Saturday, March 9, 2019

Remember The Aagvik Wells? March 9, 2019

See this post. At that post, the data will be up dated; this post will not be updated.

The well:
  • 17986, 501, Oasis, Aagvik 1-35H, Banks, t12/09; cum 185K 1/19; came off line 7/18;
As noted, this well came off line 7/18 and was listed as IA. It has now been returned to A status. Notice the jump in production. 3,680 bbls over 7 days extrapolates to 15,771 bbls / 30-day month. This well has never produced that much oil in one month.

Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

In addition, this well has never produced more than 13,000 bbls/month. See initial production after original frack:

The CLR Peterson Wells In East Fork Have Been Fracked -- March 9, 2019

From an earlier post:
July 27, 2018: a group of wells (#34465, #34464, #34463, #34462, #34461, #34460)  -- Irgens Rexall (#21068) -- ROS -- as of 8/18 the rig is gone; #34464 this date; all are being drilled; 8/18 -- SI/NC);  
Update: the CLR Peterson wells in East Fork have been fracked but still confidential;

A Madison With Full Section Spacing And Five Horizontals -- March 9, 2019

Link here.

(Your Love Keeps Lifting Me) Higher and Higher, Rita Coolidge

Finally, Fracked! The Equinor Mark Wells In Williston Oil Field Finally Fracked -- March 9, 2019

From an earlier post:
It appears these wells on sister pads have finally been fracked:
  • 32238, 383, Equinor, Mark 4-9F XE 1H, Williston, 47 stages, 8.8 million lbs, t2/19 cum --;
  • 32293, 237, Equinor, Mark 4-9F 8TFH, Williston, 41 stages; 9.1 million lbs, t1/19; cum --;
  • 32292, 2,387, Equinor, Mark 4-9F 7H, Williston, 48 stages; 9.1 million lbs, t1/19; cum --; 
  • 25958, SI/NC, Equinor, Mark 4-9F 3H, Williston, 
  • 25957, 1,727, Equinor, Mark 4-9F 4TFH, Williston, 40 stages; 8.7 million lbs, t2/19; cum --;
  • 25956, 1,828, Equinor, Mark 4-9F 5H, Williston, 45 stages; 8.5 million lbs, t1/19; cum --;
  • 25955, 690, Equinor, Mark 4-9F 6TFH, Williston, 40 stages; 9.0 million lbs, t1/19; cum --;
  • 22132, tdry, Equinor, M. Ellis 4-9-1H, Williston, 2/12;
  • 23746, AB/2,145, Equinor, Mark 4-9 2TFH, Williston, 430 stages; 3.7 million lbs, t1/14; cum 166K 9/17 ; off line since 9/17; was producing a respectable 2,000 bbls/month when AB;
  • 32238, 2383, Equinor, Mark 4-9F XE 1H Williston, 47 stages; 8.8 million lbs, t2/19; cum --; 
It will be interesting to see if #23746 ever comes back on line. It was a very, very good well.

For newbies: these are very, very typical wells for Equinor in this area.

It's A Pretty Big Deal When It's Linked At Drudge; And, A CNN Headline Story -- March 9, 2019

Link here.


From the linked article:
Move over, Saudi Arabia. America is about to steal the kingdom's energy exporting crown.
The United States will surpass Saudi Arabia later this year in exports of oil, natural gas liquids and petroleum products, like gasoline, according to energy research firm Rystad Energy. 
That milestone, driven by the transformative shale boom, would make the United States the world's leading exporter of oil and liquids. That has never happened since Saudi Arabia began selling oil overseas in the 1950s, Rystad said in a report Thursday. 
"It's nothing short of remarkable," said Ryan Fitzmaurice, energy strategist at Rabobank. "Ten years ago, no one thought it could happen."
Of course, then a lot of anti-fossil fuel stuff. But then again, it's CNN.

Bakken Workforce Is Changing: Fewer Temporary Workers; More Long-Term Workers

This is pretty funny. The Bismarck Tribune says a recent study showing the Bakken maturing. Not many years ago, the Williston Basin was well beyond mature, some might have said, "dead."

