Tuesday, February 23, 2016

No New Permits; Triangle Will Report A Nice Well Wednesday -- February 23, 2016

Wells coming off the confidential list Wednesday:
  • 24277, 420, Triangle, Triangle 150-101-36-25-8H, Rawson, t9/15; cum 59K 12/15;
  • 30325, SI/NC, BR, Sun Notch 41-32TFH, Sand Creek, no production data,
  • 31578, SI/NC, EOG, Van Hook 22-3606H, Parshall, no production data,
  • 31651, SI/NC, SM Energy, Jeremy Federal 14B-10HN, West Ambrose, no production data,

 24277, see above, Triangle, Triangle 150-101-36-25-8H, Rawson:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold


Active rigs:

Active Rigs39126187181204

No new permits. This is the second day in a row with no new permits.

Marathon and Hess each canceled two permits: [correction by the NDIC -- these permits were not canceled; in fact, they were producing wells that were completed and very good wells; see this post for IPs and production.
  • MRO: a Trinity permit and a Ringer permit, both in Dunn County
  • Hess: a Sorenson permit and an L Cvancara permit, both in Mountrail County
Petro-Hunt and Triangle each temporarily abandoned a recent well:
  • Petro-Hunt, #28464, a USA well in McKenzie County
  • Triangle, #29148, a J Garvin Jacobson well in McKenzie County
Abraxas temporarily abandoned a Red River/Stonewall well:
  • 8343, the Red River drilled in 1981 cum 611K 11/13; and, the Stonewall formaiton drilled in 1996, cum 98K 11/13;

US LNG Exports -- RBN Energy -- February 23, 2016

Active rigs:

Active Rigs39126187181204

RNB Energy: Natural Gas Flowing to Sabine Pass LNG Export Plant.
The first U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export cargo from the Lower 48 is now likely within just a week or two of shipping from the Cheniere Sabine Pass, LA terminal. In the meantime, physical flow data is already giving us a first glance at how the terminal will be supplied from U.S. natural gas production. In today’s blog, we begin a look at flows to the terminal, how the gas is getting there and where it’s coming from.
In recent months, there has been a flurry of completion and commissioning activity around Sabine Pass. Filings with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) indicate the terminal has been furiously readying its first two liquefaction trains over the past few months in preparation for loading its first export cargo. As we detailed previously in our blog series Begin the Sabine, Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass LNG (SPL) export terminal in Cameron Parish, LA along the Texas-Louisiana border, is one of four such brownfield projects targeting gas exports from the US, and the first to begin operations.
The terminal will ultimately include six liquefaction “trains,” each with the capacity to supercool up to 650 MMcf/d of natural gas into LNG (at -260 oF) for a total capacity to produce 3.8 Bcf/d for loading and shipment overseas. The facility also has 17 Bcf of LNG storage capacity on site. Construction of the first train was completed and commissioning activity began last fall. And just last Friday (February 19, 2016), SPL filed a request for authorization to introduce fuel gas to train 2 “at the earliest date possible, but no later than March 4, 2016” in order to begin commissioning activities for the second train. Additionally, pipeline flow data from our friends at Genscape indicates that more than 3 Bcf of gas has physically flowed to the terminal in just the past two weeks, suggesting the liquefaction process is underway. Reuters is reporting that two LNG tankers in the Gulf of Mexico are at the ready to take the cargo, one having docked at the terminal just this past Sunday (February 21).
The terminal’s activity and the imminent first cargo of physical gas exports from the lower 48 U.S. are historic events in their own right, with long-term implications for both the global and U.S. natural gas supply/demand balances. But on a more granular level within the U.S., the exports also will have more localized impacts on regional flows and pricing based on where the supply is sourced and how that gas will get there. Cheniere has lined up commitments for the vast majority of each train’s liquefaction capacity through Sales and Purchase Agreements, or SPAs, with various counterparties. To fulfill these commitments, Cheniere secured upstream supply and transportation capacity to serve the trains. In a January 2016 company presentation, Cheniere restated that it has entered into 1-7 year term gas supply contracts with producers for an aggregate of approximately 2 Tcf for an average price of Henry Hub minus $0.10/MMBtu. The supply contracts cover ~50% of the required daily load for Trains 1-4. To ensure transportation capacity to bring supply to the terminal, Cheniere also has commitments on existing and planned expansion pipeline capacity.
Thus, flows around the terminal will continue to evolve based on expected pipeline expansions and related supply contracts kicking in over the next year. Additionally, some of these flows could be seasonal. By looking at initial flows to the terminal, as seen in the daily pipeline flow data, we can provide an early glimpse of this picture. We’ll start today with a quick review of the available pipeline capacity serving the terminal and deliveries to date. Next time we’ll take a detailed look at where the supply is coming from.
The other day there was an article about the Chinese looking to build three methanol refineries along the Columbia River in Washington state and Oregon. LOL. When will these folks ever learn. When it comes to fossil fuel, one cannot do business in Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa, Maine, New Hampshire, or Vermont, or as I call them, "The Gang Of Eight." New York State has applied for membership.  FuelFix is reporting:
The Pacific Northwest could become a major hub for methanol production if three proposed refineries are built along the Columbia River and Puget Sound.
A China-backed consortium, Northwest Innovation Works, has proposed two plants in Washington and a third in Oregon to convert natural gas to methanol, which would be shipped to China to make plastics and other consumer goods.
But those plans are running into opposition. On Friday, the company temporarily put its project in Tacoma on hold, saying it has been “surprised by the tone and substance of vocal opposition.”
I wasn't going to link that article; some things are beyond the pale, as they say. But when I saw the LNG export story from RBN Energy, it reminded me of the FuelFix article. The Chinese simply have to build these plants in Texas, Louisiana, or Mississippi. The Panama Canal has been widened. What are we talking? Three extra days shipping time from the Gulf Coast to China? Or the Chinese can fight Washington and Oregon for a decade and still probably have nothing to show for it.

