Tuesday, September 9, 2025

Apple Presentation -- Rambling -- In Progress -- September 9, 2025

Locator: 49055AAPL. 

IN PROGRESS.

The four new iPhones and their entry level prices. A poorly written article. One would never know that Apple held prices steady just reading the head line and summary. This is quite a remarkable story.

  • for first time ever, all base models come with 256GB memory;
    • iPhone 17, base model; the sedan: $799, price unchanged from last year
    • iPhone 17 Air, base model; the sports car: $999; compare with the iPhone 16 Plus, $899;
    • iPhone 17 Pro, base model; SUV: $1,099, price unchanged from last year's iPhone 16Pro/256 GB;
    • iPhone 17 Pro Max, base model; SUV decked out: most premium device, no increase in price; $1,199;

The buzz

  • the sports car is going to outsell the sedan by a large margin, 
    • the thin, titanium iPhone will have a cachet that the rich and famous will have to have;
  • the sports car will cannibalize the entry-level SUVs
  • the $999 vs $799 could make a interesting margin?

Beyond its ultra-thin design, the iPhone 17 Air differs from the standard iPhone 17 with a more powerful A19 Pro chip, a single rear camera instead of two, and a lightweight titanium frame, whereas the standard iPhone 17 uses an A19 chip, has two rear cameras, and an aluminum unibody.
The Air also features a larger 6.5-inch ProMotion display, while the iPhone 17 has a slightly smaller 6.27-inch display with a similar 120Hz refresh rate

There are suggestions that once someone holds the iPhone Air, the sports car, there's no going back. Apparently the "Air" is simply unbelievable. 

Apple introduces four new iPhones. This will require a stand-alone post. 

Without getting into why I asked ChatGPT this question I will simply post this -- something I thought about before the Apple presentation today. 

The ChatGPT prompt: how many cellphones was Nokia selling at its height, compared with how may iPhones are now being sold? Then, second, how much money was Nokia making at its height compared to how much money Apple is making off its iPhones?

ChatGPT gave me a very, very long answer which I may post later, but suffice it to say this:

  • at its height, Nokia was selling twice as many phones as Apple is selling now;
  • at hits height, Nokia was making half as much money (accounting for inflation) than Apple is making now;
  • Apple is making twice the amount of money Nokia was making selling cell phones despite Apple selling half as many phones as Nokia was selling then;
  • it's all about margins
  • Apple stuck with high margin ("expensive") phones and has refused to give in; 
    • Apple has not taken on the low end of the cellular phone market (as many analysts have suggested they do).

After that question, I asked ChatGPT the defining moment when Nokia lost the cell phone battle to Apple.

I may post the answer later. It's an incredible thread.

But the question is important because some analysts are suggesting that the"ground is shaking under Apple's feet" and by not have their own in-house AI they may lose the cellphone battle to Androids or some other competitor (think Jony Ive developing his own AI-based device). Think of the collaboration between Jony Ive and OpenAI:

Jony Ive is not developing an AI-based "cellphone" but is instead partnering with OpenAI to create a new category of screen-free, AI-centric hardware devices
.
This new product is intended to be a "third core device" that complements—rather than replaces—your laptop and smartphone.

One needs to be concerned that the screen-free AI-centric device will, indeed, replace the phone. 

We can explore that later, perhaps.

Hess With Four New Permits -- September 9, 2025

Locator: 49054B.

RPOs -- Oracle / Larry Ellison benefited from RPOs noted during its earning report September 9, 2025. Link here. RPOs:

In technology, "RPO" most commonly refers to Recruitment Process Outsourcing, a business model where a company outsources some or all of its talent acquisition and recruiting functions to a specialized third-party provider, acting as an extension of the internal team. This allows the company to benefit from the provider's expertise, technology, and resources to find and hire top talent more efficiently.

Larry Ellison was able to see some time ago that there would be a shortage of chips ("blades") for several years, and that shortage would occur sooner than later. He bought an extraordinary amount of Nvidia chips for the sole purpose of renting them out. His gamble / hunch paid off.

