Tuesday, November 19, 2019

No Daily Activity Report Published Today -- November 19, 2019

Perhaps the Bakken is closed.

Until further notice.

CLR's Long Creek Unit: On another note, today I noted on the NDIC GIS map that there are two rigs operating in CLR's Lone Creek "60-well" unit. The original plan, according to CLR, was to drill out the 60 wells using only one rig. Today, I noted two rigs in the Long Creek Unit. It's possible the graphic lags what is really going on in the field, and possibly there is still just one rig operating there, but the NDIC GIS map shows two today. One rig is on #36760. The five rigs on that particular pad are all on drl status.

The other rig is on #36866; that location and #36865 on that particular 5-well pad are on drl status; the other three are still loc only.

Great News For Texas, North Dakota, Oklahoma, New Mexico

California is one step closer to banning all oil drilling in their state. California has seen a steady decline in crude oil production since 1985, and is now down to about 450,000 bopd. In August, 2019, production was down to 439,000 bopd. The state imports much (most?) of its oil from Saudi Arabia, or at least it did at one time.

The state of California is currently investigating the high price of gasoline in their state compared to the rest of the country. I believe California's daily crude oil demand was around 1,900,000 bopd back in 2017.

Norway's Johan Sverdrup will easily make up the difference if when California bans all oil drilling.

API Weekly US Crude Oil In Storage

A build of 5.954 million bbls. Analysts had expected a much smaller build: 1.543 million bbls. 

WTI Drops Almost $2/Bbl; Drops Over 3% -- November 19, 2019

IPO: now that it's obvious that the ARAMCO IPO won't support oil prices, WTI dropped over 3% today, and Brent crude dropped 2.7%. The OPEC basket rose 0.5%. Wall Street says the price of oil fell due to the fact that the US war on China trade has not improved, maybe gotten worse. 

Active rigs

Active Rigs5562563964

Six new permits, #37194 - #37199, inclusive:
  • Operator: Slawson (5): North Range Resources
  • Fields: North Fork (McKenzie), Grassy Butte (McKenzie)
  • Comments:
    • Slawson has permits for a 5-well Mauser Federal pad in lots 2 & 4, section 18-149-97, North Fork oil field
      • currently three producing wells sited in that drilling unit: #25432; #25433; and, #23893; all three drilled/completed back in 2013, and all three running between 180K and 215K, cumulative
    • North Range Resources has a permit for another Placid well in lot section 36-146-100, Grassy Butte oil field;
      • there is one existing permit in the same section, targeting the Duperow, Placid 36-2V-D 
      • permit for #37194: 320-acre spacing; will target the Duperow; it looks like the lateral will be about 3,250 feet long; 
      • looking at other wells in the immediate area, one thought: "hope springs eternal"
One permit reinstated:
  • 31392, Slawson, Mauser Federal 2-18-17H
Three permits renewed:
  • Liberty Resources (2): a Christine permit and an LTM permit, both in Mountrail County
  • CLR: a Steward permit in Divide County
Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 36393, 5,281, MRO, Yesenko USA 11-21TFH, Four Bears, t9/19; cum 25K over first 30 days;
  • 35025, n/d, Whiting, Vance 14-9TFH, Truax, t--; cum --;
  • 35024, n/d, Whiting, Vance 14-9-2H, Truax, t--; cum --;
  • 35277, n/d, Whiting, Vance Federal 41-17-3TFH, Truax, t--; cum --;
  • 35027, n/d, Whiting, Vance 14-9-2TFH, Truax, t--; cum --;

Housing Starts -- November 19, 2019

Link here.
  • prior: 1.256 million
  • prior revised: 1.266 million
  • forecast: 1.320 million
  • actual: 1.314 million
The narrative:
Upward acceleration for residential investment is the indication from housing starts and permits.
October starts just missed Econoday's consensus but at a 1.314 million annual rate they are, outside of August's 1.391 million, the strongest showing since May last year.
Permits are the big positive in today's report, well above expectations at a 1.461 million rate which is the strongest since the subprime housing bubble in 2007.

Three-month averages for the key single-family category confirm the strength. Starts are running at a 923,000 rate on the average which is another 12-year high and up sharply over the last two months. Single-family permits are at an 888,000 rate which is likewise pivoting higher and also the strongest in 12 years.

Multi-family homes are further contributing to October's strength, up 8.6 percent for starts and 8.2 percent for permits. Another major plus in the report is a 10.3 percent surge in housing completions to a 1.256 million, offering immediate supply and a further boost to the new home market.

