Rivian, Lucid, The Cybertruck -- August 18, 2024

Locator: 48451EVS.

Some months ago, I said I wasn't going to follow EVs any more except when there were some particularly newsworthy stories. What can I say? The EV story is absolutely fascinating. 

The most fascinating story this past week: Rivian shuts down Amazon van production due to shortage of parts. The supply chain shortage excuse is getting a bit long in the tooth. What bothered me most was the fact there was no transparency: 

• what parts?
• are the parts unique to the Amazon van, or does it include parts found across Rivian's platforms?
• how did it happen?
• expected date to begin production?

And then this: 

Rivian has amassed a surplus of the delivery vans at the plant that are awaiting delivery to Amazon. The carmaker has a deal to supply the company with 100,000 vans by the end of the decade, and about 15,000 are already in service in the U.S. 

Amassed a surplus of the delivery vans at the plant that are awaiting delivery to Amazon. 

Why in the world would a start-up "amass a surplus of delivery vans" apparently already sold to Amazon and expected to arrive during their slow period. 

“We’re aware that Rivian encountered short-term production issues this month, and we don’t expect it to impact us,” an Amazon spokesperson said in an emailed statement.  

Rivian’s vans account for a fraction of the overall fleet used to deliver packages for Amazon, which taps gig workers who drive their own vehicles, as well as traditional couriers such as UPS.

Rivian Chief Financial Officer Claire McDonough has said the carmaker expects Amazon to take fewer deliveries during the fourth quarter, consistent with the online merchant’s seasonal pattern when it focuses on the holiday sales rush. 

"... don't expect it to impact us." Why wouldn't they simply say the impact won't affect them at all.

There just seem to be too many "excuses." 

Two thoughts: either this becomes a non-story (most likely) or there's more to this story than either Rivian or Amazon are letting on.

So, what else with regard to Rivian? This link seems to be clickbait with all the ads, but it turns out to be quite a good article. One wonders to what extent AI was used to write the article. By the way, when a reporter acknowledges that AI was used in writing the article, the reporter is telling us the story was written by ChatGPT and was proofread by the writer before posting.

Apparently the match-ups between Rivian and Mercedes and others didn't work because of issues with incompatible electronic control units (ECUs). Rivian wants to keep everything in-house -- the Apple model -- whereas the hoped-for partners did not. Which, of course, on the surface doesn't make sense. That would seem to be one of the things that would make Rivian appealing.

My hunch: like Apple, the Rivian folks are very, very difficult with whom to work, unable to compromise, which fits the Apple narrative. 

From the linked article: 

For Rivian, maintaining control over its network architecture isn’t just important—it’s essential. The company’s entire strategy revolves around having a tightly integrated system where every component works in harmony. The level of control allows Rivian to offer features like seamless over-the-air updates and a unified user experience, which are key selling points for the brand. Much like how Rivian is straying from adding Apple CarPlay or Android Auto to the interior, the brand experience is paramount. 

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Lucid

Benzinga has an interesting take on Lucid. Link here.

With regard to clickbait, this site is even worse, but we press on. 

 

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Investing

Obviously I don't hold any positions in any of the EV companies, or any auto companies at all for that matter. 

Having said that, two observations:

Tesla is not a car company. It's an energy company specializing in batteries and regulatory credit sales. 

I may need to re-think investing in Rivian. Seriously.

Rivian and Apple: lots and lots of similarities. 

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Southlake, TX

Lots and lots of Teslas in the Southlake, Texas, neighborhoods, and Southlake is not even the swankiest suburb in the state.

Tesla sedans everywhere and now Cybertrucks. They are huge. They seem like the perfect vehicle for fighting wars in Iraq, if the Mideast would a) put in a few thousand charging units; and, b) pave over the sand so the incredibly heavy Cybertrucks could actually off-road. 

Cybertrucks are clearly bought to "show off." I guess it's called "prestige" these days. Whatever.

Exhibit A. 

Benzinga said this, not me:

Ford To Add Over 15,00 Tesla Superchargers To Its EV Network -- October 30, 2023

Locator: 45863INV.

For investors:

• three major EV manufacturers that would be considered "American": Ford, GM, and Tesla;
• two of them have announced decisions to delay EV manufacturing
• that leaves one (let's check the math: 3 - 2 = 1)
• one of the three: primary business -- batteries

From today:

Ticker F: down another 1.5% today, trading about $9.80.

General consensus: the UAW contract was not good for Ford. Details for Stellantis yet to be reported. Contract with GM still be negotiation.

Water -- Fracking Vs Putting Out A Tesla Plaid Fire -- July 12, 2021

20 tons of water = 128 bbls of water = 5,376 gallons of water. 

From ZeroHedge, 20 to 75 tons to put out a Tesla Plaid fire, a steady stream for ninety minutes.

ICE single vehicle fire? three tons.

A single frack:

• 41,586 bbls of water (#27313, Hess EN-Eva).
• 217,831 bbls of water (#36000, Hess AN-Mogen Trust).

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Apple

Mac shipments continue to rise: from MacRumors. 

Shipments of Macs increased by almost 10 percent in the second quarter of 2021 compared to the same time last year, as the surge in demand for computers continued.

... worldwide shipments of personal computers, including desktops, notebooks, and workstations, reached 83.6 million units in the second quarter of 2021. This is an increase of 13.2 percent from the second quarter of 2020, in spite of component shortages across the industry that constrained supply. 

... but the rate of growth is slowing ...  Apple remained the fourth-largest PC vendor, tied with Acer, surpassed only by Lenovo, HP, and Dell, of which each had over double the number of shipments compared to Apple. 

Apple is set to hold its third quarter earnings call on July 27.

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Nicknames

According to sources, the Washington, DC, NFL football team has ruled out "Warriors" as a possible replacement for its previous nickname, the Redskins.

It is also noted that "Wallflowers" has not been ruled out. Nor has "Wimps." Or "Wafflers" [see first comment]. Bidin' their time until they come up with a suitable slate to consider.

Lithium: A Bit Of Fragmented History, Tesla, And Nevada -- November 1, 2020

Note: this post is very fragmented, but I was curious about the history of lithium mining in the US. Various internet sources have not been updated and continue to post outdated (and incorrect) information, as noted below. If this is important to you, go to better sources. This was for my own benefit to help me understand the history and background of lithium mining. 

This all started when Dakota Lithium led me to Battery Mineral Resources Panamint Valley. This was not easy to find. Archived.

Lithium Corporation of America, from wiki. I have no idea how accurate or dated this is. Note the dates, going back to 1985.

Lithium Corporation of America is a mining company which mined lithium-bearing spodumene and pegmatite ores near Bessemer City, Gaston County, North Carolina, United States and in the Black Hills of South Dakota. 

In 1985, Lithium Corporation of America was acquired by FMC Corporation, formerly known as Food Machinery and Chemical Corporation. At the time it was acquired, the company was the world's largest producer of lithium. FMC's lithium operations are now known as FMC Lithium. [No longer accurate; continue reading.]

FMC Corporation (Food Machinery Corporation), from wiki

FMC is an American chemical manufacturing company headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, which originated as an insecticide producer and later diversified into other industries.

