Sunday, November 25, 2018

Newfield's Yellowfin Wells In Siverston Oil Field


November 26, 2018: the Yellowfin wells are now tracked here. I won't be updating this page ever, every again.

Later, 9:36 p.m. CT: right on cue. While I was typing the update below, and making comments about break-even for Saudi Arabia, look what EIA tweeted:

Later, 9:09 p.m. CT: a reader sent a long note explaining what Newfield is doing with the Yellowfin wells. It's a long note with a lot of interesting information -- I would like to post it tonight, but I am simply too tired to do the note justice, so I will post it tomorrow. But a huge "thank you" to the reader for sending me the back story to these wells. It is simply amazing what is going on in the Bakken. All I can say is this: if this is what they are doing in the Bakken, one can only imagine what they are doing in the Permian.

This makes me think back to the WSJ article that was linked yesterday. With US crude oil inventories back to almost 450 million bbls, it's not going to be quick or easy to get back to 400 million bbls. If Russia doesn't cut back on production, Saudi Arabia is going to have quite a challenge.

I can't find it now, but just the other day I posted how low WTI could go and Bakken operators would still make money -- not much, but enough to stay in business. Saudi Arabia, on the other hand needs $100-oil even though they say they can manage with $80-oil. Right now, they have to be concerned with getting back to $80-oil. Trump's "bait-and-switch" ended up putting a lot of crude oil in the pipeline. China's oil inventories rose over 400% in one month.

Original Post

The graphic:

The Newfield Yellowfin wells are in the upper left-hand corner:
  • 34800, conf, Newfield, Yellowfin 150-98-6-7-7H:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 34801, conf, Newfield, Yellowfin 150-98-6-7-8H:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 34802, conf, Newfield, Yellowfin 150-98-6-7-9HLW:
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

The other wells in the graphic.

Two parent wells:
  • 18641, AB/1,856, Newfield, Newfield, Megamouth 1-8H, t8/10; cum 1/17;
  • 18741, 407, Newfield, Dahl 1-5H, Siverston, t7/10; cum 155K 9/18; for Dahl wells, see this post;
Three daughter wells:
  • 25862, 1,312, Newfield, Holm 150-98-5-8-2H, Siverston, t3/14; cum 192K 9/18: no jump in production;
  • 25863, 637, Newfield, Holm 150-98-5-8-10H, Siverston, t3/14; cum 120K 9/18; huge jump in production in 9/18;
  • 25864, 1,425, Newfield, Holm 150-98-5-8-3H, Siverston, t3/14; cum 224K 9/18; huge jump in production in 9/18;
The granddaughter wells:
  • 30397, conf, Newfield, Gariety 150-98-6-7-10H, Siverston, no production data,
  • 30398, 1,891, Newfield, Gariety 150-98-6-7-4H, Siverston, t6/15; cum 290K 9/18; recently off-line; coming back on line as of 9/18;
  • 35573, conf, Newfield, Goliath 150-98-5-8-5H, Siverston, no production data,
  • 35389, conf, Newfield, Goliath 150-98-5-8-6H, Siverston, no production data,
  • 35574, conf, Newfield, Goliath 150-98-5-8-11H, Siverston, no production data,
  • 35391, conf, Newfield, Dahl 150-98-5-8-7H, Siverston, no production data,
  • 35390, conf, Newfield, Dahl 150-98-5-8-8HLW, Siverston, no production data,
  • 35516, conf, Newfield, Dahl 150-98-5-8-12H, Siverston, no production data,

Like The Popular Vote -- It Would Be Interesting To Back Out The State Of California In This Graphic -- November 25, 2018

From twitter:

It would be interesting to see this same graph "backing out" (removing) California from the data base. I can't talk to gasoline prices from DC to NYC to Bean Town but I can talk to the gasoline prices in California. One wonders to what extent the price of gasoline in California skews the national average.

In addition, the graphic confuses the reader: the "headline" is for the "Thanksgiving price" but the graphic is of the entire year -- to see just Thanksgiving, one has to concentrate on the "black dots." Removing the blue line, "tells" a completely different story than that suggested by the blue line.

A year ago, $2.53 is probably statistically and significantly no different than this year, $2.61.

$2.61 this year is less expensive than it was back in 2009 and 2010. It wasn't until 2011 through 2014 -- when we were told that we couldn't drill our way to less expensive oil -- Barack Obama -- when we saw gasoline prices appreciably higher, coming close to $4/gallon during the summer of those years -- as an "average."

