Locator: 49044NFL.
Vikings: 27.
Bears: 24.
Monday, September 8, 2025
NextDecade Completes Commercialization of Rio Grande LNG Train 5 -- September 8, 2025
Locator: 49043LNG.
Tag: Ben Franklin, US revolutionary war.
NextDecade completes the commercialization of Rio Grande LNG Train 5 with 1.0 MTPA LNG sale and purchase agreement with ConocoPhillips.
Train 5 commercialization is now complete, positive final investment decision expected in fourth quarter 2025.
NextDecade Corporation announced today that it has executed a 20-year liquefied natural gas (LNG) sale and purchase agreement (SPA) with ConocoPhillips for offtake from Rio Grande LNG Train 5.
ConocoPhillips will purchase 1.0 MTPA of LNG for 20 years on a free on board basis at a price indexed to Henry Hub, subject to NextDecade making a positive final investment decision (FID) on Train 5.
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The Book Page
Wow, wow, wow!
Link to The Wall Street Journal.
This is a very, very long article and dovetails wiht many biographies of Ben Franklin of which I have read. This is truly spectacular.
Daily Activity Report -- September 8, 2025
Locator: 49042B.
Today's factoid:
Texas's nominal GDP was approximately $2.7 trillion in 2024, making it the eighth-largest economy in the world. This figure places Texas ahead of countries like Russia and Canada and represents more than 9% of the total U.S. GDP. GDP of:
- California: $4.1 trillion
- Italy: $2.373 trillion
- Canada: $2.241 trillion
- Russia: $2.174 trillion
- Mexico: $1.853 trillion
- Spain: $1.723 trillion
- Egypt: $389 billion
NASDAQ: closed at a record high today.
Dow: 0.6% from a new record high. Needs to be fact-checked.
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Back to the Bakken
WTI:
Active rigs: 33.
Four new permits, #42281 - #42284, inclusive:
- Operator: Formentera Operations
- Field: Noonan, Divide County
- Comments:
- Formetera Operations has permits for four Fonda wells, NENW 23-162-95 and NWNE 23-162-95;
- to be sited 372 FNL and 2565 / 2611 FWL
Two permits renewed:
- MRO: Shell USA (#38472) and Elva USA (#38474), McGregroy Buttes, Dunn County.
AI -- It's All Hype -- September 8, 2025
Locator: 49041AI.
Updates
Later, 8:12 p.m. CT: so, if you are among those who say it's all hype, are you 100% in cash tonight?
Later, 8:11 p.m. CT: link here.
Original Post
While 20-something journalists and old-school analysts are telling us that AI is all hype and will crash any day now, the folks that have skin in the game, will see this stock jump 60% overnight:
Yeah, it's AI.
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Cloud AI vs Edge AI
I just spent a bit of time working with ChatGPT to learn more about "cloud AI" vs "edge AI" -- it will make Tim Cook's presentation much more interesting tomorrow. If one is interested, simply ask ChatGPT the difference between "cloud AI" and "edge AI"; the advantages / disadvantages of each; and, hos "edge AI" plays into Apple's business model.
ChatGPT offered to describe / translate in "real time" what Tim Cook says during the presentation. I honestly don't think folks realize that AI is going to do for them in the big picture. The kids in elementary school today are going to have a completely different curriculum than the ones their parents and grandparents had. Their teachers are going to be "pressed to the limit" to keep with the new generation. Ironically, this may be the "beta-generation." LOL. Following the current "alpha generation."
The Beta generation: still in testing. LOL.
- Gen alpha: 2013 - 2025
- Gen Beta: 2025 - late 2030s
- Gen Gamma: 2040 - 2050s
Let's say the most important ages, the coming of year ages, are ages 15 to 35, then in 2020, those 15-year-olds in 2020 were born in 2005 and those 35-year-olds in 2020 were born in 1985. With that in mind, I would argue that the "Covid generation" were born between 1985 and 2005.
Sophia was born in 2013. Olivia was born in 2007 and Arianna was born in 2004.