In 1941 at the beginning of WWII, the company received a contract to design and build amphibious tracked landing vehicles for the United States Department of War, and afterwards the company continued to diversify its products. FMC employs 7,000 people worldwide, and had gross revenues of US$2.8 billion in 2017. 

In 2018, FMC was planning to spin off its lithium segment. Link here.  In a press release, dated July 26, 2018, FMC Corporaiton said that its lithium materials business will be known at Livent Corporation.

June 22, 2020, Motley Fool:

• more than enough lithium; a commodity; volatile pricing
• Livent Corporation: LTHM
• two main lithium componds
• lithium carbonate
• from brine deposits; namely those in South America (think Livent)
• lithium hydroxide
• produced from rock deposits; primarily those in western Australia
• Albermarle (ALB): world's leading lithium producer

Tesla, Reuters, September 24, 2020, link here.

The lede from the linked Reuters article:Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk told shareholders on Tuesday, September 22, 2020, Tesla has secured rights to 10,000 acres in Nevada where it aims to produce lithium from clay deposits using a process developed internally. 

The move would make Tesla the first company in the world to commercially produce the white metal from clay.

Lithium is produced either from brine, commonly found in South America (think Livent), or spodumene hard rock, usually in Australia (think Albermarle).

From the linked Reuters article:

Tesla Inc's plan to produce lithium for electric vehicle batteries close to its Nevada Gigafactory faces stark challenges from the outset, including an onerous permitting process, uncertain access to water and questions about unproven methodologies.

And more:

Nevada already has several lithium clay projects under development, including one from Lithium Americas Corp (LAC.TO) that has been seeking federal permit approval for more than a decade and another from Ioneer Ltd (INR.AX).

"Mining lithium is very challenging," said Pedro Palandrani of the Global X Lithium & Battery Technology ETF which holds shares in Tesla and lithium producers. "If Tesla really wants to fly solo, we're talking about four to five years to really see any kind of lithium production."

Back to Nevada:

Tesla’s plan also would likely require substantial amounts of water, forcing the company to battle with cattle ranchers for access to underground reservoirs in the arid state.

Albemarle Corp operated the only existing U.S. lithium mine at a site roughly 200 miles (322 km) north of Las Vegas until it shut it down last month (August, 2020).

Operational since the late 1960s, the site produced less than 5,000 tonnes of lithium per year, a relatively small amount and far less than Tesla would need.

Worldwide lithium mine production from 2010 to 2019 in metric tons at this link. From that link: 

Lithium is widely present worldwide, but due to its high reactivity it does not naturally occur in its elemental form. 

Chile and Australia have the first and second largest lithium reserves, respectively, in the world. 

There are several key players involved in the lucrative global lithium mining business. Based on supply, Albemarle is the leading lithium company in the world. 

Based on market capitalization, however, Tianqi Lithium was the leading lithium producing company in 2019. 

Looking to the future, lithium producers have a strong outlook, as the total worldwide lithium demand is expected to increase significantly in the coming years. 

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Top Ten Biggest Lithium Mines In The World

From Mining Technology, updated May 28, 2020.

Western Australia: five of the world's biggest lithium mines.

1. Sonora Lithium Project, 243.8 metric tons. Sonora, Mexico. JV, Mexico/Chinese. LCE. Open-pit. Environmental disaster.
2. Thacker Pass Lithium Project, 179.4 metric tons. Humboldt County, NV. Lithiums Americas. Pre-feasibility study completed in August, 2018. Phase one is expected to be commissioned in 2022; phase two, 2026. LCE. Open-pit. Environmental disaster.
3. Wodgina Lithium Project, 151.94 metric tons. Australia. Mineral Resources. JV with Albermarle. Spodumene. Open-pit, Environmental disaster. See screenshot below.
4. Pilgangoora Lithium-Tantalum Project, 108.2 metric tons. Australia. Pilbara Minerals. Spodumene. Open-pit. Environmental disaster.
5. Earl Grey Lithium Project, 94.2 metric tons. Australia. Kidman Resources, Chile (Covalent Lithium). Spodumene. Unsaid but probably open-pit. Expected to be commissioned in 2020.
6. Greenbushes Lithium Project, 86.4 metric tons. Australia. Chinese. Second and third processing plant were to be commissioned in 2019. Unsaid, but likely to be open-pit.
7. Whabouchi Lithium Project, 36.6 metric tons. Central Quebec, Canada. Canadian mining company. open-pit and underground mining. Production is was to have begun June, 2020.
8. Altura Mining's Pilgangoora Lithium, 34.2 metric tons. Australia. Open pit. Two stages. First stage commissioned in early 2019; second phase could begin in 2022, or thereabouts.
9. Goulamina Lithium Project, 31.2 metric tons. Southern Mali, operated by an Australian company. Open-cut. Currently carrying out the definitive feasibility study. FID on the project is expected to be taken in second half of 2020.
10. Arcadia Lithium Project, 26. 9 metric tons. Zimbabwe. Operated by an Australian mining company. Spodumene. The DFS was completed in November, 2018; currently under construction; expected to be commissioned in second half of 2020.

Open-pit lithium mine. Compare with a Bakken eco-pad.

Lithium -- October 1, 2020

Re-posting:

Lithium:

• one will start seeing a lot of stories on lithium; shortages, high prices, etc. But one thing remains: at the end of the day there will be a surplus of lithium. It may be expensive until supply and demand even out, but there won't be any shortage.
• major supply shortage; link to Tsvetana Paraskova;
• lithium recovery from oil and gas produced after (including the Bakken); link here to ACS Energy Letters;
• shale boom could fuel batteries; link to Earth: The Science Behind the Headlines; 
• lithium: world class deposit, link to investingnews; 
• Nevada is home to the only operating lithium mine in the United States which is located in Clayton Valley, Esmeralda County. The mine has been in operation since 1967, employs 85 people, and produces lithium carbonate from evaporation ponds which concentrate the lithium.
  

Tesla: one step ahead; link here;

• failed to reach a deal with Cypress Development Corp., which focuses on extracting lithium from clay deposits in southwestern Nevada;
• Tesla has secured access to 10,000 acres of lithium-rich clay deposits in Nevada, and plans to use a new, “very sustainable way” of extracting the metal.
• announcement followed pledges from the car and battery maker to produce a cheaper, lower-cost battery, build a $25,000 electric car and eventually produce 20 million vehicles a year.
• also announced deal with Glencore for cobalt; huge need for cobalt; cobalt may be the "big problem," but lithium, probably not;
  

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Apple

iPad: new iPad Air "available in October." Apparently one can order it now, but no delivery date yet established? Base model, wi-fi only, 64 GB, $599; 256 GB, $749. Seeing all the apps that 6-y/o Sophia "needs" on her iPad for school, I highly recommend springing for the 256-GB model.   Pencil essential.

With regard to connectivity, I've learned to "do without." Of the three mobile devices I carry when traveling (an iPhone, an iPad, and a MacBook Air), only the iPhone has cellular in addition to wi-fi. One can find free wi-fi almost anywhere -- although more of a pain with "everything closed due to Chinese flu"; while driving I tend not to use my iPad or my laptop.

