Saturday, April 1, 2017

Predicting The Price Of Oil Is A Fool's Errand ... April 1, 2017

... but ... having said that ...

$70 by the end of the year? Someone thinks so. John Kemp tweeted it.

I am posting this only to help me keep backwardation and contango "straight" in my mind (a nice definition at this post).
Oil prices are not capped around $55 as is widely assumed but rather are on track to hit $70 per barrel later this year, according to Pierre Andurand, managing partner at Andurand Capital Management.
We're currently at a crossroads from where oil prices should significantly rebound, Andurand told CNBC on the sidelines of an event Thursday evening where he was crowned the winner of the EMEA Investor's Choice Awards for 2017.
"I think oil prices are likely to recover to around $70 … I think the market will switch to backwardation – sustainable backwardation – by late summer and that will bring the next wave in oil prices," he said, referring to the situation where nearer-term spot price oil contracts are more expensive than longer-dated forward contracts.
2017 Geico Rock Award Nominee

Take you pick, but for this one I will nominate ABC News. The network seems surprised that Jared and Ivanka Trump are (really) wealthy. So are Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, and Warren Buffett, Elon Musk, Bernie Sanders, among many, many other democrats.

Williston Wire -- April 1, 2017

Airport: JE Dunn, the 10th largest general contractor in the United States, was approved by the Williston City Commission at its meeting Tuesday, March 28, to build the new Williston Basin International Airport terminal. The general contracting firm, with an office in Williston, was chosen through a quality-based selection process as the Construction Manager at Risk, winning out over one other bidder.

Crosby Bank: BNC National Bank opened its new building on Main Street in Crosby March 27. After years of planning and months of anticipation, bank employees are gaining space and also, drive-up lanes. 

Bowman development: U.S. Senator Heidi Heitkamp has announced that the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has released the land where the former Bowman Municipal Airport was located. For years, the FAA delayed on signing off on the land release that Bowman was requesting. The land release will allow developers to go forward with an industrial park in Bowman that is planned for the former airport site. 

The Daily White House Press Briefing

The daily White House press briefing with Sean Spicer is a lot like the Rush Limbaugh's daily broadcast. I can only watch / listen to either for a few days in a row, and when I do listen can only listen for part of the broadcast. 

Early on I thought Spicer was too argumentative with the press, thinking he should dial it back a bit, but after listening yesterday for the first time in a few days, it dawned on me. The daily briefing is one of the very, very few venues in which the "president's story" is told and there is no requirement for the opposition party to provide a response. 

And this is daily, lasting one to two hours. Whether one "likes" Spicer or not, one has to give him credit: he certainly appears to know his stuff. Yesterday, he casually mentioned that gatekeepers to the Oval Office do not know who is on the 18-acre "White House campus" at any given time. What amazed me is that he knew the campus was 18 acres in size. My hunch is that not one other person in that room knew that.  

Eighteen acres. That's enough for several multi-well Bakken pads.

Update: Bakken Pipeline Takeaway Capacity -- April 1, 2017

Early on, I had a lot of posts regarding "takeaway capacity" in the Bakken. I haven't looked at that in a long time. Here is a link to a Oil & Gas Finanacial Journal story from late last year that brings us up to date: Bakken Piepline Takeaway Capacity.


Van Hook Braces For Drilling -- The Bismarck Tribune -- April 1, 2017

A few days ago I posted a very, very long note regarding a large multi-well pad in Van Hook that Slawson was getting ready to drill. Today, The Bismarck Tribune has a human interest story regarding this drilling, with a few data points that help round out the original post.