The Saudi Surge -- when oil plummeted in price -- was from early 2015 to early 2017. Notice the huge drop in the price of gasoline January, 2014 to January, 2015. The tanking continued through January, 2016, when the Saudis cut back on exports.

Looking at just the "dots," the "average" price of gasoline at Thanksgiving for 2018, 2017, 2016, and 2015, were all lower than all previous years (from Thanksgiving, 2009, to Thanksgiving, 2014.

Of the ten (10) Thanksgiving prices shown, the four lowest were the last four years. 


I'm watching "drone racing" in the penultimate global drone race on ESPN. It's being held in Munich, Germany. If one wants to know where younger NASCAR fans are going, watch drone racing: the younger generation is going to drone racing. This is something directly out of "Star Wars," the movie. The contestants are vying for an invite to the global championship to be held in .... Saudi Arabia.

Once they add artificial noise to the drones .... 

Interestingly, one of the big sponsors is the US Air Force. 

Production By Association -- A Kermit Well -- November 25, 2018

Lots of fracking activity taking place in this area recently.

Let's take a look at this well:
  • 16792, 689, BR, Kermit 1-32H, Pershing, t5/08; cum 166K 9/18; recent production -- that 5,060 bbls in 17 days extrapolates to 9,000 bbls over 30 days --
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

This well was drilled back in 2008. By today's standards it was not a good well. But we talked about that at the time. Regardless of whether it was a good well or not, it was not a dry hole and it held the lease by production.

Now, we are getting great wells in the area, and because of "production by association," this well will likely turn into a great well.

It was my understanding that once a well reached "peak production" it would show steady decline after that.

These Bakken wells are going to produce for 30 years and they will go through the Bakken life-cycle of frack, re-work; neighboring fracks; mini re-fracks; re-work; major re-fracks over those 30 years. This well is already ten years old and has had no major work done on it -- based on NDIC sundry forms -- during all that time. Biggest associated expense, I support, disposing of produced water.

The Literature Page

Somehow I missed this in all my years of "formal" education, but by reading for pleasure I came upon the concept of "originality" in literature, a common theme for Harold Bloom. After reading Harold Bloom years ago, I enjoy looking for examples of "originality."

Today, another great example in Karen Armstrong's Biography of the Bible, c. 2007.

Page 26:
In P's (the Priestly school in Babylonian exile that revised J and E's writings, added Leviticus and Numbers to the torah), the exile was the latest in a sequence of migrations: Adam and Even had been expelled from Eden; Cain condemned to a life of homeless vagrancy after murdering Abel; the human race had been scattered at the Tower of Babel; Abraham had left Ur; the tribes had emigrated to Egypt, and eventually lived as nomads in the desert. In their latest dispersal, the exiles must build a community to which the presence (of the Lord) could return.

In a startling innovation, P suggested that the entire people observe the purity laws of the temple personnel. Everybody must live as though he were serving the divine presence. Israel must be "holy" (qaddosh) and "separate" like Yahweh, so P crafted a way of life based on the principle of separation.

The exiles must live apart from their Babylonian neighbours, observing distinctive rules of diet and cleanliness. Then -- and only then -- Yahweh would live among them.

"I will place my tabernacle in your midst," God told them, "and I will walk about among you."
Babylonia could become another Eden, where God had walked with Adam int he cool of the evening.
Winging Their Way Back Home From California

Production By Association -- Wiley And Bailey -- November 25, 2018

The graphic:

Let's take a look at two wells: #17742 and #17770.

The well:
  • 17770, 406, CLR, Bailey 1-24H, 33-053-02964, Pershing, t4/10; cum 186K 9/18; recent production data --
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The well:
  • 17742, 668, CLR, Wiley 1-25H, 33-053-02958, Pershing, t6/09; cum 176K 9/18, recent production -- 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

By the way, similar production profiles for #19934, #19936, #19933, and #19935. Worth repeating:

Someone recently said that they could quit drilling new wells in the Bakken for a year or so, simply complete the DUCs and return inactive wells to production, and North Dakota would continue to maintain production at current levels. The example above supports that view.

Whatever happened to all that talk about the Red Queen?

I also remember all that hand-wringing by mineral owners upset that oil companies were going to be drilling new wells near their wells that were already producing.

Something tells me there is still a lot to learn about tight oil, unconventional oil, the Bakken. 

Production By Association -- The Nathan Hale -- Spotted Horn -- November 25, 2018

The Grizzly wells are coming off the confidential list this next week.