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Stocks Doing Badly
Fast casual restaurants. Real badly.
Check out "Sweetgreen" over the past year.
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Refrigerated Dog Food
On the streaming networks that I watch, the early morning hours and the late afternoon/early evening hours are dominated by refrigerated dog food. There are a lot of things that bother me in life. One of the most nauseating visuals for me: refrigerated dog food. We might talk about that later. And it has nothing to do with pet food or refrigerators or even storing pet food in refrigerators alongside human food.
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Monday Night Football Tonight
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings.
But now it's Cramer for a few minutes before taking Sophia to Jiu-Jitsu. She won a gold medal over the weekend at the martial arts tournament in Dallas -- whoo-hoo! I can't wait to hear what her coach has to say!
How "big" is the NFL? It's hard to believe but The New York Times will be tracking the pre-game and the game in "real time."
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The Book Page
Of all the books I've read over the years, one of my favorite books is A History of Pi, Petr Beckmann, c. 1971.
About That Powerball Lottery -- Taxes -- A Good Time To Be A Citizen Of Texas -- September 8, 2025
Locator: 49040TAXES.
There's a CNBC article out there discussing the taxes on the Powerball lottery winnings. Unless the writer has information the rest of us don't have, the article may or may not be accurate.
What if the winner is a non-US citizen who just happened to be visiting the US at the time as a tourist?
Some countries whose citizens are exempt from US tax on gambling winnings include (most of Europe):- Austria
- Belgium
- Czech Republic
- Finland
- France
- Germany
- Ireland
- Japan
- Latvia
- Lithuania
- Luxembourg
- Netherlands
- Slovak Republic
- Slovenia
- South Africa
- Spain
- Sweden
- Tunisia
- Turkey
- Ukraine
- United Kingdom
New Tag Added: Jargon_Tech -- September 8, 2025
Locator: 49039JARGON.
Updates
September 9, 2025: RPOs -- Oracle / Larry Ellison benefited from RPOs noted during its earning report September 9, 2025. Link here. RPOs:
In technology, "RPO" most commonly refers to Recruitment Process Outsourcing, a business model where a company outsources some or all of its talent acquisition and recruiting functions to a specialized third-party provider, acting as an extension of the internal team. This allows the company to benefit from the provider's expertise, technology, and resources to find and hire top talent more efficiently.
Original Post
Broadcom is getting a lot of attention now, and the stock is having a parabolic move, as they say.
It's all due to XPUs.
"The Secret Sauce," Michael Fitzsimmons, September 8, 2025. If unable to access due to paywall, the next link is just as good, at Morningstar:
- "Buckle up, torrid AI growth is accelerating," September 5, 2025. Link here. Morningstar raises its fair value estimate for Broadcom stock.
- fair value estimate: $325
- three-star rating
- moat: wide
- uncertainty rating: high
The "Jargon_Tech" tag will help .
Early Morning Trading -- September 8, 2025
Locator: 49038INVESTING.
Early morning trading: after indications early on of a great day ...
- Dow: down 85 points
- NASDAQ: up 160 points
- S&P 500: up 12 points
Going into the S&P 500:
- APP (Apploving Corp)
- Robinhood (HOOD)
SiriusX: has Howard Stern walked away? Andy Cohen stepped in?