The housing sector broke out its year-and-a-half slump last quarter and looks to be breaking out further so far this quarter. Low mortgage rates and high levels of employment are two very strong positives for housing where emerging strength will help offset extending weakness in the global economy and domestic manufacturing.
This an incredible report.

I normally would not have posted this but I happened to catch Steve Liesman report these numbers on CNBC this morning. He seemed absolutely depressed. I've never seen him seem so "down," so depressed. My hunch: he was thinking this absolutely should not be happening under Trump.

It also explains why the market is down today.

Consensus outlook, from Econoday;
Starts and permits have been volatile month-to-month but have been showing accelerating trends for single-family homes.
Starts in October are expected to come in at a 1.320 million annual pace, sharply higher than September's 1.256 million. The consensus for permits is pointing to a slight decline, at 1.378 million versus 1.391 million in August (revised from an initial 1.386 million).
Actions Have Consequences

My hunch: a lot of folks "voted" for "emission-free by '53" assuming that if it didn't work out, it could all be changed anyway. After, 2015 is decades away from 2053. What folks did not understand was once those "regulations" or "feel-good policies" were in place it would affect urban planning in the near term. People's exhibit A (Brookline, MA, bans new natural gas hook-ups):

FedEx Closes Pension Plan To New Hires

Link here

The Herb Page
For Arianna

Sage, rosemary, and thyme. Link.

Note that common sage and rosemary are of the same genus. 

Sage: Lamiaceae family
  • common sage, Salvia officinalis,
  • a member of the mint family, Lamiaceae, native to the Mediterranean region
  • evergreen
  • leaves are oblong
  • lavender flowers, late spring, summer 
  • taste: mild to slightly peppery with some touches of mint
Rosemary: Lamiaceae family
  • Salvia rosmarinus (as of 2017)
  • Rosmarinus officinalis (until 2017, now a synonym)
  • a member of the mint family, Lamiaceae; native to the Mediterranean region
  • evergreen, needle-like leaves
  • flowers in spring and summer, but can be in constant bloom in warm climates
  • has been know to flower as late as early December
  • taste: a strong, even pungent, pine-like fragrance and flavor
Thyme: Lamiaceae family
  • Thymus vulgaris
  •  a member of the mint family, Lamiaceae, native to the Mediterranean region
  • evergreen
  • huge in French cooking
  • importance in Middle Eastern cooking cannot be understated
  • along with oregano and marjoram, it is a crucial element of za'atar
  • za'atar: a condiment; Arabic for both thyme and marjoram
  • za'atar: contains many of the essential oils found in thyme
  • dried thyme is widely used in Armenia in tisanes (called urc) --  herbal teas

Idle Rambling -- Looking Forward To October, 2019, North Dakota Crude Oil Production -- November 19, 2019

From the data below the asterisks, we can have some fun predicting crude oil production in North Dakota for the month of October, 2019. That data will be released mid-December, 2019.

Crude oil production (see the September, 2019, preliminary data):
  • August, 2019: 1,480,475 bopd
Let's suppose September had been a "normal" weather month. Then, let's suppose, crude oil production would have been up 2.1%, or 1,511,565 bopd for September (again, back-of-the-envelope calculations based on assumption).

Then, for October, another 2.3% increase in production or 1,546,331 bopd.

If that happens, a month from now:
  • October, 2019: 1,546,331 bopd
  • September, 2019, revised, final (assumptions): 1,456,264 bopd
  • month-over-month: an increase of 90,067 bopd
  • month-over-month: an increase of 6.2%
So, this will be fun to watch. Again, everything above the asterisks is idle chatter, back-of-the-envelope calculations, based o assumptions. The numbers are forecast estimates and not actual production figures.


This may be the big story coming out of the Director's Cut for September, 2019, data: the number of wells off line for operational reasons (DUCs and "inactive" wells):
  • Wells that were off line, at the end of September, 2019: 3,020 -- this may be an all-time high since this data was first reported for the Bakken; this is amazing; due to a very, very wet September; wettest on record, some say
The Director's Cut
Data For September, 2019 
North Dakota Oil and Natural Gas Production

Crude oil production:

  • September, 2019, forecast: 1,409,785 bopd
  • September, 2019, preliminary: 1,443,275 bopd
    • revenue forecast: 1,400,000 bopd
  • August, 2019, final, 1,480,475 bopd
  • July, 2019, final: 1,445,934 bopd
  • June, 2019, final: 1,425,230 bopd (previous all-time high)
  • month-over-month: a decrease of 37,000 bopd(September-August)
  • month-over-month: a decrease of 2.5% (September-August)

Director's Cut -- September, 2019 -- Data -- Posted

This may be the big story coming out of the Director's Cut for September, 2019, data: the number of wells off line for operational reasons (DUCs and "inactive" wells):
  • Wells that were off line, at the end of September, 2019: 3,020 -- this may be an all-time high since this data was first reported for the Bakken; this is amazing; due to a very, very wet September; wettest on record, some say
 This was posted 24 hours after I posted the Director's Cut:

Again, see disclaimer below.