That's one reason I'm not betting against Intel. I'm not investing in Intel but my hunch is that at some point the demand for Intel chips will be significantly greater than what Intel can provide.  

Apple introduces four new iPhones. This will require a stand-alone post.

 *****************************
Back to the Bakken

Sec of the Interior Doug Burgum was interviewed on CNBC today. He spoke to why the Trump administration is not supporting wind and solar energy. His answer was so "on point" that Brian Sullivan was unable to provide any push back. Doug Burgum is/was a Stanford graduate. He's probably going to be one of the best secretaries of the interior that the US has ever had, and certainly one of the best secretaries in Trump's cabinet.

WTI: $42.81.

Active rigs: 35.

Four new permits, #42289 - #42292, inclusive:

  • Operator: Hess
  • Field: Sorkness (Mountrail County)
  • Comments:
    • Hess has permits for four EN-Van Berkom wells, NESE 26-157-93, 
      • to be sited 1868 FSL and 470 / 569 FEL.

The Disclaimer -- September 9, 2025

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
  • Longer version here.   

Oracle (ORCL) Surging After Earnings Released -- 3:08 P.M. CT

Locator: 49053ORCL.

Tag: Oracle. 

Clearly a bigger story than the Apple presentation today. LOL.

Where were you:

  • November 22, 1963?
  • July 20, 1969?
  • September 11, 2001?
  • September 9, 2025?

Supply chain shortages, energy shortage, and capital (cash) shortage: all being discussed by D. A Gil Luria, D. A. Davidson's Managing Director, right now on CNBC -- 4:19 p.m. CT -- interestingly enough, if you follow Apple closely enough, Apple seems to be addressing these challenges as well as or better than anyone. Remember, Tim Cook's expertise was in logistics. Apple's biggest concern? TSMC. ChatGPT confirms.

"Wild bullishness" -- not a short squeeze. Or, saying it another way, this. is not a short squeeze, this is simply wild bullishness. Oracle is now up almost $70 / share and almost up 30% after hours (4:07 p.m. CT). Its market cap is now trending toward $900 billion, which is closer to $1 trillion than it is to $0 trillion. 

This is the big story: the tech CEOs are likely seeing the same demand that Oracle is seeing / reporting. For as long as I've been watching CNBC it's always been about "backlog" when it comes to Boeing. All of a sudden we're talking about "backlog" in AI.

Jamie Dimon: the economy may be getting weaker. 

CNBC: so much for that meme that AI is overdone.

The CNBC guests are using words like "historic"; phrases "like do you remember where you were when Oracle popped?" One needs to listen to the interview with Ben Reitzes, Melius Rearch, Technology Research Head, talking on this whole story, and mentioning Stargate when has been a huge story on the blog. 

Wow: 3:55 p.m., less than an hour after earnings were reported:  Oracle is up almost $60 on a $250-stock. Everybody thought the big story today would have been AAPL. Turns out that the big story today was Oracle and "everybody" missed it. Broadcom was recently added to "the magnificent seven" making that group "the great eight." We're getting close to the "tremendous ten." 

Wasn't there a story about Larry Ellison, Oracle, buying Nvidia chips to rent?

Yes, that story is accurate. Oracle, led by Larry Ellison, has invested billions of dollars into buying a massive number of NVIDIA GPUs to offer as cloud computing power to other companies, including OpenAI.

Here are the key details of the deal:
A huge investment: In May 2025, reports indicated that Oracle intended to purchase around 400,000 of NVIDIA's GB200 AI chips, with a total value of approximately $40 billion.

Powering OpenAI's AI models: The computing power from these chips is being leased to OpenAI to reduce its dependence on its backer, Microsoft, and meet the growing demand for training its large AI models.

The "Stargate" project: The hardware is being used to build a new U.S. data center in Abilene, Texas, as part of the "Stargate" project, which is designed to bolster America's AI infrastructure.

The infamous dinner: In September 2024, Larry Ellison revealed that he and Elon Musk had "begged" NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang for more GPUs during a dinner. At the time, they faced a supply shortage, which illustrated the intense demand for NVIDIA's AI chips.