So, now, we're maturing. Whatever. But it does mean that the workforce is changing.

By the way, Geoff Simon noted the same thing in his top stories of the week (posted earlier today).

From the linked article, the data points:
  • more long-term jobs to maintain production and fewer temporary workers
  • oil industry impact on state's economy in 2017: $32.6 billion
  • the study suggests that ND would have fewer frack spreads filled by temporary workers and more jobs in production, transportation, and processing of oil and gas
  • 2015: temporary and long-term workers about equal for the first time
  • 2016 - 2018: long-term workers became the larger sector
  • "happened faster than we thought"
Huge implications for housing, school, entertainment, big box stores, hotels/motels, restaurants, bars, etc.

Best Book Ever

Well, perhaps, perhaps not. But it's a great book. If you want to learn a lot about world history, politics, science, human nature, geography, etc, etc., I would have trouble recommending a book better than The Making Of The Atomic Bomb, Richard Rhodes, c. 1986.

Right now I'm reading about the "making" of the modern US Air Force.

Peregrine Acquires Interests In McKenzie County -- March 9, 2019

Press release. Data points:
  • Peregrine Energy acquires producing and non-producing royalties in McKenzie County
  • seller: undisclosed
  • this acquisition: 22 wells "in the heart of the play"
  • Whiting and Hess, the operators
  • Peregrine says both operators are expanding their footprint in the Bakken
One can find out more about Peregrine at this tab, to include:
  • acquiring royalty property in Divide County, press release, March 3,  2018
  • May 6, 2016: a permit for a well in Hay Draw field, McKenize County
  • April 16, 2015: Peregrine Petroleum: has six permits in North Dakota; the previous five were back in the early 1990's; this is the first new permit in North Dakota in two decades for Peregrine:
    • 23920, Peregrine Petroleum, Covered Bridge-Bakken, establish a 1280-acre unit; 4 wells, McKenzie; Covered Bridge is a 3-section field in south central McKenzie County, far from the sweet spots in McKenzie; Peregrine did have some Bakken wells back in the 1990's; there is a huge Birdbear well in this little section that has produced almost 500,000 bbls since 1983; a stripper well now
  • March 13, 2015: Peregrine drilled five (5) Bakken wells many years ago; all very short horizontal wells in the far south-central/west McKenzie County (currently not much activity); they are all still active and producing, albeit very, very little; this is the company's first permit in North Dakota since 1993

Whiting Looking To Expand Footprint -- March 9, 2019

Natural Gas Intelligence has update on Whiting. This information was previously posted from a different source but it's a nice update.  The article is on fracking. Data points:
  • Whiting has moved to what they call "generation 5.0" fracking (I'll get the link later)
  • Generation 5.0 has resulted in Whiting re-designating some Tier 2 locations as Tier 1 locations
  • CEO states that last year (2018), Whiting was able to perform "some of the most innovative and effective completions in the Bakken,” he said. That revolutionized thinking "about what constitutes best practices" in the Williston Basin, including success in the Cassandra area.
  • Whiting is also looking for ways to increase its footprint (think Grail)
  • Whiting is staying above the 88% natural gas re-capture rate (flaring) by focusing on areas where natural gas gathering and processing exist
  • production:
  • 4Q18: 129,960 bopd, up 8% y/y
  • for full CY18, production averaged 127,980 bopd vs 118,120 bopd in 2017 
  • CAPEX for 2019: $820 million
  • plans to drill 132 wells; complete 154, and put 146 into production
Somewhat unclear from the article: "increase its footprint":
  • to this by re-designating Tier 3/Tier 4 areas it controls to Tier 2/Tier 1?
  • acquire additional Bakken acreage?
As discussed on the blog some weeks ago, I'm looking for Whiting or CLR to show interest in QEP's "Helis Grail" oil field.

Easter: about 40 days away.

Easter: a movable feast.

