For Assad, It Appears To Be "Over" -- NY Times -- December 7, 2024

Locator: 44501SYRIA.

Syria in maps: BBC, December 7, 2024. Link here. 

The Syrian War, New York Times, December 6, 2024. Link here. 

**********************************
Updates

December 8, 2024: officially it's over. Assad resigns and flees to join his family in Moscow.

December 7, 2024, 10:08 p.m. CST: two minutes ago, NY Times is reporting "it's all over" for Assad. Drudge hasn't updated his banner.

December 7, 2024, 9:14 a. m. CST: it is being reported rebels are inside Damascus. If so, it’s over. Turkish-backed Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HST) and allies launched an offensive on Assad's government from the northwest corner of the country last week. 

Mideast map being re-drawn. Iran knows that if it loses Mr. al-Assad and its sway over Damascus, it is game over for its attempt to fortify a crescent of Shiite Muslim proxy forces from Lebanon to Iraq to Yemen that can threaten Israel. Nonetheless on Friday, Iran, after more than a decade of staunch support for Mr. al-Assad, began evacuating top military commanders of its powerful Quds Forces and other personnel from Syria, according to Iranian and regional officials. Some analysts see the hand of Mr. Erdogan in the sweeping advance of the main Syrian rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or the Organization for the Liberation of the Levant. 

Turkey seized an opportunity to increase its influence at a time when Iran was beleaguered, analysts said, and it wants the three million Syrian refugees who fled to its territory because of the civil war to return home. 

Biden is asleep; Harris AWOL; and, Trump in Paris. JD Vance in charge back at home.

December 7, 2024: Assad preparing his “day-of-infamy” speech. Rebels less than a mile outside Damascus.

December 7, 2024: rebels widen assault. Assad rushes forces to protect Homs, Damascus. It will be interesting to see if Assad's troops support him or the rebels. Link here. At time of posting, story was 39 minutes "old."

December 6, 2024: this is a huge story -- Iran is not just evacuating ordinary Iranian citizens, but Iran is pulling their military forces out of Syria. It's hard to believe Assad's days are not numbered. His wife and children have "escaped" to Russia. Wow, as rich as they are, to end up in Moscow. Link here to The WSJ.

December 5, 2024:

Rebels have reached Hama. Syrian's government forces have pulled out of Hama.

Rebels are now on their way to Homs, the last big city before they move to Damascus.

See map below.

Nothing like a good war to learn geography.

Link to The [London] Telegraph.

*********************
Previous

Locator: 44479SYRIA.

December 1, 2024: 

Map from December 1, 2024. As of December 5, 2024, the rebels have taken Hama and are now on their way to Homs.

Investing Like Buffett -- December 7, 2024

Locator: 44505BRK.

These graphics have taught me many things about investing. 

And I like to think I've become a better investor because of these charts.

Broadcom.

Oracle.

Costco.

Walmart.

Apple, Snowflake. And here.

Nvidia, Dow. And here.

Southern Copper.

Various.

AMD.

*******************************
Apple Suppliers

Apple schematic.

Broadcom Vs BRK-B

Locator: 44504AVGO.

One year:

Max:

Ratings -- MSNBC -- December 7, 2024

Locator: 44503MSNBC.

Link here.

Oracle Vs BRK-B

Locator: 44502BRK.

Three. months:

Six months:

One year:

Five years:

 Max:

Syria Update — December 7, 2024

Locator: 44501SYRIA.

Syria in maps: BBC, December 7, 2024. Link here. 

The Syrian War, New York Times, December 6, 2024. Link here. 

**********************************
Updates

December 7, 2024, 10:08 p.m. CST: two minutes ago, NY Times is reporting "it's all over" for Assad. 

December 7, 2024, 9:14 a. m. CST: it is being reported rebels are inside Damascus. If so, it’s over. Turkish-backed Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HST) and allies launched an offensive on Assad's government from the northwest corner of the country last week. 

Mideast map being re-drawn. Iran knows that if it loses Mr. al-Assad and its sway over Damascus, it is game over for its attempt to fortify a crescent of Shiite Muslim proxy forces from Lebanon to Iraq to Yemen that can threaten Israel. Nonetheless on Friday, Iran, after more than a decade of staunch support for Mr. al-Assad, began evacuating top military commanders of its powerful Quds Forces and other personnel from Syria, according to Iranian and regional officials. Some analysts see the hand of Mr. Erdogan in the sweeping advance of the main Syrian rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or the Organization for the Liberation of the Levant. 

Turkey seized an opportunity to increase its influence at a time when Iran was beleaguered, analysts said, and it wants the three million Syrian refugees who fled to its territory because of the civil war to return home. 

Biden is asleep; Harris AWOL; and, Trump in Paris. JD Vance in charge back at home.

December 7, 2024: Assad preparing his “day-of-infamy” speech. Rebels less than a mile outside Damascus.

December 7, 2024: rebels widen assault. Assad rushes forces to protect Homs, Damascus. It will be interesting to see if Assad's troops support him or the rebels. Link here. At time of posting, story was 39 minutes "old."

December 6, 2024: this is a huge story -- Iran is not just evacuating ordinary Iranian citizens, but Iran is pulling their military forces out of Syria. It's hard to believe Assad's days are not numbered. His wife and children have "escaped" to Russia. Wow, as rich as they are, to end up in Moscow. Link here to The WSJ.

December 5, 2024:

Rebels have reached Hama. Syrian's government forces have pulled out of Hama.

Rebels are now on their way to Homs, the last big city before they move to Damascus.

See map below.

Nothing like a good war to learn geography.

Link to The [London] Telegraph.

*********************
Previous

Locator: 44479SYRIA.