See this blog.

Later: Oracle surges 20% even after missing on both the top line and the bottom line. Holy mackerel.

This was earlier.

Despite a miss on both the top and the bottom line.

Up $30.

Up over 11%

Missed on both upper and lower item but underlying numbers are incredible. 

The big story: hyperscalers like Amazon and Microsoft not able to satisfy / meet demand from their own customers and they (MSFT, AMZN) need to rent back blades from Oracle to meet their own needs / meet the demand of their existing AI customers. Wow.

Jobs Report Today -- Has Trump Been Right All Along? Folks Are Starting To Wonder -- September 9, 2025

Locator: 49053ECONOMY.

This was the biggest revision ever in the history of the BLS -- revised by almost a million jobs lost! 

Wow, how can an agency be off by that much!?!? Worst in its history. Coincidentally occurred in Trump's first year. Coincidental? Some people tell me that nothing is coincidental. JPow is looking at his legacy right now. Fed presidents resigning and/or being fired, and recession back on the Fed's agenda with which to deal. My hunch: JPow is going to look a lot older in his retirement photo six months from now.

The new meme: JPow was watching the data before making a decision to cut rates. Unfortunately the data was wrong. Or at least appears to have been wrong.

Garbage in, garbage out.

Jobs report today, link here.

Cognitive dissonance for The New York Times:

  • Trump was right. JPow has been too slow in cutting rates.
  • Trump economy stumbling. 

Would the economy be stumbling if the Fed had already cut rates? 


Breaking: Microsoft Will Buy AI Services From Anthropic -- September 9, 2025

Locator: 49052AI.

It's impossible to keep up with all the tech stories breaking today.

Microsoft and Anthropic: is "the ground shaking underneath the feet of Tim Cook?"

  • is the reverse of what happened with Microsoft and Apple when Microsoft missed the iPhone revolution? And Nokia? And Intel?
  • is Apple at risk of missing the AI revolution.
  • to be honest, I don't think I'm missing by not have "an Apple-specific" AI app on my phone or iPad or MacBook Air.

Oracle: Red Bull Racing and Carlyle investment group. Earnings to be reported after hours today. ORCL already up nicely about a an hour before the close. See Oracle after the close here, after earnings reported.

This is very old news but it's been all over CNBC today:


That's a year! Not a one-time event. Holy mackerel.

Nvidia:


AMD:




The Apple Event -- Live -- 12:00 Noon CT -- September 9, 2025

 

Locator: 49051APPLE.

Tag: AAPL, wow. 

At the close:

After conclusion of the presentation: AAPL fell about $3.50 / share; in line with what AAPL usually does after these presentations.

*****************************
The Presentation

Done on the fly. Everything needs to be fact-checked. Done only to make sure I kept focused on the presentation.

Critics / analysts say this won't be a supercycle. After listening to the presentation, one wonders.

Ticker, link here:

Holy mackerel: because I'm so overweight in AAPL this made a huge change in my overall portfolio value. AAPL is now slightly negative for the day; will be very, very volatile today.

The presentation.

Begins with the Air Pods. Introduced by VP, Hardware Engineering.

AirPod 3 -- $249: no price increase.

  • holy mackerel: live translation
    • Duolingo shares plummet
    • Broadcom down a bit
    • Qualcomm down a very, very little bit
    • TSM up almost 3%
    • ATT up 2%
    • after initially being positive, Apple drops near the end of the presentation
  • live translation begins with simple hand motion
  • works when only one person using the Air Pods, but really, really works well when both folks are using Air Pods
  • does anyone else do this?
  • doesn't matter.
  • five sizes now available
  • last much longer on one charge -- 8+ hours
  • I may finally buy a pair. LOL.
  • $249: no price increase
  • ticker - AAPL: 
    • down $2.00 on the day before the Apple presentation
    • at the end of the Air Pod 3 presentation, AAPL went from -$2.00 to four cents in the green.
    • seriously

Apple Watch, $299 to $799.

