Fracking: Commentary -- December 21, 2020

See this post.

 

From a reader, December 21, 2020:

It may bear close watching to ascertain whether those extraordinarily low numbers for water to frac the Topaz wells are, indeed, accurate. 

While you may well be correct that it is incomplete data, it actually MIGHT prove to be the actual numbers.

If so, another step change/milestone will have been achieved in fracturing technology.

Long story short (I am poor in explaining this stuff), the water used in fracturing is the medium by which elevated pressure 'opens up' the pre-existing microfissures.  In addition, it transports the proppant (sand) which maintains the fissures in an open state.

We all know this already.

However, the incentive for years has been to accomplish these twin goals with as minimal amount of water as necessary. 

The biggest reason - of many - is that the expanding 'tip' of the frac might  encroach offset wells (horizontally) and/or potentially go 'out of zone' vertically which invites much higher volumes of unwanted produced water which is already in the rock.

If operators - and the Bakken boys are absolutely out front - technology-wise in these matters  - have been able to control/contain the fracture geometry to the extent only 2 and a half milluon gallons of water are needed, that would be an incredible achievement.

Through the use of diverters (temporary  blocking plugs), close real time monitoring of frac propagation, and precise pressure and volume management of the pumped water/frac fluid, these guys may have been able to maintain an elevated 'pressure bubble' of, say, >500 psi,  by which the micro fissures will open but the fluid will NOT expand outside the desired geometry (horizontal and vertical) due to diverter/pressure/water volume being tightly and effectively used.

Essentially, WPX may have been able to create an environment wherein a high degree of fracturing and proppant placement has occurred while avoiding a 'too big' an area where frac fluid/water has traveled.

If this has taken place, it will be a HUGE advancement in field development.

Key will be observing future amounts of water used in completions.

Something Tells Me We Don't Have All The Frack Data -- But ... December 21, 2020

The WPX Topaz wells are tracked here. 

See this note: fracking commentary. 

 The wells: file reports are not yet available.

• 37322, loc/A, WPX, Topaz 24HUL, Mandaree, t--; cum 24K over 14 days; fracked 9/26/20 - 9/30/20; and record low frack with 2.4 million gallons of water; 83% water by mass; my hunch is that this well was fracked two or three times in quick succession, and FracFocus only captured one of them as of December 21, 2020;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2020	14	23622	23472	19653	24898	10337	11966

• 37321, loc/A, WPX, Topaz 24HA, Mandaree, t--; cum 24K over 12 days; fracked, really, really, fast,9/26/20 - 9/29/20;  and record low frack with 2.5 million gallons of water; 84% water by mass; my hunch is that this well was fracked two or three times in quick succession, and FracFocus only captured one of them as of December 21, 2020; 23,821 bbls over 12 days extrapolates to 60,000 bbls over 30 days;
  

Pool	Date	Days	BBLS Oil	Runs	BBLS Water	MCF Prod	MCF Sold	Vent/Flare
BAKKEN	10-2020	12	23821	23584	14899	24964	6253	16108

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loc/A and Confidential Status

When wells come off the confidential list / off confidential status, the file report should be available over at the NDIC website. Interestingly enough that is not true for the spectacular WPX Topaz wells. 

Not only are the well files not posted, but the "get well file" button is not even visible for these wells.

Someone's doing a good job of keeping data for these wells confidential. Interestingly enough, they are still listed as loc/A when other wells coming off the confidential list with production and no "IP," are generally listed as drl/A. I've talked about this before, about oil companies using the "small print" to extend the confidentiality of their wells.

December Propane Exports Hit All-Time Highs; Seven Wells Coming Off The Confidential List; WPX Reports Four Huge Topaz Wells -- December 21, 2020

Fracking 101: The WSJ. December 21, 2020. This will be a great article to see how much Ms Jinjoo Lee really knows about fracking. I assume we will see lots of memes without analysis, such as high decline rate.

WTI: drops almost 4%; down $1.87.

QEP: Diamondback Energy will buy QEP; stock deal valued at $2.2 billion

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$47.23	12/21/2020	12/21/2019	12/21/2018	12/21/2017	12/21/2016
Active Rigs	15	54	69	52	42

Seven wells coming off confidential list --

Monday, December 21, 2020:

• 37322, loc/A, WPX, Topaz 24HUL, Mandaree, t--; cum 24K over 14 days;
• 37321, loc/A, WPX, Topaz 24HA, Mandaree, t--; cum 24K over 12 days;
• 36683, loc/A, Hess, BL-Iverson C-155-96-2314H-8, Beaver Lodge, Beaver Lodge, t--;  first production 6/20; cum 103K 10/20;

Sunday, December 20, 2020:

• 37320, loc/A, WPX, Topaz 24-13HZ, Mandaree, t--; first production, 10/10; cum 28K over 12 days;
• 30818, loc/NC, BR, Cleetwood 31-27MBH-A, Elidah, no production data,

Saturday, December 19, 2020:

• 37319, loc/A, WPX, Topaz 24-13HB, Mandaree, t--; first production 10/20; cum 24K over 8 days;
• 30817, loc/NC, BR, Phantom Ship 3C UTFH, Elidah, no production data,

RBN Energy: US propane prices spike; December exports soar to all-time highs. Archived.

It’s been a wild and woolly December in the U.S. propane market. The Mont Belvieu propane price is up by almost 40%, blasting past 70 c/gal on Friday — a level not seen since February 2019, when WTI at Cushing was trading at $57/bbl, $8/bbl above where that price sits today. 

Is it simply cold weather goosing demand? Sure, that’s one factor. But it’s really all about exports. Just as 2020 cold weather finally arrived in U.S. propane country, exports hit the highest levels ever recorded. December Gulf Coast export volumes — 92% of the U.S. total — are up 21% over last month, and 39% above December 2019. So both international and domestic demand are pulling hard on supplies at the same time. No wonder propane prices are soaring. 

We started this series on winter 2020-21 supply/demand in late November by suggesting that there could be a few gotchas still out there that were not being reflected in the forward propane market. Well, we’ve now seen one of those gotchas. But there’s a lot of winter left to go — in fact, the official start of winter is this morning! Today, we review what’s happened so far in propane markets, and what could be coming next.