MacBook: if you need it for work, get the MacBook Pro 16", but for home use, college, or graduate degree, get the MacBook Air. 

If one travels a lot for business, one may be better off with the MacBook Air. My hunch: the MacBook Air will meet the needs for most business men and women. MacBook Air starts at $899. Buying "up" is a fairly significant jump in price: $1,199. With the latter one gets 512GB SSD storage vs only 256GB SSD storage in the less expensive model. With the "cloud" and peripheral hard drives, I'm not sure you have to have more built-in storage, but it is nice. It's hard to believe but I have only 125 GB on my "old" MacBook Air and it's close to maxed out even after "severe" management of storage.

College student: if your college student says a "MacBook Pro" is a must, a better deal: a MacBook Air, an iPad, and and  Pencil. Your college student will thank you.

A Very, Very Bad Week For EVs And Hydrogen Vehicles -- September 22, 2020

Nikola: the company's stock falls 25% when CEO and founder abruptly resigns under SEC investigation.

TSLA: falls 7% on its biggest day -- on "battery day" when we learn:

• nothing new of consequence;
• new battery did not make an appearance; and,
• EVs still a luxury buy for rich people;

Some are suggesting Nikola had its five minutes of fame; Tesla had its 45 minutes of fame. The way it looks now, only with government mandates will EVs become a "thing" any time soon (i.e., my investing lifetime).  I've read a lot of social media content and it all comes down to this: those that are interested in buying a Tesla, it's their second or third vehicle; but not their primary vehicle, and in more cases than note, their third vehicle. Much could be written but most has been previously said.

Tesla And Regulatory Credits -- September 8, 2020

 Yesterday, I posted a pop quiz, asking what was wrong with a certain story. This was the post:

I almost got sucked into this story. 

Pop quiz, quick: tell me what's wrong with this story. Here's the nub of the story. What's wrong with this?

He notes that the stock price is implying anywhere from a 40% to 110% market share based upon the average selling price. At its current average selling price of $57,000 and assuming 10.9 million car sales by 2030, that implies 42% market share, Trainer says. Tesla trades at 159 times forward earnings.

This is the problem with that story. Unless I'm misreading it, and it seems I'm not -- based on what is published it seems fairly straightforward: the "analyst' is basing Telsa's earnings on automobile production. Again, this is what the "analyst" wrote:

He notes that the stock price is implying anywhere from a 40% to 110% market share based upon the average selling price. At its current average selling price of $57,000 and assuming 10.9 million car sales by 2030, that implies 42% market share, Trainer says. Tesla trades at 159 times forward earnings.

The "analyst" falls into the same trap most analysts fall into when it comes to Tesla: they don't understand what business Tesla is in. It's the same when folks compare Tesla's market cap with the combined market cap of all other automobile manufacturers combined. That's the problem: Tesla is not an automobile manufacturer. Sure, they make automobiles, but that's not how they make money.

This is how Tesla makes money: from hope, batteries, and regulatory credits.

Tesla makes the most money from selling and leasing electric vehicles, solar energy systems and energy storage products. In addition, Tesla also makes money from selling electricity generated from its own solar energy systems. Best selling energy storage products such as the Powewall and Powepack are another line of Tesla’s revenue generators. These are the typical money-making machines for Tesla. But what you may not know is that Tesla has another source of income that is contributing hundreds of millions of dollars, or perhaps close to a billion dollar in 2020, to the company’s coffers. And that revenue source, which has been generated literally out of thin air, comes from the so-called “Regulatory Credits.”

Not only is Tesla making money on "regulatory credits," but their competitors in the automobile manufacturing business are losing money on "regulatory credits." The latter are paying Tesla for their excess "regulatory credits.

Random Note On Tesla's Batteries -- December 28, 2019

How good are Tesla's batteries?

• high-end Tesla batteries can be recharged up to 5,000 times and last a million miles.

Another way to look at this:

• 12,000 miles per year
• 300 miles between charges
• 12,000 / 300 = 40 charges per year
• 5,000 charges / 40 charges per year = 125 years.

Forty charges per year, or about one full charge per week. 

I've always said Tesla was a battery company disguised as a car company.

Tesla's gigafactory in China, from two days ago:

Tesla has built a new factory in China and intends to build its electric cars for the Asian market at the new facility. Reuters reported earlier this week that Tesla had secured a 10-billion-yuan loan in China. Tesla's stock has roared to record highs this month, and gained another 1.3% Thursday to close at $430.94.

From wiki:

Tesla Gigafactory 3 is a factory currently under construction in Shanghai, China, by Tesla, Inc.

The facility will produce battery cells along with Tesla Model 3 and Tesla Model Y cars, at an initial production rate target of 250,000 electric cars per year.

The Shanghai regional government approved the agreement to build the production facility in July 2018, and a long-term lease was signed for about 210 acres of land in October 2018.

Construction began in December 2018 with the installation of secure fencing and site offices. The General Assembly Building was nearly complete by August, 2019, and manufacturing line equipment was being installed for both batteries and automobiles.

News reports in August noted production could start as early as November 2019, and CNBC reports that Tesla is expected to manufacture more than 6,000 vehicles at Gigafactory 3 by year-end 2019.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

Gasoline Demand Data Has Been Posted -- Recession "Just Around The Corner" -- July 31, 2019

Link here.

Funniest video all week: liberal Baltimore reporter telling Trump to come to Baltimore to look for himself ... and this is what they saw ... link here with video.

Rats: from wiki: it would be nice to see a similar chart for the rat population in Baltimore; my hunch? They correlate.

Population: from wiki, history of Baltimore's population. Never did hit a million. Close in 1960. Now trending toward 500,000. Stopped growing in the 60s; plummets in the 80s:

Huge "thank you" to Don who sends me some wonderful links, including these two on Baltimore.

By the way, the population data for Baltimore looks a lot like that of New Orleans. 

Shanghaied: from zerohedge:

For a company that has already racked up a tab of over $1 billion in losses this year, what's another $323 million amongst friends?

This was quite possibly the attitude the company took when agreeing to pay China 2.23 billion yuan - about $323 million - in taxes every single year as part of their deal with local authorities to build their factory on the outside of Shangha.

Tesla has also committed to drop about 14.08 billion yuan - or about $2 billion - in capex on the plant over the next five years, according to its lease. While the point of the Shanghai Gigafactory was to avoid tariffs and keep prices down, we're not sure how an annual tax requirement of well over a quarter of a billion dollars is going to make things easier for Musk.

Tesla solar: a very, very dim future? But doesn't his cousin own it?

Notes From All Over -- Part 1 -- July 9, 2019

DAPL: The activist is not the man who says the river is dirty. The activist is the man who cleans up the river.-- Ross Perot.

Reminder: next Director's Cut scheduled to be released at 3:00 p.m. CT, July 15, 2019 -- that would be next Monday. 

Wow, there was a lot of news today. I will run through it quickly and come back to it if a) I find time; b) it still interests me; and, c) has any relevancy to the Bakken. In other words, unlikely that I will return to this stuff.

