Thursday, May 15, 2025

Caption Of The Day -- May 15, 2025

Locator: 48627HUMOR.

A typical photo-op; nothing to see here. Link here.

But this caption: the caption identifies someone in the photo as a "sheikh" and the other guy as "US President Donald Trump."

Even someone who had been living under the Geico rock for the past 20 years could probably guess who is who.

So, I find it unlikely that the "R" in the caption means the person on the right. If the "R" does not mean the person on the right, then all I can assume it that the sheikh is also a Republican, like Donald Trump.

If I'm wrong, it speaks volumes about the "intelligence" of the CNBC caption-writer.

Colossus Supercomputer -- Memphis, TN -- Elon Musk -- May 15, 2025

Locator: 48626SUPER.

One wonders if folks have yet begun to connect these two big dots: crypto and supercomputers.

Tom Lee said May 15, 2025, that Bitcoin "will surpass gold" -- whatever that means -- and Bitcoin will go to $1.5 million. Bitcoin is currently running at $100,000 per unit. 

Trump's Mideast Tour -- Not Ready For Prime Time -- May 15, 2025

Locator: 48625SAUDI.

The Trump Mideast Tour was huge -- absolutely huge. This is the kind of trip one would see as the culmination of a president's final year in office, not in the first 100 days or so. Trump did this at the beginning of his second hundred days. Trump has about 4 x 3.5 one-hundred-day "periods" (4 x 3.5 = 14 one-hundred day "periods").

I digress: the successes this president has had are mind-boggling; if he were a "media-loved" president like JFK or Barack Obama his successes would be even more insane. 

Reagan had some political successes, perhaps. Made folks feel good. 

Obama: an incredibly divisive president; divisive without the legacy media calling him divisive. Trump is also very divisive but in a different way. [In passing, I might add, I'm not convinced Trump is more divisive than Obama was.

Bush I and Bush II are now seen in a different light: pathetic for the most part.

Bill-Hillary-Epstein. Nothing more needs to be said.

Biden was so bad he made Carter look good; Carter looks good mostly because Biden was so bad folks have forgotten how bad Carter was. 

But I digress. Back to winners and losers following Trump's tour of the Mideast.

Could this, by the way, be a blueprint for two Asian tours, more likely three: China mainland; China island; Japan; South Korea; Malaysis; India. Personally I don't see it happening any time soon, if ever, but one wonders.

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Posted Elsewhere, Eariler

Original Post

This is a page in progress; much needs to be added; much needs to be corrected. I assume sooner than later we will get a breakdown from The White House and a similar summary from The Wall Street Journal

But the Trump Mideast Tour was huge -- absolutely huge. This is the kind of trip one would see as the culmination of a president's final year in office. Trump did this at the beginning of his second hundred days. Trump has about 4 x 3.5 one-hundred-day episodes (4 x 3.5 = 14 one-hundred day episodes). He has barely started his second one-hundred-day period. More thoughts elsewhere.

The tour:

  • his tour could very be more than evolutionary ... shall we say "revolutionary"?
    • I was unaware of any restrictions being placed on Nvidia chips being sold to our allies in the Mideast
    • if so, that makes the trip revolutionary
    • lifting sanctions on Syria: ditto.

Let's look at the winners and losers:

  • winners: US chip makers; US tech companies; the US in general; the Mideast;
  • the losers: India, Asia, and China
  • the biggest loser: China
  • other winners: Boeing, US investors
  • other winner: Syria -- absolutely huge. 
  • other losers: Hamas, Hezbollah; 
  • other big loser: Russia
    • doesn't seem to be participating in the AI revolution at all
    • ground-down in WWI-like trench warfare with a small, relatively insignificant county
    • will lose a whole generation of young and middle-aged men
  • really big loser: Iran
    • the tech gap between Saudi/UAE/Qatar and Iran will increase exponentially
    • Iran remains a medieval country; actually becoming more and more akin to North Korea (and at this point, North Korea without nuclear weapons)
  • winner or loser, hard to say, but probably better than neutral: Israel
    • except: Israel won't be happy if Trump shows some/any accommodation toward Iran

I don't think a lot of folks see this at all. Certainly not the American media who are still arguing about pronouns; the name of the body of water off the state of Texas; and, the seating arrangement for the White House press corps.

Trump's Mideast Tour -- The Deals -- Saudi Arabia, Syria, Qatar, UAE -- Not Ready For Prime Time -- May, 2025

Locator: 48624SAUDI.

