Thursday, January 9, 2020

Off The Net For The Evening -- January 9, 2020

Wow, there is just too much happening.

The Kraken Bigfoot wells. The Liberty Pipeline project. The Outrigger - XOM deal near Williston.

The market.

The Mideast.

Schwab-Ameritrade deal. It will be a year for that to close, I suppose.

Apple. Or should we say AAPL?

I can't go on anymore tonight. I'm truly mentally (and physically) exhausted. Of course, some of the physical exhaustion comes from Uber-driving. It's been one-heck of a week.

Futures mean squat, but right now, 8:28 p.m. CT, Thursday night, January 9, 2020, the Dow's implied open is up another 60 points.

Trump is having another incredible rally.

Pelosi, with regard to the articles of impeachment, is in uncharted territory. Imagine if the US House voted to impeach the Republican president but the Speaker of the House was a Republican and a friend of the president who refused to send the articles of impeachment to a US Senate with a super majority of Democrats. Let's say the Republican president was clearly insane but the Speaker of the House, perhaps also a bit insane and a huge friend of the president, refused to send the Articles of Impeachment up to the Senate. Everyone in America clamoring for the Articles to be sent up to the US Senate and the Speaker of the US House refuses to do that. The Founding Fathers completely missed that scenario, it appears. They did not set time limits (sunset "law") with regard to sending Articles of Impeachment up to the US Senate. And no, the US House couldn't vote to impeach the speaker if the speaker did not put it on the agenda. Now, that would be a constitutional crisis.

Because of the current set of circumstances, no one really cares, and as time goes by, folks care even less. It's not a constitutional crisis because no one cares.

I assume that Pelosi has the pulse on Ruth's medical condition (pun intended). If a Supreme Court position were to come open tonight, I can guarantee the Articles of Impeachment would be on Mitch McConnell's desk in a Schumeresque New York minute. The Articles of Impeachment take precedent over everything else.

So, I don't know what is taking the bigger toll on me. I honestly don't think it's the shenanigans in DC. I think it's the market -- I'm naturally acrophobic -- that exhausts me and perhaps all the news that keeps coming out of the Bakken. I would like to stop blogging for 48 hours to rest, but if I quit for even 24 hours it seems to take forever to catch up.

I don't really know that much about the Bakken except at a very, very superficial level. When I say I don't really know that much about the Bakken, I'm talking about the investment angle. That's why I try to remind folks daily that this is not an investment site. I'm interested in the science of the Bakken and the confluence of politicians, regulators, surface owners, mom-and-pop mineral owners, operators, etc., that somehow make the Bakken work. I'm not interested in the investment angle, but following the money is an important component of understanding the Bakken.

The Uber-driving was worse than usual. They are re-surfacing the main thoroughfare through Southlake -- a six-lane divided boulevard, and lane closures often push it to one lane in each direction. Alternate routes are impossible, mostly because of "urban planning" that minimized through-traffic through residential neighborhoods. Had it not been for this "urban planning" there would have been multiple alternate routes.

The highlight of my day is the time I spend with Sophia. Tonight, pitch black outside and she wanted to ride her scooter. No one else in the world would even think of entertaining that ridiculous request, to go scootering in a busy apartment complex parking lot that is poorly lit and pitch black outside. But we put on her helmet; put on reflective tape on her arms and legs, and then I got on my bicycle and rode alongside her as she dodged in and out of parked cars and folks coming home from work.

She did two trips around the complex and then, on her own, said she was done. I knew it would not last long. It was easier to go through the process than argue with her for twenty minutes why we shouldn't be doing it.

A lot of times, it's all about control. And in this case, Sophia felt in control .... she wanted to ride her scooter and whether she was allowed to or not depended upon who was going to be in control: a responsible adult (that should have been me) or a crazy five-year-old (that would have been Sophia). So, Sophia got to control the situation but after a couple quick trips she had filled that square and ready to go back in the house.

Okay, enough of this. When I close the laptop I won't see e-mail or comments. Replying to either will have to wait until tomorrow. Typographical and content errors will have to wait.