  • Apple Watch series 11:
    • marketing: health issues
    • lifeline in emergencies
    • can identify possible chronic hypertension -- this is groundbreaking!
      • looking for FDA clearance soon
  • Apple Watch SE 3: perfect entrance model; 
  • Apple Watch Ultra 3: being introduced this year: satellite connectivity;
    • ultimate sports and event watch -- it does it all 
    • largest display ever in any Apple Watch, but overall size has not increased
    • 42 hours of battery life; bigger battery

iPhone 17, $799 -- no price increase!

  • gonna be hard to keep up
  • introducing four new models
  • five colors
  • larger, 6.3" with smaller borders
  • Ceramic Shield 2 -- another big deal
  • A19 -- 3nm technology
    • 16-core neural engine
    • 6-core CPU
    • 5-core GPU
  • the upgrade in speed is almost incomprehensible for those with older phones
  • come in the following models
  • lots of emphasis on ProMotion
  • the camera -- really too much to post live
    • 48-dual fusion (two cameras in one)
    • main camera
    • 48-megapixel
    • 24-megapixel everyday use
    • 48-megapixel wide focus
    • 1-megapixel macro
    • front camera -- selfies are a very big deal
    • Center Stage: Apple's wildest field of view
    • wow-wow-wow: don't have to rotate the iPhone any more for landscape photos
    • four views now available; can hold iPhone vertically for all photos -- wow-wow-wow!

iPhone Air, newest member of the iPhone family, game changer, $999:

  • iPhone Air
    • focusing on thinness, Ceramic Shield on both sides, and color
    • impossibly thin profile, but no added weight
    • this is going to be huge
    • 5.6 mm thin
    • 6.5 inch display
    • frame: titanium
    • exceeds Apple's bend strength requirement
    • four colors
    • Apple Silicon
    • A19 Pro
      • 6-core CPU (includes 2 performance cores; 2 efficiency cores)
      • 5-core GPU
      • introducing neural accelerators
      • wireless connectivity for the first time: N1
      • Apple-designed: N1
      • Apple-designed modem: C1X; 2x faster than C1; less energy intensive
    • camera enhancements
    • battery length: all-day battery life in thinnest iPhone ever;
    • up to 40 hours of video playback with battery accessory.

iPhone 17 Pro and iPhone 17 Pro Max; see presentation.

  • biggest battery in any iPhone
  • new Camera Pro system
  • completely new thermal dispersion system;
  • will become the standard for Hollywood filming

iPhone SE, $599. Have to check on this one. Not discussed on the presentation. 

Other tickers midway through presentation:

  • Of interest
    • Duolingo shares plummet
    • Broadcom down a bit
    • Qualcomm down a very, very little bit
    • TSM up almost 3%
    • ATT up 2%
    • Corning, GLW; up nicely
    • after initially being positive, Apple drops near the end of the presentation

SCCO -- Following The News On A Huge International Merger In Copper -- September 9, 2025

Locator: 49050COPPER.

The merger: Anglo American, Teck, The Wall Street Journal.

Ticker


 

Taco Tuesday -- September 9, 2025

Locator: 49049B. 

Energy stocks: all up about 2% today on news of Israel military strikes in Doha, Qatar; and, ready to move into Gaza City. Link here. Of course, this will have "a Hamas spin." Israel cutting off the head of the snake.

*******************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $63.16. Up almost a buck a barrel. Up 1.45%. Oil will do well today based on headlines coming out of Mideast. By the way, from a military analysis, this looks very, very interesting, and, again, Israel, .... well, let me leave it at that. [Comment: Hamas calls "it" a cowardly attack. Wow. Let's go back to October 7, 2023. Some of the hostages taken at that time are still being held by Hamas.]

New wells:

  • Wednesday, September 10, 2025: 14 for the month, 107 for the quarter, 547 for the year, 
    • 41521, conf, MRO, Semerad 11-18H, 
  • Tuesday, September 9 2025: 13 for the month, 106 for the quarter, 546 for the year,
    • 40576, conf, KODA Resources, Amber 1336-5BH,

RBN Energy: US refiners must adapt to complex, shifting forces to thrive in today's market. Archived.