First things first. Time to turn the music on. We will start with Charlie Rich, my current "go-to" favorite. Later: now it's Gypsy by Fleetwood Mac -- always reminds me of our dating days in Los Angeles: May's favorite group at the time; getting trapped in the Velvet Turtle in Los Angeles on Chinese New Year's Eve; St Elsewhere.

EPD - ETP: to the Supreme Court of Texas.

The case has been viewed by the Texas legal community as the most important business dispute between two Texas companies since Joe Jamail’s epic Pennzoil-Texaco victory in the 1980s, which yielded a $10 billion bill for Texaco.

The court hinges on a "he-said, he-said."

No agreement was signed for a lucrative joint venture; just a handshake. EPD eventually went with Enbridge, jilting ETP. ETP says the oral agreement should suffice. Not a lot of money involved in the big scheme of things, I suppose, for the parties involved, but if the Supreme Court of Texas agrees that oral agreements can stand ...

EPD: increases its dividend to 44 cents/common unit, to be paid August 13, 2019. This distribution, which represents a 2.3 percent increase over the distribution declared with respect to the second quarter of 2018, is the partnership’s 60th consecutive quarterly distribution increase. Earlier today there was a very, very negative article on investing in the oil sector. Whatever.

EPD: continues to prove why its such an excellent dividend stock -- Motley Fool. Currently yields 6%. In a down market today, EPD rose.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

ENB: commences open season for Canada's Express Pipeline. Huge deal.

The shippers will be able to carry oil from Hardisty, Alberta, to Express Pipeline LLC pipeline, which operates the portion of the Express Pipeline in the United States. Per the company, the shipper will appreciate this open season since the pipeline bottleneck problem prevents transportation of sufficient oil from the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin.

NOG: analysts see a huge move (up or down) for NOG soon; analysts don't know which way NOG will move, but the trading pattern suggests something's "up." Zacks. I've made my decision but I won't say anything until after earnings report for 2Q19 is released.

WTI: nice little move. Up 84 cents now (7:21 p.m. CT) after API report today. Trading above $58. Could hit $60 again by the end of summer. Another huge development.

Tesla: prices could surge -- Musk. June, 2019, EV sales here.

Is this why Elon Musk said prices could surge? We will get back to this one. This is a big story. From Bloomberg, the US and the EU are getting "more anxious" about EV battery component shortages.

Or this: eleven autonomous driving software engineers have left Tesla over the past few weeks.

For Tesla newbies: I can't find it now, but there's a marketing term for what Musk Melon does. Whenever things look bad, he makes an outlandish statement to drive sales. With lots of bad news today, Musk Melon did it again: "Buy a Tesla now, folks, because this autumn the prices are going to surge."

Dell, Montana: population 35.

Basically a gas station and a general store along the side of the highway. But get this: out in the middle of nowhere this gas station/general store has four EV charging stations. Not sure if they still work. Link here (if you don't believe me, google "ev charging station dell montana." Screenshot:

Global economy: bearish signs. Consider the source. For these guys, it's always a bearish outlook.

Ecuador - CVX: Ecuador drops the last case against CVX. CVX today? Flat.

Hope springs eternal: we mentioned this yesterday; no link then. Here's the link. 

“I have no doubt in my mind that U.S. shale will peak, plateau and then decline like every other basin in history,” Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said in Vienna this week, as reported by Bloomberg. Apparently alfalfa did not get the memo. See next entry. Alfalfa is going to be waiting a long time for the US shale sector to "peak, plateau, and then decline."

The memo. Link here. 

TransMountain: could be TransAlaska. Link at Calgary Herald. 

For my son-in-law in Portland: a 1971 Ford Bronco story.

The Ford Bronco holds an important place in automotive history.

After World War II, GIs came back to America, bought Army surplus Jeeps, and created a new sport—off-roading.

The Jeeps were small and uncomfortable. In the mid-1960s, Ford developed a more spacious vehicle to fill this niche—the Bronco.

[Notable competition at the time included the Jeep Wagoneer.]

A durable and reliable four-wheel drive truck, you could take it camping or to the mountains. [Ford built the Bronco from the mid-1960s to the mid-1990s; the company recently announced it would launch a new iteration in 2020.]

Caps and hats: a reader suggests a Democrat alternative to the MAGA cap.

MDU / Las Vegas: mega-resort contract.

MDU Resources Group, Inc. announced today that its subsidiaries, Bombard Electric, LLC, and Bombard Mechanical, LLC, have been awarded contracts for electrical and mechanical construction at Resorts World Las Vegas, a mega-resort under construction on the Las Vegas Strip.

Bucket list: we've talked about this before -- I don't have a "bucket list."

I'm retired. A "bucket list" sounds like a "jobs list." I don't have plans for the weekend; I don't know what I'm doing tomorrow; I don't even know what I will be doing three hours from now. I thought about that on the long drive from Montana back to Texas this past weekend, a two-night, three-day trip. We had no plans on the way back from Montana, no "bucket list" to complete.

But when we passed the "opal capital of America" it dawned on me: I had a "how 'bout" moment. Instead of a "bucket list," I have a "how 'bout" philosophy. When driving down the road if I pass something that looks interesting, I saw to 5-year-old Sophia, "how 'bout stopping at the opal capital of America?" If she says "yes," the turn signal goes on and we leave the highway for a "how 'bout" moment.

Enterprise: best rental car company in the business. Bar none.

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Back To School After Her Montana Vacation

Main Highway South Of Trenton, ND, To Be Closed For Several Days -- April 22, 2019 -- Earth Day? -- T+10, Part 2 -- Chariots On Fire

Road closure: you are on your own --

 "There will be no signed detours posted, and drivers will have to find an alternate route."

The main highway south of Trenton will be closed as of tomorrow morning and will remain closed several days. Routine maintenance on a BNSF railroad crossing south of Trenton -- the Marley railroad crossing -- will take a couple of days. Again,

"There will be no signed detours posted, and drivers will have to find an alternate route."

I think the only alternate is County Road 5 south of State Highway 2. Unless you are riding a horse.

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Shore Notes

Social security: it's hard to follow the numbers, but apparently by the time I'm in a nursing home, SSA will only be able to pay 80% of benefits. Okay. No link. I'm sure the story is easy to find almost anywhere. SSA puts out an annual report. Will you still love me when I'm 94?

When I'm Sixty-Four, Beatles
Earth Day: I must have missed it. Didn't see a thing. Normally it's a big deal, but apparently not this year -- didn't see the usual folks out picking up trash along the Texas highways. Still using plastic straws at McDonald's and Starbucks.

Chariots on fire. Wow, I haven't used "chariots on fire" in a long time, but apparently Tesla is investigating after a Model appears to catch on fire. Video on the net. No link. I'm sure it's easy to find the story. Model S parked in a covered garage. SpaceX had an anomaly over the weekend also; resulted in a fire with smoke seen from miles around. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

TSLA: down $10.51 (-3.85%) at the close; lost another ... drum roll .. twenty cents in after-hour trading.

