Thursday, November 17, 2016

US Begins Exports Of Natural Gas To OPEC Countries In The Mideast -- November 17, 2016

Earlier in passing I posted this brief note, sent to me from a reader.
Forbes: reversing Middle East dependence: U.S. begins exports of shale gas to oil-rich UAE And Kuwait.

Two cargoes of shale gas liquefied at Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass terminal in Louisiana were exported to Kuwait. A third went to the United Arab Emirates. Jordan imported two more.
It's an incredibly interesting story. Folks trying to figure out the US oil and gas industry need to read the linked article. If you want to know why Kuwait, UAE, and Jordan would import natural gas from the US, it's a must read.

The Wall -- Part II

Some years ago Vanity Fair had a two-page photograph of the incoming George W. Bush cabinet with Condoleezza Rice, et al. I always thought it was quite a photograph. For the Clinton administration, one photograph included James Carville (I think).

Earlier I talked about how interesting it will be to watch the Trump presidency.

I had not thought about it until now, but after hearing Ivanka Trump school Leslie Stahl, it dawned on me that in addition to everything else, Trump will be organizing and/or prioritizing his operations differently than past administrations. I think Trump will have a formidable wall: his three older children and wife among the inner circle; and then Bannon, Pence, and Flynn in the next circle; and then, his Chief of Staff, in the third circle out.

It is going to be very interesting to see the wiring diagram.  It may look like any other conventional West Wing wiring diagram but the key will be the stemwinders and the doorkeepers, not necessarily identified. One may get a better idea of how stemwinders and doorkeepers work by watching Veep rather than watching House of Cards. I wonder if Pence won't take a more active role than most vice presidents. I don't know. I just have that feeling.

It is very possible Trump will face the same "problem" as Abraham Lincoln, with a slight twist: it won't be a team of "rivals" but a team of huge, huge personalities, many of whom will have future political plans.

Jared Kushner and father-in-law will want to organize the administration along the lines of a holding corporation with four or five operating divisions. Meanwhile, he will have the military organizational input from Lt Gen (Ret) Mike Flynn in his role as National Security Advisor, a post that does not need Senate confirmation.

It's also going to be "fun" to watch a melded family in the White House: the older three, a young adult coming of age and then the 10-year-old son, and his mother.

Another Look Comparing The Gold Standard (The Bakken) With The Permian -- November 17, 2016


November 18, 2016: note the first comment --
For those doing the math, the total of the Core and Non-core townships included equals 270 (36 square miles in each) which totals just under 10,000 square miles.
The ND Oil and Gas Division has often cited about 15,000 square miles as having "Bakken production potential". If this proves true, there are several thousand additional square miles which could add to the 19 Billion Bakken/TF EUR in North Dakota. 
Original Post
For a bit of background, go to this post:

From a reader:
I’ve been reading the impressive USGS numbers for expected production from the Wolfcamp, Permian Basin.

I do question some of the comments that 20 billion barrels of oil in the Permian makes it three times (3x) larger than the Bakken. (I know you have commented this statement, too.)

I recently updated my Bakken EUR estimate which is based on sworn testimony before the ND Oil and Gas Division, NDIC. The basis includes expected EURs and well density for various areas and zones of the Bakken/Three Forks as provided by the major operators in the Williston Basin.

This testimony clearly indicates that a majority of the total oil and gas production will come from wells in the core area which includes approximately 120 townships in eastern McKenzie, northern Dunn, western Mountrail and southern Williams Counties. These core townships are likely to have a ultimate average of 14 wells per 1280 acre unit. These 14 wells will primarily produce from the Middle Bakken and the first two benches of the Three Forks. The “core of core” has already shown that the third bench of the Three Forks has good potential. Some of these central core wells might have 18 wells per unit when drilling is finally completed.

Let’s do the math: 18-1280 acre units in 120 townships (2160 units) with an average of 14 wells per unit = 30,240 wells. If these wells have an average ultimate recovery of 500,000 barrels per well, the core area alone will produce some over 15 billion barrels of oil.
(The 500 K EUR is fairly modest with several operators now testifying to 700K, 900K EURs with new fracking techniques. Oasis’ latest presentation shows Bakken EUR’s of 1.55 million BOE and 1.2 million BOE for Three Forks one. These are based on results of the high intensity slickwater fracks in Siverston field north of Watford City. Keep in mind, Oasis estimates are barrels of oil equivalent. Since these well have very high Gas-Oil-Ratios, the crude oil EUR will likely be closer to 1.1 million and 900 barrels.)