Easter: In 325CE the Council of Nicaea established that Easter would be held on the first Sunday after the first Full Moon occurring on or after the vernal equinox.
From that point forward, the Easter date depended on the ecclesiastical approximation of March 21 for the vernal equinox.
According to the Bible, Jesus Christ's death and resurrection occurred around the time of the Jewish Passover, which was celebrated on the first Full Moon following the vernal equinox.
This soon led to Christians celebrating Easter on different dates. At the end of the 2nd century, some churches celebrated Easter on the day of the Passover, while others celebrated it on the following Sunday.
This year there is a full moon on March 20th, and April 19th.  So the first full moon after March 20th would be April 19th, a Friday this year. Therefore, Easter should fall on April 21. Let's check. It does.

It all works out. And because the earlier full moon was the day before the equiox (March 21), this would make it the "latest" possible Easter. At least one would think.

I could be wrong but  it appears the lunar calendar is more reliable than Punxsutawney Phil.

Week 10: March 3, 2019 -- March 9, 2019

Top international energy story: Norway's $1 trillion wealth fund dumps energy holdings.
Top US energy story: Chevron and ExxonMobil have huge plans for the Permian. Many posts; this was one. Also, here. And, here.

Top US non-energy story: US House of Representatives cedes control to freshmen women.

Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories
  • Williston leaders to address residential housing shortage issue -- still? The boom began in 2007 -- that's almost twelve years ago
  • Legislators propose tapping into Legacy Fund to eliminate future state income tax
  • SD legislature passes Keystone XL bill -- the one that will "cost" protestors; 
  • ND considers easing process for bioremediation of oil spills
Parent-child wells in the Bakken
CLR's Sakakawea Federal wells;
CLR"s Jersey well update;
Staggering MRO wells have been updated
Update of several Burke County wells
CLR reports huge fracks 

Enbridge's Line 3 delayed for at least a year, Minnesota

Fracking strategies in the Bakken

New ND state law defining mineral rights ownership under "the Lake" ruled constitutional
Bakken boom explored in exhibit at MIT in Cambridge, MA

Bakken economy
Legacy Fund deposits continue to decline 

Flashback post
New post 

Staggering MRO Wells Have Been Updated -- March 9, 2019

Link here.

Reminder: with a new month -- don't forget to check the EIA "dashboard" pdfs:

EIA dashboards:

Housing Starts Jump -- January, 2019 Data --March 9, 2019

Link here.
U.S. housing starts jumped 18.6 percent in January, as builders ramped up construction of single-family houses to the fastest pace in eight months.
The Commerce Department said Friday that January groundbreakings occurred at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.23 million. Home construction rebounded sharply from December, when the annual rate was just 1.04 million.
The rebound after December’s plunge fueled optimism among economists that new-home sales will improve in 2019. The low 3.8 percent unemployment rate has provided a stable economy that has increased interest from would-be buyers, but affordability challenges from high prices and tight inventories have restricted sales. Analysts see the possibility for new construction to ease these pressures and increase sales.
Tesla Pick-Up

Link here. "Fun" article to read. The mystery will be solved when Tesla rolls out the pickup.

Wrong Again

I was 1,000% sure that Biden would announce and that he would easily move to the front of the parade:
  • in the polls; and,
  • in fundraising.
But apparently I may be wrong. An AP story out yesterday suggests it won't be all that easy. I think people forget that had it not been for Barack Obama tapping him for VP, Biden would have simply been another political hack who had trouble writing his own speeches. Does anyone see Joe Biden generating arena-excitement like Trump, or even crazy Bernie or Pocahontas?

Biden is clearly the sentimental favorite but how far does sentimentality carry one these days?

By the way, there are rumblings that crazy Bernie, an independent, may not qualify for the democratic nomination. I'm not sure how that plays out but something tells me the DNC will step in to clarify the rules on party affiliation if it looks like Bernie gets close to grabbing the brass ring.

By the way, the linked AP article reminds us how difficult it is for under-financed campaigns to put together the necessary organizations in all 57 states.

Notes To The Granddaughters 

Legacy Fund Deposits Continue To Drop -- February, 2019 Data

Link here.

Slightly less than $38 million in February -- must remember that February is a shorter month -- but still .... I don't recall such a low number in a long time ...