The graphic:

The well of interest, has not been re-fracked according to NDIC data at this time, last sundry form of note received in 2013:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Someone recently said that they could quit drilling new wells in the Bakken for a year or so, simply complete the DUCs and return inactive wells to production, and North Dakota would continue to maintain production at current levels. The example above supports that view.

Whatever happened to all that talk about the Red Queen?

I also remember all that hand-wringing by mineral owners upset that oil companies were going to be drilling new wells near their wells that were already producing.

Something tells me there is still a lot to learn about tight oil, unconventional oil, the Bakken. 

Manufacturing Phase Of The Bakken -- November 25, 2018

A lot of familiar "family" name wells coming off the confidential list this week.

The Oasis Lite wells are tracked here.

The Enerplus "Heavy Metal" wells are tracked here.

Bruin will be reporting more Fort Berthold wells this week.

The CLR Wiley wells are tracked here.

The CLR Miles-Kennedy wells are tracked here.

The XTO Rink wells are tracked here.

The Oasis Kjorstad wells are tracked here.

The Newfield Yellowfin wells are tracked here.

Farmers Market

Four nice bell peppers -- described as a day old -- whatever that means -- the four were sold for 99 cents, total, not apiece. [The day-old peppers were behind me, not in the photo.]

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- November 25, 2018

Six months ago it was coming up on the vernal equinox. The days were going to soon get longer and the weather improving. 

Monday, December 3, 2018:

Sunday, December 2, 2018:
33695, conf, Oasis, Lite 5393 31-11 9B, Sanish, a big well;

Saturday, December 1, 2018:
33968, conf, Enerplus, Nickel 147-93-16B-21H-TF, Moccasin Creek, a nice well;
31264, conf, Oasis, Kjorstad 5300 34-22 9B, Willow Creek, a very nice well;

Friday, November 30, 2018
33696, conf, Oasis, Lite 5303 131-11 8T, Sanish, a nice well;
33242, conf, Oasis, Muri 5198 12-4 5B, Banks, a huge well --
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

33227, conf, CLR, Kennedy 5-31H, Dimmick Lake, a nice well;
33110, conf, CLR, Wiley 10-25H, Pershing, a nice well --
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

30543, conf, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26A-35-6H, Antelope, a huge well --
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Thursday, November 29, 2018:
34590, conf, WPX, Grizzly 25-36HIL, a nice well, 33K first month;
34322, conf, Nine Point Energy, Sigma Lee 155-103-14-23-8H, Squires, producing,
33697, conf, Oasis, Lite 5393 31-11 7B, Sanish, a nice well;
30544, conf, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-4-26A-35-7H, Antelope, producing, 

Wednesday, November 28, 2018:
34738, conf, BR, Rink 6-1-5MBH-R, Pershing, producing,
33111, conf, CLR, Wiley 9-25H2, Pershing, a nice well --
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

30545, conf, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26A-35-9H, Antelope, a huge well --
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

30542, conf, Bruin, Fort Berthold 151-94-26A-35-5H, Antelope, a nice well, 

Tuesday, November 27, 2018:
34802, conf, Newfield, Yellowfin 150-98-6-7-9HLW, Siverston, a nice well, 29K first month, 
34589, conf, WPX, Grizzly 25-36HW, Spotted Horn, a huge well; 30K in first month;
33699, conf, Oasis, Lite 5393 31-11 6T, Sanish, a nice well --
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

33698, conf, Oasis, Lite 5393 31-11 6T, Sanish, a nice well --
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Monday, November 26, 2018:
34801, conf, Newfield, Yellowfin 150-98-6-7-8H, Siverston, a nice well; 24K first full month;
34587, conf, WPX, Grizzly 25-36HX, Spotted Horn, 30K first month reporting, unknown number of days;

Sunday, November 25, 2018:
34800, conf, Newfield, Yellowfin 150-98-6-7-7H, Siverston, a nice well; 25K first full month;
34610, conf, Petro-Hunt, Klevmoen 153-95-17C-7-1H, Charlson, no production data,
34586, conf, WPX, Grizzly 25-36HF, Spotted Horn; producing;
34254, conf, Bruin, Sadowsky 14-11-2H, producing; 
34051, conf, WPX, Howling Wolf 28-33D, Wolf Bay, no production data,
33112, conf, CLR, Wiley 8-25H, Pershing, a huge well --
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

Saturday, November 24, 2018:
34585, conf, WPX, Grizzly 25-36HY, Spotted Horn, producing;
33226, conf, CLR, Kennedy 6-31H2, Dimmick Lake, another nice Miles-Kennedy pad well --

DateOil RunsMCF Sold