In addition to the core area of the Bakken/TF, there are at least 150 townships that provide additional production. Again, I used 18 drilling units per township, resulting in 2,700 units. If an average of 6 wells are developed in each of these non-core units, there would be 16,200 wells. Using an ultimate recovery of 250,000 barrels for each of these wells would provide another 4 billion barrels of oil. 15 plus 4 puts the Bakken/Three Forks at 19 billion barrels of oil from about 48,000 wells. Lynn Helms, Director of the ND Oil and Gas Division, has used 50,000 plus wells in his ultimate projections.

Keep in mind, the non-core area will range of 10 to 12 wells per unit in areas joining the core to 1 or 2 wells per unit in the outer reaches. No matter how you figure this, the Bakken and Three Forks contain a lot of oil and gas. It will likely be 45 to 60 years before anyone knows the answer to the “how much” question.
That's an incredible piece of work.

This is what amazes me: the Wolfcamp covers half the state of Texas, and is up to a mile thick. The Bakken/Three Forks covers a few counties in western North Dakota and is no more than 60 feet thick. It's all about TOC. Total organic content. And oil-to-gas ratio.

Know what else amazes me? A reader would take the time to write such a long note as a comment. Much appreciated. Other readers really appreciate this. Again, I am humbled when I get notes like this. I have no training/background in the oil and gas industry; I assume my readers who send me notes like this one are much more knowledgeable. For them to take time to send me a note means much to me. Thank you. 

T+9: The Market -- Another "Up" Day; Update On The Russian Northern Fleet -- November 17, 2016

The Russian Northern Fleet: the tug is back out in the Mediterranean next to the a/c carrier. The last ping was five minutes ago. In the Mediterranean south of Adana, Turkey, home of Incirlik Air Base, Turkey, the major US Air Force installation in Turkey.  [Posted at 7:43 p.m. Central Time, November 17, 2016.]

The Cabinet

No one knows yet if Trump will nominate Mitt Romney as the next Secretary of State (I hope he does) but it speaks volumes that he's considering him. If you look past all the mainstream media mindlessness, one sees a method to his madness (one also sees the "magic hand" of his son Don, Jr., in the background).

I don't know if folks have noticed, but Rush Limbaugh seldom gets "lower" than presidential politics. He will get to Senate and House leadership (Reid and Pelosi) but that's as "low as he gets." Rush really keeps the discussion at the highest levels.

Likewise, it appears that Trump is really keeping his nominations at the very highest level. He's not picking losers (Newt Gingrich, Ben Carson,  Chris Christie). The closest he comes to picking a loser, is looking at Mitt Romney, but unlike the others, Mitt was the GOP nominee. I really hope Romney is selected as SecState. What an inspired choice! Again, hints of Don, Jr., in the background.

The Market

The Dow 30 has now been "up" six out of seven days; yesterday was the only one of the seven days following the election of Donald Trump was the market down. Today, the Dow 30 closed at 18,903, less than a hundred points from 19,000. WTI at $45.66, down slightly.

Gasoline Demand

Not sure what to make of this but it certainly tracks the job data today -- the surprising drop in first time claims for unemployment insurance. For an earlier discussion on gasoline demand, click here.

Note the sudden drop in gasoline demand the past few weeks, only to a show a surprising jump this past week. This is data for week ending 11/11/16, so it includes the wild finish to the Clinton-Trump presidential election on 11/8/16.

Midnight In Paris

Link here.

So many great scenes. Every time I watch it, I see something new........

Bakken 2.0: Twelve Permits Renewed; Six New NP Resources Permits -- November 17, 2016

Track high-intensity fracks here

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3864184183187

Two wells coming off confidential list Friday:
  • 27434, 2,738, HRC, Fort Berthold 148-95-23C-14-9H, Eagle Nest, Three Forks, 34 stages, 5.1 million lbs; t5/16; cum 5K over3 days;
  • 31403, 1,447, EOG, West Clark 117-0136H, Clarks Creek, middle Bakken, 36 stages, 27.65 million lbs, t5/16; cum 132K 9/16;
Six new permits:
  • Operators: NP Resources (4), Enerplus (2)
  • Fields: Ash Coulee (Billings), Eagle Nest (Dunn)
  • Comments:
Twelve permits renewed:
  • Slawson (5): five Submariner Federal permits in Mountrail County
  • Enerplus (4): a Round House, a Log House, a Huffy, and a Schwinn permit, all in Dunn County
  • Oasis (2): two Harbour permits in Williams County
  • Whiting: a Kostelecky permit in Stark County
Two producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 31309, 281, Wayzetta 9803019H, Parshall, t11/16; cum --
  • 31322, 1,432, EOG, Wayzetta 400-3019H, t11/16; cum -- ; TD, 16,412 feet; TVD, 9,713 feet; s7/4/15; cease drilling, 7/23/15; a fairly short 1280-acre lateral;

