Monday, March 2, 2015

Reason #1 Why I Love To Blog: The Science Textbook Used By Agore Found -- March 2, 2015

This was sent to me by a reader; it is quite fascinating. It appears global warming alarmists are nothing new. This article, from 1932, must have been from the book Agore read when he was in middle school. An excerpt:

This article is from The North American Review, p. 110, APA: The North American Review. London: Forgotten Books. (Original work published 1932) MLA:   The North American Review. August, 1932. Reprint. London: Forgotten Books, 2013. 


From The Los Angeles Times:
Now you can enjoy your third daily cup of coffee and feel healthy while you do it: According to a new study, that third cup of joe may be good for your heart.
Researchers found that people who drink between three and five cups of coffee a day are likely to have less coronary artery calcium (CAC) than those who drink no coffee at all.
They also found a correlation between people who drink between one and three cups of coffee a day and a reduced prevalence of CAC, according to a paper published Monday in the journal Heart
Participants who drank between three and five cups of coffee a day had the lowest prevalence of CAC with a calcium ratio of .59. Those who drank less than one cup a day had a calcium ratio of .77. Those who drank one to three cups a day had a ratio of .66. And among those who drank more than 5 cups a day, the ratio was .81.
The authors write that their study adds to a growing body of evidence that the moderate consumption of coffee is good for heart health.  
A Note to the Granddaughters

This is kind of fun -- great memories. The Huffington Post highlight fifteen (15) naval stations, air bases, or army posts once could be assigned.

Our family was assigned to #13, Incirlik Air Base, Turkey, for two years.

I was on temporary duty any number of times, #11, at Moron Air Base, Spain, where we bought genuine Seville steel (at inflated prices?).

I visited #1, Marine Corps Base Hawaii, only once.

My wife lived at #4, US Army Garrison Stuttgart, for several years while growing up with her military dad. We visited the post a number of times when we were assigned to Germany many years later.

Of course, it should go without saying, we've visited #5, Miramar, any number of times.

Our son-in-law was assigned to Joint Base Chaleston, South Carolina, #12, just before he separated from the service.

I have a long story about visiting #14, Naval Support Activity Naples, Italy, when I was in college, but that story can wait for another time.

Update From A Reader On "Rents" In The Bakken -- March 2, 2015

Excellent, excellent editorial by Rob Port over at on flaring. Regular readers know my thoughts on flaring.

Bakken Rents

Do you remember that story posted earlier about rents coming down in the Bakken?

From a reader regarding rents in Watford City:
  • Rents are like $2700, $3400, $3700 for 1, 2, 3 bedroom apartments. 
  • Duplex rentals: $4,200/month per side. 
The Road To New England

Regular readers are well aware of this story; it provides a bit more background. RBN Energy was one of the first to explain why the grid "held" this year in New England and why prices have remained relatively low.

Bangor Daily News is reporting:
What a difference a year makes.
Twelve months ago, tumultuous weather in the Northeast caused record natural gas price spikes and forced some power plants to shut for lack of fuel as power producers scrambled to outbid each other for scarce supplies.
This February, the region has shivered through the coldest weather in 81 years, yet gas prices are a fifth lower than a year ago after power generators, learning lessons from last winter, stocked up on extra oil and gas from domestic and overseas sources before the weather turned cold.
New England’s power grid operator, ISO New England, provided incentives to encourage generators to lock in oil and gas supplies early, offering an end-of-season cash payout to cover any excess costs from unused fuel supplies, among other things. Liquefied natural gas was also included in the program for the first time this year.
“Both the region’s power grid and its resources have been operating well this winter, even through the arctic cold, and the winter reliability program has been a big part of that because it helped ensure that resources had fuel to operate when we needed them,” Lacey Girard, ISO New England spokeswoman, said.
ISO New England said 79 oil and dual-fuel units able to burn both gas and oil bought about 4.5 million barrels of oil. In addition, six gas units bought fuel from liquefied natural gas terminals that bring gas in from overseas as part of the current winter reliability program.
Residents in New England should be grateful ISO New England didn't fall for that "global warming" story. LOL. 
At Least Some Integrity

Tweeting now: Susan Rice says Jews were 'singled out' for 'hate' in attack on Paris kosher grocery, contradicting President Obama calling it random - @IssacDovere