Good luck to all. 

Production Jumps For Older Producing Wells Neighboring The Recently Fracked Huge Bigfoot Wells -- January 9, 2020

Note: it is difficult to visualize these wells without graphics, but I'm too exhausted to do the graphics tonight. If I remember, I will do the graphics later this week.  

The Bigfoot wells are tracked here

The nine wells below are producing wells and are in close proximity to the Bigfoot wells. In seven cases, the laterals parallel the Bigfoot wells for at least one section, generally two sections.
  • 17812, Kraken, Anderson 11-14H, huge jump in production; see below;
  • 21381, Kraken, Dinwoodie 11-14H, huge jump in production; see below:
  • 28025, Kraken, Donnie 11-14H, no jump in production;
  • 22429, Kraken, Reynold 14-11H, jump in production;
  • 30612, IA, Sinclair, Uran 5-15H; off line as of 1/19; remains off line 11/19;
  • 31470, Sinclair, Uran 6-15TFHa new well but taken off line 10/19; remains off line 11/19;
  • 22853, Kraken, Isaac 11-23H, jump in production; see below;
These two wells are not parallel to the new Bigfoot wells:
  • 22563, the lateral is 90-degrees to the new Bigfoot wells, Kraken, Hukkanen 11-23H, jump in production; see below;
  • 16953, the lateral is 45-degreess to the new Bigfoot wells; Kraken, Fladeland 11-15H, off line 10/19; remains off line 11/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Kraken Bigfoot Wells: Three-Section, Extended Long Laterals, 90 - 105 Stages; 15 - 23 Million Lbs Proppant

The original note regarding the Kraken Bigfoot wells is here, but that page will no longer be updated. The Kraken Bigfoot wells will now be tracked here.

Halo effect: see this post for wells positively impacted by the Bigfoot wells

The Kraken Bigfoot wells came off confidential list, January 9, 2020.

The wells, triple-section; extended long laterals; 1920-acre spacing except for the section line well (3,840-acre spacing / 6 sections):
  • 36013, 1,564, Kraken, Bigfoot 23-11 4TFH, 90 stages; 23.07 million lbs; Sanish, t7/19; cum 265K 3/20; a 41K month;
  • 36012, 1,748, Kraken, Bigfoot 23-11 3H, 105 stages; 15.44 million lbs; Sanish, t7/19; cum 282K 3/20; a 53K month;
  • 36011, 902, Kraken Bigfoot23-11 2TFH, 90 stages; 23.07 million lbs;Sanish, t7/19; cum 206K 3/20; a 31K month;
  • 36010, 860, Kraken, Bigfoot 23-11 LW 1H, 105 stages, 15.44 million lbs, Sanish, t7/19; cum 252K 3/20; a 46K month; spacing: 3840-acre; 
The four wells above run from the south to the north, through three sections. The nine wells are producing wells and are in close proximity to the Bigfoot wells. In seven cases, the laterals parallel the Bigfoot wells for at least one section, generally two sections.
  • 17812, 660, Kraken, Anderson 11-14H, Sanish, t6/09; cum 353K 3/20; huge jump in production;
  • 21381, 1,150, Kraken, Dinwoodie 11-14H, Sanish, t1/12; cum 277K 3/20; huge jump in production;
  • 28025, 442, Kraken, Donnie 11-14H, Sanish, t9/14; cum 277K 3/20; no demonstrable change after Bigfoot wells fracked;
  • 22429, 743, Kraken, Reynold 11-14H, Sanish, t6/12; cum 270K 3/20; nice jump in production;
  • 30612, IA/461, Sinclair, Uran 5-15H, Sanish, t5/17; cum 270K 3/20;
  • 31470, 602, Sinclair, Uran 6-15TFH, Sanish, t8/19; cum 44K 3/20;
  • 22853, 687, Kraken, Isaac 11-23, Sanish, t7/12; cum 150K 3/20; small but definite jump in production.
These two wells are not parallel to the new Bigfoot wells:
  • 22563, the lateral is 90-degrees to the new Bigfoot wells, 704, Kraken, Hukkanen 11-23, Sanish, t6/12; cum 171K 3/20;
  • 16953, the lateral is 45-degreess to the new Bigfoot wells, IA/440, Kraken, Fladeland 11-15, Sanish, t4/09; cum 259K 9/19; off line 10/19; remains off line3/20;
The graphics:

Production data and further information for these wells posted here.

