Thursday, May 22, 2025

It Feels Like A "Johnny Rivers" Kind Of Night -- May 22, 205

Locator: 48657ARCHIVES.

We'll start with "Secret Agent Man." 
 

Hilarious, link here.

Holy mackerel! U.S. EV sales hit a record 1.3 million in 2024, according to Cox Automotive. Link here. Still depending on government handouts.

While both EV production and sales are expected to continue, removing the carrots and sticks—the incentives and penalties—to do so is likely to slow their growth. A recent report from the International Energy Agency now projects that EVs and plug-in hybrids will make up 20% of new-car sales in 2030, down from an estimated 55% in last year's report
Did anyone really think 55% of new car sales would be EVs? Only because they’re “fake EVs.”

Next president. Link here. Play video at the link.

PEMEX? Broke? It’s about to re-structure. Generally that term is used with “bankruptcy.”

Bluesky: wow, what a dud. First time I’ve looked at it in months. More than disappointing. 

Bakken, Tech -- May 22, 2025

Locator: 48656B.
Locator: 48656TECH.

Humor: our five-year grandson (a twin) having a cookie for dessert: "O-E-R-O spells Arianna." Arianna is his "big" cousin. LOL. That's pretty good. His first language is Japanese. 

Student visas: FAFO. 

Harvard could ruin it for universities across the country if the State Department changes rules on student visas. My hunch: the State Department is about to formulate the "Harvard rule" with regard to international students. First question I would ask: the applicant’s position on Israel.I have no sympathy / empathy for university presidents that think they can take on the president of the United States. At some point it becomes tedious. Ask ChatGPD: does Harvard have a history of being anti-semitic?

Tech: wow, I'm in a good mood. This sixth industrial revolution is incredible. On top of everything else it's self-financing and the tech companies have very, very deep pockets. Now, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan:

More, link here.

Stargate, Abilene, TX, is tracked here.

Is anyone paying attention? OpenAI, Nvidia, Cisco, Oracle. 

By the way, the next big thing? AI and big HMOs. Independent hospital networks.

Think Kaiser Permanente, UnitedHealthCare, BC/BS, Aetna, Humana, and the list goes on.
Private hospital systems, Mayo, Cleveland Clinic, Johns Hopkins Medicine, Mass General Brigham, Cedars-Sinai, Mount Sinai Health System, NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital System, Stanford Health Care, UCLA Health, and Houston Methodist.
I assume Baylor White in the DFW area and MD Anderson, Texas should also be incuded.
There's a reason I posted this. Stay Tuned. Query: Nashville. HCA Healthcare; Vanderbuilt University Medical Center, Ascension State Hospital, Saint Thomas West, Saint Thomas Midtown; Community Health Systems. Low-hanging fruit.

A few of my favorite things: Palantir; Anthropic (Claude 4); Stargate; xAi; Apple; Amazon.  

Ad for Claude: Atlantic.


Holy tech, Batman: FTC drops case over Microsoft’s $69 billion Activision Blizzard deal. Wow! 

Headlines suggest a lot of anaysts simply don't "get" the sixth industrial revolution.

Time for a musical interlude, wouldn't you say? Link here.

Tim Cook vs Steve Jobs: it appears that Tim Cook's lack of expertise (or lack of vision) finally caught up with him.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $60.78

Active rigs: 33.

Four new permits, #41946 - #41949, inclusive:

  • Operator: Devon Enery
  • Field: Painted Woods (Williams)
  • Comments:
    • Devon Energy has permits for four Owan Trust South wells, NWNW 32-154-103, 
      • to be sited 888 / 978 FNL and 349 FWL.

One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:

  • 37876, 1,168, BR, Manchester 1A, Dunn County;

A Huge One Missed By Warren Buffett -- May 22, 2025

Locator: 48655TECH.
Locator: 48655BRK.

SNOW revenue, link here:

The post-mortem suggests one or two of his lieutenants found this gem. They started a position in SNOW for the BRK portfolio. Sometime later, the boss became nervous and sold it all. From AI, I am being told that BRK no longer holds any SNOW, sold some time ago. 

Another example of Warren Buffett not investing for the long term, but rather trading.  

$1 billion: pocket change for BRK.

I highlighted SNOW on the blog several times over the past few years. 

From OpenGPT:

Berkshire Hathaway first invested in Snowflake Inc. (NYSE: SNOW) during its initial public offering in September 2020. The company purchased $250 million worth of shares at the IPO price of $120 and acquired an additional 4 million shares from existing shareholders at the debut trading price, marking a rare venture into IPO investments for Berkshire.
In the second quarter of 2024, Berkshire Hathaway sold its entire stake in Snowflake, totaling approximately 6.13 million shares. The average closing price during this period was around $147.69, with the stock trading between $124.21 and $165.04.

