindergarten (everyone one needs to know in life, one learns in kindergarten). She grew up learning to speak French and ... drum roll ... Farsi (Persian). [Some have said "you are what you eat." Others say your heritage lies in your language.]
The dots are all connected. I can go to bed happy-er tonight.
The only irony: the president and Valerie Jarrett were on a roll to slam-dunk the Iranian deal -- until ISIS screwed up everything. Barack thought ISIS was JV. Another misreading by the president. Now Yemen is involved. Syria is involved. Saudi Arabia is involved. The Egyptians are involved. It's a free fall for the Iraqis and a free-for-all for the Middle East.
[A big "thank you" to the reader who sent me this link -- I read very little of it; but it put me on the path to Valerie.]
And to think, President Obama and Valerie Jarrett were oh, so close. That's why Obama was going to go golfing this weekend -- a celebratory round of golf with a Kerry announcement that the Iranian deal was signed, sealed, and delivered.
It will have to wait.
Sealed with a kiss or return to sender?
Return to Sender, Elvis Presley
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From Barron's this week:
... most of Congress may still view Iran as an axis evil, but a few brave analysts are starting to pitch it as something else: the next great emerging market.
"Iran is the largest economy in the world by far that remains cut off from global markets ... it's like Turkey but with 9% of the world's oil reserves."
... any nukes-for-sanction deal will throw open Iran's investment gates whatever the next US administration might do. European and Asian capitalists will not turn back so long as Tehran keeps its end of the bargain [which won't be difficult].
They will capitalize on the country's heretofore hidden advantages -- a population of 81 million with a vigorous median age of 28, wages as low as Vietnam's but much better education, and a diversified economy that has learned to make everything from cars to vodka [an Islamist nation] during decades of isolation.
... "Iran is the only economy we have ever seen that has a positive trade balance in every one of 70 in every one of 70 export categories, including alcohol [an Islamist nation]."
When one reads that, one almost gets the feeling that Soros, et al, are advising Kerry and Obama.
By the way, quick: if the population of Iran is 81 million, what's the population of Germany?
Years and years ago, in a different world far away, one of our first friends in a new assignment was Iranian -- he and she were living in northeast North Dakota, most likely Grafton, and if not Grafton, probably Grand Forks. I always got the feeling the Iranians and Americans could have been great allies, then. It will be interesting to see how current events play out.
If sanctions come off, and money flows to Iran, the writing is pretty much on the wall. A unified Iraq is history. Saudi Arabia remains the prize.
Oh, by the way, the answer to the pop quiz: the population of Germany is 81 million. Also.
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Quick: How Much Does Jamie Dimon (JP Morgan) Have In Assets?
$2.6 trillion.
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Tim's Vermeer
On more than one occasion I have blogged on Tim's Vermeer (e.g., here). It remains on my top twenty (the second ten) list of DVD movies.
In this week's Wall Street Journal Review, "Through A Glass, Brightly," a book review of Eye of the Beholder, by Laura J. Snyder, c. 2015. The sub-heading: Antoni van Leeuwenhoek and Johannes Vermeer were neighbors in Delft. Still, no one knows if they ever met.
So, did the reviewer (Jonathan Lopez) or the author, Laura Snyder mention Tim's Vermeer? Not that I can tell, unless I missed it. I'm dismayed to say the least. Neither Lopez nor Snyder know as much about the subject as one would expect. A simple google search would have brought Tim's Vermeer to their attention (as well as that of Hockney) on the first page of hits.
March 29, 2015: I woke up early this Sunday morning, anxious (as in "worried") whether I should have posted the note below. Was I a bit ahead of my headlights? Apparently not. This from The New York Post:
Iran long held designs on a Shia Crescent and control over
Arab lands, which helps explain why Egypt, Saudi Arabia and others
counted themselves as our allies. They are furious as they watch Iran
get a nuclear pass from Obama and a green light to expand its power.
The nuclear program will have the United Nations stamp of
approval, as will Iranian control of four Arab capitals — Damascus,
Beirut, Baghdad and now Sanaa, Yemen. Indeed, Obama and Secretary of
State John Kerry suggest Iran even could be an ally in the fight against
Islamic State and al Qaeda. Already there has been coordination there,
leading critics to say America is acting as the Iranian air force.
Sightings of the Revolutionary Guard leader, Maj. Gen. Qasem Suleimani,
leading Iranian-sponsored militias against Islamic State in Iraq has
spread alarm throughout the region. The fears reached a fever pitch when
Iranian-allied Houthi rebels took over Yemen, chasing out our soldiers
and allies with chants of “Death to America, death to Israel.”
