Tuesday, March 16, 2021

Parting Shot -- March 16, 2021


March 17, 2021: Biden owns it -- link here:

Original Post 

Do we even need to provide a link?

Off the net. Good luck to all. See you in the morning.

Global Supply / Demand

Random thoughts:

  • Saudi Arabia: seems desperate to find revenue streams other than that related to oil and gas; can't survive on $60-oil; solar; petro-chemical, stock market; those fields are very old.
  • Russia: domestic demand crimping exports.
  • Mexico: a basket case
  • Venezuela: ditto
  • Canada: Keystone XL killed
  • China: huge demand -- demand will grow
  • India: huge demand -- demand will grow
  • Iran: looks like US won't be relaxing sanctions any time soon
  • Brent / North Sea: something fishy going on?
  • prior to the US shale revolution, let's say back in 2000 or earlier, was there a lot of talk about Peak Oil?
  • at $60-oil: maybe three US crude oil basins: Permian, Powder River, (Eagle Ford), Bakken
  • at $90-oil: any number of other US shale plays
  • Nothing to see here; just thinking out loud. 

Southern Surge

Perhaps it will turn into nothing, but wouldn't it be interesting if the southern surge becomes a bigger story than anyone thought possible? The story was not carried by any news outlet except Fox for a "long" time -- even the LA Times was not reporting it. Then all of a sudden, front page on The WSJ ...

Is it just a Texas story? Or is it more ...

If Mexico implodes ...

A musical interlude is needed .... desperately needed ... I'm getting too far ahead of my headlights ...

Oh-Oh: PLUG Nickel; St NKLA -- March 16, 2020

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

NKLA, link here

Plug, link here. And, over at Investor's Business Daily

PLUG stock plunged after the market close on March 16, as the company announced it was restating financial statements for fiscal 2018 and 2019. Shares are not in buy range nor are they currently forming any base patterns.

The company said it found accounting errors mostly related to noncash items, including how it classified some costs. Plug Power said it will also restate quarterly filings for 2019 and 2020. It added that no misconduct was detected.

"The revised accounting will change how the company accounts for certain transactions and items, but is not expected to impact the company's cash position, business operations or economics of commercial arrangements," Plug Power said in a statement.

The company said previously stated targets remain unchanged, including gross billings of $475 million in 2021, $750 million in 2022 and $1.7 billion in 2024.

Plug Power's relative strength line has come down from its highs in January, but is trending upward again. Its RS Rating is a perfect 99. With a mediocre Composite Rating of 54, Plug Power ranks No. 18 in the Energy-Alternative-Other industry group.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Wine, Beer, Water --- In Perspective

Texas, NFE, Floating Natural Gas Liquefaction Solution -- Motley Fool And Reader Update -- March 16, 2021

From Motley Fool today:

Shares of New Fortress Energy rallied more than 27% by 3 p.m. EDT, today, Tuesday, March 16, 2021. 
Fueling the energy infrastructure stock was its fourth-quarter results and an analyst upgrade. So what New Fortress Energy reported slightly weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter results as the energy infrastructure company broke even, while analysts expected a $0.04 per share profit. 
However, the market overlooked that miss because of the company's optimistic outlook. 
New Fortress Energy noted that it has now announced three separate growth transactions valued at $5.1 billion. These include the previously announced Hygo Energy Transition and Golar Energy Partners  acquisitions from Golar LNG. 
It's also developing the Suape Terminal and announced a final investment decision on a floating natural gas liquefaction solution, Fast LNG. It expects that project to be operational by the end of next year
Those moves led Stifel to upgrade the stock from hold to buy, setting a $50 price target (though that's now $4 below the current stock price). While Stifel warns that "execution risk is still a challenge," the company has several catalysts on the horizon, making its value proposition "compelling." 

For the story on NFE and the Suape Terminal, see this press release. Wiki entry for Suape Port, Brazil, is here. FAST LNG press release here.

A reader has been following this story for quite some time, and sent me the following today:

Long story short, NFE has purchased two jack up drill rigs - originally costing $500 million  each -  for $30 million per. 
They are heading to a Texas shipyard where a  1.4 million tonne per year (mtpa) modular LNG train will be placed onboard each. See story here.
Rigs will then be towed to a shallow water gas field (not yet picked, but likely shallow water GOM), and rig will drill new gas wells, liquefy natgas  onboard, send it to adjacent LNG ship used as storage, and product will be offloaded and delivered via standard LNG ship.