How naive can these folks be? The company temporarily put its project in Tacoma on hold, saying it has been “surprised by the tone and substance of vocal opposition.” Surprised? Naive, I would say.

Update, just a couple of hours later, 5:23 p.m. Central Time: bizjournals is reporting that one of the proposed Columbia River refinery projects is "already dead in the water" --
The Port of Longview has rejected a proposal for an oil refinery and propane export terminal.
Waterside Energy, the proponent, wanted to build the first-ever oil refinery on the Columbia River, and would have been the first constructed on the West Coast in 25 years.
The port's commissioners voted unanimously to deny the $1.25 billion proposal.
Project opponents point to Houston-based Waterside Energy's record as proof the refinery project was wrongheaded. In 2014, the investors behind Waterside Energy abandoned a biodiesel facility in Odessa, Wash., firing its employees and leaving $1.6 million in bills unpaid, according to information from Columbia Riverkeeper.

I've lost the bubble why we still need GITMO. It is a political issue in which closing GITMO will simply be another pin in the George W. Bush voodoo doll. Folks want GITMO to be closed only to point out that Bush was wrong. Whatever.

Once I start reading about the money being spent keeping GITMO open tells me no one is serious about this issue. It's simply political theater, and a theme that can be used in political speeches to raise money. No matter how much GITMO costs or doesn't cost, it's but a footnote in a national budget that has a $20 trillion debt.

I would suggest that the Bush family get out in front of this -- now that Jeb is out of the race -- and fight to have GITMO closed. The grand compromise would be this: close GITMO, move the prisoners to federal prisons, and put pork back on the menu.

I don't think this is all that difficult. Based on early reports, it does not sound like the president is averse to putting them into non-military federal prisons. I would prefer not to have them in military prisons, but that's a minor debating point.

The best thing that would come out of this would be the detainees would be separated from each other.

By the way, President Obama was to lay out his "Get Out of GITMO" speech this morning. At least we know what he was doing this past weekend during the Scalia funeral: working on a speech. I still haven't seen the golfing photographs from this past weekend.

North Dakota's Triple-A Rating Downgraded A Notch By S&P -- February 23, 2016

From Investor Village:
North Dakota lost its Standard & Poor's triple-A rating because of the impact of oil price volatility on the state's economy.

S&P lowered the state's issuer credit rating one notch to AA-plus late Thursday. The rating agency also lowered the state's appropriation debt rating one level to AA from AA-plus, and the state's moral obligation-backed debt rating by two notches to A-plus from AA. The outlook on all the ratings is stable at the lower level.

"The downgrade reflects our view of increased volatility in the state's economy that has translated into a projected $1.074 billion, or 22%, general fund revenue shortfall for the 2015-2017 biennium," said Standard & Poor's analyst Carol Spain.