- Howard Stern himself: it was a gag; Howard Stern says it was all a hoax
- if memory serves me well, Buffett has big holding in SIRI
- yes, BRK holds a significant stake in SIRI;
- as of August 2025, BRK increased its stake to almost 40% of SIRI's total outstanding shares
- I guess in the middle of Nebraska, there aren't many local / regional radio stations
- Charlie Munger must have been a big listener
- ticker: abysmal (SIRI); one year down 10%; five year down 60%
Tech:
- Oracle: pre-market, leading the Dow; up 3.51%; up $8.17; trading at $241;
- AAPL: flirting with $240; dropped slightly at the open;
- MU: last Friday, a low of $126.49 near midday; closed at $131.37; up 3.8% from its low that day; dropped 1% at the open;
- APP (Apploving Corp) up $55; up 11%; two year: up 1,194%
- Palo Alto
- helps developers market, monetize mobile apps
- SATS (Echostar Corp) up $15; up 22% today; since 2020 has been trading at mid-20s; today; trading at $83
- satellite communication
- will sell certain spectrum licenses to SpaceX for $17 billion in cash and stock
- SpaceX: not publicly traded
- Starbase, TX
- founded in 2002, Elon Musk;
- 2025: America's dominant space launch provider
- launch schedule eclipsing all others, including national programs like the Chinese space program
- Falcon 9: more than 450 launches; reaching 1 - 3 launches / week; first flew in 2018
- Falcon Heavy: built from three Falcon 9 boosters; a decade to develop
- SpaceX, NASA, and US Armed Force work closely together by means of government contracts
Oil:
- CVX: up a bit; up 0.5% at the open;
- VNOM: up 1% at the open;
- COP: up very, very slightly;
- ENB: up 0.7%; trading at $48.60; pays 5.67%;
- EPD: up slightly; trading at $31.75; pays 6.87%;
Oil tycoons bet big on Trump. It's paying off. TWSJ. Excerpts.
Oil billionaire Harold Hamm high-fived Donald Trump on election night as results trickled in at the Mar-a-Lago watch party.
Hamm, founder of family-owned oil-and-gas company Continental Resources, had good reason to celebrate. He and other oilmen had donated tens of millions of dollars to help re-elect Trump, betting that his pro-fossil-fuel agenda would stave off a long-term shift away from fossil fuels and keep the country hooked on gasoline.
That wager is paying off.
The Trump administration is opening swaths of wilderness land and federal waters to drilling, approving new terminals to export natural gas and proposing to ax environmental regulations, including an Obama-era rule used to curb emissions from power plants, tailpipes and oil-and-gas production. His One Big Beautiful Bill is expected to hobble renewable-energy projects and stunt the adoption of electric vehicles.
Trump’s tax-and-spending legislation will end subsidies of up to $7,500 for purchasing or leasing an EV. It also brings a windfall to oil-and-gas and other companies in the form of expanded tax breaks.In April, after Wright became energy secretary, he attended a gathering in Oklahoma City arranged by Hamm to discuss the need for more energy to support the rise of artificial intelligence. So too did Burgum, EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin and Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins. Attendees joked at how many officials from the administration showed up separately.
ConocoPhillips, EOG Resources, Occidental Petroleum and Devon Energy recently told investors that because of new tax provisions in Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill, they collectively expect to save more than $1.2 billion in tax payments in 2025—and likely billions more in the coming years. British giant BP, which operates in the U.S., said the tax savings would likely offset any pressure from tariffs.
Although large producers such as Exxon and Occidental Petroleum have acknowledged that climate change is a major global problem, administration officials have said global warming isn’t a serious threat.
In July, the Environmental Protection Agency said it aims to rescind a 2009 climate rule that states that greenhouse gases threaten public health and welfare by raising global temperatures. The agency has used the finding to regulate releases from power plants, motor vehicles, aircraft, landfills and oil-and-gas activities.Early last year, Hamm brought Wright, then still head of oil-field-services company Liberty Energy, to an energy roundtable at Mar-a-Lago. Then candidate Trump went around the room asking questions. Hamm later recalled at an energy conference that Trump was so impressed by Wright’s answers that he asked Wright to “head out to DOE,” referring to the Energy Department. Trump later attended a fundraiser at Wright’s house in Montana, telling aides it was among the nicest he had ever seen.
Burgum, Wright and Zeldin have been zipping around the country to visit fossil-fuel-producing regions, talking up energy projects in Alaska, Louisiana and Pennsylvania.
At least a dozen former oil executives and lobbyists have joined the administration and are helping to oversee the nation’s public lands and mineral resources. The National Energy Dominance Council, a body Trump set up to produce more American energy, is partly staffed and advised by former employees of oil-and-gas companies.