Oil (over at oilprice):

• WTI: $65.77
• OPEC basket: $70.81
• Brent crude: $74.04
• Fitzsimmons says much of COP's oil is priced at Brent crude
• Texas Gulf Coast Light: $60.65
• South Texas Light:$55.50
• West Texas Light: not yet trading?
• Williston sweet (four days delay): $53
• Oklahoma sweet (19 hours delay): $61.75

The Next Big Thing -- Making Money / Losing Money On EV Batteries -- July 23, 2018

Winners: entrepreneurs; agile retailers; Waste Management; shysters/scam artists
Losers: automobile manufacturers; early adopters; EV owners

Links:

• where three million EV batteries will go when they retire
• the rise of EVs could leave us with a big battery waste problem
• rise of EVs pose battery recycling challenge 

These were the data points from the first link that caught my attention:

• over time, EVs will need to be re-charged more often
• over time, EV's mileage range on a charge will decrease
• the average EV family car will need battery change at 10 years
• EV taxis and buses will need to be change at four years

Replacing batteries in EVs is not a trivial issue, both in time and cost.

The Market, Energy, Political Page, T+25 -- June 25, 2018

Best Video Of The Day 

Update

Later, 6:59 p.m. CDT: see this post.

Original Post

 A reader sent me this. It could not have been more timely. My youngest sister's family recently acquired a Corgi (with papers?). It was a puppy not long ago and is now pretty well grown. Corgis are natural herders, and their Corgi is constantly herding all the folks who visit the house. It's quite humorous to watch Tucker, the Corgi, herd humans and he does herding much, much better than this one.

My grandfather raised sheep in northwestern South Dakota and I spent a fair amount of time on his land. I do not recall sheep ever "attacking" or "chasing" anything. I've already watched this video several times and have not yet gotten tired of it.

Goats? Completely different. They will definitely chase you. 

Obama

As good an article as any on the whereabouts of former President Obama. I have no idea how much is true and how much is relevant (probably very little) but's an interesting read. 

Tesla

From an earlier post:

SolarCity: An Albatross:

• Tesla owns SolarCity
• the $2 billion purchase came with almost $3 billion in debt
• "huge chunk" of interest coming due soon
• [again, typical article: "huge chunk" not defined; and date coming due was not provided] 
• Tesla doesn't guarantee repayment; SolarCity does (this is called non-recourse debt for Tesla)
• but, the SolarCity debt affects Tesla's overall credit rating and impacts borrowing costs
• Tesla has $10 billion of total debt outstanding; $3 billion is non-recourse, mostly Solar City debt
• without SolarCity, Tesla's borrowing ratings might be closer to 5.9% (single B rating)
• with SolarCity rating, a B- rating/Caa1 rating, closer to 7.2%
• story at Fortune through YahooFinance

This story has been previously posted, but more background at this linked story:

• SolarCity acquired by Tesla in 2016 for $2.6 billion
• Tesla will close 13 - 14 solar installation facilities in nine states (three regions)
• CA, TX, AZ,
• MD, NJ, DE
• NY, CT, NH,
• SolarCity will end its partnership with 800 Home Depot stores -- generated about half of the division's sales volume (wow)
• in line with 9% workforce reduction that was announced last week
• "We continue to expect that Tesla's solar and battery business will be the same size as automotive over the long term." -- Elon Musk
• the company installed 76 MW of solar in 1Q18; a 64% decline from 214 MW installed two  years ago (1Q16)
• more at the link

ATT Wins -- June 12, 2018 -- No Conditions

Updates

Later, 8:15 p.m.:

Original Post

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

ATT didn't just win, ATT hit a grand slam according to analysts. The judge set no conditions and effectively told the government to not even thing about appealing. Information from Fox News; no link.

• T after-hours: down 2%. [Later, quickly recovers.]
• TWX after-hours: up 4.5%

Who owns CNN? Turner Broadcasting. Who owns Turner Broadcasting? Time Warner. ATT.

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Tesla

Tesla to cut 9% of work force across the board. Shares surge.

But I think this is the bigger story: Business Insider is reporting that Tesla will stop selling its solar panels and battery packs at Home Depot.

• Tesla will not renew its agreement with Home Depot to sell solar panels and battery packs at the retailer's stores
• most Tesla employees who had worked at the company's Home Depot displays will be allowed to work at Tesla's stores
• in February, Tesla announced that it would begin selling its solar panels and home battery packs at over 800 Home Depot store
• the company will now focus on selling its energy products in its stores and on its website

Idle Chatter On EVs -- January 29, 2018

I am considering buying an EV. We live in an apartment complex where there are no EV charging units, so I am working on "work-arounds", but more on that later. FWIW, I happened to get into a discussion with Don about EVs and a "tipping point." Here was my long, long e-mail note to Don, again, not ready for prime time:

I had a long discussion with my son-in-law. Engineer. Nuclear engineer. Harvard MBA. Incredible experience in all energy sectors. Worked at GE. EV presentation to Immelt which Immelt began circulating to his project managers some years later.

My son-in-law and I were discussing EVs. We both agree there will be a tipping point -- when EVs become mainstream.

We discussed the energy grid, from the charging unit in the garage; the GE transformers one sees in every neighborhood; charging stations; EV corridors; the gasoline service station experience now compared to the EV charging station in the future. We were both optimistic about EVs. Pure EVs, not hybrids.

After the discussion, and I had time to reflect, I realized we missed a huge part of the story. This is why I think I am wrong on a tipping point on EVs.

It gets back to charging stations.

Charging stations in the home garage are no big deal; it will involve a huge change in the energy grid: all those home charging station; new, better, and bigger transformers in upscale neighborhoods (just two EVs in a typical neighborhood will require larger neighborhood transformers); etc., etc., but all easily manageable (and a huge deal for GE -- just saying).

But this is the problem with public charging stations. Public charging stations cannot be compared with current gasoline service stations which everyone does (makes those comparisons).

When I drive cross-country from Portland, OR, to Flathead Lake, MT, I stop midway to refuel -- it's a touristy, mom-and-pop retail service station with about 12 pumps (6 x 2). Cars are moving in and out about every five minutes; many re-park to go inside to buy souveniers, but cars are moving through the gasoline pumps in less than five minutes.

One or two charging units at that service station will meet demand (for now) and for a decade or so, I can't imagine that more than five or six charging units will be needed. After that ...

So, here's the rub.

Twelve pumps -- twelve cars moving through every five minutes.

In a half hour, during peak driving periods, this relatively small mom-and-pop retail service station is seeing as many as 60  (12 * 5) cars. It's hard for me to believe it's sixty but that's what the math works out to. Let's say it's 30 cars.

Now imagine if these were 30 EVs. This small mom-and-pop retail center would need to have an additional footprint of parking space to park 30 EVs for a half-hour at a time. And the parking footprint is not scalable: it can't be decreased or increased based on volume. Even during the slowest period during the winter, the mom and pop would be paying upkeep for their huge parking lot, and space that could be used for retail (like a coffee shop or souvenier shop) would be relegated to parking spaces. Some might think thirty cars charging at one time would be great for the restaurant inside that little touristy mom-and-pop retail store. Not. The little restaurant would be overwhelmed by that many customers, and like the parking lot is not scalable.

