Thursday, June 3, 2021

First Things First -- Friday, June 4, 2021 -- National Doughnut Day

Doughnuts: I assume one can find a free doughnut somewhere tomorrow. 

But Krispy Kreme is doubling down: a free doughnut for National Doughnut Day and a second free doughnut if you've been vaccinated!

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

MNRL: upgraded. Shares up 7.5% today. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.  

Jobs report, Friday: folks getting excited.

NBA: LeBron -- one and done tonight? 9:30 p.m. CT. Later: done.

Hulu: awesome.

What If We Had A Jobs Recovery -- And No One Came -- Breitbart -- June 3, 2021

From Breitbart News:
Economists are expecting 650,000 jobs for May and an unemployment rate of 5.9 percent. The trouble is that it is hard to know how much to rely on this expectation after last month's catastrophe, when economists had forecast nearly four times the 266,000 jobs actually added in April. It might be tempting to turn to the estimate of the payroll company ADP. But ADP estimated 742,000 jobs last month, slightly closer to the Labor Department's number but still extremely wide of the mark.

Further complicating matters is the ongoing problem of extended and enhanced unemployment benefits. In past bouts of high unemployment, economists have observed that a significant share of those who lose their jobs tend to stay on the unemployment rolls until their benefits are about to run out, typically after 26 weeks. In our highly successful efforts to stave off economic disaster, we increased both the size of the benefits and the length of covered unemployment. As a result, many people who would otherwise be out looking for work are being paid more to stay unemployed and face no looming end of benefits.

That appears to have artificially created a labor shortage even though there are over 15 million Americans currently collecting unemployment checks from one program or another. The Fed's Beige Book featured businesses across all of the central bank's 12 districts saying that they could not find workers to fill jobs, confirming what we've heard from regional Fed manufacturing surveys and the Institute for Supply Management's survey of purchasing managers.

All of this means it is possible that we could get yet another disappointing number tomorrow. On the other hand, we could learn that April was nowhere near as bad as it seemed—if we get a big upward revision to the initial estimate. As we've said before, we're in an unprecedented recovery from an unprecedented crisis. The best thing to expect is a confounding of expectations.
– Alex Marlow & John Carney 
Breitbart News Network

One New Permit; BR Renews Nine Permits -- June 3, 2021

Active rigs:

Active Rigs2012646051

One new permit, #38338:

  • Operator: Resonance Exploration
  • Field: West Roth (Bottineau)
  • Comments:
    • Resonance has a permit for a Resonance Fylling well in SWSW 36-163-79;
    • the well will be sited 1120 FSL and 1280 FWL

Nine permits renewed:

  • BR: one Sandie permit; seven Sequoaifill wells; and one Pullman well, all in McKenzie County

One permit canceled:

  • Whiting: a Littlefield Federal permit in Mountrail Country;

Covid-19 Update -- June 3, 2021

The numbers are not looking good. Vaccinations should be running 1.5 to 3.5 million per day. These are the numbers for the past four days:

  • May 31, 2021: 737,695 (average of two days; CDC did not provide data for Memorial Day, May 31, 2021)
  • June 1, 2021: 737,695 (average of two days; CDC did not provide data for Memorial Day, May 31, 2021)
  • June 2, 2021: 508,652
  • June 3, 2021: 808,036

Again, we should be seeing 1.5 million to 3.5 million vaccinations per day, not 500,000. 

With everything "opening up" we will know in two months how this all plays out in the US before the fall/winter "flu" season begins. And, just think, if the Chinese release a new virus, we can do it all over again. 

CDC link here.

The "honor system" here in Texas:

  • those who have not been fully vaccinated, should still wear their masks;
  • those who have been fully vaccinated, should wear their crown/tiara/headband/headdress with the "Fauci-designated" vaccine code prominently displayed:

Records All Around -- June 3, 2021


  • WTI: one penny short of $69
  • Brent: $71.49

Services PMI: all-time high reported for May, 2021; link here.

Weekly EIA petroleum report, link here:

  • US crude oil in storage decreased by a whopping 5.1 million bbls from the previous week;
  • US crude oil in storage now stands at 479.3 million bbls; about 3% below the higher-than the historical five-year average;
  • US crude oil imports averaged 5.6 million bpd; decreased by 06 million b/d; over the past four weeks imports averaged 6.0 million bpd; 0.7% less than same four-week period a year ago;
  • refiners are operatig at 88.7% of their operable capacity;
  • distillate fuel inventories increased by 3.7 million bbls last week; 8% below their five-year average for this time of the year;
  • jet fuel supplied was up an astounding 138% compared with same four-week period last year;

After the report:

  • WTI: 468.91
  • Brent: $71.36

After Biden speech on infrastructure: Dow turns green

  • Dow had been down as much as 200 points
  • after Biden speech on infrastructure, corporate tax, Dow up 63 points

What's Happening With Natural Gas Being Produced At The Bakken Wellhead -- A Reader Provides An Interesting Observation -- June 3, 2021

This well and the reader's observations will be tracked here.

986 Days -- Fargo, ND -- June 3, 2021

From Vern Whitten yesterday:

How did that happen? This is Block 9 in downtown Fargo.

Vern Whitten Updates Contact Information -- June 3, 2021

Over the years, Vern Whitten has been incredibly with his time and access to his photographs of North Dakota and Minnesota. 

If you have enjoyed his photos on the blog, Mr Whitten would love to hear from you. 

From Mr Whitten yesterday:

A NOTE: Please change my email in your contacts to: Thanks.

Thanks for looking in. 

Vern Vern Whitten Photography
(701) 261-7658

Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- June 3, 2021

Fast and furious.