31403, see above, EOG, West Clark 117-0136H, Clarks Creek, middle Bakken, 36 stages, 27.65 million lbs, t5/16; cum 132K 9/16:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

31403, see above, EOG, West Clark 117-0136H, Clarks Creek:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

The Apple Page -- November 17, 2016


Later, 8:51 p.m. Central Time: I really get a kick out of these things. Microsoft and Apple are spending billions of dollars on really, really good R&D. In this case, again, Apple comes up with something so innovative it defies imagination. Touchscreen on the Surface was neither innovative nor ergonometrically sensible. Even our two-year-old granddaughter could have come up with the idea of a touchscreen, but not only does it not make sense, but no one likes smudges on their monitor. Again, Apple comes up with something so innovative, it really does defy imagination, the Touch Bar.

Yes, to some degree, it might be a gimmick, but once folks start getting used to it, like so may things with Apple, they will wonder how they ever got along without it.

Original Post
On Tuesday of this week, two days ago, Macrumors reported that some Apple Stores will have the new MacBook Pro with touch bar available in their stores to display and to purchase. On Wednesday, yesterday, I stopped by the Apple Store in Southlake, TX, and was told the MacBook with touch bar was available for purchase but would not be on display until today.

Today I stopped by the Apple Store to take a look. They were on display. They had three on display that I know of; I think they had six altogether. I talked at length with an Apple employee who I have gotten to know quite well. He is 76 years old, a former IBM employee, and then worked for Verizon, and now works as an Apple associate. He tells me he was once awarded $150,000 for a suggestion he made while working for IBM. He's not a dummy.

About two weeks ago I said to myself: the new MacBook Pro with touch bar is going to be the best selling laptop that Apple has ever sold.

Today after seeing the Macbook Pro with touch bar for the first time, I said to myself: the new MacBook Pro with touch bar is going to be the best selling laptop that Apple has ever sold.

This thing is incredible. Anyone complaining about it over at Macrumors has not actually played with it.

First, and most important: my biggest concern with the new MacBook Pro was the price. No more. It turns out that one can get one for a price that competes with the MacBook Air. If anything, Apple could have priced the lowest model for $100 more. There is a model for everyone's pocketbook. There. Got that out of the way. Apple did their homework. Price points are fine.

Second: if you like smudges on your monitor, buy a Microsoft Surface. If you don't like smudges on your monitor buy a Pro with touch bar. It is ergonomically crazy to have a touch screen on a laptop; Apple cleverly found the solution.

Third: esthetics. The "bar' is not so much a bar as a strip, a long, rectangular key. The "bar" blends in so well with the keyboard that when the associates pointed me to the computer, I thought they had sent me to the wrong area. I did not see the touch bar, it blended in so well with the keyboard.

Fourth: smudges. Again. Incredibly, and even the Apple folks I talked to, don't know how Apple did it, but the touch bar does not smudge. There is some type of coating or physical layer that precludes smudges. It's quite incredible. Or rather, magical.

Fifth: huge trackpad. Some folks thought it too big; that one's palm would always be resting on it. Not even an issue. It seems some folks must be staying up late at night to find something "bad" to say about the new Apple MacBook Pro.

I was there less than ten minutes. In that short period I saw folks walking out with their new MacBook Pro with touch bar.


Apple will be phasing out the MacBook Air. The MacBook Pro 13-inch with/without touch bar is the same size and weighs the same as the MacBook Air but actually has a slightly larger screen. If one is going to buy a new laptop, there is no reason to choose the Air over the Pro. So, the MacBook Air will simply not be refreshed; left to wither away.

This solves a huge problem for Apple. Steve Jobs knew about the problem and tried to prevent it but it was nearly impossible. The problem: too many choices. Folks in marketing know that if a customer has too many choices, they often make no choice and leave the story without a purchase.

Apple currently has four "devices": desktops, laptops, tablets, and smartphones.

