Tuesday, January 31, 2017

Two More Trump Nominees Approved By A Landslide -- January 31, 2017

Interior Department, Ryan Zinke, 16 - 6.
Energy Department, Rick Perry, 16 - 7.

I would mention this to my wife, that Rick Perry was approved by the committee, but I look forward to living a few more years. I am unable to think of one person my wife detests more than Rick Perry. Maybe Vladimir Putin, but it would be close.

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Enterprise To Build iBDH Plant In Mont Belvieu

First reported at the blog back in 2013

So what's an iBDH plant? Data points:
  • a new isobutene dehydrogenation unit
  • Enterprise will also start operations of a new propane dehydrogenation unit dur 2Q16
  • the new iBDH plant: 425,000 tons/year of isobutylene
  • isobutylene: provides feedstock to fill underutilized capacity at Enterprise's exisitng octane enhancement and petrochemical facilities
  • isobutylene: feedstock for lubricants, rubber products, alkylate for gasolien blendstock as well as methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) for export
  • MTBE banned in the US
Meanwhile, Prince Salman's plan dithers and withers waiting for financing.

More On The ExxonMobil - Bass Family - $5.6 Billion - Permian Deal -- January 31, 2017

Rigzone.
  • acreage in "less-developed New Mexico, Delaware basin side of the Permian"
  • ExxonMobil bought out the Bass family's 250,000 acres
  • will add 3.4 billion of boe reserves; in effect, doubling its position in the Permian to 6 billion boe
  • Bass Family: $5.6 billion in shares, along with $1 billion contingency cash payments between 2020 and 2032
  • XOM pays 3.51%; 0.0351 x $5.6 billion = $200 million annually in dividends; lotsa money for fine arts in Ft Worth
  • the deal: priciest acquisition in the Permian this month
  • challenges:
    • geology
    • BLM
My hunch after XOM reported 4Q16 earnings today: XOM is in deep trouble. What could go wrong?
  • "less-developed area of the Permian"
  • geology makes it difficult
  • BLM makes it difficult (thank goodness Trump is POTUS)
Why does this remind me of Chesapeake's experience in the Bakken?

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

Making America Greater Than Ever Before -- Amazon To Build First Air Cargo Hub -- January 31, 2017

The press and US politicians cannot keep up with this.

Seventh full business day for President Trump: Amazon.com plans first air cargo hub; facility at Cincinnati / Northern Kentucky Airpot to create 2,000 jobs.

Wall Street Journal.

UPS reported earnings today.

UPS is toast.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

Amazon.com:
  • first air cargo hub to accommodate its growing fleet of plains
  • ramping up to transport, sort, and deliver its own packages
  • will lessen dependence on UPS and FedEx, both of whose largest hubs are nearby
  • Amazon said it would lease 40 cargo planes, 16 of which are currently in its fleet
  • brought on a dedicated network of 4,000 semi trailers to increase trucking capacity 
  • has a fleet of citizen courier Flex drivers making deliveries in major metro areas
Oh, by the way, did I say UPS was toast?
  • Amazon.com will become ad direct competitor with UPS and FedEx
  • $1.5 billion investment; 2 million square feet
Much, much more at the link.

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Harley-Davidson Unable To Man Up

Cancels Trump visit; doesn't want to deal with protestors. Wow. And these guys sell motorcycles to Hell's Angels.

Sounds like another company run by cupcakes and snowflakes.

Remember the video of Donald Trump during the campaign hoofing it across divided highways to reach a rally where protesters had blocked his way?

Maybe Trump can invite the Hell's Angels to the White House.

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Speaking of Cupcakes, Snowflakes, and Hypocrites

Top Story Over At Google Finance -- January 31, 2017



This is life during wartime. I'm waiting for Iran to test the US Navy.

Life During Wartime, Talking Heads

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Tit For Tat 

The other day, in response to the "Feinstein-Obama-Trump" ban on refugees, Iran said it was banning Americans traveling to Iran.

Oh, oh.

Iran needs American know-how to run their natural gas and oil fields.
In January, Iran's Oil Ministry published list of 29 international companies qualified to bid for oil and gas projects following the lifting of sanctions under a landmark nuclear accord that went into effect last year.