Feature story: the economic recovery is here; unlike anything you've seen;

Nukes: Bill Gates, Warren Buffett to put first "next generation reactor" in Wyoming;

  • hopefully this will go better than their failed health care initiative.

Saudi Arabia: readies $5 billion bond to fund huge dividend; link to Charles Kennedy;

  • annual dividend: $75 billion
  • almost $20 billion quarterly
  • $5 billion hardly seems enough;

Pipeline expansion:

  • KMI plans $1.2 billion northeast expansion;
  • KMI will acquire Stagecoach Gas Services LLC
  • $1.225 billion
  • Stagecoach: a joint venture between Consolidated Edison and Crestwood Energy Partners
  • four natural gas storage facilities:
  • three pipelines
  • 185 miles of pipeline
  • storage capacity of 41 billion cubic feet
  • $1.225 billion / 185 miles = $6.7 million / mile
  • pipelines interconnect o major interstate gas pipelines, including:
    • KMI subsidiary Tennessee Gas Pipeline (TGP)
    • TGP carries natural gas from Louisiana, GOM, south Texas to the northeast


  • Southwestern goes all in on gas production with $2.7 billion Haynesville acquisition;
  • link here;
  • previously posted;


  • MDU pipeline: FERC certificate for ND natural gas pipeline project; press release;
  • WBI Energy, the pipeline subsidiary of MDU;
  • North Bakken Expansion project
    • expansion project to transport 250 million cubif feet of natural gas per day from the Bakken
    • 62 miles of 24-inch natural gas pipeline
    • 20 miles of 12-inch natural gas pipeline
    • a new compressor station
  • $260 million
  • 260/82 = $3.2 million / mile of pipeline
  • entry: new Elkhorn Creek compression station, southeast of Watford City
  • runs pretty much NNE to Portal, ND, on Canadian border
  • map at this link; previously posted;
  • by the way, this was huge; see SeekingAlpha note;


Discovery-Warner Bros:

Culture: retrospective on nation's first building built specifically as a mosque;

  • the nation's first, not just the first in the state
  • site: Ross, ND, a few miles west of Stanley, ND;
  • link here; and, link here;

Historians state the Ross community also had the oldest known Muslim group for organized prayer in America.

The primary ethnic group in that area came from Syria, starting with a pioneer named Hassen Juma, who settled on 160 acres in 1899. Nearby was Sam Omar, and by 1902, 20 other families had followed their path from Bire (Berrie) and Rafid, Syria.

In 1929, the residents built a Jumah mosque which is said to be the nation’s first. Accounts differ, but it’s generally agreed that other Muslims around the country organized their mosques in rented spaces. The mosque at Ross is said to be the first built specifically as a house of worship.

The building itself was not an attractive one. It was long and low, sunk into the ground. There’s a reason for this; it was intended to be the basement of a structure yet to come. Unfortunately, the depression hit soon after it was built, and the transformation never happened. The building was used as late as the 1960s – by then, intermarriage had led many to join Christian churches.

Whatever happened to the refinery proposed for Trenton? Now something new.
link here;

  • conditional use permit approved by Williams County commissioners
  • plant would produce 100 million gallons of renewable fuels per year
  • source: soybean and canola oil
  • 87-acre parcel in Buford Township
  • near Savage Service's Trenton rail port
  • SAFuels X Production Facility
  • facility to be built by AIC Energy Corporation, owned by John F. Melk, Las Vegas, NV
  • SAFuels X: recently received a $221,000 grant from ND Agricultural Products Utilization Commission
  • in aviation fuel mode, the product would be a blended 1:1 plant:mineral jet fuel; would meet all criteria for existing military jets without need to change the aircraft
  • still needs DEQ review and approval
  • incoming vegetable oil feedstocks and outgoing jet fuels will arrive/depart via Savage Services;
  • aviation fuel: 70 rail cars/day
  • diesel: 35 rail cars/day
  • initial capacity: 10 rail cars/day of incoming vegetable oil, or about 273,000 gallons per day (at 42 gallons per bbl = 6,500 bbls/day

Blue hydrogen:

Brent: $71.42. 

Tacky: is it just me or is it time to move on with regard to fashion? By the way, in the past year, have we ever seen any of these guys wearing masks?

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs2012646051

Two wells coming off the confidential list: Thursday, June 3, 2021: 40 for the month, 61 for the quarter, 142 for the year:

  • 37521, drl/NC, WPX, Dakota 1-36HB, Mandaree, first production, 4/21; t--; cum 33K 4/21;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 37376, drl/NC, CLR, Rodney 5-29H, Cedar Coulee, no production data;

RBN Energy: E&Ps post strong profits as pandemic-impacted oil and gas prices rebound.

Nearly 300 million COVID vaccine doses have been administered in the U.S., and normal life is returning to public places across America. Actual fans are replacing cardboard facsimiles in ballpark seats, corner pubs and corner offices are filling up, and family gatherings now feature hugs instead of half-inch squares on a Zoom screen. And another powerful antidote, in the form of higher oil prices, has spurred a significant revival in the fortunes of the pandemic-battered upstream oil and gas industry. The spring-of-2020 crude oil price crash hit the E&P sector like a tsunami, shattering capital and operating budgets, upending drilling plans, eviscerating equity valuations, and raising concerns about whether some companies could generate sufficient cash flow to keep the lights on. Remarkable belt-tightening allowed most producers to survive, and the swift rise of oil prices beginning last fall dispelled the COVID clouds.  But the recovery in profitability and cash flow generation was slow. Today, we review the dramatic surge in E&P profits and cash flows in the first quarter of 2021.