Today SNOW shares surged 11% (almost $20/share), trading at $199 / share.

(2,083,333 shares + 4 million shares) x $120 = $730 million.

Sold for $148 / share.

Today, at $199 / share = $1,211 million.

A lot of money left on the table.  

UAE AI -- OpenAI, Oracle, Nvidia, Cisco -- 10-Square-Mile-5-GW Stargate Data Center -- Largest AI Data Center Outside The US -- May 22, 2025

Locator: 48654TECH.

Folks may want to look at the 5-day ticker for ORCL, NVID, and CSCO.

Link here

From the linked article:

Technology giants OpenAI, Oracle, Nvidia and Cisco are joining forces to help build a sweeping Stargate artificial intelligence campus in the United Arab Emirates.
During his Middle East tour last week, President Donald Trump and the U.S. Commerce Department announced a slew of new AI deals, including the UAE Stargate project slated for Abu Dhabi.

The project, in collaboration with Emirati firm G42, will span 10 square miles and include a 5-gigawatt capacity.

As part of the deal, OpenAI and Oracle are slated to manage a 1-gigawatt compute cluster built by G42. The project will include chips from Nvidia, while Cisco Systems will provide connectivity infrastructure.

The companies said an initial 200-megawatt AI cluster should launch next year.

Trump's May, 2025, Middle East tour projects are tracked here.

From that link:

  • Key Agreements: 
    • Technology & AI: Establishment of the largest AI data center outside the U.S. in Abu Dhabi, in partnership with Emirati firm G42; 


Disney -- May 22, 2025

Locator: 48653DIS.

Disney: my wife and I pay $150 / night for a 3-star Best Western motel when traveling. We drop in about 10:00 p.m. and depart first thing in the morning. No amenities, except perhaps a free cup of coffee. We often leave before breakfast is served. A bed for about eight hours: $150. Now, Disney is advertising a 100-year anniversary special: full-day ticket prices, $100/day. 

Disney: will fire Venezuelan workers. Disney is often the lead in these things; the rest will follow. Good, bad, indifferent, the Trump administration continues a full-court press to turn this thing around. 

YouTube: has really stepped up their game. The other night I mentioned this to my wife. You want to get the "news" -- "news" anywhere -- network TV fails. YouTube used to provide "news" updates 24 to 72 hours after the fact. YouTube is now loading videos of "news stories" that are just breaking. I mentioned to my wife it was just a matter of time before YouTube surpasses legacy network evening news. Why are legacy network stations still around: it turns out a lot of folks still don't have internet at home and rely on free, over-the-air television. How amazing is YouTube? Link here. YouTube is owned by Google.


Salaries: average salaries in every state. Link here. Note where all your tax dollars are going.


A much better metric -- the above, and then add in state income taxes, property taxes, and sales taxes.  

  • For example, Minnesota vs North Dakota:
    • sales taxes: a wash
    • property taxes: a wash
    • state income tax: significantly higher in Minnesota
  • property tax is interesting, California vs Texas:
    • 0.7% vs 1.6%
    • average home price: $800,000 vs $400,000
    • sales tax: a wash but California is higher, 7% vs 6%
      • but higher retail prices overall, make the sales tax even higher


Thursday -- Last Day Of School For Sophia -- May 22, 2025

Locator: 48652B.

Harvard: Harvard University’s Student and Exchange Visitor Program certification is revoked. 

Religious school charters: US Supreme Court rules. Taxpayer money cannot fund religious charter schools.

NY Knicks: gave one away.  "Pacers stun Knicks with incredible comeback victory at MSG," Get Up.

US House passes Trump's "tax and spend" bill, or whatever it's called (perhaps, "slash and burn"?). In a late-night vote. Holy mackerel, talk about a close vote, 215 - 214. But it was even closer than that: of three Republican "holdouts," one voted "present" and two others did not vote; had they voted against the bill, the bill would have "died." Two Republicans did vote against the bill (a Pyrrhic win for their constituency -- and they won't get any love from Trump). Tennessee John Republic was perhaps the "key vote," but then again, many, many, many key votes.  The New York Times said,

"The legislation would slash taxes, steer more money to the military and border security, and pay for some of this with cuts to Medicaid, food assistance, education and clean energy programs, adding significantly to federal deficits and to the ranks of the uninsured." [It's hard to believe a bill like that would get passed.]

Slash and burn: "Worse than feared." -- Bloomberg

Subsidies for clean power would end years earlier in a giant tax and spending bill narrowly passed by the Republican-led House of Representatives early Thursday, driving down shares of solar companies including Sunrun Inc.