"We were dismayed that S&P downgraded North Dakota's AAA rating, especially because the state has planned for possible downturns by building up our reserve funds and protecting the structural balance of our budget by focusing on one-time infrastructure investments verses ongoing operations," said Office of Management and Budget director Pam Sharp. "We believe the financial condition of the state is still very solid."

This month North Dakota dipped into its $572 million budget reserve to the tune of $497 million to help cover a $1 billion shortfall in revenue for the 2015-2017 biennium triggered by falling crude oil prices. The budget forecast assumes West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices of $30 per barrel as of January 2016 that gradually transition to $43 per barrel by June 30, 2017.  [Comment: I think this is way too optimistic.]
The state had already implemented across-the-board budget cuts of 4.05% to make up for the shortfall in a $6 billion general fund budget for the current two-year cycle that began in July 2015. Another $75 million remains in the reserve fund, which is earmarked to provide further relief if the economy hasn't turned around by the state's next revenue forecast, which is scheduled for the summer.
S&P had previously cited North Dakota's strong reserves as a credit strength mitigating its vulnerability to oil sector decline. However the February drawdown on reserves increases the state's susceptibility to a downturn in the oil industry.

WIlliston High School Coyotes To Play Last Game In Williston's Phil Jackson Field House -- February 23, 2016

I wear my emotions on my sleeves, as they say, and I actually felt a twinge of sadness reading this article from The Williston Herald:
With the new Williston High School opening in the fall, and with it, a new Williston High School gymnasium, time is running out on the Phil Jackson Field House as a home for Coyote sporting events.
And, in fact, tonight’s home basketball doubleheader with Dickinson will mark the last time the venerable facility plays host to WHS varsity athletics.
To commemorate the event, there will be a special ceremony between the end of the girls game, which starts at 5:45 and the start of the boys game at around 7:15.
The gym at the new high school is still under construction, and when it opens it won’t be named after Jackson, a star at WHS in the 60s, who went on to play at the University of North Dakota and then with the New York Knicks. Jackson is probably best known for his NBA coaching career, winning 10 championships with the Chicago Bulls and the Los Angeles Lakers.
The old WHS fieldhouse was practically my second home while in high school. I probably spent as many hours in that part of the facility as I did in the high school itself: football manager, wrestler, Lettermen's Club, the sole student in charge of the athletic laundry room two of the years I was in high school; pep band in the fieldhouse; awards ceremonies.

One of my favorite memories of high school was walking home at night, after wrestling practice or working in the laundry, well after dark, in the middle of winter, when it was 20 degrees below zero (or colder); no wind; quiet; I could hear the snow crunching under my feet; about a 20-minute walk home; if the sky was clear I would look at the stars and wonder; sometimes I would see the "northern lights"; alone in my thoughts; incredibly peaceful; I do not recall every worrying about homework on those nights; I don't recall worrying or thinking much about anything. Perhaps it was too cold.

I assume the fieldhouse is not going away. It will still be part of the huge facility which will now be the middle school and, I think, an elementary school will be co-located there. I could be wrong. But the old facility will still be around. Williston probably has more square footage of fieldhouses-recreation centers-fitness centers-swimming pools/resident than any other city in the world. During this slowdown in activity in the Bakken, perhaps someone can put together a package to document this and sent it to the folks at Guinness World Records for validation. Off the top of my head: 
  • the new $70 million Williston Area Recreation Center
  • the old WHS fieldhouse (from the story above)
  • the new WHS fieldhouse
  • the Raymond Family Community Center (hockey, among other activities, including handball, I believe)
  • the fitness center on north Main (I think it's still there)
  • the EJ Hagan Aquatic Center 
  • outdoor swimming pool (I think it's still there)
  • multiple elementary school gymnasiums
  • the break room in the back of Manger Insurance, Inc