  • 36013, Three Forks:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 36012, middle Bakken:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 36011, Three Forks:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
  • 36011, middle Bakken:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Chicken Or The Egg -- Production Vs Takeaway Capacity -- Can't Have One Without The Other -- January 9, 2020

Over at GlobalData: North America will contribute 51% of global new-build crude oil trunk / transmission pipeline length additions by 2023. Link here. Data points:
  • build-out: between 2019 and 2023
  • North America (which includes, for newbies, Canada and Mexico)
  • by 2023, 29 new-build crude oil pipelines to start operations;
  • 16 are planned projects; 4,289 miles;
  • 13 are in early-stage announcements; 4,317 miles;
  • Liberty Oil Project: the longest upcoming announced pipeline in the region; 1,303 miles;
The narrative is "okay," but look at the graphic, this just blows me away, there's simply no comparison:

If I have the correct pipeline, this was on the blog, back on June 11, 2019:
June 11, 2019: $1.6 billion, 200,000 bopd, Liberty Pipeline proposed for North Dakota.
You know, for those keeping track, in the last two days two huge stories both involving North Dakota -- first it was Outrigger mentioned on Rigzone, and now the Liberty Pipeline mentioned on GlobalData.

Paying Too Much For Cable? Absolutely Nothing About The Bakken -- January 9, 2020

If you came here looking for the Bakken, scroll down or scroll to the sidebar at the right. I don't plan to mention anything about this Bakken in this post.

This is just idle rambling while waiting to pick up Sophia.


Back to this issue: the cost of cable television and internet. I last visited this subject a few months ago.

When it comes to cable (and the telephone bill, for that matter) how much is too much?

I have no idea.

But, wow, talk about unexpected pleasures.

Today, while waiting at Starbucks while my 2012 Honda Civic (bought in 2011) was being serviced (routine maintenance), I was curious if I could watch cable television on my laptop. Spectrum had said for quite some time that I could but I had never really tried it out.

Lo and behold! There it was. Seamless. No problems. There it was. All two hundred channels on my laptop. And when I got home, I opened up the laptop and there it was again. Absolutely seamless.

Home, Sweet Home

Earlier today, a reader, noting the Vern Whitten photos of Fargo, then and now, commiserated -- if that's the best word -- about urban sprawl. I replied.

Wow, it opened up so many issues. At the end of the day, all I can say is "to each his own."  Some folks love the high-density, high-rise experience of NYC, San Francisco. Others love the wide open spaces and a multi-thousand-acre ranch tens of miles (if not hundreds of miles) from civilization. The great thing about much of the western world: one can move where one wants. Even if you have no money, I can guarantee you can find a job anywhere you want and are willing to live on whatever hourly wage or salary you might earn. I'm not saying it would be easy; I'm just saying that one has infinite opportunities in the western world. Or at least that's my myth. And, yes, I know there are those who truly cannot but for the audience that might actually read this blog, I think they know about what I'm talking.

If I understood the reader correctly, the reader favored more urban planning, not less.

When I was in eighth grade, my dad brought me along with his father -- the three generations -- to visit my grandfather's ancestral home near Trondheim, Norway.

On our way back to the states, on our way to Paris to catch the return flight, we traveled through West Germany, and then took THE AUTOBAHN through East Germany to Berlin. East Berlin did an incredible job with urban planning. West Berlin? Apparently not so much. Which side of the wall was a gazillion times better? The side with less urban planning. At least that's what I recall. There's probably a happy medium.

The Market

One word: wow.

Are all three major indices going to hit new highs today. Back on January 8 -- wow, that was just yesterday -- I posed a "reading comprehension question," #6 to be exact.