And More Honesty

CNBC is reporting:
Buffett already has his money where his mouth is. His famous "Million-Dollar Bet" with hedge fund-focused investment firm Protégé Partners is that a simple S&P 500 index fund managed by Vanguard would beat a mix of five funds of hedge funds over 10 years.
Through seven years, Buffett's index fund is up 63.5 percent while the five funds of funds selected by Protégé are up an estimated average of 19.6 percent, according to a Fortune report in February.
Ghost Riders in the Sky, Dick Dale

Location Of Jamestown Plastics Plant To Be Delayed -- March 2, 2015; Eight (8) New Oil & Gas Permits In North Dakota

Update on the plastics plant to be built in Jamestown, from The Jamestown Sun:
Decisions on the potential location of a $4 billion plastics plant are likely to be delayed until later this year, according to Shane Goettle, project consultant for Badlands NGL.
Badlands NGL announced its intention to build the factory in October. The company indicated it wanted to build the plant outside the Oil Patch and that it intended to reach a decision on a location by the first quarter of 2015.
Earlier post here.

A Squeaker 

Quite a squeaker -- barely closed above 5,000. But the real story is how much the NASDAQ gained in one day to put it solidly above 5,000 -- almost 1%.

Yahoo!Finance is reporting that the NASDAQ bull has room to run:
Part of Najarian’s bullish stance ties into the smartphone explosion. “That connectivity is really key to a lot of what’s driving the Nasdaq,” observes Najarian. Apple’s iPhone is an obvious driver, along with the companies that manufacture memory.  “The SanDisks of the world with the solid state memory and flash memory, that’s huge.  Every cell phone is packed with it, every iPad or [Amazon’s] Fire HD tablet is packed with that stuff.”
The wireless revolution is just part of the story.  The functionality of the internet is another driver. “In 2000, we were doing $4 billion worth of business online.  Now the number is in the hundreds of billions of dollars,” says Najarian, who predicts continued growth as the world moves towards being 100% mobile. “Instead of you being tethered to your desk, walking around with the same kind of computing power now that you had on a desktop in 2000, that’s huge.  It's great for those retailers.  It's great for Uber, Facebook and Tinder.”
Also, there's something called momentum and euphoria and greed. The analogy is when the lottery hits $500 million -- "everyone" starts buying lottery tickets. Same with the market: on a bull run like this a lot of retail investors are jumping in. Worse, a lot of fund managers are jumping in -- they don't want to be seen as missing a bull market.

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.


Active rigs:

Active Rigs119192184205168

Eight (8) new permits --
  • Operators: XTO (4), BR (2), Slawson (2)
  • Fields: Siverston (McKenzie), Elidah (McKenzie), Big Bend (Mountrail)
  • Comments:
Wells coming off the confidential list this weekend, Monday were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Eleven (11) producing wells completed:
  • 26064, 1,516, XTO, Arley 21X-18E, Grinnell, t1/15; cum --
  • 26670, 415, Cornerstone, Martinsen D-3427-6191, Little Butte, t11/14; cum 33K 12/14;
  • 27351, 975, Hess, GN-Beulah-158-98-0508H, Rainbow, t2/15; cum --
  • 27603, 1,824, BR, Bullrush 34-10MBH-A, Elidah, t2/15; cum --
  • 27786, 724, XTO, Ernest 31X-19D, Haystack Butte, t1/15; cum --
  • 27886, 273, Hess, BW-Kraetsch-149-99-1423H-4, Cherry Creek, t1/15; cum --
  • 28325, 1,273, Hess, EN-Freda-154-94-2635H-4, Alkali Creek, t2/15; cum --
  • 28396, 754, XTO, Ernest Federal 31X-19G, Haystack Butte, t2/15; cum --
  • 28397, 519, XTO, Ernest 31X-19H, Haystack Butte, t2/15; cum --
  • 28412, 402, Hess, SC-JCB-154-98-1720H-2, Truax, t2/15; cum --
  • 28576, 518, Hess, EN-Fretheim A-155-93-3334H-4, t2/15; cum --
The following wells are on the "plugged or producing" list:
  • the three WPX Kale Bad Brave wells
  • two more Hess HA-Swenson wells
  • two more Whiting Tarpon Federal wells 
Wells coming off the confidential list Tuesday:
  • 25584, drl, Whiting, Moccasin Creek 14-33-28-3HS, Moccasin Creek, no production data,
  • 27364, 822, EOG, Parshall 76-22H, Parshall, t9/14; cum 50K 1/15;
  • 27365, 907, EOG, Parshall 77-22H, Parshall, t9/14; cum 44K 1/15;
  • 27627, drl, Hess, EN-Farhart-156-93-0409H-2, Baskin, no production data,
  • 27901, drl, XTO, Van Dyke Federal 44X-19B, Bear Den, no production data,
  • 28752, 490, Hunt, Blue Ridge 159-100-4-9H-1, Green Lake, t10/14; cum 18K 1/15;
  • 29036, drl, CLR, Stangeland 2-7H, Crazy Man Creek, producing,
  • 29113, 1,284, Newfield, Helsingborg Federal 153-96-22-27-2H, Sand Creek, t12/14; cum 28K 1/15;