Apple has just announced they are getting out of the monitor business. Since their desktops were their monitors and vice versa, getting out of the monitor business means they will be getting out of the desktop business. Businesses will solve the problem one way, but individuals will solve it another way. Individuals who still want a desktop will buy an LG monitor and connect it to their laptop. If they really, really have to have a traditional desktop keyboard, they will daisy chain it through their laptop, but I think we are well beyond that stage. I work for hours on my MacBook Air and the laptop keyboard is just fine.

So, going forward, Apple will be back to three "devices," making Steve Jobs happy: laptops, tablets, and smartphones.

Right now, there is an excess of choices among tablets and smart phones. I think Apple will solve the excess-of-choice problem for tablets, but not so sure about the smart phones. I don't have a smart phone and never plan to use a smart phone so I can't really comment on that.

US Begins Exports Of Natural Gas To OPEC Countries In The Mideast -- November 17, 2016

Forbes: reversing Middle East dependence: U.S. begins exports of shale gas to oil-rich UAE And Kuwait.

Fathomless ignorance:

The Wall -- November 17, 2016

The Trump presidency is going to be so much fun to watch.

But let's get this out of the way first: it won't be easy. Trump will be fighting the mainstream media, Senator Schumer, Representative Pelosi (?), Pocahontas, Representative Ryan, RINOs, and others. But every time there is a bit of bad news or an unforeseen obstacle remember this, it could be worse:
  • we could be listening to another Barack Obama speech
  • we could be listening to Hillary talking with Huma
  • we could be listening to Hillary talking about Chelsea
  • we could be listening to Hillary about free college tuition
These are some random thoughts on why the Trump presidency will be fun to watch and how it will be different from past administrations.

After I completed the list, I ran through it again. I wonder if I should not have reversed the order?

First: most importantly, this is the ultimate military-industrial complex. We have a multi-billion-dollar business man melding with a special ops 3-star general officer. And in the outer office: Stephen Bannon. Quick: name the current National Security Advisor. Yes, that's what I thought. Now, when was the last time the president took a national security briefing in his private residence? Yes, that's what I thought to.

Second: I think the calendar changes. Politicians "work" between late Monday afternoon and early Friday morning. The weekly news "dump" occurs after 4:00 p.m. ET Friday afternoons. We're going to start seeing headlines about things other than the weather on the weekend.

Third: he loves to travel. Expect to see a lot more excursions to industrial America. The Bakken will be a better photo-op than the Permian, but either one is fine.

Fourth: Washington is not HIS town. He will stay in Washington when it's necessary but he will get out of town as much as possible.

Fifth: expect much more interesting press conferences, and more frequent press conferences. Trump, like many New Yorkers, love to talk.

Sixth: expect more family dinners in downtown NYC -- with politicians from both sides of the aisle.

Seventh: Jared Kushner. Family wealth, but, at age 26, he made the most expensive single-building property purchase in US history.

Eighth: Melanie Trump. Melania peaks six languages fluently: Serbo-Croatian, English, French, Italian, German, and her native Slovene. She will be a great "aide-de-camp" when he travels to Europe. She is a private person, but there is a possibility that Melania will be the "second Jackie." If not the "second Jackie," she will certainly be compared to Jackie. Melania's parents live in the US; they may move to the White House. Michelle's children have grandparents in the White House. Melanie comes off as a very compelling personality.

Ninth: commitment; he says he won't take vacations. That tells me he has a way of combining work with leisure. Most high-level military officers never take leave unless ordered to do so by their commander; the current president himself has said he is "lazy" by nature.

Tenth: energy; his three adult children. If you don't believe me, watch the 60 Minute video. The mainstream media will eventually fall "in love" with these children, if they already haven't. The comments by Don, Jr., were quite wonderfully incredible. Ivanka comes across as smarter than Leslie Stahl; I think Leslie Stahl was schooled by a young woman half her age.

Eleventh: one's word is one's honor, something we haven't seen in quite some time; in the 60 Minutes interview, Trump mentioned that he was "disappointed" that Jeb Bush signed a pledge and then did not honor it. I've mentioned that more than once. That told me all I need to know about the Bushes.

The Wall

I thought I had already posted this but can't find it. At risk of repeating myself, "the wall" as President-elect Trump uses it:
  • it's a physical structure
  • it's a public-private political partnership
  • it's a metonym for US border security
President-elect outlined the three areas in that 60 Minutes interview which he will focus on when he comes into office.