EV "service stations"  similar to gasoline service stations would simply not work: the parking lots would have to be huge.

Right now, I'm sitting inside a McDonald's. Lots of parking spaces, with about half of them being used (mid-morning; slow foot traffic). If each of those parking spaces had a charging station, a lot of the charging needs for EVs would be met.

A McDonald's franchise owner is reticent to put in self-ordering kiosks. They are incredibly expensive. But over time, those kiosks pay off for McDonald's. I assume a charging station might cost as much as a self-ordering kiosk. I can't imagine any McDonald's franchiser wanting to install a charging station or two, much less 20 charging stations. And without an excess of charging stations, EVs drivers aren't going to look for / stop at a McDonald's when they need re-charging if it's likely the two EV charging stations are occupied.

iPhone apps will be developed that identify open charging stations, but everyone with an EV will have the app, and just as you turn the corner to the "open" charging station, another EV driver will beat you to the spot (think of those blue "handicapped" parking spots except that in this case everyone will be looking for charging stations).

And, if McDonald's has a charging station but I don't want to eat at McDonald's, I can always charge my Tesla at McDonald's and then walk across the parking lot to eat at Taco Bueno or Wendy's or Whataburger. There's not much in for McDonald's to lead the way in EV charging units.

This is going to be fascinating to watch. EVs will change everything and charging units in the garage will handle the majority of charging issues, but EV charging stations comparable to gasoline/diesel service stations simply won't work: it's the real estate / footprint problem. For charging away from home, every Starbucks, fast food restaurant, service station will have to have multiple charging stations at $2,000 apiece and those charging stations will bring in no revenue to mom and pop who are shelling out to install them.

Another thought: the problem in NYC or Boston is not lack of charging stations in the future; it's lack of parking. But I'm not going to get into that. Except to say that EVs are being sold to commuters (due to range anxiety) but with no parking spots available in NYC or Boston, whether one has a conventional ICE or an EV, it hardly matters, does it?

On another note, here's another story on Panasonic, gigafactories, Ford, EVs, etc., over at SeekingAlpha.

Spot Electricity In Australia -- $14,000/MWh -- Reader -- November 29, 2017 -- Elon Musk Batteries NOT Working?

Australia has become the poster child for idiotic green energy policies.

I link electricity demand / prices for New England, California (demand, price), and Australia at my "Data Links" page.

Generally, it appears in the US, one can expect (today) about $20 - $50/MWh spot electricity.

A reader watching the Australian situation writes (just a few minutes ago):

I've been keeping an eye on the Australia electricity situation as a "canary in the coal mine" scenario with their advanced adoption of sun/wind generation. 

Well, in a few hours, as per the AEMO website, spot electricity will cost $14,000 MWh for the entire afternoon in Victoria and South Australia. 

In addition, Level 2 notice was sent out by the AEMO asking (begging?) for restricted consumption and every available generating source to fire up. 

The weather today is to be hot - 94 degrees - and cloudy.

Final note ... future contracts for summer quarter for SA and Vic are $173 and $149 per MWh. 

There is no way a modern society can function at those prices.

That is no exaggeration. Look at these two screen shots: one for South Australia and one for Victoria. Right now, in South Australia, the spot price is $188/MWh and in a few hours the spot price will be $13,000/MWh:

Similar graphic for Victoria:

I thought Elon Musk has solved that problem by placing the world's largest battery in South Australia. He won the bet by getting the battery built; he didn't say anything about solving the energy problem for South Australia.

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Natural Gas

Meanwhile, a reader provided this map -- it's going to be cold over most of the US next week. We'll see how natural gas holds up.  

WTI Hitting New Highs -- November 24, 2017

Active rigs:

$58.59↑↑	11/24/2017	11/24/2016	11/24/2015	11/24/2014	11/24/2013
Active Rigs	53	37	66	191	185

RBN Energy: Permian E&Ps explore ways to rein in sand supply-chain costs. A continuing series.

There’s a huge hurdle in the effort by E&Ps to take on the responsibility for frac sand logistics. In many ways, the simpler part of moving sand from the mine to the well site has been procuring the sand and having it hauled long-distance from the Upper Midwest to a transload facility in the shale play. The tougher nut to crack has been what’s known as the “last mile” — the delivery of sand by truck from the mine or transload facility (which often involves 20, 50 or even 100 miles or more), plus unloading sand at the well site before it is pumped into wells.

And because a much greater share of the frac sand used in Permian wells is expected to come from West Texas sand mines in the coming year, E&Ps that decide to assume supply chain responsibility are taking on a big, complicated job that will get tougher as volume continues to grow.

In an upcoming blog, we’ll zero in on these last-mile challenges, which include a shortage of truckers (and a new federal rule that will make that problem worse in December 2017), truck congestion on Permian roads and at well sites, and a new Occupational Safety & Health Administration (OSHA) regulation that will force major changes in how sand is handled at the well starting in June 2018. We’ll also look at other shale plays likely to experience a Permian-like shift toward regional sand supply.

Keystone pushes WTI higher: From MarketWatch -- 

U.S. oil prices climbed on Friday, hovering at two-and-a-half-year highs, as investors kept a wary eye on a pipeline disruption to a major crude-oil hub in Oklahoma.

West Texas Intermediate futures CLF8, rose 53 cents, or 0.9%, to $58.55 a barrel, hovering at levels not seen since the summer of 2015.

The contract has been inching closer in recent sessions, to attempt o to close the gap with Brent oil LCOF8, added 4 cents to $63.59 a barrel.

Both Brent and crude prices are up over 8% year-to-date. Keystone pipeline operator TransCanada said Tuesday that flow from its pipeline to the U.S. would be reduced by 85% through the end of November, after roughly 5,000 barrels of oil leaked in South Dakota last week.

OPEC in the dark about US shale: From Bloomberg --

Some OPEC officials are uneasy that no one seems to have a clear view of just how much shale oil will be hitting the market.

Forecasts of 2018 growth in shale output range from 500,000 barrels a day to as much as 1.7 million barrels a day, complicating any forecasts, Hall said at the briefing.

Hall, once known in the oil industry as “God” for his lucrative trades, said the U.S. Energy Information Administration is underestimating this year’s growth in shale oil by about 300,000 barrels a day.

And, finally Tesla -- things don't add up: From Bloomberg --

Elon Musk touted ranges and charging times that don’t compute with the current physics and economics of batteries. Four "promises" that raise huge questions:

• a semi that can haul 80,000 pounds for 500 miles on one charge -- the previous record: Daimler, October, 2017, a truck that maxes out at 220 miles; both Daimler and Tesla use the "same" kind of batteries [note: a reader reminds me that the "80,000 lbs" includes the tractor/trailer; net, the load is closer to 45,000 lbs and this is on interstate highways built for heavy loads; not necessarily the roads that Elon Musk is considering for "his" new semis]

• Tesla megachargers: 400 miles in 30 minutes -- this would be 10x better than Tesla's fastest chargers available today

• guaranteed charging rates of 7 cents per kWh: Tesla would have to pay a minimum of 40 cents per hour, on average for every 7 cents paid by a trucking company; as it is now, Tesla is offering a subsidy of as much as $1,000 for each Model S and each Model X owner in 2017

• a tiny roadster with a 620-mile range: that's a longer range than any battery-powered vechile on the road -- almost twice as long as Tesla's class-leading Model S and Model X; the Roadster does not have the room to pack in twice as many batteries as would be required

I've said many, many times, Tesla is not an auto manufacturing company; it's a battery company, and the biggest names in batteries -- Toyota, Sony, Apple, A123 -- have not been able to crack the "better battery code" after decades and billions of dollars in research.