27364, see above, EOG, Parshall 76-22H, Parshall, huge well, but unusual production profile,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

27365, see above, EOG, Parshall 77-22H,  Parshall, huge well, but unusual production profile,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

29113, see above, Newfield, Helsingborg Federal 153-96-22-27-2H, Sand Creek:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

If You Like Your Wind Power, You Can Keep Your Wind Power -- For A Price -- March 2, 2015; Will We See Another Record Set In 2015?

CNS News is reporting:
In contrast to the steep decline in the gasoline price index over the past year (which led to a decline in the overall Consumer Price Index), the seasonally adjusted electricity price index hit an all-time high in January.
In January, the seasonally adjusted price index for electricity was 212.290. That was up from 210.489 in December, which was the record up until then. Before that, the high had been the 209.341 recorded in March of last year.
The annual electricity price index set a record in 2014 of 208.020 up from 200.750 in 2013.
Fossil fuels keep getting cheaper; wind and solar keeps adding to the cost of electricity rates. 

Follow-Up To That RBN Guest Editorial Earlier This Morning -- March 2, 2015

Earlier I posted a link to a guest editorial over at RBN Energy.

I have read that editorial several times now and shared my thoughts with a couple of other readers. I am unable to follow the logic of that writer at the link. I will write more on this later, perhaps. The writer at the link suggests OPEC is willing and able to keep prices of crude oil low for a very long time.

A reader did a bit of research that I should have done. The reader found this story. Back on July 16, 2009, Bloomberg published a piece in which that same writer predicted the price of oil would plummet to $20:
Crude oil will collapse to $20 a barrel this year as the recession takes a deeper toll on fuel demand, according to academic and former U.S. government adviser Philip Verleger.
A crude surplus of 100 million barrels will accumulate by the end of the year, straining global storage capacity and sending prices to a seven-year low, said Verleger, who correctly predicted in 2007 that prices were set to exceed $100.
Supply is outpacing demand by about 1 million barrels a day, he said.
“The economic situation is not getting better,” Verleger, 64, a professor at the University of Calgary and head of consultant PKVerleger LLC, said in a telephone interview yesterday. “Global refinery runs are going to be much lower in the fall. If the recession continues and it’s a warm winter, it’s going to be devastating.”
Crude oil last traded at $20 a barrel in February 2002. Futures were at $61.18 today in New York, having recovered 89 percent from a four-year low reached last December. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is implementing record supply cuts announced last year in response to plunging consumption.
“OPEC don’t realize the magnitude of the cuts they need to make,” which would total about a further 2 million barrels a day, Verleger added. “Storage is going to become tight. It’s not clear if there’s going to be enough storage available.”
It almost sounds as if he was about six years early in his predictions. What he said then (in 2009) sounds very familiar to what is happening today -- except for the fact that when OPEC maintained production -- on purpose -- the price of oil plummeted almost 50%.

So, how did that July 16, 2009, prediction work out? Note the spot price of WTI for the next few months after that date, source: EIA:

As noted often, trying to predict the price of oil is a fool's errand.

Best Bang For The Buck: South Daota School Of Mines & Technology -- WSJ -- March 2, 2015

The link: are prestigious private colleges worth the cost?

