Either I'm Misreading The Article, Or The Headline Has Nothing To Do With The Story -- January 29, 2018

Updates

January 30, 2018: burr under my saddle. This headline-article has really bothered me. It's not like Platt's to post a "misleading" headline. I finally figured it out. Platt's was suggesting this: Saudi Arabia needs a higher price for crude oil if its Aramco IPO is going to succeed, and the IPO/oil industry is an existential issue for Saudi Arabia.

This is the nightmare: if the price of crude oil continues to rise, it benefits US shale and puts Saudi Arabia's crude oil share of the market at risk. That was the "nightmare" that Platt's was referencing. The headline confused me but it now makes sense: rising crude oil prices will create another shale oil nightmare for Saudi Arabia.

Original Post

 

This is Platt's headline: Saudi’s Aramco IPO dream could create shale oil nightmare.

Nowhere in the story is the word "nightmare" used.

The story begins:

Saudi Arabia’s dream of securing a $100bn windfall from the IPO of Aramco may be clouding its judgement.

The kingdom needs higher oil prices to entice international investors to buy a stake in the state-owned company, which supplies almost all its crude.

Using its OPEC clout to restrict global supplies and pump up the cost of its barrels makes the mega offering look more appealing but the move has also revived the kingdom’s biggest enemy in the form of US shale oil.

Oil prices have climbed 33pc to trade around $70 per barrel since the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), with the help of Russia, agreed in late 2016 to shave 1.8m barrels per day (bpd) of crude from world supplies.
That deal — brokered primarily by Riyadh — has now been extended for another year. 

Why is that a nightmare for shale oil? The article continues:

Of course, there is more at play than just Aramco. The International Monetary Fund argues that Saudi Arabia needs oil prices at their current levels to function efficiently without having to burn any more of its foreign reserves, which have dropped by about a third from their peak in August 2014 at $737 bn to compensate for the loss of revenues.
The slump also forced Riyadh to slash state benefits and subsidies, many of which have been reinstalled since oil prices recovered.

Selling a stake in Aramco is the centrepiece of his grand vision to modernise the oil-rich kingdom. Politically, its success depends on achieving the prince’s own valuation of around $2 trillion.

However, few bankers or industry experts believe such a lofty figure is attainable, even in the current buoyant environment. 

Again, I still don't see the nightmare.

I am obviously missing something.

Most interesting line in that article: However, few bankers or industry experts believe such a lofty figure ($2 trillion) is attainable, even in the current buoyant environment.

That supports my view that I have huge doubts the IPO will even be launched outside the mideast.