Link here.

NDIC Director's Cuts are posted here

The Director's Cut
Data For September, 2019 
North Dakota Oil and Natural Gas Production

Disclaimer: usual disclaimer applies. As usual, this is done very, very quickly. It is not proofread. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. If this is important to you, go to the source.

A huge, huge "thank you" to Lynn Helms and his staff at the NDIC getting this information out in a timely and transparent manner. I am not aware of any other state that does such a good job providing such data. 

Crude oil production:

  • September, 2019, forecast: 1,409,785 bopd
  • September, 2019, preliminary: 1,443,275 bopd
    • revenue forecast: 1,400,000 bopd
  • August, 2019, final, 1,480,475
  • July, 2019, final: 1,445,934 bopd
  • June, 2019, final: 1,425,230 bopd (previous all-time high)
  • month-over-month: a decrease of 37,000 bopd(September-August)
  • month-over-month: a decrease of 2.5% (September-August)
Gas production:
  • September, 2019, forecast: 3,040,100 MCF/day
  • September, 2019, preliminary: 2,947,469 MCF/day
    • 81% capture
  • August , 2019, final: 3,014,419 MCF/day -- an all-time high
  • July, 2019, final: 2,944,816 MCF/day
  • June, 2019, final: 2,885,293 MCF/day
BOE, September, preliminary:
  • natural gas:  2,947,469 MCF/day = 491,163 boe
  • crude oil: 1,443,275 bopd
  • total boe, preliminary for September, 2019: 1,934,438 boepd
  • total boe for August, 2019: 1,982,794 boepd 
  • month-over-month increase/decrease: 48,356 boe
  • month-over-month: a decrease of 2.4%
Producing wells:
  • September, 2019, preliminary:
  • August, 2019, final: (all-time high was 15,954, July 2019)
  • July, 2019, preliminary: 15,954 (another new all-time high)
  • June, 2019, 15,752
  • October, 2019: 126
  • September, 2019: 92
  • August, 2019: 127
  • July, 2019: 141
  • June, 2019: 127
Rig count:
  • Today: 55 (all-time high was 218 on 5/29/12)
  • October: 59
  • September: 61
  • August: 62
  • July: 57
  • June: 63
Fort Berthold Reservation data partitioned out.

  • September, 2019, preliminary: 94
    • revenue forecast: 90
  • August, 2019, final: 102
  • July, 2019, final: 137
  • June, 2019, 102 (revised, last month's report); revised again, now, 123
  • May, 2019, 113 (final)
Gas capture:
  • statewide, captured: 82% (81% reported last month)
  • statewide, captured: 
    • September, 2019: 2,429,154 MCF/day (preliminary)
    • previous all time high was May, 2019: 2,287,761 MCF/day
    • FBIR Bakken:
      September, 2019, captured: 79% (75% reported last month)
Off line, to end of September, 2019: 3,020 -- this may be an all-time high since this data was first reported for the Bakken; this is amazing; due to a very, very wet September; wettest on record, some say

Notes From All Over, Part 2 -- November 19, 2019

I thought the Permian boom was over. Weren't there stories just a few weeks ago that things were slowing down in the Permian? Whatever. Link to this story here. Also at zerohedge.
I thought the Permian boom was over, part 2:

From the linked Bloomberg story via Rigzone:
The New York city area may boast the largest share of personal income in the U.S., but pay is growing the fastest in the much smaller oil-boom towns of Odessa and Midland, Texas.
Indeed, Midland’s per capita personal income of more than $122,000 a year was higher than that of San Jose, San Francisco, Boston or New York last year.
Midland and Odessa -- bases for Permian basin shale production -- have benefited from a boom that last year drove the U.S. to surpass Russia to become the world’s largest oil producer.
Still, personal income in the New York-Newark-Jersey City area last year rose to almost $1.5 trillion, or 8.3% of the U.S. total -- the largest share in the U.S. The NYC metro area was followed by Los Angeles with a 4.8% share and Chicago at 3.3%. Among the top 20 largest, Denver surpassed Riverside, California for the 18th spot last year.
For the fifth year in a row, metropolitan areas in the U.S. outpaced rural and small towns in per capita personal income -- total pay divided by population.
Backyard News