December 1, 2024: 

Map from December 1, 2024. As of December 5, 2024, the rebels have taken Hama and are now on their way to Homs.

A Musical Interlude -- This Week's NYC Shooter -- The Real Claims Adjuster -- December 2, 2024

Locator: 44460MUSIC.

Link here.

Veterinary pistols. Link here.

Backpack:

Emoji.

*******************************
Word of the Day

Quick! Etymology of "shark."

Week 48: December 1, 2024 -- December 7, 2024

Locator: 44459TOPSTORIES.

***************************

Top story of the week: 

• Trump is the president, simply waiting to make it official, January 20th
• suggests to Justin Trudeau that Canada may be better off as the 51st state
  
• Turkey-supported rebels defeat the Assad government — by December 8, 2024, Assad had resigned and had fled the country
• earlier, Iran pulled its troops out of Syria
• one assumes the same for Russia (seaport on the west coast of Syria is a Russian port; current status is unknown)
• of note: Turkey supported the rebels; current government of Turkey would like to see Israel defeated and the land returned to anti-Israeli Arabs; the Golan Heights now are center of attention; Israeli forces have moved back into the area with beefed up resources; unclear if Israel has moved east of the Purple Line.
• French government did fall; Macron significantly weakened but still in office; greeted Trump and Jill Biden at re-opening of Norte Dame cathedral, December 7, 2024.
• NYC mayor Adams breaking from other sanctuary cities; 
• will work with Homan / Trump to expedite deportations of criminal element from NYC
• perhaps the killing in broad daylight of a UHC CEO got his attention
  

Top international non-energy story:

• Syria about ready to fall to rebels; Assad's days numbered; what a waste of a life.
  
• Notre Dame opens Saturday, December 7, 2024
• Biden invited; didn't show
• Trump will represent the US
  
• French government fails/falls; Macron on his way out?
• Germany in economic dire straits.
  

Top international energy story:

• EU freezing and running out of natural gas
• OPEC+ delays change in production another three months
  

Top national non-energy story:

• Biden is smiling way more than ever
• Harris is AWOL
• Trump is moving in; Melania was measuring drapes a year ago.
  
• Melania stood by her man.

Top national energy story:

• immigration, deportation panic
• gasoline prices at record lows (as are Biden’s polling approval numbers)

Focus on fracking: current link here. Generally updated late Sunday night.

Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:

• MRO continues to report monster wells; many, better than ever (same as last week).
  

Geoff Simon's quick connects: link here.

Immigration And Deportation -- December 7, 2024

Locator: 44516TRUMP.

Time to change the name of the US Citizenship and Immigration Services to US Department of Border Security and Deportation? 

Denver, San Francisco, Oregon, Los Angeles: it's just a matter of time.

NYC's Mayor Adams said he's breaking with other US sanctuary cities. He needs the cash. Now. 

Amazing. Trump still has almost two months before he's sworn in. And his cabinet and key leaders: mostly highly successful individuals and billionaires who know how to get things done and/or disgruntled key GOP leaders from the state of Georgia. Oh, yes, and Fox News correspondents.

Link here. 

Link here.

Intel -- The View From ARM -- December 7, 2024

Locator: 44515INTEL.

Link here.

For previous posts regarding the Intel debacle, click here.

COST Vs BRK-B -- December 7, 2024

Locator: 44514BRK.

Three months:

Six months:

One year:

Five years:

 Max:

Thoughts On Roth IRA Conversions -- December 7, 2024

Locator: 44513ROTH.

Thinking of converting a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA?

Think again. Forbes, November 28, 2024. 

Also, at WSJ, November 28, 2024. 

Barron's, December 6, 2024.

Trump -- Barron's:  December 2, 2204. 

These articles start appearing about this time every year. It started a few years ago when folks realized that RMDs seem to be so unfair. 

Many folks in my age group have traditional IRAs because "the Roth" was not available when we first started investing to achieve financial independence. So, like many folks, I suppose, I have several IRAs (and other retirement programs, also) that require RMDs. 

My siblings have recently been discussing converting their traditional IRAs to Roth IRAs. 

Be that as it may.

But this is what I find simply amazing: traditional IRAs first became available in 1974. I probably started my first IRA around 1985. So, for forty years -- forty years -- my traditional IRAs have been growing tax-free -- tax-free for forty years. 

In 1998, when Roth IRAs became available, I opened a couple of Roth IRAs, but continued to contribute to my traditional IRAs (because they were doing so incredibly well) as well as the new Roth IRAs, so now I have a mix, but still mostly traditional, simply because they have been around longer (1974 vs 1998 -- 24 years longer). 

And now, after forty years of growing tax-free, the government is asking me to cash in about 4% this year, and pay exorbitantly high taxes on that 4% -- probably a marginal tax rate of 25%? After taking out that 4% I will still have 96% of my traditional IRAs and next year will have to take out somewhere between 5 and 6%, I suppose. 

I don't like paying federal taxes (we have no state income tax in Texas) but I can't get all that upset about having to take RMDs and pay taxes. My wife certainly doesn't mind. I take my RMDs and give her a portion off the top in cash -- cash that she would not have otherwise seen. Likewise, that cash is now moving over to our grandchildrens' accounts. Sure, they would eventually see it -- but now they get the satisfaction of seeing their own personal accounts grow. 

Sure, I could do the same with Roth IRAs, but take distributions when I want, but in the big scheme of things, I just can't get too upset about the requirement for RMDs from traditional IRAs. Forty years of growing tax free and I assume the rate of growth will exceed the annual RMD.

December 7, 1941

Locator: 44512PEARL.  

From generative AI:

Not much "passion" or "emotion" in this blurb -- the pain and suffering, the long term results of American exceptionalism, etc., but it is what it is.