**************************************

Too Much Turkey?

Reminder: September Is The Worst Month For Investors -- CNBC Talking Heads And Others Last Week -- Market Up Almost 200 Points In Early Trading -- The Market And Energy Page, T+234 -- September 11, 2017 -- The Trump Rally Continues

Disclaimer: the usual disclaimer applies.

NYSE:

• new highs -- 165, including -- CenterPoint Energy; Coca-Cola (owned a long time ago); McDonalds (I've never owned; never will); SRE (whoo-hoo); Steris (owned a long time ago)
• new lows: 9 

The month is not yet over. Do you remember all those stories just a week or so ago "reminding" us that September was always the worst month for investments.

Today, a crawler on CNBC says that the Dow is one percent (1%) away from its record intra-day high. The Dow is up almost 200 points, the Nasdaq is up 55 points; the S&P is up 17 points.

• 52-week high: 22,179.11
• at mid-day: 22,027.36

No government shut down. Debt limit raised. Money flowing to Texas post-Hurricane Harvey. Alt-right president making deals with alt-left president. I wonder what Alexander Hamilton would advise current Secretary of the Treasury?

Later: S&P 500 closes at an all-time time. 

***************************

Warm Heart

From inc.com:

The company says that a Tesla owner in a mandatory evacuation zone required another ~30 more miles of range to optimize his evacuation route in the traffic and they reached out to Tesla who agreed to a temporary access to the full 75 kWh of energy in the battery pack, an upgrade that has cost between $4,500 and $9,000 depending on the model and time of upgrade.

Considering the 15 kWh (30 to 40 additional miles) could also be useful to other owners affected by Irma, Tesla decided to also temporarily unlock other vehicles with the same software-lock battery packs in the region.

An upgrade to get an extra 35 miles for $9,000. Am I missing something here?

An extra 35 miles gets this much press? For one owner? It was one of the top ten finance stories over at Google Finance over the weekend and into today. Certainly there must be more going on. 

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What, Me Worry?

China and EVs: Chinese investors shrug off Chinese talk about banning conventional gasoline automobile engines -- Bloomberg. 

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What Goes Up, Must Come Down

US Solar bracing for first decline as demand for rooftop solar drops -- Bloomberg. This about says it all:

• residential installations slipped 17% in second quarter 
• industry sees two down years, and that’s without panel tariffs

By the way, at another site it was suggested that the amount of rooftop solar energy that was added in 2016 was huge -- 8% greater than the year before. I thought the story sounded a bit fishy -- I was going to post it and say that 8% of zero was still zero, but decided not to post that. Now from that linked Bloomberg article:

Developers added a total of almost 2.4 gigawatts in the second quarter, putting the industry on pace to reach 12.4 gigawatts this year.

That’s down about 17 percent from a record 2016, and the research company expects another decline in 2018.

As I've said many, many times, the rooftop solar energy fad seems just like the aluminum siding fad I saw in North Dakota when I was growing up there many decades ago.

GM Losing "Some $9,000" On Every Bolt It Sells, But It's Actually Much Worse -- Financial Times -- August 7, 2017

I'm re-posting the Financial Times story on EVs (see link below). I don't think the writer could have spelled it out any simpler:

GM believes it is losing "some $9,000" on every Bolt it sells. 

What can that possibly say about Tesla's Model 3? But note also, even with government subsidies, EVs cost significantly more than ICEV by a wide margin. EVs are simply not mainstream yet, and the tea leaves suggest that will not change for at least ten years.

From an earlier post:

And yet another article on the downside of EVs: Electric vehicle realities in the Financial Times.

In the spirit of non-consensus thinking, it’s time for FT Alphaville to ask just how green electric cars really are. Are policies to ban diesel and gasoline cars at some arbitrary point in the future likely to unleash a barrage of negative externalities that no one’s yet even thought about?

Brian Piccioni and team at BCA Research offer a good starting point to our questions on Thursday, in a report entitled Electric Vehicles Part 1: Costs of Ownership.

The bad news for EV fans is their work determines that the cost of ownership of an EV still far exceeds that of an internal Combustion Engine Vehicle (ICEV), even after subsidies are accounted for.

With numbers crunched, a comparison between the Chevy Bolt EV and two equivalent ICEVs, the Chevy Sonic and the Open Astra, over 100,000 miles, shows that there’s no denying EVs are still more expensive than ICEVs.

Three points come up in particular.

1) Excluding subsidies, the net expense difference is about $16,000 in the US, $18,500 in Germany and $13,200 in France.

2) After subsidies, the difference is about $6,600 in New York State, $13,900 in Germany and $6,000 in France.

3) Even if electricity were free (which of course it isn’t), after subsidies, the difference in cost of ownership in NY would be $3,400, $3,200 in Germany and $600 in France.

With respect to the Bolt specifically, the analysts note GM believes it’s losing some $9,000 with every Bolt it sells. The automaker would need manufacturing costs to be cut by about $14,750 — 34 per cent — to make the vehicle competitive with GM’s Opel Astra in France.

I'm re-posting this story because there are so many other data points from the article. For example:

• the numbers above can thus be adapted for a “What If…” scenario, wherein GM actually begins selling the Bolt at average corporate profitability
• in that case the numbers get even more bleak. Excluding subsidies, a Bolt would be $26,900 more expensive in the US than the equivalent ICEV, $29,300 more expensive in Germany and $24,000 more expensive in France

More:

• there are additional manufacturing costs for “Pure Play” EV vendors like Tesla, meanwhile, because unlike integrated auto manufacturers, they can’t use many of the same components from ICEV production, limiting economies of scale
• but the common denominator for all EVs is the cost of batteries, say the analysts, since that’s a commodity. It’s also the key factor behind the faster rate of depreciation of EVs versus ICEVs

More:

• here, arguably, some significant issues are being overlooked. For example, while the consensus view is that EV battery prices have been experiencing price declines over the past few years (in the order of 8 to 14 per cent), the analysts themselves could not find any evidence to support that position
• some confusion is probably also occurring on the comparables. While some reports claim battery cells cost $145/kWh, the analysts stress this is not the same thing as a battery pack, which comes as a fully assembled unit with wiring, electronics and a cooling system. In the case of the Bolt, GM lists the cost of its battery pack as $15,734, so about $262/kWh

And this:

