Sunday, September 24, 2017

Rambling -- September 24, 2017


September 25, 2017: see comments --
Kudos to Alejandro Villanueva, who emerged as yesterday's towering hero.

He was instructed by his team before the game not to participate in the national anthem:

But he defied team management and participated anyway.

Villanueva, an ex-Ranger and Bronze Medal recipient, is truly an American hero, in every aspect of the word.
September 24, 2017: I've never had a smart phone. I still have a Samsung clam shell -- it must be at least ten years old. I have had to buy a new battery for it -- some years ago -- that's how old it is. But I've been looking at the Apple iPhones and it's hard not to buy a an iPhone. Several models to choose from. For newbies: iPhone SE; 6s; iPhone 7 and 7 Plus; iPhone 8 and 8 Plus; and, then the iPhone X. There is clearly a model for everyone. On a monthly plan, they are practically giving the SE away for free. It appears that even with the SE (IOS 11) it will work with the new Apple Watch. All other models definitely work with the new Apple Watch. 

So, we will see.

Original Post

I'm in on of those moods, off my meds again. I don't know where this will take me but it's probably best for those who follow the Bakken, and come here for Bakken updates, ignore this post.

Only The Lonely, Chris Isaak

I usually delete these posts after a couple of days.

I pick up my MacBook Pro and it feels like a brick after using my MacBook Air. The latter I use 99% of the time. I seldom use my MacBook Pro any more -- it's a long story -- but lately, I've been using it a bit more. But still, compared to the MacBook Air it seems to weigh a ton.

I'm thinking of buying another MacBook Air before Tim Cook obsoletes it. The current MacBook Air still has has the ports and the headphone jack and the SanDisk slot but in another year or two these ports and slots will be removed from the MacBook Air, or more likely, Apple will simply discontinue the MacBook Air computer. I still think the MacBook Air gives one the best bang for the buck.

When I talk about "best bang for the buck" with Apple associates they disagree; most of them say it is the MacBook Pro. I will never buy another MacBook Pro as long as it has moving parts (the hard drive). The MacBook Air is all solid state; no moving parts except the keyboard and the track pad. 

Wow, how did I get on this tangent?

I say all that because ...

.. I'm going to move on. Maybe I'll talk about Apple later this weekend.

For investors: thank Paul Rand and John McCain for scuttling the ObamaCare Lite. Rand and McCain insure that the big insurance companies will be the big winners, and for investors, that's good news.

Look at New Hampshire -- health care insurance premiums will increase 40%; deductibles and co-pays will pretty much minimize any liabilities for the insurance companies. Increasing their premiums 40% and minimizing any chance they will actually have any liabilities ... what's not to like?

When you turn 65 years old you turn invisible. Tonight I drove 45 minutes to the other side of Texas to get Olivia to a birthday party. I escorted her up to the house and because I had Sophia with me we were invited in for a few minutes, but not a person noted I was there. It's a wonderful phenomenon. I didn't have to make small talk. I'm a chauffeur. It's wonderful.

Taxi, Harry Chapin

Anyway, Sunday night. Looking forward to the British comedies on PBS. Normally I would watch Sunday Night Football but not interested tonight. I have no desire to watch multi-millionaire athletes dis the national anthem.

I can't believe what a good mood I'm in. I see Dow 30 futures are up nicely tonight. I'm watching Call Northside 777 starring Jimmy Steward on TCM. I love his house (or is it an apartment). It looks a lot like our apartment. Small. Everything within arms' reach.

I'm also in the process of "cleaning up" my computer. Bear with me. I will be off the net for a few hours while "uninstalling" the last 8 years.

Boomtown's Taxable Sales Surge 30%; Locals Did Not See A Bust -- From The Williston Wire -- September 24, 2017

Williston Economic Development received a Gold Excellence in Economic Developent Award for its Open for Business Media Folder, a project in the category of Video/Multimedia Promotion from the International Economic Development Council. The honor was presented an awards ceremony in Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

Williston, Williams County 2Q17 taxable purchases jump 30 percent.
Sales taxes don't represent the total economic picture, but are a good indicator since they track the physical movement of goods and services. North Dakota figures for the second quarter show that Williston's economy has turned a corner - a scoop for the people who sat in on the Williston Area Chamber of Commerce's Eggs and Issues with State Tax Commissioner Ryan Rauschenberger on Friday morning.
"This is not public yet," Rauschenberger told the gathering. "We were working on a statewide report for the second quarter of 2017 and we pulled out some Williston specific data just for this presentation."
The data shows a jump of $83 million in sales taxes for the second quarter year over year. Sales taxes in the second quarter 2016 were $263.7 million and $347.3 million for the same period this year.
Williston finds calm after frantic years. Locals disagree with those who say the Bakken went from boom to bust. It went from boom to over-drive, but steady. From The Grand Forks Herald:
Like many who now live in Williston, Krause is a transplant, brought to northwest North Dakota by the promise of lucrative work in a hot economic landscape.
Today, some two years after plunging oil prices slowed the frantic pace of life in the state's Oil Patch, she's part of a new class of business owners taking root in what many in town describe as a city transformed, a place that's now striving to capitalize on mineral wealth while fostering a more family-friendly community.