It now moves to the Senate, where key Republicans have already balked at some of the House’s plans. Some wanted longer transition times before the latest House bill cut those even further. (Some senators need more time to sell their solar shares.)

The House bill is “worse than feared” for clean energy, analysts at Jeffries said in a research note Thursday. They added, however, that “we don’t expect this to last into Senate draft.”

Shares of Sunrun fell 44% in early trading Thursday. SolarEdge Technologies Inc. sank 17%.

*******************************
Meanwhile


The Qatar plane deal
: all the political hand-wringing is tedious. I have my own thoughts on the "gift": completely unnecessary but for practical reasons, not political reasons. Whatever. But for those complaining politically about the gift, it's always interesting to revisit the past:

Hunter Biden's Business Ventures

  • Burisma Holdings (Ukraine): Hunter Biden served on the board of Burisma, a major Ukrainian gas producer, from 2014 to 2019.
  • BHR Partners (China): He co-founded BHR Partners, a Chinese investment firm, in 2013.
  • CEFC China Energy: He had a business relationship with CEFC, a Chinese energy company.
  • Other Ventures: He also pursued deals in countries like Kazakhstan, Romania, and Russia.

Biggest story right now: Sam Altman. Casually hands $6.4 billion to Jony Ive for project Io and is simultaneously building the largest AI data center in the middle of the west Texas. And OpenAI will remain a non-profit. All this needs to be fact-checked.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $60.35.

New wells

  • Friday, May 23, 2025: 51 for the month, 151 for the quarter, 350 for the year,
    • None.
  • Thursday, May 22, 2025: 51 for the month, 151 for the quarter, 350 for the year,
    • 41145, conf, BR, Watchman Peak 5E,
    • 40499, conf, Oasis, Lee S 5201 21-8 2B,

RBN Energy: Next Wave uses innovative approach to produce high-quality alkylate.

It’s been about a year and a half since Next Wave Energy Partners opened its Project Traveler facility, a milestone in the energy industry. Overall, Project Traveler has exceeded production expectations and proven the innovative approach of combining ethylene and isobutane to produce high-quality alkylate. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll look at what’s been accomplished so far and dive into what’s ahead for Next Wave.

We first mentioned Next Wave’s ethylene-to-alkylate project (see photo below) back in 2020 in Drive My Car. (We also discussed it in Keeps Getting Better, Part 1 and Part 2, and, most recently, in Traveler.) It is a unique, standalone alkylation facility, with no crude oil processing involved. Instead, the feedstock is ethylene, which is converted to butylene in a dimerization unit and then further converted to alkylate in a conventional sulfuric acid (H2SO4) alkylation unit. (More on this below.)

Next Wave’s Project Traveler in Pasadena, TX

Figure 1. Next Wave’s Project Traveler in Pasadena, TX. Source: Next Wave

As a brief refresher, gasoline is a blend of many hydrocarbon components (including alkylate) that, in combination, meet certain specifications. It’s up to refineries and gasoline blenders to come up with gasoline recipes that satisfy the requirements of specifications like Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP), octane and sulfur content. As you’re reminded with each visit to the pump, there are at least three octane-based grades of gasoline; the standard ones in most of the country are 87 (regular), 91 (midgrade) and 93 (premium). The octane number — the closer to 100 the better — indicates how much a fuel can be compressed before it self-ignites, which causes “knocking” in your engine, while RVP measures how easily a fuel vaporizes — typically the lower the better for emissions reasons.

Blendstocks that are high in octane and low in RVP, benzene and sulfur content are the most desirable for refineries and gasoline blenders. Alkylate, typically produced at crude oil refineries with fluid catalytic cracking units (FCCs), is perhaps the major gasoline component with the best combination of these four qualities: octane of 90 to 96, RVP of 3 to 6 pounds per square inch at atmospheric pressure (psia), zero benzene content, and sulfur content of only 5 to 15 parts per million (ppm).

While overall gasoline demand in the U.S. has remained relatively flat over the past several years, demand for higher-octane grades (midgrade and premium) has grown. A major reason for this is the push to increase the fuel efficiency of internal-combustion-engine (ICE) vehicles using higher compression and turbocharged engines, which require higher-octane fuels. Another factor incentivizing the production of high-octane components is the “lightening” of U.S. refiners’ crude slates due to the Shale Boom. When higher-API shale oil barrels are refined, they produce more naphtha, which has a low octane number and therefore needs to be “blended up” with high-octane components like alkylate in the gasoline pool. An important fact to note is that existing refineries can’t do much to ramp up their alkylate production (typically representing about 15% of the total gasoline pool) because they already run full in almost all circumstances.