Notes From All Over -- February 23, 2016; North Sea CAPEX Plunges

CAPEX in the North Sea is plummeting. Bloomberg is reporting:
Oil and natural gas producers in the U.K. North Sea will spend 40 percent less this year than in 2014 as low crude prices force them to tighten budgets, the industry’s lobby group said Tuesday.
The drop in spending could threaten future production, potentially halving it by 2025 from current levels if “fresh investment opportunities” fail to materialize.
That would put a brake on the recent increase in production from the U.K. North Sea.
Liquids and gas output rose 9.7 percent to 1.64 million barrels of oil equivalent a day last year, the first increase from the region since 2000. That was due partly to efficiency gains from existing assets as well as new projects coming on stream, the lobbying group said. Output is set to reach 1.74 million barrels of oil equivalent by 2018, provided investments keep pace.
Oil & Gas U.K. forecast a drop in capital expenditure to 9 billion pounds ($12.7 billion) this year from 11.6 billion pounds last year and 14.8 billion pounds in 2014, a decline that would affect the whole supply chain. Operators will approve less than 1 billion pounds of new projects, down from an average of 8 billion pounds a year in the past five years. 
The graph at Oil & Gas UK is staggering:

No matter how many times I look up "Brent" I always seem to forget something / learn something. From wiki:
Brent Crude is a major trading classification of sweet light crude oil that serves as a major benchmark price for purchases of oil worldwide. This grade is described as light because of its relatively low density, and sweet because of its low sulfur content. Brent Crude is extracted from the North Sea and comprises Brent Blend, Forties Blend, Oseberg and Ekofisk crudes (also known as the BFOE Quotation). The Brent Crude oil marker is also known as Brent Blend, London Brent and Brent petroleum. 
How did Brent come by its name? Two stories:
Originally Brent Crude was produced from the Brent oilfield. The name "Brent" comes from the naming policy of Shell UK Exploration and Production, operating on behalf of ExxonMobil and Royal Dutch Shell, which originally named all of its fields after birds (in this case the brent goose)
But it is also an acronym for the formation layers of the oil field: Broom, Rannoch, Etive, Ness and Tarbert. (google Brent acronym)
From SeekingAlpha:
  • Oil and gas producers in the U.K. North Sea will spend 40% less this year than in 2014 as low crude prices force them to tighten budgets, which has the potential to chop future production in half by 2025 if new investment opportunities fail to materialize
  • Oil & Gas U.K. forecasts a drop in capex to £9B ($12.7B) this year from £11.6B last year and £14.8B in 2014, a decline that would affect the whole supply chain, and operators are expected to approve less than £1B of new projects, down from an average of £8B/year in the past five years
  • Even with extensive cost cuts, Oil & Gas U.K. says 43% of all U.K. North Sea oil fields would operate at a loss if crude prices stay at ~$30/bbl this year, and more than 100 fields would cease production during 2015-20.
Filloon On Whiting: Hedges

At SeekingAlpha. I have not read it yet. The link is likely to break or require a password in the future. Archived.

There are some very good points in the article, and especially in the comments, regarding fracking, mega-fracks, and most importantly, the "halo" effect. There is still a lot to be learned about the "halo" effect. So far, it's my impression that royalty owners are not seeing any "negatives" associated with neighboring fracks. But that doesn't mean there aren't any. 

Fitzsimmons On Whiting: Will ExxonMobil Buy Whiting?

At SeekingAlpha. I have not read it yet. The link is likely to break or require a password in the future. Archived.

Massachusetts Love Affair With EVs At Any Price Waning

EVobsession is reporting:
Massachusetts will be slashing the rebate available for electric vehicles with a base MSRP over (or equal to) $60,000 — down to $1,000 per vehicle, from the previous rebate amount of $1,500 or $2,500. Electric vehicles retailing for less than $60,000 are still eligible for a higher rebate.
The new rates will be effective beginning February 29, 2016 — meaning that anyone looking to receive the higher rebate amount needs to submit their application before the 29th.
From $1,500 to $1,000 for someone able to afford a $60,000+ EV is not exactly slashing.

The most important data point in that article: a reminder that this is leap year. It is very possible that North Dakota will produce more oil in February, 2016, than it did in the month of February, 2015, simply because of that one extra day. LOL.

Introduction To Hedging In The Bakken -- Mike Filloon -- February 23, 2016

Link here (archived):
There is one type of hedge that may be problematic for operators in 2016. The three-way collar is a collar where there is selling of a further out-of-the-money put option. This is also known as a subfloor. Operators engage in three-way collars because it has a lower cost. In some cases, these generate revenue. The issue is added risk. By selling a further out-of-the-money put, it is possible an operator will see limited downside protection. By adding the short put or subfloor, it decreases the benefit of the long put or floor. The tighter the differential from the floor and subfloor, the less beneficial the hedge with low oil prices.