US Army Has Directed US Army Corps Of Engineers To Issue The Easement -- January 31, 2017

Updates

Later, 10:02 p.m. Central Time: sock it to 'em.

Remember me?

PennEnergy: ND bill heightens penalties for rioting against oil pipeline. Not yet passed; proposed.
  • ten years in prison; $20,000 fine -- double current penaltie
Sounds like current law adequate (5 years in prison; $10,000 fine) if enforced, but generally North Dakota snowflakes and cupcakes in judicial robes let folks off with stern warning -- "Uffda, don't do that again." 
Original Post
 
As a reminder, with regard to DAPL, the chain of command for: the US Army Corps of Engineers

This may be of interest in 2017:
With that in mind, this link: US Army Corps of Engineers directed to approve Dakota Access easement.
The acting Secretary of the Army has directed the Army Corps of Engineers to issue the final remaining easement for the Dakota Access pipeline for a disputed crossing at Lake Oahe.
Robert Speer, who was designated as the acting Secretary of the U.S. Army on January 20, 2017, notified Congress Tuesday that the agency will be granting the easement.
The move follows a memo from President Donald Trump on Jan. 24 directing that the agency expedite reviews and approvals for the project, which was proposed to carry Bakken crude 1,172 miles across four states to Illinois, where it can more readily access refineries that handle light sweet crude.
Proponents of the pipeline have said it will take thousands of trucks off the road and represents the safest way of transporting crude, while opponents have questioned whether safety measures at Lake Oahe will be adequate to protect the water, which provides drinking water to the tribe and many others downstream.
Delegates for North Dakota have generally supported completion of the project, seen by industry leaders as critical infrastructure for the Bakken’s future.
Apparently US Secretary of the Army, Patrick J Murphy tendered his resignation January 20, 2017.

I'm having trouble reading the tea leaves, I've haven't really been following this story lately, but what little I've read, the Standing Rock Reservation elders have pretty much thrown in the towel.

One wonders how much the casino has lost over the past few months.

A reader tells me that 600 protesters are due in North Dakota court. How many show up is another issue, but for sure, those 600 are not going to be protesting.

Without those 600 the protesting cause is pretty much dead.

Unless someone finds a judge who wants to put a "stay" on the US Army directive, my hunch is "they" can complete the pipeline in less than a month. 

Minimal Information On Today's Daily Activity Report -- January 31, 2017

Active rigs:


1/31/201701/31/201601/31/201501/31/201401/31/2013
Active Rigs4045146191185

One well coming off confidential list Wednesday:
  • 32766, SI/NC, SM Energy, Thompson Bros Federal 2B-17HN, Burg, no production data,
Eight (8) permits renewed:
  • CLR (4): two Gronfur permits; two Gjorven Federal permits, all in Williams County
  • EOG (4): four Hawkeye permits, all in McKenzie County

Apple Crushes Expectations -- January 31, 2017


From Yahoo!Finance, data points:
  • shares up 3% after hours in response to news
  • revenue: $78.4 billion vs $77.4 billion
  • EPS: $3.36 vs $3.21
  • iPhones: 78.3 units sold; vs 76.3 forecast
  • Apple's highest quarterly revenue ever
  • iPhone's biggest quarter ever
From the linked article:
“We’re thrilled,” said CEO Tim Cook in a press release. “We sold more iPhones than ever before and set all-time revenue records for iPhone, Services, Mac and Apple Watch… and we are very excited about the products in our pipeline.”

The big number to pay attention to with Apple earnings these days, as Yahoo Finance’s Dan Howley notes, is average selling price (ASP) for iPhone. This time, ASP came in at $694.57, beating the $691 ASP of the first quarter last year, and beating Wall Street expectations of $688.

That’s an all-time high for ASP, indicating Apple devotees bought up iPhone 7 and iPhone 7 Plus, despite the controversy over Apple removing its headphone jack.
Wait until tomorrow when all those shorts start covering.

No mention of all that cash overseas.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.

Apple Watch? Fitbit is history:
Fitbit: to cut 10% of workforce; will miss guidance by large margin; shares down significantly in pre-market trading. AAPL earnings come out tomorrow. If I recall correctly, Fitbit had a bad quarter three months ago, also. Did I mention that AAPL earnings were coming out tomorrow. Link over at CNBC.
Over at Macrumors:
  • iPhone 7 is most popular "plus" model Apple has released
  • outsold the 2014 iPhone 6 Plus and the 2015 iPhone 6s Plus
  • the dual camera appears to have been particularly well accepted by customers
  • Apple had underestimated demand for the iPhone 7 Plus, leading to supply and demand issues; impacted sales
Most fun: reading the comments of those folks who simply don't get it.