UAE Stargate data center:

  • first look, CNBC -- link here;
    • to be built by the Emirate firm G42
    • will partner with several US companies
    • US lead: Department of Commerce, Secretary, Howard Lutnick
    • the center will have a 5-gigawatt capacity and cover 10 square miles.
      • to put that in perspective, currently the typical full-scale data center:
        • 100,000 square feet
        • 20 - 100 MW
      • to put this in perspective, currently the world's largest super computer, Colossus I
        • Elon Musk, Memphis, TN
        • 750,000 square feet
        • 150 MW (phase 2 will bring power consumption up to 300 MW)
        • 5,000 MW / 300 MW = UAE data center to be 15x Colossus I / II
    • the names of the U.S. companies were not disclosed.
    • Nvidia ’s Jensen Huang, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son and Cisco President Jeetu Patel were all in the UAE for President Donald Trump’s visit
      • I believe AMD, as was Elon Musk (unless they broke off from the group after Saudi Arabia)
  • Players in Stargate: link here. What caught my eye -- no INTC but Cisco! "Buy" the way -- "Stargate" has all the markings of Elon Musk.
    • Nvidia: the blades
    • OpenAI: the OS
    • Cisco: the cables
    • Qatar: the energy

Saudi Arabia tech buildout: pending

Qatar:

  • Boeing deals with Qatar
  • Trump proposes "freedom zone" plan for Gaza
  • one might remember, Hamas leadership was HQ'd in Qatar but are now said to be gone

Syria:

  • sanctions lifted;

Israel: not visited this trip

******************************
Original Post

This is a page in progress; much needs to be added; much needs to be corrected. I assume sooner than later we will get a breakdown from The White House and a similar summary from The Wall Street Journal

But the Trump Mideast Tour was huge -- absolutely huge. This is the kind of trip one would see as the culmination of a president's final year in office. Trump did this at the beginning of his second hundred days. Trump has about 4 x 3.5 one-hundred-day episodes (4 x 3.5 = 14 one-hundred day episodes). He has barely started his second one-hundred-day period. More thoughts elsewhere.

The tour:

  • his tour could very be more than evolutionary ... shall we say "revolutionary"?
    • I was unaware of any restrictions being placed on Nvidia chips being sold to our allies in the Mideast
    • if so, that makes the trip revolutionary
    • lifting sanctions on Syria: ditto.

Let's look at the winners and losers:

  • winners: US chip makers; US tech companies; the US in general; the Mideast;
  • the losers: India, Asia, and China
  • the biggest loser: China
  • other winners: Boeing, US investors
  • other winner: Syria -- absolutely huge. 
  • other losers: Hamas, Hezbollah; 
  • really big loser: Iran
    • the tech gap between Saudi/UAE/Qatar and Iran will increase exponentially
    • Iran remains a medieval country; actually becoming more and more akin to North Korea (and at this point, North Korea without nuclear weapons)
  • winner or loser, hard to say, but probably better than neutral: Israel
    • except: Israel won't be happy if Trump shows some/any accommodation toward Iran

This page will cover the "tech" angle of this trip.

The Syrian "angle" is simply the US lifting sanctions on Syria. 

At same time as this trip, the last American Hamas hostage was released. Most Americans have already forgotten this. As far as we know, Trump brought home the last American Hamas hostage, pretty much within his first 100 days. One can see how this -- the hostage situation was all negotiated --

  • Trump, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar for the political deals;
  • Trump, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and UAE for the tech details.

Israel, Gaza: it's likely that Israel won't take any serious action against Hamas (Gaza) or Iran until Trump has left the region. 

Updates

May 15, 2025: UAE -- AI data center campus partnership with The White House (that's how the headline reads over at CNBC):

May 15, 2025: Qatar --

  • to build the largest AI data center in the world outside of the US; these will be the same companies that will work with Saudi Arabia

8:04 a.m. PT, May 14, 2025: I asked the same question for Oracle and Broadcom and got surprising answers. LOL. 

8:02 a.m. PT, May 14, 2025: how investors can use ChatGPT 

  • ChatGPT -- I simply used "option-space bar" to open.
  • my ChatGPT on my laptop while lying in bed, and asked the question (see below) and ChatGPT gave me this answer:

8:00 a.m. PT, May 14, 2025: I came across this after I posted my notes below.

Eight New Permits -- Thursday, May 15, 2025

Locator:48585B.

WTI: 31.

Eight new permits, #41917 - #41924, inclusive:

  • Operators: Hess (6); Murfin Drilling Company (2)
  • Fields: Ray (Williams); St. Anthony (Dunn)
  • Comments:
    • Murfin Drilling has permits for two MH Hecker wells, NENE 14-141-97; 
      • to be sited 345 FNL and 1050 / 1020 FEL;
    • Hess has permits for six GO-Lemire and two GO-Barb wells, SWSE 36-157-97; 
      • to be sited 400 FSL and 2484 / 2637 FWL.

One permit renewed:

  • 26209, Enerplus, Christine Joe 2-31-30H, Climax, Williams

Twelve permits canceled:

  • Hunt (6): Palermo (2), Mountrail; Smoky Butte (4); Williams County;
  • Enerplus (6): a Wallaby permit, McKenzie County; and a Fort Berthold, Dunn County; the Gnu, Addax, Camel, and Genet pad, Dunn County;

Deere Quarterly Results -- May 15, 2025

Locator:48584DE.