Tuesday, February 23, 2016 -- Gasoline Demand To Set New Records? It Could Be Close; It May Depend On How Many Teslas Are Delivered

From EIA:
“Based on estimates in the most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook, vehicle travel in the United States in 2015 was almost 4% above its 2007 level, but motor gasoline consumption has not exceeded its previous peak in 2007.
Improvements in light-duty vehicle fuel economy are largely responsible for this outcome. STEO forecasts motor gasoline consumption to average 9.23 million barrels per day (b/d) in both 2016 and 2017, about 0.6% below its 2007 level. In contrast, vehicle travel is expected to grow to levels 5% and 7% above the 2007 level in 2016 and 2017, respectively.”---EIA
Starting in November, 2005, and through August, 2007, the amount of gasoline delivered in the US exceeded the comparable month, one year earlier. For the first eight months of 2007 US gasoline demand hit all-time records that have not been beat since (same month comparisons). But it's been close.

But look at this, September, 2015, did hit a record for the month of September (see spreadsheet below). And gasoline demand in October, 2015, was the second-highest October for gasoline demand, beating the number even in October, 2007. The "top October" was back in 2006. In fact, 2015 had some incredibly huge months for gasoline demand, not all that different from 2007.

Comparing 2007 (the record year) with data so far reported for 2015, it appears that the delta has been about 4 million bbls/month (the range is as low as a million bbls or so to ten million bbls or so). Four million bbls/month = 150,000 bopd.

I find the numbers staggering. I find the data most interesting.

Again, the EIA STEO forecasts motor gasoline consumption to average 9.23 million barrels per day (b/d) in both 2016 and 2017, about 0.6% below its 2007 level. In contrast, vehicle travel is expected to grow to levels 5% and 7% above the 2007 level in 2016 and 2017, respectively. (Doing the math, it looks like the average daily consumption in 2007 was 9.2857 million bopd.)

In 2015, two things to note: a) gasoline was incredibly inexpensive, but it was getting less expensive as the year went on; and, b) the US economy had slowed significantly.

Gasoline demand started off very slowly in 2016 but has now picked up. The EIA estimates the average consumption to be 0.6% below its 2007 level. If the economy picks up, and gasoline remains this inexpensive, I wouldn't be surprised to see gasoline consumption to go up.

But considering all the mileage improvements and CAFE standards and all the hybrids and all the EVs and all the Teslas on the road, it's amazing that gasoline consumption continues to increase after all these years.

Note: I may have mis-read the spreadsheet, but I spent a few minutes looking for errors I may have made. Regardless, in notes like this, typographical and factual errors are likely. If this information is important to you, go to the source.

Double-Talk In Houston -- February 23, 2016: A Freeze, But No Cut In Production


February 25, 2016 It's now agreed -- the Saudi Surge was a direct assault on the US shale oil industry -- Bloomberg. Saudi says it was concerned about "all high cost" projects (US shale, Canadian oil sands, deep-sea off Brazil). Deep-sea off Brazil was already in trouble, and Canadian oil sands were facing headwinds of their own: landlocked; even higher-priced than US shale; Keystone XL killed).

Oil & Gas Journal reports on the speech and comments given by Saudi's energy minister.

No cut, just a freeze. Maybe:
When asked about the recently announced deal reached by Saudi Arabia with three other producing countries to freeze production at January rates, Al-Naimi said it is the beginning of the process to rebalance supply and demand. “Cutting production is not going to happen,” he said. There will be another meeting next month, he said, to get more producing countries to agree to the freeze.
On markets:
What is different about this most recent and long-running downturn, Al-Naimi said, is that oil prices had reached a high-enough level that “every barrel on earth was being produced regardless of economics.” The solution, he said, is to get back to the marginal cost of development.  
No, every barrel on earth was being produced because Saudi let the price of oil spike to $140 making it economically feasible to go after "expensive oil" and in the process learn how to make the process economical even at $30. 

And exactly what is the marginal cost of development in Saudi Arabia? About $6.

On the right price of oil (sort of like determining the "right" global temperature):
When oil was fetching $100/bbl, Al-Naimi said, the price “seemed reasonable.” At that price, he said, investment was unleashed into normally uneconomic areas such as the Arctic, the Canadian oil sands, and the deepwater. This lead to the robust growth of supplies from both conventional and unconventional sources, he said.
What about market share?
Saudi Arabia’s oil policy remains multifaceted, Al-Naimi said. First and foremost, he said, the kingdom remains committed to meeting the demand of its customers. It also wants to maintain its level of spare capacity and will jump in during any type of crisis to meet the world’s demand. “We are not seeking market share,” he reinforced.
Really? That's not what Saudi Arabia has consistently said for the 16 months. Not only that, he said "market share" was the issue (see below).