Apple blows away the analysts. Prior to release:
  • • Mark Moskowitz of Barclays: $76.6 billion
  • • Timothy Arcuri of Cowen and Company: $76.68 billion
  • • Steven Milunovich of UBS: $76.8 billion
  • • Amit Daryanani of RBC Capital Markets: $76.9 billion
  • • Rod Hall of J.P. Morgan: $76.9 billion
  • • Bloomberg News compiled average: $77 billion
  • • Yahoo Finance compiled average: $77.38 billion
  • • Reuters compiled average: $77.4 billion
  • • Brian White of Drexel Hamilton: $77.61 billion
  • • Neil Cybart of Above Avalon: $80 billion 
The actual: $78.4 billion.

*********************************
Apple Execs

Sultans of Swing.

Sultans of Swing (Dire Straits, Drum Cover by Sina

On The Brink -- January 31, 2017

Updates

Later, 9:59 p.m. Central Time: Mexico raises the price of gasoline (see below); Argentina raises electricity tariffs by up to 148%. Financial Times. Trump is going to run circles around the rest of the world, making America greater than it's ever been.

Original Post 

To the list (Ukraine, Crimean, Baltic, Saudi Arabia, Mideast), add Mexico. In The San Diego Union Tribune today, "the reasons behind gasoline protest in Mexico." Some data points:
  • increases in gasoline prices are being accelerated in an ambitious effort to turn around the country's energy sector
  • the recent increase will be followed by another increase at the pump in February, 2017
  • half the population lives in poverty
  • Mexico has a new problem: Trump (Vicente Fox' response on US television certainly did not help the situation)
  • along with South African, Mexicans spend the largest portion of their incomes on gasoline (I assume that was before the recent increase in the price of gasoline); gasoline was already heavily subsidized; gasoline tax was the revenue that ran the country
  • like Venezuela: one of the world's top producers of crude oil, yet one-third to one-half of the country's gasoline is imported from the United States
  • Mexico's treasury has been used to subsidize gasoline -- not education, infrastructure, public services, or health care
  • regular gasoline went up 14%; will go up another 8% in February; in fact, in some areas along the border, some consumers felt the price had gone up 50%
  • gasoline tax: accounts for 50% of the price at the pump; tax was not decreased despite rise in price of gasoline
  • Mexico ranks dead last among OECD nations in collecting tax revenue (similar to problems Greece has)
  • daily minimum wage in Mexico: $3.60/day
  • Mexican congressmen voted themselves a Christmas bonus: $11,000/senator and $6,500/congressman
  • many government officials also receive $250/month in stipends for gasoline -- that's per month (how much do you spend on gasoline each month; something tells me government official are selling these vouchers on the "black market")
  • Nieto's approval numbers down to 12%
  • value of the peso is falling
  • US investment is likely to fall under Trump
  • but Nieto and Vicente Fox both say the US needs Mexico more than Mexico needs the US
Maybe. 

Mega-Loads No Longer Allowed On State Roads In Idaho -- This Chapter Closed -- January 31, 2017

This was a big story six years ago when COP and XOM obtained permits to transport massive pieces of oil refinery equipment to the Canadian tar sands.

No more.

Story over at PennEnergy.

Good, bad, or indifferent: oil companies now have clear-cut rules.

From the article, regarding State Highway 12:
The highway runs through the Nez Perce-Clearwater National Forest and along the Middle Fork of the Clearwater River and its tributary, the Lochsa River. Both rivers are protected under the Wild and Scenic Rivers Act of 1968.
The Nez Perce Tribe, Idaho Rivers United and the legal group Advocates for the West sued the U.S. Forest Service in 2013, saying the federal agency had a duty to regulate the giant shipments. In response, a federal judge ordered a halt to the megaloads while the lawsuit worked its way through the courts.
Meanwhile, declining oil prices reduced demand from companies seeking to use the highway for megaloads.
Justin Trudeau no doubt supports this.