With Leslie Stahl, the first issue of substance:
  • the "physical wall"; barely backed down from this; only concession -- some places may be a "fence" (you know, it's interesting: the DFW is better protected than the US border along Mexico; there's something wrong with that)
  • deport criminal illegal aliens, two to three million.
  • secure the border.
With Paul Ryan, the top three issues:
  • health care
  • immigration
  • tax reform -- simplify and lower 
Although he did not say it, "jobs" were also among the top three or four areas in which he will focus.

As you start to think about "the wall," remember that joke about two walkers approaching the woods, with one of the two walkers stopping to put on tennis shoes; when asked why, because he certainly can't outrun a bear, he said, "I don't have to outrun the bear; I only have to outrun you."

That holds true for "the wall." Texas will take the lead, partly because the "real' problem is in Texas. Once the word gets out that Texas is taking the lead on border security, the problem will move west to New Mexico, Arizona, and California. That will be fun to watch. [Update, one day later, November 18, 2016: it is now being reported that Central American immigrants are now pouring through Yuma, New Mexico.]

I think most folks think the Feds will start building the wall from one border of Texas to the other end. Nope. It will simply start with bringing in Federal and State agencies and bulking up the areas where the traffic is. Once those areas are secure, the agencies will move to the new areas of illegal border crossings.  Once the Federal and State agencies have have made the area "safe" in which to work, the blue-collar workers will come into start building a physical wall to make the job easier border "police." Technology has come a long way: think drones.

The "wall" will be built on private and state land. The Feds won't have any laws that preclude fences or walls from being put up on private and state land.

Enough for now.

Truck Reliever Bypass Northeast Of Williston Still Under Discussion -- November 17, 2016

Link here.
Although the project has been narrowed down to two possible routes, both of which connect U.S. Highway 2 to Highway 1804 by cutting through Stony Creek and Pherrin townships, Williams County and Williston officials have not settled on a preferred corridor.
OPEC Talks

Pricing: Being tweeted right now -- Saudi Arabia oil minister is suggesting a 32.5 million bopd  ceiling -- this is quite bullish if really that's where talks are heading -- Javier Blas, retweeted by John Kemp.

So, what's the "TV crawler" saying? Up slightly; up 0.33% to $46.25 (WTI). 

The Two Americas of 2016

Link here

EOG Reports High-Volume Proppant Well -- 21 Million Lbs; "1.5 Section" -- 960-Acre Drilling Unit -- November 17, 2016

I track high-intensity fracks here

Note, 21 million lbs of sand, in a lateral that was not a "two-section lateral":
  • 31248, 1,272, EOG, West Clark 104-0136H, Clarks Creek, middle Bakken, 36 stages, 21 million lbs, t5/16; cum 86K 9/16; drilling unit: 960 acres; TVD around 10,600 feet; TD, 18,185 feet; total lateral, 7,338 feet; target total, 7,338 feet (100%); KOP December 4, 2015; cease drilling December 8, 2015; from surface, well was sited in southwest corner of section 1-151-95; proceeded northeast and then northnortheast under section 1-151-95, ending just short of the halfway mark in section 36-151-95W (according to diagram on page 29 -- but it obviously ended in section 36-152-95).
  • 21,029,167 lbs; 36 stages; 7,338 feet: 584K lbs/stage; 2,866 lbs/foot

NDIC File No: 31248     API No: 33-053-06955-00-00     CTB No: 231247
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 5/17/2016     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: LOT4 1-151-95     Footages: 250 FSL 835 FWL     Latitude: 47.920333     Longitude: -102.786881
Current Operator: EOG RESOURCES, INC.
Current Well Name: WEST CLARK 104-0136H
Elevation(s): 2204 KB   2174 GR   2177 GL     Total Depth: 18185     Field: CLARKS CREEK
Spud Date(s):  11/8/2015
Casing String(s): 9.625" 1815'   7" 10844'  
Completion Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 11254-18092     Comp: 5/17/2016     Status: F     Date: 5/18/2016     Spacing: ICO
Cumulative Production Data
   Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 86051     Cum MCF Gas: 228034     Cum Water: 151593
Production Test Data
   IP Test Date: 5/18/2016     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 1272     IP MCF: 2832     IP Water: 2566
Monthly Production Data
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare


Investing Opportunity -- Nothing About The Bakken -- Following The Tea Leaves -- Novmeber 17, 2016


November 17, 2016: new processing center in El Paso, TX. Wow.  This is in the waning days of the Obama administration; just wait until Trump moves into office.

Original Post
This is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, relationship, or personal decisions based on what you read here. If this is important to you, go to the source.

Some days ago I mention Operation Thor and specifically alluded to private prisoners in Texas.

