Thursday, April 28, 2022

Damn The Torpedoes -- Full Speed Ahead -- CLR With Eight New Permits -- April 28, 2022

Oil surges late in day:

  • Brent: up 2%; up $2.10; trading at $107.40
  • WTI: up 3.3%; up $3.34; trading above $105
  • my hunch: strong talk by Pelosi / Schumer today to stymie oil production in this country will result in yet higher prices; a surge like this does not suggest a significant or long-lasting recession.

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$105.40
4/28/202204/28/202104/28/202004/28/201904/28/2018
Active Rigs3616306462

Eight new permits, #38907 - #38914, inclusive:

  • Operator: CLR
  • Fields: Pleasant Valley (Williams); Beaver Lodge (Williams),
  • Comments:
    • CLR has permits for eight McClintock wells; 
      • two will be sited in NENE 24-156-95; 
      • the other six in SESW 13-156-95; 
      • the two in the NENE quadrant will be sited 260 FNL and between 647 FEL and 602 FEL; 
      • the six in the SESW quadrant will be sited 335 FSL and between 1338 FWL and 1563 FWL.

Two permits renewed:

  • BR: a Catalina permit in Dunn County, and a Croff permit in McKenzie County

Oil -- WTI / Brent -- Surprise On The Upside -- April 28, 2022

Why?

  • Headline: Germany no longer opposed to Russian oil embargo.

Oil:

  • Brent: up 1.86%; up 1.96; trading at $107.30
  • WTI: up 2.75; up $2.75; trading at $104.80

Big MRO Well Off Line: Activity In The Area -- April 28, 2022

The well:

  • 36737, AL/A, MRO, Kloster 24-12H, Bailey, first production, 12/19; t--; cum 362K 7/21; cum 399K 12/21;

Also, this well taken off line:

  • 34048, 2,849, MRO, State Kelling 14-36TFH, Bailey, t4/19; cum 130K 12/21; off line;

MRO Is Starting To Report Its Christoph Pad -- MRO C-P-S-W Pad

The Bailey oil field is tracked here.

The wells:

  • 38086, drl, MRO, Seidler USA 31-4H, Bailey, first production, 2/22;

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2022181929119699213452148620807134
  • 38087, drl, MRO, Weidner USA 41-4TFH, Bailey, first production, 2/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-20222636327363304036334266332610
  • 37996, drl, MRO, Christoph USA 41-4H, Bailey, first production, 2/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2022263745437620421423398532793168
  • 37997, drl, MRO, Phillip USA 41-4TFH, Bailey, first production, 2/22;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN2-2022262805528025403652492924032139

Well of interest:

  • 16459, 457, MRO, Oscar Stohler 41-4H, Bailey, t10/08; cum 619K 10/21; off line. Note jump in production back in 2017, nine years after this well was first drilled:

BAKKEN1-2018311503614651637525247185776501
BAKKEN12-2017311662416674673728731267721795
BAKKEN11-2017302043520512791431578269984421
BAKKEN10-20173129014287311159736537517831175
BAKKEN9-20173032893331641365441385655534659
BAKKEN8-20173118678184571494523587335620047
BAKKEN7-20172929243292222040036800332233317
BAKKEN6-201716165411640464252081786919855
BAKKEN5-2017100130000
BAKKEN4-20170000000
BAKKEN3-2017102746961352180176
BAKKEN2-2017289439182537720605
BAKKEN1-201731108113932908750695
BAKKEN12-20163011839232957610464
BAKKEN11-2016269459012486080356
BAKKEN10-201631122013503087850468
BAKKEN9-2016301134874304766194271
BAKKEN8-2016183532329732015527
BAKKEN7-20163110621141275715126289



Recession? AAPL Will Report Earnings Today -- April 28, 2022

AAPL reports after the market closes this afternoon. 

US economic growth, 1Q22, unexpectedly declines in first quarter by 1.4%. If I'm reading that correctly, that's a negative 1.4% annualized decline. One analyst, about a week ago, said we were already in a recession. I never posted that, waiting for confirmatory data. So, Jay Powell, already put us into a recession? Rate hike still on? Link here.

The negative growth rate missed even the subdued Dow Jones estimate of a 1% gain for the quarter. GDP measures the output of goods and services in the U.S. for the three-month period.

Weekly jobless claims: 184,000 just above expectations in tight labor market.  

WTI: oil doesn't care about GDP. Oil up slightly in early morning training.

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The Sports Page

Joe DiMaggio: 56-game hitting streak, May 15, 1941 - July 16, 1941, a record that still stands. Eighty-one years ago.