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Management 101
How To Surround Yourself With Best People

From: Scott Adams.
The smartest person I know told me that the secret to business success does NOT necessarily involve hiring the right people. We just think it does. 
The real secret to success is firing the people that you discover to be the wrong fit until eventually you END UP with the right people. No one is psychic enough to do hiring right every time. Job applicants are good at misrepresenting themselves. But a good leader knows which employees to fire and does it quickly and humanely.

Trump fires well. We saw him fire campaign managers as needed to restaff for each phase of his campaign. Lewandowski was perfect for the scrappy first months. Manafort was the right campaign manager to get Trump through the nomination process. And Conway was the right pick as his closer.
Apparently Sally Yates was not the right fit. LOL.

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Word For The Day: Cuirassiers

The Private Lives of The Impressionists, Sue Roe, c. 2006

Cuirassiers: armed cavalry; armed, shielded (breastplate, sometimes a backplate); made "famous" during the Napoleonic wars (1870); pistols displaced the lance; and eventually, swords displaced the pistols, the latter becoming secondary to the former.  

Sophia's word/phrase for the day: flying horse.

BP Embraces The Rockies -- January 31, 2017

From Rigzone:
  • BP moves its "US Lower 48 headquarters" from Houston to Denver
  • BP: "two-thirds of its operated oil and natural gas production and proved reserves in the Rocky Mountain region
  • could BP investing in the Rockies revive natural gas interest in that area?
    • after a surge in activity from 2005 to 2008, the Rockies natural gas story stagnated due to surge in the Marcellus
  • BP: a natural gas company?
    • BP: natural gas comprises 80% of BP's "Lower 48" portfolio
    • BP: globally, natural gas comprises 50% of its portfolio; wants to reach 60% by end of 2019 
    • BP gas projects coming on-line: Trinidad & Tobago; Oman; Egypt; the Shah Deniz 2 project in Azerbaijan
  • BP: five "Lower 48" units
    • Green River: BP's first horizontal since 2015; 1.4 billion boe estimated
    • San Juan Basin: 2.1 billion boe estimated; targeting wet gas in the Mesaverde horizong; gas and oil in the Mancos marine source rock; and, wet gas in the Dakota marine sands; successfully drilled a tri-lateral well "that accessed 14,600 feet of coal"
  • some question decision; BP says looking long-term; not short-term
  • "Rockies" -- six oil / natural gas basins
    • Denver-Julesberg basin -- oil
    • Powder River basin -- oil
    • Green River Overthrust -- natural gas
    • Piceance basin -- natural gas
    • San Juan basin -- natural gas
    • Uinta basin -- natural gas  
  • Rockies:
    • Denver-Julesberg (DJ) basin is the only area expected to see robust growth in 2017 -- analyst
    • Anadarko and Noble Energy will continue to deploy capital in this basin; highly economic
    • Powder River basin: once thought to be "hot" has fallen out of favor
    • Uinta: unique properties; requires much higher commodity prices
    • Niobrara: should grow in 2017; however, midstream capacity is needed
  • Driving all this? US LNG exports
The Bakken: a Rockies basin?

Whiting Looks To Increase Bakken Workforce -- January 31, 2017

This is pretty cool.

Everyone agrees that there is likely to be a shortage of workers going forward in the Bakken.

There are a number of ways to address this challenge.

Whiting is looking at a novel way of increasing the Bakken workforce: more babies.

From northdakotaoilcan, Whiting Petroleum contributed $50,000 towards a new obstetrics room int  a new medical facility at ground zero in the Bakken. Data points:
  • Watford City: McKenzie County Healthcare Systems' new medical center
  • Howard Bonner Memorial Emergency Room with technology for the best, most immediate and effective response in the region
Tongue-in-cheek, of course, but this tells me that Whiting "corporate" is very, very attuned to their folks working in the Bakken: young, growing families. Good for them.