I don't follow this sector and I can't recall the publicly-traded companies that were affected when Obama's DOJ announced that the US would end contracts with private prisons, most of which were located in Texas.

Just out of curiosity, Geo Group, Inc, which operates private prisons in Texas:

Ah, Yes, Reality Sets In

China threatens Apple; could ban iPhone. Apple responds, apparently. T+9. Over at Asian Review: Apple could manufacture iPhones in the US

Secondhand Time: The Last of the Soviets
Svetlana Alexievich
c. 2016, translated

Author: winner of Nobel Prize in Literature.

Perhaps something that followers of Bernie Sanders may want to read, after they put down their coloring books and Play-Doh.  Note that in the paragraph below, early in her book, she uses the word "socialism" and not "communism" or "totalitarianism" or "Stalinism."

Homo sovieticus:
"We're easy to spot! People who've come out of socialism are both like and unlike the rest of  humanity -- we have our own lexicon, our own conceptions of good and evil, our heroes, our martyrs. We have a special relationship with death.

The stories peole tell me are full of jarring terms: "shoot," "execute," "liquidate," "eliminate," or typically Soviet varieties of disappearance such as "arrest," "ten years without the right of correspondence," and "emigration."

How much can we value human life when we know that not long ago people had died by the millions? We're full of hatred ad superstitions. All of us come from the land of the gulag and harrowing war. Collectivization, dekulakization, and mass deportations of various nationalities ...
Kulaks: "better-off peasants"; from 1929 to 1932; Stalin-initiated campaign to arrest, deport, execute "better-off peasants" and their families for the purposes of seizing their property and incorporating it into collective enterprises.

Tesoro To Buy Western Refining -- November 17, 2016

Data points from The Wall Street Journal:
  • $4.1 billion
  • Western has refineries in: TX, NM, MN (St Paul, see below)
  • Tesoro has refineries in: CA, WA, AK, UT, ND
  • $37.30/share in cash; a 22% premium over Western's closing price Wednesday
Also here, in bizjournals:
  • Tesoro will have a much larger presence in Minnesota
  • St Paul Park oil refinery and affiliated chain of SuperAmerica gas station stores
Firefox Will Allow iPhone Users to Block "Ad-Trackers"

Huge. Over at The Wall Street Journal.

Firefox Focus: a no-tracking browser.

Personally, I enjoy "ad-tracking" browsers. What I would like:
  • ads that take up little bandwidth (load quickly)
  • don't slow down the "parent site" being accessed
  • more targeted ads
  • no audio without permission
  • more free stuff through ads that find me

The Terror Dream: Fear and Fantasy in Post-9/11 America
Susan Faludi
c. 2007
DDS: 306.2
From pages 271 - 272:
In part to counteract such troubling reality (frontier white women willingly marrying native Americans), rape in Indian captivity would become a fixation by the mid-nineteenth century in newspapers and periodicals, literature, and art. 
The fear was not a response to a clear and present danger: Indian rape of captives was actually fairly uncommon, as it had been since the earliest abductions. 
Rowlandson was one of many captives to remark on its absence: "Not one of them ever offered the least abuse of unchastity to me, in word or action." She attributed the restraint to God, but numerous North American tribes subscribed to an ethic of strict chastity while on the warpath and an incest taboo afterward. While this was particularly true of the eastern tribes (some of whom regarded rape as a capital offense), North American Indians in general took captives, particularly younger ones, to adopt them, not to turn them into love slaves; the point was to replace family members lost in battle. (The Europeans introduced, of course, a second motive: money. Taking captives to collect a ransom was the byproduct of the colonial era.)

When historian Susan Armitage searched first-person accounts by nineteenth-century pioneer women in the Far West, she found no reports of rape, or even expressions of fear of rape. Nor have frontier scholars found evidence of coerced marriage.

"Not only were younger captives and consenting adults under no compulsion, either actual or perceived, to marry, but they enjoyed as wide a latitude of choice as any Indian," James Axtell wrote in The European and the Indian. In fact, "so free from compulsio were the captives that several married fellow white prisoners."