Deere press release: link here

Deere & Company reported net income of $1.804 billion for the second quarter ended April 27, 2025, or $6.64 per share, compared with net income of $2.370 billion, or $8.53 per share, for the quarter ended April 28, 2024 (an EPS decrease of 22% on a per share basis) .

For the first six months of the year, net income attributable to Deere & Company was $2.673 billion, or $9.82 per share, compared with $4.121 billion, or $14.74 per share, for the same period last year (representing a decline of 33% on a per share basis).

Worldwide net sales and revenues (sic) decreased 16 percent, to $12.763 billion, for the second quarter of 2025 and decreased 22 percent, to $21.272 billion, for six months. Net sales (sic) were $11.171 billion for the quarter and $17.980 billion for six months, compared with $13.610 billion and $24.097 billion last year, respectively, a decrease of 18% ad 25%, respectively.

Briefly, from above (note I often make simple arithmetic errors and the second paragraph was confusing for me: "worldwide net sales and revenues" vs "net sales."

  • for the first six months of the year:
    • net income:  decreased from $14.74 / share (2024) to $9.82 / share (2025) (a 33% decline)
  • for the second quarter of the year:
    • net income dropped from. $8.53 / share (2024) to $6.64 / share (2025) (a 22% decline)
  • worldwide net sales and revenues:
    • for the second quarter, decreased 16%
    • for the first six months of the year, decreased 22%
  • net sales:
    • net sales for the second quarter, decreased 18%;
    • net sales for the first six months, decreased 25%

Guidance:

  • net income for FY25: $5 billion
  • reminder: net income for 1H25: $2.673 billion

Ticker:

  • p/e runs about 23
  • div yield: about 1.3%

Earnings: link here -- 2nd quarter


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Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

 Briefly:

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
  • I've now added Oracle to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Oracle.
  • Longer version here.  

Thursday -- May 15, 2025

Locator:48583B.

Walmart: 1Q26 earnings, ending April 1, 2025)

  • link here;
  • says it will begin to raise prices as early as this month due to tariffs and trade war;
    • hugely positive for the stock price;
  • WMT:
    • p/e: 40
    • share price up 14% over last six months
    • div yield: about 1%
  • AAPL:
    • p/e: 33
    • share price down 6% over last six months
    • div yield: about half a percent

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $61.52.

New wells:

  • Friday, May 16, 2025: 40 for the month, 140 for the quarter, 332 for the year,
    • 41038, conf, XTO, HBU Lizette State Federal 21X-16F,
    • 39980, conf, Zavanna, Collie 13-25 2H,
  • Thursday, May 15, 2025: 38 for the month, 138 for the quarter, 330 for the year,
    • 41037, conf, XTO, HBU Lizette State Federal 21X-16B,
    • 40806, conf, Hess, EN-Horst-LW-154-93-1003H-2,
    • 40493, conf, Oasis, Lee N 5201 21-5 5B,

RBN Energy: renewable natural gas could help turn cellulosic biofuels into a success story.

Familiar corporate names like Cummins, Freightliner and Waste Management have joined forces with dozens of less-familiar public companies and startups to form what some might call a new U.S. industry. Thousands of commercial trucks powered by compressed natural gas (CNG) are on the roads nationwide, many of them filling up at dedicated fueling stations offering a compressed form of renewable natural gas (RNG), a cellulosic biofuel typically sourced from landfills and dairy farms. In today’s RBN blog, the third and final in our series on the D3 Renewable Identification Number (RIN), we show how this young industry could emerge as a commercial success for cellulosic biofuels, although political and regulatory risk remains.

The Eveready Energizer Bunny — 1:49 A.M. PT —May 15, 2025

Locator:48582ALUDEID.

Link here.

President Trump is getting ready to speak at Al Udeid Air Base. He’s arriving now: 1:56 a.m. PT or 4:56 a.m. in Mar-a-Lago.

Again, Qatar.

This will be his final event in Qatar. Next: UAE, the last leg of this tour for the Energizer bunny. 

Links when I can find a link that Google will accept. Never mind. Links everywhere.

Currently live on YouTube from The White House press office …  currently “We Will Begin Shortly.” Google Trump Al Udeid

Began airing at 5:38 a.m. Mar-a-Lago time. Probably tape-delayed; videography was perfect.

Question: was this “a Mideast visit” or a “Qatar visit” Mr Trump made  this past week with a stop in Saudi Arabia?

From The Washington Post:

President Trump says his trip to the Middle East has been “tremendous” so far, praising Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia and Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, his hosts on the first two legs of the visit.
And: 
“Iran is very lucky” that Qatar is lobbying for a deal for that country instead of military action against it, President Trump says. Continuing the bonhomie from Wednesday night, he also praises the U.S. relationship with Qatar. “We’ve never had a relationship with Qatar as strong as this,” he says. “We’re going to protect you.”

Sean Hannity traveling with Trump. Rush Limbaugh would have loved it. 

Amazing what the iPad can do.