Tuesday, March 16, 2021

Retail Sales Collapse In February, 2021; And Then There's This -- March 16, 2021

Link here. More stimulus needed. 


And then there's this.

  • Supercharged economy leaves global supply chain "stretched thin." Link here
  • some containerships sent north as port of Los Angeles hits capacity; link here;
  • new video shows massive scope of California box-ship traffic jam; link here;
  • four charts show the effects of West Coast port congestion and supply chain delays; link here;
  • Port Congestion: ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, March 8, 2021; link here;
    • detention and demurrage charges rise as regulators circle;
    • container lines ordered to explain detention, demurrage assessment;
    • LA-LB congestion to clear by late spring: terminal operators;
    • LA-LB truckers urge suspension of detention and demurrage
    • no let-up in e-commerce demand for expedited Asia services;
      elevated Asia import volumes won't let up;

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Miscellaneous

Top-ranked dividend champions, SeekingAlpha, March 15, 2021.

  • top three: JNJ, PG, ADP
  • 4 - 16: MDT, GD, PEP, CL, SYK, WMT, ECL, APD, ITW, KO, EMR, MMM, RTX

Warren Buffett: buybacks appear to be accelerating; round numbers? $2 billion / monthly?

FuelCell Energy:

  • collapsed 8% yesterday; falls another 12% in early morning trading today; earnings disappoint, but that's just the headline; the real news is even worse;
    • forecast: a loss of four cents; actual: a loss of six cents
    • previous quarter (3Q20): forecast a loss of seven cents; actual, a loss of eight cells;
    • a year ago: a loss of three cents;
  • look at this: revenues --
    • forecast: $18.8 million
    • actual: $14.9 million (missed by 26.5%)
    • one year ago: $16.3 million
  • wiki;

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.  

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Energy

US LNG exports: to Asia surged by 67% in 2020. Link to Tsvetana Paraskova

  • during the pandemic
  • will only "improve" in 2021;

Mexico's announcement of new oil discovery: political, non-story

Brent: North Sea oil and gas groups cut investment by £3 billion, $4.2 billion
something fishy going on with Brent?

Mexico (link above):

Despite the efforts of the government to stabilize Pemex operations by injecting roughly $17 billion in the last two years, the state oil company has been unsuccessful at increasing its crude production.

During 2020, the company managed to keep output close to 1.6 million b/d, but consistent underinvestment in exploration has led to a dramatic drop in the country's reserves from almost 45 billion boe in 2001 to less than 16 billion boe in 2020, according to CNH data.

According to S&P Global Platts Analytics, Pemex production is expected to average 1.66 million b/d through 2030.

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Southern Surge

I try to scan the LA Times headlines on a daily basis looking for articles on the Southern Surge. I have never seen any "southern surge" headlines over at the LA Times. Apparently, if it's a problem, only in Arizona and Texas. 

Tea leaves suggest this sets back the Dream Act. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

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"From The Before Times"

Link here.

The S&P 500 is surfing yet another all-time high, currently up over 70% from the worst depths of the coronavirus crash a year ago and around 17% up from the before times.

Covid isn’t over, and people aren’t all back to work, but BlackRock, the biggest money manager in the world, is bullish on stocks, even in the face of inflation concerns.

In a note Monday, the firm said that it was overweight U.S. equities and has a current view of an economy and market that’s beyond a “recovery.”

“We see the path out of the Covid-19 shock as a ‘restart’ – not a typical business cycle ‘recovery,’” a BlackRock note to clients said Monday. This is “a distinction that matters for markets.”

This outlook is leading BlackRock to push further into cyclical assets and “bolster our pro-risk stance over the next six to 12 months,” the firm said.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.  

2 comments:

  1. Retail Sales Collapse, IMHO down 3% seasonally adjusted. An exaggerated headline in my humble opinion considering the cold spell from border to border in central USA

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I agree 1,000%. The headline was from ZeroHedge. I did not watch television business news but my hunch the likes of CNBC said the same thing. If so, TAKEN OUT OF CONTEXT.

      The retail sales were just fine. That's why I just provided the link and then provided so much more positive data.

      Getting back to the ZeroHedge link: there were five or six charts posted; the most important one was the last chart posted.

      The headline I used from ZeroHedge was either trolling or sarcasm, depending on how one looks at it.

      Finally, consider the source. ZeroHedge -- I don't know if one sees this site as consistently bearish, but the site is certainly very, very negative.

      The market is pulling back today, but I see this more profit taking than real concern about retail sales.

      Oh, one last thing. One would assume retail sales will spike in March/April when stimulus checks are spent AND price of gasoline going up, which make up part of the retail sales numbers.

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