US Economy As Obama Administration Winds Down -- November 17, 2016

US housing starts: surge to 9-year high in October, 2016.
  • groundbreaking jumped 25% 
  • seasonally adjusted annual pace of 1.32 million units
  • highest level since August, 2007
  • biggest increase since 1982
  • starts increased in all four region of the US
  • single-family home building jumped almost 11%
Jobless claims: sink to 43-year low as labor market tightens.
  • plummeted an astounding 19,000 to 235,000
  • lowest level since November, 1973
  • forecast: jobless claims rising to 257,000
  • net swing from forecast (+ 3,000) to actual (- 19,000) = 22,000
    • when swings are this huge, there is a usually a story -- which is seldom reported 
    • if reported, it generally reflects the view of the author, not any real analysis
  • hard to believe the analysts would be that far off
  • four-week average fell 6,500 to 253,500
Inflation? The Fed, and US savers looking for a bit of good news.
  • consumer prices in US increase for third consecutive month
  • inflation moving closer to the Federal Reserve's goal
  • CPI climbed 0.4% in October; gained 0.3% in September
  • the numbers exclude what most Americans spend most on, in any given week: food and gasoline 
Maine: tight labor market -- going after immigrants, refugees.
  • Maine: oldest median age in the nation
  • one of only two states where deaths outnumbered births between July, 2014, and July, 2015 (the other state: West Virginia)
  • by 2024: Maine could see a net decrease of 28% of people between 35 and 64 -- and a loss of one electoral vote (down to the minimum of 3)
US Presidents Not Subject To Conflict-Of-Interest Laws

Heard on MSNBC. Not fact-checked.

Blind trusts not required.

Liquidation of family businesses not required.

Monet Painting Sells For Record Amount

Data points from The Wall Street Journal:
  • "Grainstack"
  • $81.4 million
  • expected to sell for $45 million
  • seller: "famed" Denver stock picker Tom Marsico bought it fourteen years ago, in 2002, for roughly $12 million
  • five collectors bid for it
  • 1891 canvas; anonymous bidder over the telephone
  • previous Monet record: $80.4 million; "Water Lily Pond," eight years ago

Back To The Permian -- November 17, 2016

This morning on MSNBC Morning Joe it was mentioned that the USGS analysis of the Permian showed:
  • 20 billion bbls
  • largest continuous reservoir USGS has ever surveyed
  • 3x the size of the Bakken
I took another look at the first note at the blog regarding this new survey. At the post, the Permian:
  • an estimated and previously unaccounted for 20 billion bbls crude oil
  • 16 trillion cubic feet of natural gas; and, 
  • 1.6 billion bbls of natural gas 
Let's go back to some earlier posts on the size of the Bakken:
Comments derived from those links regarding the Bakken follow.

A trillion-bbl reservoir:
  • the trillion-bbl reservoir first posited by CLR, was eventually pulled back to the Leigh Price number, 500 billion bbls
  • a 3% primary recovery rate of 500 billion bbls = 15 billion bbls
  • a 10% primary recovery rate of 500 billion bbls = 50 billion bbls
Bentek and EIA, Bakken production 2040:
  • 1.5 million bopd average through 2030; 2016 - 2030 =  15 yrs x 365 days/yr x 1.5 million bopd = 8,200 million bbls = 8 billion bbls (sub-total)
  • 2.0 million bopd average, 2031 - 2040) = 10 years x 365 days/yr x 2 million bopd = 7,300 million bopd = 7 billion bbls (sub-total)
  • 1 million bopd average after 2040 through unknown number of years
  • total estimate based on Bentek, EIA presentations in the past: 8 billion + 7 billion + x billion = at least 15 billion bbls
  • everyone pretty much agrees 3% recovery rate is a very, very conservative recovery rate for the Bakken; Whiting has suggested as much as 8%
USGS Permian and Bakken surveys
  • for the Bakken-Three Forks: top-line estimate -- 11.4 billion bbls
  • I've not see USGS's top-line estimate for the Permian; the headline number is 20 billion bbls
  • 20 billion bbls is not 3x the size of the Bakken
  • but that's about right: USGS mid-range estimate for the Bakken: 7.4 billion bbls; for the Permian: 20 billion bbls
This graphic was posted by the EIA earlier this year, August 22, 2016:

Note the amount of dark blue (Bakken) vs the Wolfcamp (blue).

In light of the new USGS survey of the Permian the graph will have to be re-done (I would suppose).

North Dakota County Votes Down Wind Farm; Visual Pollution Near "The Park" -- November 17, 2016

Hoping Those Tipis-Tepees-Teepees Have Central Heat

Early? Huge blizzard, major snowstorms predicted for upper midwest from Rocky Mountains east through Minneapolis to entire state of Minnesota. The weather pattern appears to "miss" North Dakota except the far southeast corner. Blizzard warnings are for northeastern South Dakota / southwestern Minnesota. It's going to be close but the big question is whether the Standing Rock Reservation will be hit.