I didn't get any feedback on that.

The question: Read the article [at the link] and point out the single most important data point reported for mom-and-pop retail investors and millennial investors.

Here's my answer:
Private equity managers are paying record prices to secure deals and combining these investments with high levels of debt. They are also sitting on a record amount of unallocated capital, known as dry powder, which is close to $2.5 trillion, suggesting that profitable deals are becoming harder to find.
$2.5 trillion held by private equity managers in unallocated capital (cash).

That's just what is held in unallocated capital by private equity managers. One wonders what percent of total unallocated capital this represents? It's obviously less than 100%.

The Book Page

"Bicycle" book that Sophia and I received at Christmas. It's the story of a man who gets so "angry" at some event, he goes on a long, long bicycle ride .... a book my wife thought written exactly for me. LOL

Sinclair With Three New Permits; WPX WIth One -- January 9, 2020

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5564533758

Four new permits, #37325 - #37328, inclusive --
  • Operators: Sinclair (3); WPX
  • Fields: Little Knife, Squaw Creek
  • Comments: 
    • Sinclair has permits for a 3-well Porcupine pad in section 19-146-97, Little Knife oil field;
    • WPX has a permit for a Nokota well in Squaw Creek, lot 10/section 1-149-95
Nine permits renewed:
  • Whiting (3): a G Bergstrom permit, a Kaldahl permit, those two in Williams County; and, a Roggenbuck permit in Mountrail County;
  • Kaiser-Francis (2): an Agnes permit and an Albert permit in Stark County 
  • Rimrock (2): two Skunk Creek permits in Dunn County;
  • MRO: a Storedale permit in Dunn County 
  • NP Resources: a 20002 Agate permit in Golden Valley County
Wells coming off confidential list today: Thursday, January 9, 2019 --

  • 36013, 1,564, Kraken, Bigfoot 23-11 4TFH, Sanish, t7/19; cum 171K 11/19; a 41K month;
  • 36012, 1,748, Kraken, Bigfoot 23-11 3H, Sanish, t7/19; cum 210K 11/19; a 53K month;
  • 36011, 902, Kraken Bigfoot23-11 2TFH, Sanish, t7/19; cum 104K 11/19; a 31K month;
  • 36010, 860, Kraken, Bigfoot 23-11 LW 1H, Sanish, t7/19; cum 134K 11/19; a 46K month;
  • 35572, 1,229, Whiting, Anderson 41-7HU, Sanish, t7/19; cum 88K 11/19; a 22K month;
  • 33185, SI/NC, BR, Franklin 34-36TFH, Little Knife, no production data,

Fargo, Then And Now -- Vern Whitten Photography -- January 9, 2019

Belatedly I'm posting this. A big apology to Mr Vern Whitten for the delay getting these posted.

Link here

Mr Whitten sent me these photos over New Year's -- I was traveling and am still getting caught up.

These are aerial photos of Fargo, before (1993) and after (2019).

Truly amazing.

Mr Whitten would love to hear from you -- and I'm sure he can provide you a copy if you wanted one.

Vern Whitten Photography

The Democrat Presidential Nomination Race -- Idle Rambling -- January 9, 2020

With several new polls out, nothing has changed. These are the likely scenarios, based on current polling. State to watch: California. Buttigieg will do well in California but not enough to make up for the delegates he won't get in the other states.
  • brokered convention
    • most likely of the several scenarios assuming no skullduggery by the DNC movers and shakers, Hillary, Bill, Michelle, and/or Barack, prior to the convention (huge, huge assumption);
    • no one candidate has 50% +1 of the delegates going into first vote
    • no second-tier candidate has enough delegates to release to change first-vote outcome
    • goes to second round and super-delegates (i.e., Hillary, Bill, Michelle, and Barack) get their nominee
  • scenario #2:
    • Pocahontas faces by Super Tuesday; spoiler role only;
    • prior to first vote, Biden has just under 50%;
    • Steyer, Yang, Klobuchar release their delegates to support Sanders
    • Pocahontas refuses to release delegates
    • first vote: Sanders, close to 50% but misses; Biden in second; 
    • second vote (brokered convention) forced
  • scenario #3:
    • Pocahontas does well enough on Super Tuesday to be king-maker;
    • prior to first vote, Biden has just under 50%;
    • releasing her delegates on first vote, Pocahontas could give Sanders the nomination
      • she is promised VP 
  • king-maker? Buttigieg -- 
    • in all scenarios, if it's that close, Buttigieg could release delegates to get the nominee he wants
    • I don't see Pocahontas as the king-maker, except possibly threatening to release her delegates to support Sanders
    • Buttigieg's best change: VP under Biden (no pun intended)
  • at the end of the day
    • Sanders on the first vote, or,
    • brokered convention and super-delegates pick nominee 
    • Pocahontas or Buttigieg, in exchange for a VP promise, give the nomination to Sanders or Biden in first round of voting;
  • odds:
    • Sanders, on the first vote: 10% chance that will happen
    • brokered convention and super-delegates get their nominee: 90% chance that will happen
My hunch is that, except for Biden, every other Democrat running for the nomination will do everything in his/her power to keep this from going to the second round of voting when they -- the hopeful candidates -- will lose all relevancy.

The Book Page

Lamarck's Revenge: How Epigenetics Is Revolutionizing Our Understanding of Evolution's Past and Present, Peter Ward, c. 2018.

  • Amazon, hard cover: $11.20 (free with points/cash back); today/now;
  • Barnes and Noble: $37 with 10% off as a B&N member; tomorrow, maybe the next day;
Don't let me over-think this.

The Apple Page -- January 9, 2020

First, the chart:

Now the headlines: some were previously posted --
    Apple: extends record run as China iPhone sales surge.

    Apple: 18% more iPhones shipped to China. Barron's paywall. 

    Apple: App Store sales hit record $1.4 billion in final days of 2019. These are just "apps" and this is just the final days of the holiday season.

    Apple: App Store set single-day spending record of $386 million on New Year's Day. This was just the "app store" and this was on a single day.

    Apple: could be close to a $2 trillion company in 2020.

    Apple: AAPL stock gaps up to another record after upbeat data on China iPhone sales ; link here;

      Minnesota Utilty Costs To Increase In 2020 Due To Renewable Energy Costs -- Xcel Minnesota -- January 9, 2020

      Anyone paying attention knows what is going on here.

      If I was asked to name the one US public utility company that is the face of the renewable energy scam, I would say it was .... drum roll ... Xcel Minnesota.

      So, when Don sent me this headline --

      ... Don also read between the lines ...

      ... renewable energy is way too costly for customers and there's not enough capacity anyway ..

      The headline:
      Xcel Minnesota: burning coal seasonally will save customers millions, reduce emissions.

      Link here.
      Xcel Energy Minnesota wants to burn some of its coal under economic and seasonal dispatch instead of through self-scheduling practices, it told state regulators in December.

      The utility submitted a filing with the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission (PUC) to begin offering its two remaining coal plants seasonally into the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), rather than self-committing the plants to the market, which leads to market distortions, according to research from the Sierra Club and the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). The move is part of an ongoing proceeding opened by state regulators in November, and several clean energy groups in the state have been pressing the utility to consider moving away from self-scheduling.

      The measures are estimated to reduce customer costs by tens of millions of dollars and 5 million tons of carbon emissions annually by optimizing use of the plants. Minnesota's PUC was the first state commission in the country to open up a docket on this issue, according to UCS Senior Energy Analyst Joe Daniel, whose research implies the market distorting effects of self-scheduling are widespread across regional power markets. 
      We'll have to google "self-scheduling" vs "seasonal dispatch" later.

      Fifty dollars a year is peanuts ----- except the solar/wind folks told us renewable energy was free and utility costs would go down. Not only are utility costs not going down, they will increase in 2020, according to Xcel Energy.

      There are so many story lines here; if I had the time ... but I don't.

      But anyone who tells me wind/solar is less expensive than $2-nat gas is full of malarkey -- as Joe would say. 

      EIA Natural Gas Report

      Link here.
      • prior: - 58 bcf
      • most recent: - 44 bcf
      Also here

      NDIC Posts Yesterday's Daily Activity Report -- Nineteen Permits Renewed; Hess Reports Great IPs From Recently Completed DUCs -- January 9 , 2020

      Link here.

      Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- January 9, 2020

      Busy, busy, busy today. Will do quick takes and come back to them later. Maybe.

      Jobs, link here:
      • prior: 222K
      • revised: 223K
      • consensus forecast: 219K
      • actual: 214K
      • change: down 9,000
      • no signs of wage inflation
      • what's not to like
      Rigzone has the story, also -- tells you how big this story is -- Exxon, Outrigger ink midstream deal to serve the Bakken

      Trump backs away from conflict with Iran. Bloomberg via Rigzone. Interesting headline. My headline: Iran blinked.

      Track the 82nd Airborne Division headed to the Mideast here.

      Track the Iranian economy here: in six charts.

      Now we know: it was a Russian missile.

      Tesla deaths tracked here. #14 here for the NTSB? Two fatal US Tesla crashes on same day, December 29, 2019: one in Gardena, California; one in Indiana.

      The Wall: appeals court allows use of $3.6 billion in military construction funds for border wall.

      Apple: extends record run as China iPhone sales surge.

      Apple: 18% more iPhones shipped to China. Barron's paywall. 

      Apple: App Store sales hit record $1.4 billion in final days of 2019. These are just "apps" and this is just the final days of the holiday season.

      Apple: App Store set single-day spending record of $386 million on New Year's Day. This was just the "app store" and this was on a single day.

      Apple: could be close to a $2 trillion company in 2020.

      Apache: I was wondering why this stock soared the other day, but ran out of time, and then forgot, to try to find out. Tsvetana Paraskova explains. And here, Anes Alic explains.

      Making Texas great: the ten largest planned petrochemical and plastics plants (graphic undated; unsure of source):

      Making Texas great: Texas ethylene terminal loads first cargo

      Shell: looking for 15% for retail gasoline market in Mexico.

      Offshore: will be a busy, busy year. So much for all that CAPEX handwringing.

      Off-shore: Transocean contract backlog grows by $353 million.
      New "national" poll out: again, the only interesting thing about this poll is that the Economist continues to be an outlier when it comes to Pocahontas.

      Cancer-free: Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

      Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. 

      Five Wells Come Off The Confidential List Today; Kraken Will Report Four Huge Bigfoot Wells -- January 9, 2020

      NDIC's daily activity report for yesterday, Wednesday, January 8, 2020 has been posted: nineteen permits renewed; Hess reports three DUCs completely; great IPs.

      Now, Back to Today

      Active rigs:

      Active Rigs5664533758

      Wells coming off the confidential list today:

      Thursday, January 9, 2019:
      • 36013, conf, Kraken, Bigfoot 23-11 4TFH
      • 36012, conf, Kraken, Bigfoot 23-11 3H,
      • 36011, conf, Kraken Bigfoot23-11 2TFH
      • 36010, conf, Kraken, Bigfoot 23-11 LW 1H, 
      • 35572, conf, Whiting, Anderson 41-7HU, 
      RBN Energy: how global prices drive US LNG cargo destinations.
      After showing relative strength through most of the fall, prices at the UK’s National Balancing Point (NBP) natural gas benchmark collapsed by more than $1/MMBtu in December and have kept falling, and Asia’s Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) index followed suit to some degree.
      Nevertheless, U.S. LNG export cargoes were at record highs in December as additional liquefaction and export capacity came online last month, including the first LNG export cargoes from the Elba Liquefaction project as well as Freeport LNG’s Train 2. Moreover, U.S. shipments are expected to climb further in the New Year as still more liquefaction trains are completed. While the global price spreads haven’t deterred U.S. exports, they, along with shipping costs, do influence export economics and cargo destinations. Today, we wrap up this series with a look at how LNG export costs interact with global price spreads and impact cargo destinations.