Brilliantly simplistic.

Using the Australian Prelude for comparison (not a complete apples-to-apples comp, but close), Prelude cost ~$15 billion, produces 3.6 mtpa, and took over a decade to get online
On the other hand, NFE's units will cost $500 million each, produce 1.4 mtpa, and be ready by next year (2022). 
They figure the overall cost to them for the LNG will be about $3.50/mmbtu, which is about half price of LNG selling point right now.

Much more could be said, not least being the potential for  setting these floating plants offshore smaller, out of the way gas fields worldwide and producing cheap LNG for growing, local markets. 
Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines are especially promising markets.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.  

Back in 2016, liquefaction LNG export terminals were a big deal. A list of proposed terminals was posted here

Meanwhile, Delaware River Basin Commission -- The Gibbstown Dock
From: Wyalusing, Bradford County, Pennsylvania
To: Gibbstown, New Jersey

Link here

The Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC) voted on Wednesday to approve a permit for construction of Delaware River Partners LLC's controversial marine terminal in Gibbstown, New Jersey, that will be capable of exporting liquefied natural gas (LNG).

The proposal is to transport LNG via truck or train to the Gibbstown dock from a plant that New Fortress Energy Inc is developing in Wyalusing in Bradford County, Pennsylvania, that would liquefy natural gas from the Marcellus Shale.

The LNG would then be exported by ship from the Gibbstown terminal to customers in the Caribbean and elsewhere.

Headlines: Wall Street Journal -- March 16, 2021

Class of 2025: admissions selection chaotic. Link here.

College admission season is crazier than ever. That could change who gets in.

By waiving SATs and ACTs, highly selective schools invited an unprecedented wave of applications, upending the traditional decision process Ivy League schools and a host of other highly selective institutions waived SAT and ACT requirements for the class of 2025, resulting in an unprecedented flood of applications and what may prove the most chaotic selection experiment in American higher education since the end of World War II.

The question hanging over higher education this month is whether this influx will permanently change how colleges select students and, ultimately, the makeup of the student population.

Interviews with college-admissions officials and public and private high-school counselors point to an epic effort behind the scenes to make tough judgment calls at the highest speed. Colleges send out the bulk of their decision notices in March and early April, but it won’t be widely known how the incoming freshman classes will look until late summer or early fall. Added to the uncertainty will be whether students who deferred enrollment during the last admissions cycle will decide to enter school this year.

Harvard University received more than 57,000 freshman applications for next fall’s entering class, a 42% year-over-year jump. Yale, Columbia and Stanford universities were so overwhelmed they also pushed back the date to announce admission decisions. The University of Southern California’s applications pool beat the prior record by 7%. And New York University topped 100,000 applications, up 17% from last year.

Less than two full months in office, President Biden owns it. Link here. Tea leaves: "Dream Act" on back burner. Along with surging gasoline prices, it's been a good two months for the new president.

New York taxes. Link here. Tea leaves: I-95 south to Florida will be busier than ever this summer.

Lego. Link here. Pretty amazing, huh? One of my frequent posts this past year: Lego. 

Ovintiv With Two New Permits; Active Rigs Jump To 17 Today -- March 16, 2021

Active rigs (see this post for list of operators):

Active Rigs1757655847

Two new permits, #38209 - #38210, inclusive:

  • Operator: Ovintiv
  • Field: Westberg (McKenzie)
  • Comments: Ovintiv has permits for two Rolla wells in lot 4 section 1-152-97; between 425' and 445' FNL and 462' FWL;

One more EOG permit cancellation to add to the long list yesterday:

  • 34335: an Austin permit in Mountrail County

Eleven permits renewed:

  • BR (7): four Saddle Butte permits and three Curtis permits, all in McKenzie County;
  • Hess (4): four Hamilton permits in Dunn County;

One production well completed:

  • 37204, drl/A, BR, Superbad 1A-MBH-ULW, Hawkeye, first production, t--; cum --;

With all the EOG permit cancellations, a reader asked if EOG had quit drilling in the Bakken. My reply:

It appears that EOG has quit drilling in the Bakken, at least for 2021.

EOG's 4Q20 corporate presentation, slide 44: EOG has plans for ZERO rigs and ZERO frack spreads in the Bakken.

On that slide they state they have 255 undrilled "PREMIUM" locations in the Bakken.

I haven't followed EOG very much. The few notes, when I did follow EOG, are here.

Number Of Active Rigs In North Dakota Jump -- Now At 17 Active Rigs -- March 16, 2021

First things first: our high school freshman granddaughter plays on the high school varsity girls soccer team. One week ago, they secured their 13th consecutive "district" championship. They moved on to regionals and won their first game yesterday, against Denton, TX, scoring 4 - 0. Our granddaughter, one of two freshman on the varsity team, scored one of the four goals. Whoo-hoo!

Record number of Covid vaccine doses delivered yesterday, more than 7 million doses were distributed yesterday (as reported today). This is the first time more than 7 million doses have been distributed in one 24-hour period.






Doses of vaccine distributed to health facilities

Change from day before

Vaccinations given

Change from day before

Percent of distributed vaccine that is actually administered

Doses received in past week, current Monday from previous Tuesday

Average number of doses given / day in past seven days


March 16, 2021







March 15, 2021









March 14, 2021







March 13, 2021







March 12, 2021







March 11, 2021







March 10, 2021







March 9, 2021







March 8, 2021








Active rigs:

Active Rigs1757655847


  • WPX: 1
  • Petro-Hunt: 1
  • CLR: 4
  • MRO: 4
  • Oasis: 1
  • Whiting: 1
  • Hess: 3
  • Slawson: 1
  • Crescent Point Energy: 1

Online Quiz: Vern Whitten Photographs -- March 16, 2021

An online quiz from Vern Whitten:

Link here

Without question, #8 of the nine slides was my favorite: the confluence of the Missouri River and the Yellowstone River.

I have fond memories of the confluence. Several years ago, my brother dropped brother-in-law Terry and me off some miles south of the confluence so we could canoe up to the confluence itself. I don't recall how many miles upstream, but it was a good four hours of paddling. 

It was an incredibly beautiful day and an incredibly relaxing trip.

Most remarkable is the very muddy Yellowstone and the very blue Missouri River at the confluence, and easily seen in the photograph by Vern Whitten. 

By the way, these photos are probably of recent vintage. See how many oil wells / rigs / pads you can spot.

Again, Vern would love to hear from you. Send him a note.

Contact info below.

Vern Vern Whitten Photography

(701) 261-7658

Yesterday's Daily Activity Report Posted -- March 16, 2021

Sixteen permits canceled:

  • EOG:
    • nine Austin permits in Mountrail County
    • six Burke permits in Mountrail County
    • one Clearwater permit in Mountrail County

Six permits renewed:    

  • Hess (3): three EN-Abrahamson permits, in Mountrail COunty
  • Petro-Hunt (2): two Blikre permits in Mountrail County
  • Liberty Resources Management: one McGinnity permit in Williams County

Retail Sales Collapse In February, 2021; And Then There's This -- March 16, 2021

Link here. More stimulus needed. 

And then there's this.

  • Supercharged economy leaves global supply chain "stretched thin." Link here
  • some containerships sent north as port of Los Angeles hits capacity; link here;
  • new video shows massive scope of California box-ship traffic jam; link here;
  • four charts show the effects of West Coast port congestion and supply chain delays; link here;
  • Port Congestion: ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, March 8, 2021; link here;
    • detention and demurrage charges rise as regulators circle;
    • container lines ordered to explain detention, demurrage assessment;
    • LA-LB congestion to clear by late spring: terminal operators;
    • LA-LB truckers urge suspension of detention and demurrage
    • no let-up in e-commerce demand for expedited Asia services;
      elevated Asia import volumes won't let up;


Top-ranked dividend champions, SeekingAlpha, March 15, 2021.

  • top three: JNJ, PG, ADP
  • 4 - 16: MDT, GD, PEP, CL, SYK, WMT, ECL, APD, ITW, KO, EMR, MMM, RTX

Warren Buffett: buybacks appear to be accelerating; round numbers? $2 billion / monthly?

FuelCell Energy:

  • collapsed 8% yesterday; falls another 12% in early morning trading today; earnings disappoint, but that's just the headline; the real news is even worse;
    • forecast: a loss of four cents; actual: a loss of six cents
    • previous quarter (3Q20): forecast a loss of seven cents; actual, a loss of eight cells;
    • a year ago: a loss of three cents;
  • look at this: revenues --
    • forecast: $18.8 million
    • actual: $14.9 million (missed by 26.5%)
    • one year ago: $16.3 million
  • wiki;

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.  


US LNG exports: to Asia surged by 67% in 2020. Link to Tsvetana Paraskova

  • during the pandemic
  • will only "improve" in 2021;

Mexico's announcement of new oil discovery: political, non-story

Brent: North Sea oil and gas groups cut investment by £3 billion, $4.2 billion
something fishy going on with Brent?

Mexico (link above):

Despite the efforts of the government to stabilize Pemex operations by injecting roughly $17 billion in the last two years, the state oil company has been unsuccessful at increasing its crude production.

During 2020, the company managed to keep output close to 1.6 million b/d, but consistent underinvestment in exploration has led to a dramatic drop in the country's reserves from almost 45 billion boe in 2001 to less than 16 billion boe in 2020, according to CNH data.

According to S&P Global Platts Analytics, Pemex production is expected to average 1.66 million b/d through 2030.

Southern Surge

I try to scan the LA Times headlines on a daily basis looking for articles on the Southern Surge. I have never seen any "southern surge" headlines over at the LA Times. Apparently, if it's a problem, only in Arizona and Texas. 

Tea leaves suggest this sets back the Dream Act. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

"From The Before Times"

Link here.

The S&P 500 is surfing yet another all-time high, currently up over 70% from the worst depths of the coronavirus crash a year ago and around 17% up from the before times.

Covid isn’t over, and people aren’t all back to work, but BlackRock, the biggest money manager in the world, is bullish on stocks, even in the face of inflation concerns.

In a note Monday, the firm said that it was overweight U.S. equities and has a current view of an economy and market that’s beyond a “recovery.”

“We see the path out of the Covid-19 shock as a ‘restart’ – not a typical business cycle ‘recovery,’” a BlackRock note to clients said Monday. This is “a distinction that matters for markets.”

This outlook is leading BlackRock to push further into cyclical assets and “bolster our pro-risk stance over the next six to 12 months,” the firm said.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.  

"Damn The Torpedoes, Full Speed Ahead" -- Daughter Wells Don't Produce As Well As Parent Cells -- Another Meme -- March 16, 2021

This page will not be updated.

The CLR Gordon Federal wells are tracked here.

The wells:

  • 36098, F/A, CLR, Gordon Federal 10-5H1, Haystack Butte, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 89K 1/21;
  • 36097, F/A, CLR, Gordon Federal 11-5H, Haystack Butte, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 84K 1/21;

Compare the parent well with the daughter wells.

By the way, it's one parent well; 23 daughter wells.  

So far, the four completed/reported daughter wells have each produced significantly more oil in three months than the parent well produced in thirteen years.

Parent well:

  • 16683, IA/224, CLR, Federal Jorgenson 14-5H, Haystack Butte, t12/07; cum 71K 2/20; inactive since 2/20; remains off line 1/21;

So, the parent well has produced all of 71,000 bbls of crude oil since being drilled in early 2007. 

Compare that with the daughter wells reporting today, posted above:

  • 36098: 89K in three months;
  • 36097: 84K in three months;
  • 36054: 106K in less than three months;
  • 36099: 106K in three months; 


PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare


PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

36054: note -- 32K over 19 days extrapolates to 51K over 30 days.

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare


PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

By the way, since most folks won't click on the "Gordon Federal" link above, here are the twenty-three Gordon Federal "daughter" wells:

  • 36107, loc-->EXP-->renewed, CLR, Gordon Federal 1-5H, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; middle Bakken; renewed February 22, 2021;
  • 36106, loc-->EXP-->renewed, CLR, Gordon Federal 2-5H1, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; Three Forks B1; enewed February 22, 2021;
  • 36105, loc-->EXP, CLR, Gordon Federal 3-5H, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; middle Bakken;
  • 36104, loc-->EXP-->renewed, CLR, Gordon Federal 4-5H1, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; Three Forks B1; renewed February 22, 2021;
  • 36103, loc-->EXP-->renewed, CLR, Gordon Federal 5-5H, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; middle Bakken; renewed February 22, 2021;
  • 36102, loc-->EXP, CLR, Gordon Federal 6-5H1, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; Three Forks B1;
  • 36101, loc-->EXP, CLR, Gordon Federal 7-5H, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; middle Bakken; bottom hole, 4-148-97;
  • 36100, loc-->EXP, CLR, Gordon Federal 8-5H1, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; Three Forks B1;
  • 36099, loc-->F/A, CLR, Gordon Federal 9-5H, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; middle Bakken; first production, 11/20; t--; cum 77K 12/20;
  • 36098, loc-->conf, CLR, Gordon Federal 10-5H1, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; Three Forks B1; producing; big well;
  • 36097, loc-->conf, CLR, Gordon Federal 11-5H, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; middle Bakken; producing; nice well;
  • 36096, loc-->conf, CLR, Gordon Federal 12-5H1, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; Three Forks B1; producing nice well;

  • 36054, dr-->F/A, CLR, Gordon Federal 13-8H, Haystack Butte, 2560-acre; 4/5/8/9-148-87; middle Bakken; spud, July 30, 2019; cease drilling, October 16, 2019; bottom hole, 9-148-97; first production, 11/20; t--; cum 78K 12/20;
  • 36055, drl-->conf, CLR, Gordon Federal 14-5H1, Haystack Butte, producing, nice well;
  • 36056, drl-->conf, CLR, Gordon Federal 15-8H, Haystack Butte, producing, nice well;
  • 36057, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 16-5H1, Haystack Butte,
  • 36058, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 17-8H, Haystack Butte,
  • 36059, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 18-5H1, Haystack Butte,
  • 36060, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 19-8H, Haystack Butte,
  • 36061, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 20-5H1, Haystack Butte,
  • 36062, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 21-8H, Haystack Butte,
  • 36063, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 22-5H1, Haystack Butte,
  • 36064, loc, CLR, Gordon Federal 23-8H, Haystack Butte, 

Best Day In A Long Time: Four Wells Coming Off Confidential List; Maybe NDIC Will Post Monday's Daily Activity Report This Morning; After Seemingly Good Stories Coming Out Of Canada Lately, Bad News -- RBN Energy -- WTI Slumps -- March 16, 2021

Three story lines this morning:

  • retail sales collapse in February
  • futures mixed
  • Wall Street can't keep up with economy


  • about those retail sales numbers for February
    • ZeroHedge has umpteen graphs; the only one that counts is the very last one posted at the very bottom of the page;
    • by the time the US equity markets open, the retail sales story will be forgotten
  • futures mixed: only because the Dow is only marginally down after record-setting closes; NASDAQ is up nicely
  • retail sales down in February? Wall Street can't keep up with economy? One might want to look at what's happening off the LA coast.

Price of oil: as noted many times on the blog, it's a fool's errand to predict oil prices. WTI slumps 2%; could drop below $64 today.

Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

Active Rigs1557655847

Four wells coming off confidential list -- Tuesday, March 16, 2021: 17 for the month, 73 for the quarter, 73 for the year.

  • 37035, F/A, Zavanna, Leopard 20-17 3H, Stony Creek, first production, 10/20; t--; cum 105K 1/21;
  • 36246, drl/NC, BR, Maverick 2E TFH, Dimmick Lake, first production, t--; cum--;
  • 36098, F/A, CLR, Gordon Federal 10-5H1, Haystack Butte, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 89K 1/21;
  • 36097, F/A, CLR, Gordon Federal 11-5H, Haystack Butte, first production, 11/20; t--; cum 84K 1/21;

RBN Energy: Alberta's natural gas market faces new price uncertainties this summer

Last summer, Alberta natural gas prices staged a remarkable turnaround from the dismal lows and extreme volatility experienced the prior three summers. The price rise is widely credited to a temporary gas flow mechanism put in place by the operator of Alberta’s gas pipeline grid to combat congestion and oversupply issues associated with construction and maintenance during the summer of 2020. However, this temporary mechanism was just that — temporary — and will not be reinstated this summer. Without it, there is concern among Western Canadian gas producers that the weakness and volatility in gas prices seen during past summers might return this year. With warmer weather on the horizon, today we consider these issues and the potential for renewed price weakness in the Alberta natural gas market this year.