The refining industry is complex and unpredictable. Recent plant closures in the U.S. and abroad, as well as mounting pressure to produce more renewable diesel (RD) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), have shifted the landscape. In addition, an eight-year battle over CITGO’s three U.S. refineries has taken a new direction. Despite these shifts, the refining industry has remained resilient. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll discuss how refineries balance these changes and make choices to shape their future, the focus of our upcoming Refined Fuels Master Class. Warning: Today’s blog is a blatant advertorial. 

As we discussed in Us and Them, the U.S. refining industry has undergone a number of changes in recent years, and more turbulence is likely as global economic and trade patterns shift and many governments push decarbonization efforts. For some U.S. refineries, this has led to closures due to weak profits, rising regulatory costs and declining demand for products, particularly gasoline. But other refineries have prospered and even invested in expansions. The domestic refining industry has evolved into the most competitive in the world, and the issues and challenges faced by other countries will likely benefit U.S. refiners.

In today’s blog, we’ll discuss refining basics, the latest news with the CITGO refineries, the push to increase RD and SAF production, and the importance of using the crack spread and yield models to analyze refining margins. Those are among the topics to be covered in greater detail during our upcoming Refined Fuels Master Class, an online-only event hosted on Thursday, October 2, from RBN’s Refined Fuels Analytics (RFA) practice.

ONEOK Launches Open Season For Proposed Refined Products Pipeline To Phoenix -- September 8, 2025

Locator: 49048ONEOK.

Link here. Archived.

Strong demand for refined products (especially jet fuel) in Arizona and refinery closures in Southern California have spurred the development of a new refined products pipeline from West Texas to the Phoenix area. ONEOK, whose acquisition of Magellan Midstream Partners made it a player in refined products, has announced an open season for the proposed Sun Belt Connector pipeline, which would expand PADD 2 and PADD 3 refiners’ access to premium markets out West. In today’s RBN blog, we discuss ONEOK’s plan and how it could impact refined products markets. 

ONEOK’s $18.8 billion purchase of Magellan Midstream Partners in September 2023 was transformational. For years, ONEOK had focused solely on the gas-and-NGLs side of things, with gas gathering systems, processing plants, storage, long-haul gas and NGL pipelines, and fractionators. Acquiring Magellan gave the company an equally impressive set of crude oil and refined products assets, including (on the crude oil side) the Longhorn Pipeline from the Permian to the Houston area; 30% stakes in the BridgeTex Pipeline (also from the Permian to Houston; ONEOK recently increased its stake to 60%) and Saddlehorn Pipeline (from the Denver-Julesburg Basin to the Cushing, OK, crude oil hub); and full or partial ownership interests in several major terminals, some of which handle refined products as well as crude.

The Most Watched Business Story Today: Apple iPhone 17 Launch -- Noon Central Time -- September 9, 2025

Locator: 49047AAPL. 

Tag: Apple, iPhone.

We'll come back to this later. 

The Second Most Intriguing Story Today -- Natural Gas Turbines -- September 9, 2025

Locator: 49046TURBINES.

We'll come back to this later. But wanted to post this as a memo / reminder for me.

CWD -- A Most Intriguing Story -- September 9, 2025

Locator: 49045CWD.

Ticker: CWD.

Pre-market: looks like it will jump from $2 to $50 today. Numbers rounded. No typo.

But needs to be fact-checked.

Was 25 cents / share earlier this year; then 1 - 20 reverse stock split resulting in stock become a "$2-stock."

Now, makes a digital purpose and stock could surge.

What's going on. Link here.

I have no dog in this fight. Just found it intriguing. 

Of course that comes on the heels of Nebius-Microsoft which is even more intriguing. NBIS could pop 50% at the open today.

Again, I have no dog in this fight, with regard to NBIS, but not many months ago, I started a position in MSFT only to diversity my otherwise somewhat speculative AI portfolio.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Brief Reminder 

Briefly:

  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.
  • I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 
  • Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.
  • If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 
  • Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.
  • I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 
  • And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.
  • I've now added Broadcom to the disclaimer. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.
  • Longer version here.