Monday -- March 2, 2015 -- NASDAQ Only 18 Points From Hitting 5,000 -- Again


Later, 9:33 a.m. CT: CNBC is reporting --
U.S. stocks traded higher on Monday as investors digested Chinese economic news and U.S. manufacturing data.
The Nasdaq briefly touched 5,000, a level not reached since March 2000 during the tech bubble.
"The news out of China cutting its benchmark interest rate and better-than-expected inflation news out of the euro zone are providing a lift to the U S market," Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Rockwell Global Capital, said in a note.
Original Post

Only 18 points from hitting 5,000 again, last seen many years ago. Inflation-adjusted, the NASCAQ would have to hit 7,000 to reach it's "old" high.

Elsewhere, Market Watch is reporting:
If you’re a retail investor with a keen interest in tainted laminated flooring from China, today should be plenty interesting (more on that below). If not, Monday will probably start off slowly. Just like it ended on Friday. Investors could use this bit of quiet to reflect on what was a sneaky February rally.
Fireworks were really at a minimum, but the climb was freakishly steady. In fact, by the time the closing bell rang, February ended up being the best month for the U.S. market since October 2011. Considering some of the big months we’ve had, that’s saying something. So far this year, global equities are up more than 5%, and the U.S. is actually lagging the eurozone’s near-15% push.
See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

US manufacturing growth slows to 13-month low. Do you really think Janet Yellen will start raising rates with this data?

Low Oil Prices Could Be "Permanent" -- RBN Energy Guest Editorial -- March 2, 2015

Yahoo!Mail is having problems with service in some areas. Link here (a dynamic link).

Rents coming down in the Bakken. Reuters is reporting:
Prices, which only last year rivaled levels in New York City and Geneva, have slipped about 15 to 20 percent in the past two months as dozens of new apartment buildings opened in Williston, Watford City and other oil hub cities.
Growth in demand has slipped because the plunge in crude oil prices has led to cuts in capital spending by energy producers.
There are still about 1,800 energy-related jobs unfilled in the No. 2 U.S. oil-producing state, and there is still demand for apartments. But the accommodation shortage is nothing like it was when the state's oil boom began six years ago. As new developments start leasing, tenants are able to negotiate lower rents.
Active rigs:

Active Rigs119192184205168

RBN Energy: I'm not sure what to make of today's guest "editorial" over at RBN Energy. If this is not tongue-in-cheek or satire, I'm not sure what to make of it.
Alan Greenspan coined the phrase "irrational exuberance" during his tenure as Federal Reserve chairman. He used it in a 1996 speech in reference to the excessively high prices of "dot-com" companies. He worried that assets were overvalued. Four years later, the dot-com bubble burst, confirming his concerns. Presently we are observing the last gasps of irrational exuberance in petroleum. Call it "petro-exuberance." This malady became apparent during a session on oil market issues at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Some panelists clearly had a case of irrational exuberance, an overenthusiasm no different from what we saw at the end of the dot-com and the housing crises.
Claudio Descalzi, chief executive of Eni, and the International Energy Agency's Fatih Birol showed the most distinct symptoms. Both seem under the illusion that oil price levels today are temporary rather than characteristic of a new ceiling that producers will welcome in a year or two. In his remarks, though, Descalzi unintentionally advanced an explanation for recent developments and the likely way forward for global oil markets: "What we need is stability. ... Opec is like the central bank for oil which must give stability to the oil prices to be able to invest in a regular way." His observation, if correct, promises a prolonged period of low prices and a harsh climate for those producing oil.
Much more at the link; a must-read.

For Investors

See disclaimer.  This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here.

There's a bull market somewhere. No less than 23 companies have announced increases in divideds today.

Magnum Hunter misses by $0.03 : Reports Q4 (Dec) loss of $0.24 per share, $0.03 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of ($0.21); oil & gas revenues fell 27.5% year/year to $46.3 mln.

Dakota Plains announces operational and corporate updates. Co announced:
  •  Dakota Plains will bring its crude oil and sand transloading operations in-house effective June 1, 2015, and August 1, 2015, respectively. 
  • Construction of a third 90,000 barrel crude oil storage tank is ahead of schedule and remains on budget; the project is fully funded. The storage tank is expected to be operational by summer 2015 and will increase the storage capacity at the Pioneer Terminal from 180,000 barrels to 270,000 barrels.