McKesson: previously posted, about a year ago. Company's headquarters moving from San Francisco to "a suburb of Dallas." Apparently that move is now taking place. Headline story of 329 folks at San Francisco headquarters who elected not to move to Texas. I was curious -- exactly to which Dallas suburb is McKesson moving. I see why the name of the suburb was not mentioned. It's a bit confusing. The company is moving to a "planned community" inside the city of Irving, TX, pretty much in between (and north) of Dallas/Ft Worth. The "planned community" is Las Colinas.

Las Colinas? Sounds like a city in southern California or Arizona or New Mexico. I had never heard of it. Here's the wiki entry. Very, very interesting. It turns out the city is closer to my apartment than it is to Dallas or Ft Worth. It's literally just down the road from where we live. I could bike there if the twelve-lane divided highways weren't such a problem between my house and Las Colinas.

The migration of businesses to Texas is truly incredible.

The Vikings
For The Granddaughters

The names of the three long-ships that excited the "Viking Age" literature:
  • the Tune ship, unearthed at Rolvsøy, 1867; dated to about 900 AD
  • the Gokstad ship, unearthed at Sandar in Vestfold, 1880; overshadowed the Tune find
  • the granddaddy of them all, the Oseberg ship, unearthed at Slagen in Vestfold, 1904; dated to about 820 A.D. based on tree-ring dating; the ship's active life ended in 834 A.D., when her presumptive owner died
820 A.D. -- this would be about the same time as Constantinople reaching mid-life as a Christian city. About a century after the burial of this ship (834 A.D.),
On the other side of the Viking world from Oseberg and the Norwegian Vestfold and about a century later, the Arab diplomat and Islamic teacher Ibn Fadlan noted down his detailed description of the rites surrounding the cremation of a Viking chieftain on the banks of the Volga which he witnessed in 921.
When I was in eighth grade, my dad took my grandfather (Paul Oksol) and me to Norway. The trip to Oslo-Trondheim-Bergen-Copenhagen-Berlin-Luxembourg-Paris took lasted about three weeks I suppose. Maybe only two weeks but it was a long trip measured by everything we saw.

Early in the trip -- perhaps the first "thing" we visited  --  we were taken to the museum where one or all (?) of these long ships were on display having been restored to pristine condition. At the time I did not know what the big deal was. Things are now starting to fit together. What a great story.

My three books for the week:

  • Lost To The West: The Forgotten Byzantine Empire That Rescued Western Civilization, Lars Brownworth, c. 2009.
  • The Vikings: A History, Robert Ferguson, c. 2009.
  • And I'm re-reading 1421: The Year China Discovered America, Gavin Menzies, c. 2008.

Mixed Messages Coming Out Of The Austin Chalk -- Some Selling; Some Buying -- November 19, 2019

Austin Chalk: From SeekingAlpha earlier this year -- September 25, 2019 -- COP looks to sell assets in their Lousisian Austin Chalk play.
ConocoPhillips has placed on the market its entire 234K-acre holding in Louisiana's Austin Chalk play, only a year and a half after first unveiling its stake, Upstream reports.

COP COO Matt Fox discussed the disappointing results in July, pointing to oil rates of just 100 bbl/day. "It's just unlikely to be enough to justify a development in that part of the play."

Three out of COP's four test wells so far in Louisiana have produced more than 90% water and not enough oil to justify big investments, Fox said.
The Bakken: Lynn Helms recently said the best play in the US right now -- bar now -- is the Bakken. Period. Dot.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

The market: well that's a bummer. After being up (green) just before the market opened, I see that the Dow is now down about 48 points.
  • AAPL: it had been up about a dollar before the open; now barely in the green;
  • BRK-B: flat; down 2 cents on a $219-share stock
  • SRE: down slightly
  • UNP: actually up slightly; I would have thought it would have followed the market down
  • EW: wow, what a surprise; up another $2.04 right now; huge surprise; I wish I had EW in my portfolio (I don't): LOL
  • XLNX: up a bit; riding the coattails of other chip stocks
Hey, lots of talk right now about QCOM. A momentum stock it should be moving up. It isn't.
  • QCOM: down a bit
  • WMT: down slightly (down 3 cents on a $120-share stock
  • ARAMCO: shows up as a "private company"; share price not available

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- November 19, 2019

Texas weather report: gorgeous. It will be about ten degrees warmer than normal, I thought I heard. Maybe, maybe not, but it should hit 70°F. No rain. No wind. No errors.

Texas highways: incredible. The interstate and divided highway turnarounds are incredible. Brilliant.

Shameful: speaking of roads, the state couldn't find a way to come up with $30 million to widen the most dangerous stretch of road in the state. The stretch of the road is in the Bakken. The Legacy Fund has distributed $455 million over the years and currently has about $6 billion in assets. But the state couldn't come up with $30 million to address a problem the state really could fix, unlike the meth problem.

The meth problem? Where did that come from? The new South Dakota ad campaign to address the meth problem. Apparently "everyone's on meth" in South Dakota.

Just a month from now -- the general election. Say what? From The Bismarck Tribune yesterday, November 18, 2019. Screenshot to follow. For now, cut and paste:
Days to Iowa caucuses: 77. Days to general election: 35. Here's what we're watching heading into a new week on the 2020 campaign.

Twitter. I had never checked my twitter account followers. Yesterday my wife asked if I was able to "identify" any followers. Out of curiosity, I checked. I was humbled. I'm beginning to think I need to improve the blog now that I see some of the names of those following the blog. But I doubt anything will change. Sorry.

The Royals. Some years ago I was introduced to the phrase, "monkey on one's back." It was during my years in the Air Force. We were taught that challenges/problems could often be thought of as "monkeys on one's back." The key was to getting that monkey off one's back; one of the easier ways was to get the monkey to jump on someone else's back. Right now, the fastest way Prince Andrew could get the pedophilia monkey off his back is to get it on Bill Clinton's back.

Politics: speaking of Bill Clinton. The "witch hunt" is being driven and orchestrated by Hillary. For Hillary it's a three-fer. If she's successful: a) Bill Clinton won't be the only living president impeached; b) she might prevent Trump from winning re-election; c) she herself might be diva ex machina at the DNC convention and go on to win the presidency.

All credibility lost: the official biographer for the "British royal family" clearly states that "soliciting sex from a minor is not pedophilia." Link here. Pretty sick. All credibility lost. She is not a biographer; she is a spinmeister. LOL.

In case you missed it, the general election is scheduled for December 22, 2019:

Two Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- November 19, 2019

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5562563964

Wells coming off confidential list today -- Tuesday, November 19, 2019: 63 for the month; 158 for the quarter:
  • 35606, 1,299, Whiting, Sylte 21-15-2H, Tyrone, t6/19; cum 61K 9/19;
  • 35357, SI/NC, XTO, Lonnie federal 31X-3BXC, Hofflund, no production data,
RBN Energy: butane prices are up and a big draw on butane stocks may be in the offing.
Anything but normal might be the best way to characterize today’s market for normal butane. Butane production at gas processing plants and fractionators is at or near an all-time high. Butane consumption by steam crackers is maxed out, and so were butane exports until new dock capacity came online this fall. Butane inventories? They’ve risen to record levels too, and this summer, butane prices fell to their lowest mark in more than a decade. Now, with winter-gasoline blending season in high gear and new room for export growth, butane prices at Mont Belvieu are up more than 35% from where they stood a month and a half ago. What does all this mean for the butane market this winter? Today, we discuss recent trends in normal butane production, consumption, exports and stocks.
Normal butane (C4), with its four carbon atoms per molecule, is a middle-of-the-pack natural gas liquid (NGL) that’s heavier than ethane (C2) and propane (C3), lighter than natural gasoline (C5+), and is a close cousin to isobutane (IC4), an isomer of normal butane that is a bit more esoteric.

Most normal butane is supplied by gas processing plants and fractionators, which separate NGLs from the raw gas stream (processing plants) and split the mixed NGLs into “purity products” (ethane, propane, normal butane, isobutane and natural gasoline). The balance of normal butane supplies in the U.S. comes from refineries. There are three primary domestic markets for normal butane: (1) as a motor gasoline blendstock rimarily during the colder months of the year, when federal environmental regulations allow gasoline to have a higher Reid vapor pressure, or RVP; (2) as a feedstock for steam crackers to produce ethylene and other petrochemical products; and (3) as a fuel — normal butane, like propane, is a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). And don’t forget exports. With normal butane production significantly increasing during the Shale Era, a big slice of what’s being produced is now loaded onto VLGCs and shipped to Asia, Europe and other overseas markets. (VLGCs are very large gas carriers.)