War on shale? Of course not:
The oil market, Al-Naimi said, is much bigger than just the production coming from the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The fact is, he said, that oil demand was, and remains, strong. The world’s daily demand of 90 million bbl should come from many sources of supply, including from shale plays. Al-Naimi adamantly denied that the kingdom has “declared war” on shale oil in the US and that it is simply trying to maintain its already-large market share.
Now we're back to Saudi Arabia "simply trying to maintain its 'already-large market share.'"

On solar energy: 
As for renewables, he sees solar as the answer for the future. He envisions the kingdom in the future being able to export the btu-equivalent of 7 million bo/d worth of solar.
Really? Saudi recently canceled a huge solar energy initiative because it was short of cash. But when they do start exporting 7 million bopd worth of solar, that's going to be one huge and very, very long transmission line.

Something For The Saudis To Talk About In Houston Today -- February 23, 2016

The will give the Saudis something to talk about today in Houston:
  • 28717, 3,638, Whiting, P Johnson 153-98-1-6-7-16HA, Truax, 1280-acre spacing, 35 stages, 6.8 million lbs, t8/15; cum 172K 12/15
Talking points:
  • IP: 3,638
  • Cumulative: in less than four months -- 172,000 bbls of oil plus some natural gas
  • Drilling time: about 16 days, start to finish, May 6 - 22, 2015; during the Saudi Surge
  • Completion: only 35 stages; if oil gets back to $60/bbl, they can do a lot more stages
  • Pool: middle Bakken and Lynn Helms says the Three Forks is even better in some areas
  • a two-well pad: the second well is going to be just as good (that data is posted below the #28717 data)
  • this area is almost devoid of much drilling; there is so much more drilling to be done in this area
  • continuing to drill when Bakken oil is selling for $16/bbl; how low does Saudi need to go to stop drilling in the Bakken?
NDIC File No: 28717     API No: 33-105-03589-00-00     CTB No: 128717
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 8/23/2015     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: LOT1 6-153-98         Latitude: 48.109935     Longitude: -103.327125
Current Well Name: P JOHNSON 153-98-1-6-7-16HA
Elevation(s): 2219 KB   2194 GR   2202 GL     Total Depth: 20656     Field: TRUAX
Spud Date(s):  5/6/2015
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 11541-20534     Comp: 8/23/2015     Status: F     Date: 8/31/2015     Spacing: 2SEC
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 171996     Cum MCF Gas: 297776     Cum Water: 123826
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 8/31/2015     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 3638     IP MCF: 8274     IP Water: 3523
Monthly Production Data
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

On The Same Two-Well Pad

NDIC File No: 28715     API No: 33-105-03587-00-00     CTB No: 128715
Location: LOT1 6-153-98     Footages: 429 FNL 801 FEL     Latitude: 48.109934     Longitude: -103.327370
Current Well Name: P JOHNSON 153-98-1-6-7-16H
    Field: TRUAX
Monthly Sales Data:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

This well was drilled during the same period, by the same rig, Pioneer Drilling #77, it appears: spud on May 7, 2015, and completed May 27, 2015; from the geologist's narrative summary. The conclusion said that the drillers "reached TD at 2300 hours on May 27, 2015, 10 days from spud." Maybe ten drilling days. Gas units as high 9,270 units. Fracking report yet to be reported. According to FracFocus it was fracked 8/9-21/2015 with 7,491,838 gallons of water, 89.58% of total proppant by weight, and sand, 10.08% of total proppant by weight


The area under discussion, note how little drilling has actually been done here:


By the way, #20857, a Three Forks well, was taken off-line during the time the wells above were fracked. One can debate whether there was a halo effect. If so, minimal:
  • 20857, 358 (13 stages/500K lbs proppant/January 23, 2012)(a second sundry form shows a second frack, March 19, 2012, with an IP of 1,312, 23 stages and 1.2 million lbs sand), Whiting, Pankowski 4-6H, Three Forks, 23 stages, 1.2 million lbs, t2/12; cum 178K 12/15:
Monthly Production Data

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare