Saturday, July 14, 2018

Wells Off Line For Operational Reasons

Updates: The Raw Data



November, 2019:
  • DUCs: 919 (up 34 from the 885 in October)
  • inactive well count: 1,726 (up 43 from 1,683 in October)
  • totals, wells off line for operational reasons: 2,645 -- about average for the Bakken -- but up 77 or about 3% from the previous month;
October, 2019:
  • DUCs: 885 (down 31 from the 916 in September)
  • inactive well count: 1,683 (down 421 from 2,104 in September)
  • totals, wells off line for operational reasons: 2,568 -- about average for the Bakken
September, 2019
  • awaiting completion (DUCs), 916 (the November Director's Cut said the number of DUCs in August, 2019, was 930 which is different than that initially reported a month ago (see below)
  • inactive well count; 2,104 ((the November Director's Cut said the inactive well count in August, 2019, was 1,675 which is different than that initially reported a month ago (see below)
  • total: 3,020
  • if this is accurate, the number of wells off line for operational reasons in September, 2019, (3,020) sets a new record
  • it looks like 2,665, wells off-line for operational reasons back in March, 2019, is now the 2nd highest number of wells off-line for operational reasons
August, 2019
  • awaiting completion (DUCs), down 14, to 916
  • inactive well count; down 62 to 1,613
  • total: 2,529  
  • it looks like 2,665, wells off-line for operational reasons is still the all-time high (March, 2019)
July, 2019 
  • awaiting completion (DUCs): down 53, to 930
  • inactive well count: up 122, to 1,675
  • total: 2,605 (up from 2,536 last month) or an increase of 2.7% this represents about 1,000 more wells than will be drilled this calendar year; 2,536 wells is about the number of wells North Dakota will complete every three years
  • it looks like 2,665, wells off-line for operational reasons is still the all-time high (March, 2019)
  • scroll down to original post to see 2018 data and note how historically high the current number of inactive well is -- stunning
June, 2019:
  • awaiting completion (DUCs): down by 2 to 983
  • estimated inactive well count: down 3, to 1,553
  • total: 2,536 (down from 2,541 last month) -- this represents about 1,000 more wells than will be drilled this calendar year; 2,536 wells is about the number of wells North Dakota will complete every three years
  • it looks like 2,665, wells off-line for operational reasons is still the all-time high (March, 2019)
May, 2019:
  • awaiting completion (DUCs): up by 23 to 985
  • estimated inactive well count: down 69, to 1,556
  • total: 2,541 (down from 2,587 last month) -- this represents about 1,000 more wells than will be drilled this calendar year; 2,561 is about the number of wells North Dakota will complete every three years
  • it looks like 2,665, wells off-line for operational reasons is still the all-time high (March, 2019)
April, 2019:
  • DUCs: 962 (down 6 from last report)
  • inactive: 1,625 (down 72 from last report)
  • total: 2,587 (down from 2665 last month; this represents about 1,000 more wells than will be drilled this calendar year; 2,561 is about the number of wells North Dakota will complete every three years)
  • WTI was about $2/bbl higher in April, 2019, compared to March, 2019
  • 2,665 last month was probably an all-time high
March, 2019:
  • DUCs: 968, up 74 from last report
  • inactive: 1,697, up 30 from last report
  • total: 2,665 (up from 2,561 last month; this represents about 1,000 more wells than will be drilled this calendar year; 2,561 is about what North Dakota will complete every three years)
  • I do believe that this (2,665) represents an all-time high)
February, 2019:
  • DUCs: 894, up 27 from last report
  • inactive: 1,667, up a whopping 150 from last report
  • total: 2,561 (up from 2,332 last month, about 800 more wells than will be drilled this calendar year)
January, 2019:
  • DUCs: 867, up 44 from last report
  • inactive: 1,517, up 8 from last report
  • total: 2,384 (up from 2,332 last month, about 800 more wells than will be drilled this calendar year)
December, 2018:  
  • 823, down 134 from last report -- huge decrease
  • inactive: 1,509, up 128 from last report -- wow, look at that jump in the number of inactive wells 
  • total: 2,332 (down slightly from 2,338 in the last report; but 2,332 wells is still way more than the total number of wells that will be drilled in North Dakota this year)
November, 2018:
  • 957, down 2 from previous report
  • inactive: 1,381, up 18 from previous report
  • total: 2,338
October, 2018:  
  • 959, up 31 from previous report
  • inactive: 1,363, up 23 from previous report
  • total: 2,322
May, 2018:  
  • 955, up 13 from previous report
  • inactive: 1,569, down 48
  • total: 2,524
April, 2018:
  • 942, up 26 from previous report
  • inactive: 1,521, down 13
  • total: 2,463
March, 2018:
  • 916, up 15
  • inactive: 1,653, down 1 
  • total: 2,569
February, 2018:
  •  901, up 48
  • inactive: 1,654, down 100
  • total: 2,555
January, 2018:  
  • 853, down 24
  • inactive: 1,554, up 85
  • total: 2,407
December, 2017:
  • 877, down 6
  • inactive: 1,469, down 23
  • total: 2,346
November, 2017:
  • 883, down 6
  • inactive: 1,492, up 21
  • total: 2,375
October, 2017:  
  • 889, down 36
  • inactive: 1,471, up 27
September, 2017:
  • 853, down 10
  • inactive: 1,444, down 54
August, 2017:  
  • 863, down 26
  • inactive: 1,498, up 20
July, 2017:  
  • 889, up 34
  • inactive: 1,478
June, 2017:  
  • 865, up 35
  • inactive: 1,458, down 53
  • total: 2,323
May, 2017:
  • 830, unchanged
  • inactive: 1,511, up 45
  • total: 2,341
April, 2017:  
  • 830, up 141
  • inactive, 1,466, up 167
  • total: 2,296
March, 2017:
  • 689, down 110
  • inactive: 1,299, down 312 (need to correct typo at that post)
  • total: 1,988
February, 2017:  
  • 799, down 3
  • inactive: 1,611, down 67
  • total: 2,410
January, 2017:  
  • 802, down 5
  • inactive: 1,678, up 105
  • total: 2,480
December, 2016:
  • 807, down 32
  • inactive: 1,573, up 54
  • total: 2,380
  • corrected: 9/9/19
November, 2016:  
  • 839, down 21
  • inactive: 1,519, up 16
  • total: 2,358
  • corrected: 9/9/19
October, 2016:  
  • 860, down one
  • inactive: 1,503, down 11
  • total: 2,363
  • corrected: 9/9/19
September, 2016:  
  • 861, down 27
  • inactive: 1,514, unchanged
  • total: 2,375
  • corrected: 9/9/19 
August, 2016:
  • 888, down 24
  • inactive: 1,514, up 42
  • total: 2,402
  • corrected: 9/9/19
July, 2016:  
  • 912, up 25
  • inactive: 1,472, down 14
  • total: 2,384
  • corrected: 9/9/19
June, 2016:  
  • 887, down 44
  • inactive: 1,486, down 98
  • total: 2,373
  • corrected: 9/9/19
May, 2016:
  • 931, up 39
  • inactive: 1,584, down 6
  • total: 2,515
  • corrected: 9/9/19

Original Post
See Director's Cut, May, 2018, data.

From the June 29, 2018, update, now updated through most recent data, adding data for May, 2018:

From most recent data, May, 2018 - May, 2017, most recent to oldest, which brings us up to date:
  • taken from my posts on the blog. In May, 2017, I started posting DUCs and inactive wells on a regular basis. It's too time consuming to go back and fill in the few months in which I did not post data so I'm not going to fill in that bit of missing data. I think the existing data tells the story
  • data below: month/year, DUCs, inactive wells. All data below, including the up/down change were taken directly from the NDIC Director's Cuts
  • range:
    • an outlier, March, 2017: 689
    • otherwise, a low of 799 in February, 2017
    • a high of 955 in the most recent month, May, 2018
  • not graphed, but the trend for the past four months has been up 
    • January, 2018: 853
    • up 48 in February, 2018, 901
    • up 15 in March, 2018, 916
    • up 26 in April, 2018, 942 
    • up 13 in May, 2018, 955
Inactive wells:
  • in data presented, we have never gone above 1,700 inactive wells
  • number of inactive wells in the past three months are among the highest numbers in the data presented
Disclaimer: in a long note like this and with so many numbers, and no triple-checking and no NYT fact-checker, there will be factual and typographical errors.

No comments:

Post a Comment