Manic Monday -- September 8, 2025
Locator: 49037B. 
Oil tycoons bet big on Trump. It's paying off. TWSJ.
Oil billionaire Harold Hamm high-fived Donald Trump on election night as results trickled in at the Mar-a-Lago watch party.
Hamm, founder of family-owned oil-and-gas company Continental Resources, had good reason to celebrate. He and other oilmen had donated tens of millions of dollars to help re-elect Trump, betting that his pro-fossil-fuel agenda would stave off a long-term shift away from fossil fuels and keep the country hooked on gasoline.
That wager is paying off.
The Trump administration is opening swaths of wilderness land and federal waters to drilling, approving new terminals to export natural gas and proposing to ax environmental regulations, including an Obama-era rule used to curb emissions from power plants, tailpipes and oil-and-gas production. His One Big Beautiful Bill is expected to hobble renewable-energy projects and stunt the adoption of electric vehicles.
US oil production: hits all-time record. Link here.
- June, 2025: 13,580K
- previous high, October, 2024: 13,530K
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Back to the Bakken
WTI: $63.00.
New wells:
- Tuesday, September 9 2025: 13 for the month, 106 for the quarter, 546 for the year,
- 40576, conf, KODA Resources, Amber 1336-5BH,
- Monday, September 8, 2025: 12 for the month, 105 for the quarter, 545 for the year,
- None.
- Sunday, September 7, 2025: 12 for the month, 105 for the quarter, 545 for the year,
- 40813, conf, Enerplus, Fort Berthold 148-94-19D-18-9H,
- Saturday, September 6, 2025: 11 for the month, 104 for the quarter, 544 for the year,
- 41076, conf, Hess, GO-Foss Fam TRST-156-97-2314H-5,
- 40812, conf, Enerplus, Fort Berthold 148-94-19D-18-8H,
- 40577, conf, KODA Resources, Amber 1336-6BH,
RBN Energy: US, Canadian energy market connections more critical than ever amid rapid changes.
North America is an integrated energy market so deeply connected that it functions as one massive, interdependent system for the three “drillbit hydrocarbons”: crude oil, natural gas and NGLs. But the rapid changes happening in the market now — driven not only by supply/demand dynamics and evolving infrastructure but also regulatory policies and political pressures — mean it’s more important than ever to talk about how the ongoing relationship between the U.S. and Canada will evolve and strengthen in the coming years. That was the focus of our School of Energy Canada and the subject of today’s RBN blog. Warning: Today’s blog includes some blatant plugs for a newly available replay of our recent conference in Calgary.
Our theme for this year’s School of Energy was “Two Countries, One Market,” and we started Day 1 with a detailed look at crude oil fundamentals. The U.S. and Canada have each seen crude production increase sharply over the past 15 years. U.S. production (left side of Figure 1 below) has grown from less than 6 MMb/d in 2011 to more than 13 MMb/d this year, while Canadian production (right side) has risen from about 3 MMb/d to about 5.5 MMb/d today.
Figure 1. U.S. and Canadian Crude Oil Supply and Cross-Border Flows. Source: RBN
Despite the continuous rise in U.S. production, crude oil flows from the U.S. to Canada (top graph in middle section of Figure 1) haven’t changed all that much in the last few years. Most of the crude the U.S. sends to Canada comes via waterborne tanker from the U.S. Gulf Coast up to terminals in Montreal or New Brunswick. On the other hand, most of the growth in Canadian production has been in heavy-sour crude, which is well-suited for complex refineries in the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast, and those cross-border flows are up significantly from 2011 — doubling over the past 14 years (bottom middle graph).
It's a similar story for the natural gas and NGL markets, with surging production and largely stable cross-border flows making each country heavily dependent on the other. For the U.S. and Canada, the oil, gas and NGL markets are completely and inextricably intertwined, and rely on each other to help balance regional supply and demand, and what happens in one market will directly affect the other. The U.S. and Canada form a global powerhouse in energy markets that will continue to fuel prosperity in both nations.
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