Overstayed their welcome: speaking of the Standing Rock Reservation -- the Standing Rock Sioux Tribal Council voted unanimously to ask Red Warrior Camp to leave. Something tells me if the blizzard hits, "they" will have no trouble shutting down the camp. Unless you've been there, you have no idea how remote, how dangerous this area can be in the winter. And, then, of course, those pesky grizzly bears

Paid protestors: the ad has now been removed, but Craigslist had an ad offering payment to folks who would assemble at West Acres Mall in Fargo to shut it down in support of DAPL.

Speaking of Cold Weather

From AccuWeather:
Temperatures in Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Morgantown, West Virginia, and Buffalo, New York, will plummet from the 60s and 70s on Friday to the upper 20s and lower 30s during Saturday night. Then, temperatures may recover by only 10 degrees or less on Sunday.
Dispatchable energy from solar farm and wind farms will be needed to keep all those homes cozy. Oh, that's right. Solar and wind energy is not dispatchable.

Proposed Wind Project Shut Down

From The Dickinson Press, data points:
  • Charlie Creek Wind Farm; Orion Renewable Energy Group; would have been their first wind farm in ND; had been working on the project for two years; 25,000 acres
  • Billing County, southwest North Dakota; near ND Highway 95
  • would have begun three miles north of Fairfield and would have extended to one mile south of ND Highway 200
  • 114-turbine, 383-megawatt wind farm proposal
  • sounds like only the surface owners wanted; otherwise no one else wanted it
  • too near Theodore Roosevelt National Park; "visual pollution" issue; park visitors would be able to see 75 wind turbines
  • three commissioners; one recused himself due to conflict of interest; other two voted down the project
  • huge, huge amount of mailbox money involved: from this site, $5,000 to $8,000/turbine
Back to the Bakken

North Dakota September, 2016, crude oil production: lowest since February, 2014 The state issued 82 drilling permits in October, a large increase from 63 in September, although down from 99 in August.

Active rigs:

Active Rigs3864184183187

RBN Energy: Texas natural gas pipeline capacity, flows, and basis -- the fretboard model.
The natural gas pipeline grid in Texas is undergoing a historic transformation as interstate pipelines designed to move gas north and east from the Gulf Coast region are being reversed, enabling Marcellus/Utica gas to flow to LNG export markets in Louisiana and Texas, and via Texas for pipeline export to Mexico.  
With a history of oil and gas production going back more than 100 years, no region in the world has a more convoluted network of pipelines than Texas.  The state can be viewed as a dense “spaghetti bowl” of interconnected interstate and intrastate systems that defies traditional gas market analysis, in part because intrastate pipelines do not post receipts and deliveries on their systems as required by federally regulated interstate pipelines. 
However, it is possible to assess the dynamics of regional flows and capacities by examining the morass of flow data available from interstate pipelines in the region that connect to the intrastates. To help make sense of this data, RBN has developed a simplified model that facilitates an understanding of Texas natural gas flows and capacities that we call (unsurprisingly since it’s RBN) the Fretboard Model because the region’s interstate pipelines and capacity constraints look (with just a bit of artistic license) very much like a guitar fretboard.  In today’s blog, we introduce this model.
The Political Page

It is absolutely incredible how fast MSNBC has come with regard to the new Trump presidency. Mika did clearly say Morning Joe  is of the Democratic Party. Elizabeth Warren came under a significant amount of criticism which really surprised me. Bernstein said world leaders respected Obama but no one feared him. And so on, and so on. Joe, himself, was absent from the set. The first hour was as good as anything I've heard anywhere (I don't watch Fox News at all and only visit the website if a link sends me there).

Steve Bannon's assessment -- read on Morning Joe -- sounded like something Bernie Sanders could have written. Amazing.

Payback is hell. Connect the dots. Jared Kushner. Chris Christie. Elevator: Jared is Trump's son-in-law. Jared's father prosecuted for fraud. Prosecutor: Chris Christie. Chris Christie out of Trump's inner circle.

And their point would be? A crawler at MSNBC: US ranks dead last among the ten wealthiest nations when it comes to health care despite spending the most per capita on health care. Let's see? ObamaCare was passed in 2010. Six years ago. 


From Investopedia, data points:
  • Musk Melon wants to deploy 4,425 satellites 
  • to provide high-speed, global internet coverage
  • has asked the Obama administration for permission to move forward