*********************************
New Hampshire Sees Increasing Electricity Costs As Business Threat

From seacoastonline:
  • CAVE dwellers against 
    • hydroelectricity from Canada
    • transmission lines
    • natural gas pipelines
  • case study
    • Newington gun maker Sig Sauer will locate an ammunition-making operation at a permanent site in Jacksonville, Arkansas
    • cited electricity costs in Arkansas are half that of New Hampshire's
  • EIA: 
    • New Hampshire, residential: almost 20 cents/kwh
    • Arkansas, residential: almost 10 cents/kwh
    • New Hampshire, commercial: almost 15 cents/kwhArkansas: 8 cents/kwh

XOM: A Huge Miss -- January 31, 2017

Dilbert: the Canadian option. Speaking of which, a security analyst provides rationale for Trump's action. Again, Trump is a step ahead of the politicians. He understands 9/11.

Politics: Trump is expected to "pull out" of the Paris climate agreement by the end of this week. 

Politics: Dems arguing for more "open borders" into the US won't play well in the heartland. Or among New Yorkers. Maybe in Silicon Valley, but that's about it.

Politics: an LGBT-executive order today is expected today. It will be interesting to see who has accepted his invitations to attend the ceremony. Trump usually signs his executive orders in a "reality-show" venue.

XOM: huge miss; 41 cents vs forecast of 70 cents; top line also a huge miss. This helps explains XOM's "doubling down" in the Permian. I still still XOM entering the Permian was "Johnny-come-late" and too-little, too-late. I still think XOM should have bought CLR years ago.

CEO - barista wage gap: Starbucks CEO earns half-billion dollars in nine years; baristas? Not so much. 

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A Little Mythology

Shell sells $4.7 billion of North Sea assets, from Bloomberg. Needs cash to pare debt from last year's acquisition of BG Group, a $54 billion deal. North Sea buyer: Chrysaor.  From wiki:
Chrysaor was the brother of the winged horse Pegasus and son of Poseidon and the Gorgon Medusa. When Medusa was decapitated by Perseus, both Chrysaor and Pegasus were born at the same time. Little is known about Chrysaor; he was considered a stout-hearted warrior, and his name means "he who bears a golden sword".  
Chrysaor is a private company established in 2007; focused on developing and commercializing oil and gas "incremental resources."

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Oil: oil steady as rising US output offsets OPEC-led cuts.

US shale revolution: BP embraces the US shale revolution, Rigzone. Blog posting here.

Wal-mart: expands free shipping, but has long lost the battle with Amazon Prime.
  • free; no annual fee
  • free shipping applies to orders over $35
  • applies only to specific 2,000 items [the Achilles heel in this announcement]
  • Amazon Prime applies to "all" orders, more than 40,000 items
  • Wal-Mart: "in this day and age, two-day shipping is just table stakes." [Table stakes: the minimum resources needed to enter a market.]
Robots: the new baristas.  Keurig on steroids. I'm not sold. Maybe at high-volume, where speed is not an option -- airport terminals.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:


1/31/201701/31/201601/31/201501/31/201401/31/2013
Active Rigs4045146191185

RBN Energy: new REX Zone 3 capacity and northeast gas markets, part 2.

The market: futures (Dow 30) imply a 50-point drop  when the market opens. This is still a continuation from yesterday but earnings being reported before market opening are not good.

GDPNow: 2.3 percent for 1Q17 -- January 30, 2017.

COP dividend: although not by much, COP raised quarterly dividend from $0.25 to $0.265. 

Monday, January 30, 2017

For The Archives -- Post-Shut-In-Production Bump -- January 30, 2017

For the archives.

This well had two post-shut-in-production bumps in production after being taken off-line. In one case, the bump in production was quite significant despite being off-line for less than a month.

The well:
  • 18664, 746, Whiting, Eide 5-13H, Truax, t8/10; cum 260K 11/16; 
The graphic:



*******************************

Monthly Production Data

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN12-2016313900397033529304911893
BAKKEN11-20162838583718415498609664116
BAKKEN10-2016314526451653911255812086379
BAKKEN9-2016294845482568411284911939826
BAKKEN8-201623284932212561697043002601
BAKKEN7-20162670546732131201551393226114
BAKKEN6-2016311820210248470
BAKKEN5-20161210121030475424142042
BAKKEN4-201630254626501301115901148416
BAKKEN3-2016312711277614201162511368165
BAKKEN2-20162927952742135711867104661314
BAKKEN1-2016312974280813221181611097626
BAKKEN12-2015312900334613251157011277200
BAKKEN11-201530273624991137101109905115
BAKKEN10-2015313162313413421288112625165
BAKKEN9-201530281128881455107211058645
BAKKEN8-201531324332781530106451049161
BAKKEN7-2015201811159995950454806183
BAKKEN6-20153029783186136489998765145
BAKKEN5-201531304630321265897017417136
BAKKEN4-201529312334771079891444944334
BAKKEN3-2015313442345422861175511371291
BAKKEN2-201528372341252371134051330220
BAKKEN1-20152029122301205764636925714
BAKKEN12-20143045494791355412393110161287
BAKKEN11-201421278126472763759661631370
BAKKEN10-201456941169498275427410
BAKKEN9-2014304734469737421535115055206
BAKKEN8-2014314298394840601276912343334
BAKKEN7-2014314247412038921134611141114
BAKKEN6-20143044824460400213614121771347
BAKKEN5-2014314800472953601099939027004
BAKKEN4-201438107781580151
BAKKEN3-201447577401281100
BAKKEN2-20140000000
BAKKEN1-201465585580500
BAKKEN12-2013791221831010
BAKKEN11-201311171890100
BAKKEN10-2013133330000
BAKKEN9-201326185818121391548736231786
BAKKEN8-201331224022211586657947471741
BAKKEN7-2013312146218212706003584567
BAKKEN6-201330239728731183585630802687
BAKKEN5-201331224217571220274426510
BAKKEN4-2013302413262010435452535514
BAKKEN3-20133124112359104055754705780
BAKKEN2-2013282363220375753284910335
BAKKEN1-2013312925300199366056102416
BAKKEN12-2012312954307084658855526279
BAKKEN11-2012111310107745625141881608
BAKKEN10-20123025262689807528120213175
BAKKEN9-2012292453250285753811215175
BAKKEN8-201231271229161145611212894733
BAKKEN7-20123125582778878698131223766
BAKKEN6-201230273724181047673641992447
BAKKEN5-201231288529561055702157431185
BAKKEN4-201230296531061052694950561803
BAKKEN3-20123130432697127058524944817
BAKKEN2-201229303928451508639163070
BAKKEN1-20123135033961138470106804113
BAKKEN12-201126337933841203456435401024
BAKKEN11-20112633513137131145253584941
BAKKEN10-201130351239681754707454611613
BAKKEN9-201130355934852092791459291985
BAKKEN8-201131382541311880966926467023
BAKKEN7-20113140523397229811519011519
BAKKEN6-20112944534767188011212011212
BAKKEN5-20113145254668177910282010282
BAKKEN4-20112952425292196711213011213
BAKKEN3-201128475540921179642206422
BAKKEN2-201128313938181091764907649
BAKKEN1-20113072376866256519177019177
BAKKEN12-201021469043871491851908519
BAKKEN11-20103067357019216613572013572
BAKKEN10-20103193089008413919197019197
BAKKEN9-201027986110079352619148019148
BAKKEN8-2010311710817347677834818034818
BAKKEN7-20104404631665348480004800

Idle Rambling -- Nothing About The Bakken -- January 30, 2017

I couldn't possibly be in a better mood. The weather probably has something to do with it.

Some say 2016 was the hottest year on record. I don't know. But after today -- 75 degrees in north Texas -- no wind -- no clouds -- and a perfect day for biking, this is what I have to say about global warming: embrace it. I am unaware of any single person (or married person, for that matter) in north Texas who is upset with the weather. It's my understanding we can expect a similar day tomorrow.

Carpe diem.

Last week we had a bit of rain; I was caught in a thunderstorm; rode home well after dark; found myself in a small creek but the bicycle and I made it. But what a mess. We live in a small apartment, no garden hoses. How do I wash the bike? Some folks in a similar situation go to local car wash. But then I remembered, Sophia lives in a house. With outside water and garden hoses. And, Sophia, who will be three years old in July, loves playing in the water.

Perfect.

Sophia can wash my bike!



A good washing on the patio.


More cleaning and drying; I put the bike back on the rack for easier access. 


Finally, a little cleaning / lubricating spray.

********************************
Freakout

I caught the first four (4) minutes of CNBC's "Fast Money" this afternoon, and I'm sure that's exaclty what put me in such a great mood. The Trump rally is unprecedented. Unprecedented. 20,000.

Today, after an incredible roller-coaster of a weekend, the market lost half-a-percent; some indices might have lost a percent. The "Fast Money" crowd absolutely freaked out. You have got to be kidding. Solidly over 20,000 on Trump's third full business day in office, after being mired at 18,000 for six years under Obama, and today a half-percent loss and folks are freaking out. Professionals, at that. [Update: I was wrong, really wrong, that's why this is not an investment site; see first comment -- six years ago the market was at 11,000. Again, for "professionals" to "freak out" when the Dow pulls back a bit after this incredible run under President Obama and which continued to some extent after Donald Trump was elected, it boggles the mind. I guess everyone was hoping for more. I don't know.]

I need to watch Johnny Depp, Fear and Loathing, Hunter S Thompson. These guys, the "Fast Money" crowd are nuts.

Not only that, the market recovered nicely by the end of day.

Not only that, Hillary is not president.

**********************************
Trump Is Not Like The Rest Of US

Nor is:
  • Steve Jobs (RIP)
  • Mike Bloomberg
  • Richard Branson (Virgin)
  • Bill Gates
  • Al Davis
  • Bill Belichick
Forty-seven percent of Americans can't figure that out. Nor can:
  • coastal cupcakes
  • Senate snowflakes (GOP and Dems)
  • the mainstream media
  • Joe Biden 
********************************
Scott Adam's Blog

The Canadian option.

Everything Went Well -- January 30, 2017

After President Trump put the Dakota Access Pipeline back in play, officials from the US State Department, Washington, DC; the governor's office, Bismarck, ND; and, the Bureau of Indian Affairs, US Department of Labor, Washington, DC, flew over the proposed route last week.

At the press briefing after the aerial reconnaissance, all officials said the flight went very, very well.

Photo released later:


Huge thanks to a reader for sending me the photo.

WPX With Permits For Four More Wells In Spotted Horn -- January 30, 2017

Graphic here:


Other wells in this immediate area:
  • 28984, 1,849, WPX, Mandaree 24-13HY, t9/15; cum 228K 11/16;
  • 28983, 2,222, WPX, Mandaree 24-13HD, t9/15; cum 424K 11/16;
  • 28982, 823, Mandaree 24-13 HZ2, Three Forks second bench, 46 stages, 10 million lbs, t9/15; cum 93K 11/16;
  • 28981, 1,642, Mandaree 24-13HZ, t9/15; cum 230K 11/16;
  • 28875, 1,138, Mandaree 30-31HA, t11/14; cum 243K 11/16;
  • 28874, 367, Mandaree 30-31HW, t1/15; cum 123K 11/16;
  • 19603, 332, Mandaree 30-31H, t5/11; cum 477K 11/16;
And, yes, there was a small bump in production in #19603 after being off-line while neighboring wells were fracked.

Bakken 2.0: Twenty-Eight (28) Permits Renewed -- January 30, 2017

Active rigs:


1/30/201701/30/201601/30/201501/30/201401/30/2013
Active Rigs3845146190186

No wells coming off the confidential list Tuesday.

Seven new permits approved:
  • Operators: WPX (4), Whiting (3)
  • Fields: Spotted Horn (Dunn), East Fork (Williams)
  • Comments:
Twenty-eight (28) permits renewed:
  • EOG (9): six Sidonia permits; three LIberty wells; all in Mountrail County
  • QEP (5): five Tipi V permits, in McKenzie County
  • Resource Energy Can-Am (4): a Strom permit, a Coronet permit and two Marauder permits, all in Divide County
  • Murex (3): a Barrett Leigh, a Michael Douglas, and a Patricia Ann permit, all three in Williams County
  • CLR (2); two Salem permits in Williams County
  • Sinclair (2): two Ersa Federal permits in McKenzie County
  • Hunt: a Patten permit in Mountrail County
  • Crescent Point Energy: a CPEUSC Lowe permit in Williams County
  • Hess: an EN-Rehak-LE permit in Mountrail County
One producing (DUC) reported as completed:
  • 31906, 1,670, BR, CCU Burner 1-1-26MBH, Corral Creek, t12/16; cum --

Post-Shut-In-Production-Jump -- January 30, 2017

For the archives.

First, the spreadsheet:

Monthly Production Data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN11-20163036383620072156478182
BAKKEN10-201631383938117697969790
BAKKEN9-201627320032651885566846680
BAKKEN8-201631323731743018454339690
BAKKEN7-2016262760275822556550840
BAKKEN6-2016304451446717928691060
BAKKEN5-201631402740112923401911243
BAKKEN4-201630384737962632483145910
BAKKEN3-20163127772772341423109184
BAKKEN2-201612186518491461158942120
BAKKEN1-2016131495151923100284751
BAKKEN12-201531391739316225741409917
BAKKEN11-20153039893976430361900896
BAKKEN10-20153141454136723938362070
BAKKEN9-20153038373885205430022456306
BAKKEN8-2015315881609532689166430
BAKKEN7-201527215902127865532409423593285
BAKKEN6-20150000000
BAKKEN5-201500210000
BAKKEN4-201553813608386275626
BAKKEN3-201500001600
BAKKEN2-20150000000
BAKKEN1-2015166317101
BAKKEN12-20142318432044985335633560
BAKKEN11-201428293830801825623262320
BAKKEN10-201431506548962959731873180
BAKKEN9-201425279427831530217621760
BAKKEN8-20142623432273893244424440
BAKKEN7-201431307734621487733073300
BAKKEN6-20143057865494243510337103370
BAKKEN5-20143053065307234632273086141
BAKKEN4-201423429142201481425542550
BAKKEN3-201426272025452347304030400
BAKKEN2-20140000000
BAKKEN1-20140000000
BAKKEN12-20130020000
BAKKEN11-2013319190202
BAKKEN10-2013317260101
BAKKEN9-2013615716265842658
BAKKEN8-20131760271312092090
BAKKEN7-20131220882120579219921990
BAKKEN6-201330856284592563401040100
BAKKEN5-201331630962892925334733470
BAKKEN4-2013284529451139002992990
BAKKEN3-2013612851801102816160
BAKKEN2-201319534358032204240724070
BAKKEN1-2013291425613679644212397123970
BAKKEN12-2012251030799284204382038200
BAKKEN11-201291045167217259590
BAKKEN10-20122920591576680251802518
BAKKEN9-20121553088924240
BAKKEN8-20123125903178767250825080
BAKKEN7-20123129242869586292129210
BAKKEN6-20123030112878626247024700
BAKKEN5-2012288004731816276270
BAKKEN4-2012737370161550
BAKKEN3-20122914411177169220
BAKKEN2-2012291158118819610100
BAKKEN1-201231190221722567163130
BAKKEN12-20113118161822256149310900
BAKKEN11-20113022942195611268722970
BAKKEN10-20112823222734549267123030
BAKKEN9-20112821382153629274723860
BAKKEN8-20112924572010511364032670
BAKKEN7-20113125332859718354131390
BAKKEN6-20112927542432830421438430
BAKKEN5-20112831613134702391935550
BAKKEN4-20112618522120650213217940
BAKKEN3-20113129302864700330329000
BAKKEN2-20112725342503723274523940
BAKKEN1-20113130732933783375833550
BAKKEN12-20103131343004987385634820
BAKKEN11-20102931453122765344730730
BAKKEN10-20103133453992924398935860
BAKKEN9-20103033922826929389235020
BAKKEN8-201031369437901042363732340
BAKKEN7-201031453547701527557051670
BAKKEN6-201027342731871285332229770
BAKKEN5-20103039534201902200016100
BAKKEN4-20103030162850448200016100
BAKKEN3-20103139643815900140610030
BAKKEN2-201028396037281050466329341365
BAKKEN1-201028561056971682691665580
BAKKEN12-200930525251774005723724474609
BAKKEN11-20091431943517904412703729
BAKKEN10-200931800078202406000
BAKKEN9-20093010644105333870000
BAKKEN8-200931770074769649000

Observations, no comments:
  • 25,065 boe/month, July, 2015
  • 6,284 boe/month, October, 2014
  • Note: no bump-up in production in May, 2014, despite the well being off-line for 5 - 7 months; it has been said that "all" oil wells show a bump in production when they come back on-line after being shut in for a significant period of time. In fact, production actually decreased after being off-line for significant period of time.
  • it should be noted that July, 2015, was this well's best production, doubling production after the well was first fracked; generally, that's when max production is noted -- after first frack
The well:
  •  17618, 881, Oasis, Langved 5393 11-3H, t8/09; cum 296K 11/16;
How I found it: