Idle Chatter On EVs -- January 29, 2018

I am considering buying an EV. We live in an apartment complex where there are no EV charging units, so I am working on "work-arounds", but more on that later. FWIW, I happened to get into a discussion with Don about EVs and a "tipping point." Here was my long, long e-mail note to Don, again, not ready for prime time:

I had a long discussion with my son-in-law. Engineer. Nuclear engineer. Harvard MBA. Incredible experience in all energy sectors. Worked at GE. EV presentation to Immelt which Immelt began circulating to his project managers some years later.

My son-in-law and I were discussing EVs. We both agree there will be a tipping point -- when EVs become mainstream.

We discussed the energy grid, from the charging unit in the garage; the GE transformers one sees in every neighborhood; charging stations; EV corridors; the gasoline service station experience now compared to the EV charging station in the future. We were both optimistic about EVs. Pure EVs, not hybrids.

After the discussion, and I had time to reflect, I realized we missed a huge part of the story. This is why I think I am wrong on a tipping point on EVs.

It gets back to charging stations.

Charging stations in the home garage are no big deal; it will involve a huge change in the energy grid: all those home charging station; new, better, and bigger transformers in upscale neighborhoods (just two EVs in a typical neighborhood will require larger neighborhood transformers); etc., etc., but all easily manageable (and a huge deal for GE -- just saying).

But this is the problem with public charging stations. Public charging stations cannot be compared with current gasoline service stations which everyone does (makes those comparisons).

When I drive cross-country from Portland, OR, to Flathead Lake, MT, I stop midway to refuel -- it's a touristy, mom-and-pop retail service station with about 12 pumps (6 x 2). Cars are moving in and out about every five minutes; many re-park to go inside to buy souveniers, but cars are moving through the gasoline pumps in less than five minutes.

One or two charging units at that service station will meet demand (for now) and for a decade or so, I can't imagine that more than five or six charging units will be needed. After that ...

So, here's the rub.

Twelve pumps -- twelve cars moving through every five minutes.

In a half hour, during peak driving periods, this relatively small mom-and-pop retail service station is seeing as many as 60  (12 * 5) cars. It's hard for me to believe it's sixty but that's what the math works out to. Let's say it's 30 cars.

Now imagine if these were 30 EVs. This small mom-and-pop retail center would need to have an additional footprint of parking space to park 30 EVs for a half-hour at a time. And the parking footprint is not scalable: it can't be decreased or increased based on volume. Even during the slowest period during the winter, the mom and pop would be paying upkeep for their huge parking lot, and space that could be used for retail (like a coffee shop or souvenier shop) would be relegated to parking spaces. Some might think thirty cars charging at one time would be great for the restaurant inside that little touristy mom-and-pop retail store. Not. The little restaurant would be overwhelmed by that many customers, and like the parking lot is not scalable.

EV "service stations"  similar to gasoline service stations would simply not work: the parking lots would have to be huge.

Right now, I'm sitting inside a McDonald's. Lots of parking spaces, with about half of them being used (mid-morning; slow foot traffic). If each of those parking spaces had a charging station, a lot of the charging needs for EVs would be met.

A McDonald's franchise owner is reticent to put in self-ordering kiosks. They are incredibly expensive. But over time, those kiosks pay off for McDonald's. I assume a charging station might cost as much as a self-ordering kiosk. I can't imagine any McDonald's franchiser wanting to install a charging station or two, much less 20 charging stations. And without an excess of charging stations, EVs drivers aren't going to look for / stop at a McDonald's when they need re-charging if it's likely the two EV charging stations are occupied.

iPhone apps will be developed that identify open charging stations, but everyone with an EV will have the app, and just as you turn the corner to the "open" charging station, another EV driver will beat you to the spot (think of those blue "handicapped" parking spots except that in this case everyone will be looking for charging stations).

And, if McDonald's has a charging station but I don't want to eat at McDonald's, I can always charge my Tesla at McDonald's and then walk across the parking lot to eat at Taco Bueno or Wendy's or Whataburger. There's not much in for McDonald's to lead the way in EV charging units.

This is going to be fascinating to watch. EVs will change everything and charging units in the garage will handle the majority of charging issues, but EV charging stations comparable to gasoline/diesel service stations simply won't work: it's the real estate / footprint problem. For charging away from home, every Starbucks, fast food restaurant, service station will have to have multiple charging stations at $2,000 apiece and those charging stations will bring in no revenue to mom and pop who are shelling out to install them.

Another thought: the problem in NYC or Boston is not lack of charging stations in the future; it's lack of parking. But I'm not going to get into that. Except to say that EVs are being sold to commuters (due to range anxiety) but with no parking spots available in NYC or Boston, whether one has a conventional ICE or an EV, it hardly matters, does it?

On another note, here's another story on Panasonic, gigafactories, Ford, EVs, etc., over at SeekingAlpha.