The Realities Of Moving From Fossil Fuel -- The New York Experience -- April 26, 2022

Re-posting. 

Note: the chart below really speaks volumes about politics, special interest groups, the economics of nuclear energy and the economics of renewable energy, the incredible challenge of -- or should we say "impossibility" of weaning "ourselves" off fossil fuel energy when fossil fuel is still so inexpensive compared to the alternatives, and, of course, we can't forget NIMBY when we talk about renewable energy.

From Powerline.

This graph might be a bit hard to understand, but ...

In just two years, the share of electricity provided by nuclear energy dropped about 12%.

To compensate for that loss of nuclear energy, faux environmentalists committed to increasing fossil fuels' share by almost exactly the same amount, 12%.

Wind dropped.

Hydro really dropped. 

And, "other renewables, increased ever so slightly. 

Now all we need is the average price of electricity over the last two years. And the amount of fuel oil being provided by Russia.  

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The Movie Page

After seeing Charlotte Rampling in Swimming Pool years ago, I've always been a bit fascinated by Ms Rampling, but never enough to do much "searching."

After recently seeing her in the 1975 movie, Farewell, My Darling, I was finally curious enough to at least do a cursory search, which of course, takes one to wiki

At least now I understand a bit better why I may have missed her: I did not see her on film for many years. In the middle 1980s and the 1990s, for a decade, she "withdrew from the public eye due to depression."

She was born in 1946, just after the war; her father was a British Army officer. She had an older sister, Sarah, born three years earlier, in the middle of WWII, 1943, who died by suicide at the age of 23 (1966; Charlotte would have been 20).

They were incredibly close sisters, singing and working together in their coming of age years. 

Married Jean-Michel Jarre, 1978; publicly dissolved, 1997; divorce final in 2002; one son, her second son; and a stepdaughter, Émilie Jarre, who became a fashion designer.

Many awards over the years; very well respected by her peers and the movie industry. 

I think Camille Paglia would approve. 

Enerplus Reports Another Huge Well; WTI Holding At $102 -- April 28, 2022

Price of gasoline: White House has same message -- "we're continuing to monitor the situation;" "all options are on the table"; and, "we have many options." 

  • first thing I did this morning was look at Nixon's wage and price freeze
    • wiki entry here and here;
    • executive order 11615, October 22, 1971;
    • led to stagflation of the 1970s;

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Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$102.40
4/28/202204/28/202104/28/202004/28/201904/28/2018
Active Rigs2316306462

Thursday, April 28, 2022: 55 for the month, 55 for the quarter, 214 for one year

  • 38138, conf, CLR, Dennis FIU 10-8H, Cedar Coulee, no production data;
  • 37725, conf, Enerplus, Marten 151-94-33C-28H, Antelope-Sanish, another nice well;

RBN Energy: assessing next steps after Russia cuts gas to Poland and Bulgaria.

It’s been more than two months since Russia invaded Ukraine, sending global energy markets into chaos as most of Europe tries to figure out a way to quickly reduce its reliance on Russian supplies. The initial response from the U.S. and its allies was a slate of economic sanctions, but those largely left natural gas out of the equation, as parts of Europe are so dependent on Russian gas that stopping the flows would pose serious threats to the continent’s economies and energy security. Now, with no sign of an end to military hostilities and continual increases in the scope of sanctions, Russia is responding by starting to shut off flows to European countries that refuse to pay for their gas in rubles. Where is this headed? In today’s RBN blog, we look at the latest escalation, what led to this point and where the market might go from here.

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Initial Production

The well:

  • 37725, conf, Enerplus, Marten 151-94-33C-28H, Antelope-Sanish, another nice well;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20222308142277
1-20223629059362
12-20214661967770
11-20215897280182

ISO NE At 6th Decile, $125 / MW -- Early Thursday Morniing -- April 28, 2022

Not sure why ISO NE is at a relatively high price this morning.

Demand is moderate at 12,412 MW.

The "marginal fuel" was wind when I looked at it about ten minutes ago; wind is very inexpensive.

I saw that the share of hydro was increasing and I assume / assumed that's why prices were moving up.

And now, ten minutes later, the marginal fuel is "hydro, wind."

Hydro is very expensive and now moving up. Ten minutes ago, share of hydro and renewables were equal at 14%. Now ten minutes later hydro is at 16% and renewables are at 14%.

The question is why? Why is not natural gas the marginal fuel?

ISO NY is similar, running about $100 / MW this morning.