• the analysts further suspect it may be part of GM’s commercial strategy to subsidise the battery packs so as not to show EV buyers that a replacement battery is overwhelmingly expensive.
• given the Bolt comes with a 100,000-mile guaranty and an 8-year warranty on the battery, however, the analysts believe it’s highly unlikely many consumers will spend $15,734 (plus labour) to replace the battery on an eight-year-old EV. This allows GM to sell them below cost, since it’s unlikely to sell many replacements. Accordingly the analysts note: “We believe that most likely the actual cost of the battery pack of the Bolt is much higher than $15,734”
• regardless, when it comes to degradation, GM's own expectation is that depending on use, the battery may degrade as little as 10% to as much as 40% of capacity over the warranty period
• overall, batteries currently don’t last much more than 100,000 miles and yet 18,300 miles per year is the average UK mileage for a company car. Assuming a normal distribution, the BCA analysts predict up to half of all EV drivers may experience degradation sooner than the eight year guarantee because of surpassing the 100,000-mile limitation on the warranties (comment: a flaw in this argument: most agree that EVs will be bought as a second or third car and used for local trips; not long trips; thus average mileage will be will less than 18,000 miles per year)

I have to quit here. But I haven't even gotten to the "most important" part of the article. See the linked article for more. If behind a paywall, googling it will get you there.

Idle Meandering On A Sunday Night -- July 9, 2017; Inflation, Already Low, Is Falling Further -- A Mystery

Updates

July 15, 2017: in the original post I talk about the imagined experience of recharging an EV on a cross-country drive. Here's where we stand (see graphic below) and the tea leaves do not suggest things will improve any time soon with regard to batteries. When looking at the graphic below, think about all the service stations across the country; the number of pumpers at each station; the size of the "footprint" of the service station pump areas; and, the length of time one car takes to refuel. Now consider if a significant number of those cars were EVs, all requiring 20 minutes to charge just enough for 60 additional miles. Add this: with your conventional gasoline automobile you can stop at any branded gasoline station (Shell, Chevron, XOM, etc) but if you have a Tesla you have to use a Tesla charging station. No saying how the other EVs will "operate" their recharging system. Source for the graphic:

July 10, 2017: see comments which include these links:
https://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2017/02/24/china-dials-back-its-lending-to-wobbly-venezuela/
https://s3.postimg.org/b93czxxtf/Webp.net-compress-image_52.jpg 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BAjN6bG7XzMhttps://s13.postimg.org/8zc2kcb87/Captura_de_pantalla_543.png  

Original Post

 Over the weekend I read an "op-ed" by Bernie Sanders. He was tired of Trump's tweets. LOL. Bernie was writing bout his summer vacation and how they were just getting ready to visit Utah. I thought the entire piece very boring, so I assume the same thing: talking about my week in Montana will be very boring to readers. If I do write about my trip it's for the archives, for future reference, and I would encourage readers to ignore it. It will be as boring as Bernie's travelogue -- maybe more so. LOL.

So, where are we on July 9, 2017? The 170th day into Mr Trump's presidency; about 240 days since his election.

US cities are calm, certainly compared to Hamburg. I guess Angela Merkel took a page from the Baltimore mayor's playbook: give them some room to destroy. 

Gasoline is cheap, although I was surprised to see it slightly higher here in north Texas than when I left, currently about $2.19/gallon.

We have "everyone" falling all over themselves writing about EVs. No one talks about the infrastructure. It will be interesting to see all those EVs on the road with drivers looking for charging stations. Seriously. Even when EVs become mainstream (air quotes would be good here), drivers are going to say, "Hey, does that look like a charging station?" "No, dear, that's  Netflix kiosk."

I think the big takeaway this week is the separate paths the US and China are taking vs the path that the EU is taking. 

A reader hit the proverbial nail on the head when he wrote this:

It seems very obvious that Germany and most of Europe would want the US to follow the same energy policy as they are promoting for themselves. They have to be very afraid of the huge, and I mean HUGE economic advantage the US will have with our inexpensive fossil fuel economy.

I explain it to people this way: imagine the largest economy in the world and then giving that largest economy the least expensive energy in the world.

That is our future If we don't allow the "left" to destroy it.

One can only hope that Trump is not a one-off. If after four years, "we" elect another Obama all was for nought.

The only way the EU can hobble the US, is to convince the US to go down the same "energy road" as the EU. China will not be so crazy. In fact, one can argue, the Chinese are being duplicitous -- if that's the right word: encouraging the EU to encourage the US to go "green," thereby hobbling the entire western world. Meanwhile, China will continue going its own way.

Futures mean squat, but right now it looks like another nice day for the market: all three indices (S&P; Nasdaq; and, Dow) are in the green (futures at 9:50 p.m. Central Time). The jobs report this past week was incredible; it's funny: I can read a dozen stories after the jobs report is released, and remain confused about what it might mean, and yet, Matt Drudge seems to figure it out immediately. If Hillary were president, the media would be crowing about the jobs report and the economy and the market. But she isn't. And they aren't (crowing about anything, except the president's tweets).

So, I'm in a great mood tonight, looking forward to seeing what the market does tomorrow.

My only bit of sadness: not being on Lake Flathead. Wow, that was incredible. I would write more but I don't want to come off as being as boring as Bernie.

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The Magical Mystery Tour

From the WSJ over the weekend:

Leading central banks plan to withdraw some of the stimulus measures they have put in place since the financial crisis. But their timing seems a little puzzling: Inflation, which is already below their targets, is falling world-wide.

The decline in inflation is a mystery since the global economy appears to be growing at a faster pace than during recent years, while unemployment rates continue to edge lower.

According to central bankers, inflation is generated by the gap between the demand for goods and services and the economy’s ability to supply them. When that output gap is wide, inflation is lower, and when it is narrow, prices grow more quickly.

Low inflation is a symptom of a weak economy, something they want to avoid as much as high inflation, a sign of an overheated economy.

Try as they might, central banks have been unable to reach their inflation targets over recent years, despite their success boosting growth and lowering jobless numbers. That has raised questions about the reliability of the traditional link between the output gap and prices.

Is it different this time?

The writer and the analysts are blowing off the effect "cheap energy" might have on inflation:

Much of that decline was due to easing energy prices. But even excluding that volatile item, and similarly choppy food prices, “core” inflation is slowing in many places.

That isn’t a recent phenomenon. Core inflation in developed economies hasn’t changed much in the years since the financial crisis, never reaching the 2.5% rate it stood at in September 2008, when Lehman Brothers collapsed, or going below the 1.1% rate it hit in December 2010.

Central bankers are struggling to explain why inflation isn’t responding the way the textbooks say it should to an improving global economy and falling jobless rates. According to the OECD, the unemployment rate in developed economies fell to 5.9% in May from 6.3% a year earlier.

One wonders if analysts have discounted cheap energy too much?

I will wager that in the next six months we will start seeing articles on the effect low energy prices are having on the global economy and the low inflation rate.

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The Apple Page

With iPhone 8 release looming, Apple may become the world's first trillion-dollar company. Link here.

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Best Birthday Gift Ever

Link here.

No matter how bad your aim is, at three feet and less, you cannot miss. I'm wondering if this works on "cockroaches." Probably not.

Legal in California? Yes. But Amazon won't ship any bug assault gun to California. Can't make this stuff up.