Major General Qasem Suleimani could easily become Suleimani the Magnificent.
Analysis: Israel has spent five years warning that Iran seeks Shiite domination of the Muslim world, and the Gulf States know by now not to rely on the Obama administration.
Operation Storm of Resolve, designed to rescue Yemen President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi's regime from the clutches of the Houthi rebels, began with an exercise in misdirection.
At midnight between Wednesday and Thursday, the first squadron of Saudi Arabian fighter planes launched attacks on targets in the Yemeni capital, Sana'a – air force bases, arms depots belonging to the rebels, the palace of former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, and a reserve forces base in the south of the city that was taken by the rebels last month.
The strike caught the rebels by surprise. At a meeting earlier on Wednesday night between Houthi rebel leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi and ousted president Salah, the two had coordinated an assault on Aden, Yemen's second-largest city.
"If Aden falls," the ousted president promised, "Yemen will fall, and the forces will be able to turn their attention to the greater task at hand – taking control of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait for the purpose of overseeing marine traffic into the Red Sea."
Yada, yada, yada ....
A spokesman for the Houthi rebels responded in kind, commenting: "We have already proved to you in 2009 how easy it is to invade the territory of the kingdom. Your army is weak. Today we are more skilled. When we decide to invade, we won't stop in the city of Mecca, but will continue on to Riyadh to topple the government institutions."
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I didn't read the rest of the article so I don't know how much history was covered in the article.
Three data points that need to be kept in mind. Before the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, Iraq and Iran were constantly at war, and kept each other somewhat "contained." Iraq was unable to take advantage of Hussein's overthrow and it looks like it's just a matter of time for Iran to be the dominant military resident power in the region.
The second data point: for whatever reasons, Iraq has fallen off the radar. The news that is coming out of Iraq suggests that it is going the way VP Joe Biden suggested many years ago: the Balkanization of Iraq. It's just a matter of time before the southern third of modern-day Iraq becomes the 32nd province of Iran. Sunni Iraq will have Iran/Syria/ISIS to the north; ISIS internally; and Iran to the south.
The third data point: Sunni Saudi Arabia is now surrounded by Shiites. (See inset in above graphic.)
Saudi Arabia is The Prize.
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The Iran/Syrian/ISIS coalition has eighteen (18) months of opportunity. President Obama leaves office in about 22 months.
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Another data point: with regard to Iraq; with regard to Iran; with regard to ISIS -- from the point of view of the Saudis, the US, the French, the British, who's in charge? Where's the unity of command, perhaps the most important principle in warfighting.
April 1, 2015: The Washington Times explains why President Obama is taking on the biggest risk of his presidency: negotiating with Iran.
“With all this turmoil in the Arab world, you need a workable
relationship with the other side,” said Shawn Brimley, a former director
for strategic planning in the White House. “You can’t argue with Iran’s
importance in the region. That’s why Obama is taking this extremely
seriously.”
Later, 3:13 p.m.: supporting the idea that Persia is rising, it is now being reported that Saudi Arabia also wants to go nuclear. Another Obama legacy -- giving the green light to Iran to go nuclear with a) promise to let them develop their program unfettered; and, b) giving top cover to the mullahs by releasing details of Israel's nuclear program.
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At the link on the sidebar on the right I have something I call "The Big Story." I'm not sure I want to add "The New Persian Empire" to the list of "big stories" but the tea leaves suggest this is the new direction things are taking. The reason I hesitate is because this direction may only be temporary -- as long as this administration is in office. Things may change in two years, but right now it looks like "Persia Rising." I like to limit the "Big Stories" to those that have longevity.
For the archives, it looks like this will be the year that the sanctions on Iran ends. Iran will be able to develop its nuclear program unfettered. With the release of previously-classified US Department of Defense documents regarding Israel's nuclear program, this gives the Iranian mullahs the top cover they need to develop their own program. Iran seems to have successfully exported any internal terrorism to Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and now, possibly to Somalia. Even as Iraq seems to be imploding -- certainly Iraq's trajectory towards a stronger, safer, westernized nation is going ballistic -- Iran seems to be gathering itself, and preparing to become a major player on the global stage. Even now, which country carries more weight in the UN, Iraq or Iran? That's an open book question.
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Bakken Rigs Continue To Fall
Active rigs: down to 97, a new low in the boom ...