Krause, who is originally from Milwaukee, never worked in the oil field, but she did spend two of her five years in town as a journalist at the local newspaper, the Williston Herald. She says that work introduced her to people from other parts of the country who had flocked to the patch seeking new prospects much as she had.

Over time, she says she "felt I started to embody all those hopes and dreams of what brought them here, to bring them to stay, and what they wanted it to be."

The idea for an art studio and store gradually took root, led her to approach the Williston Economic Development office and resulted in the store she operates today.

Dreams aside, she cites continually rising local birth rates and public school enrollments as among the tangible factors that encouraged her to open. Looking back, she doesn't think her shop would have been viable in Williston as it was at her arrival during the boom.

"I guess back then it was a large male population that worked an obscene amount of hours," Krause said. "Their time off would have been spent sleeping or maybe at a bar, so I don't think this place would have survived, not until the population switched out from them to the workers who decided to stay and bring up their families and their wives."

The booms of a cyclical commodity such as oil and gas are typically followed by a corresponding bust. That term is used to describe current conditions in the Patch by those elsewhere in North Dakota, including on the peripheries of the main producing region. In Williston, though, the label is subject to debate.

"I can't say it was a bust, not by any means," said Kim Wenko, the owner of clothing boutique Mode located a few doors down from Krause's shop.

Wenko has lived in Williston for about nine years, and admits readily that her knowledge of the place is influenced in part by her marriage to the city's head of economic development, Shawn Wenko, as well as by the fact that her partner in the store is a member of the City Commission. Still, her assessment of overall economic conditions is largely driven by her personal experience in a town she says has grown dramatically over her near-decade of residency.

"When I moved here, you could eat out at Applebee's," and that was about it, Wenko says. "Now there's like 15 new restaurants" and counting.

Tarren Rehak, a lifelong Willistonian and a local schoolteacher, was shopping in the boutique that day—and, coincidentally, had worked at that Applebee's when she was younger. She quickly backed up Wenko's description of the gains made during the boom and, thus far, how much of them had stuck.

"I still have 29 kindergarteners. It's the biggest class size I've ever had," Rehak said.

Making Pancakes With Sophia -- September 24, 2017


Hand mixing:

Using a mixer:

Mashing a banana for Arianna's pancakes:

Adding chocolate chips for Olivia's pancakes:

Pancakes on the griddle:

Taking pancakes off the griddle:

All the pancakes, chocolate chip for Olivia; banana for Arianna:

The Political Page, T+247 -- September 24, 2017

We will get to politics in a minute but first a word about Texas high school football -- where coaches don't take a knee when the national anthem is played.  From The Star-Telegra Northeast: it pays to be in Texas, home of the $98,668 high school football coach. Some data points:
  • 2017 Texas high school football season opener -- first time that the University Interscholastic League (UIL) allowed live broadcasts of Friday night games
  • Lake Travis High School: sixth state title in 2016; in 2011 they became the first team in history of Texas high school football to win five consecutive state championships
  • currently, the coach: Hank Carter
  • Carter is the highest-paid high school football coach in Texas: annual salary of $155,156
  • $30,000 more than the principal at the same school; triple the average salary of the school's teachers
  • median household income in his district: $103,000; million-dollar homes dot the shores of Lake Travis
  • Texas has no limit on what Texas high school football coaches can be paid, as long as school boards vote to approve contracts set by administrators
  • Katy, TX: home of Morton Ranch High School and home of a new $72 million stadium; Katy Tigers are eight-time state champions; the coach is paid $133,102.
  • statewide, the average for football coaches: $98,668
  • statewide, the average teacher's salary: $55,221
  • statewide, the average salary for principals in the large schools: $117,744
  • DFW-area suburbs: some of the highest paid coaches in the state, $106,619
  • down the road from us, Bedford: $110,000
  • reason: supply and demand
  • at a typical school, there are 40,000 applications from those who want to become a 3rd-grade teacher
  • hard to find a winning coach
  • most coaches wear two hats: the other -- athletic director
The Political Page 

Takeaway: after seeing the scenes from NFL's opening national anthems today -- for the players, coaches, and owners, "it's all about me. Screw the veterans." One brave Pittsburgh Steeler stood for the veterans.

But a sad day for America! Owners, coaches, multi-millionaire athletes who got a free ride and a college scholarship all agree that the national anthem is not worth respecting. And millionaire owners taking the side of those who disrespect the national anthem. It's important to remember, President Trump did not start this. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Sunday night football. I don't recall ever purposefully turning to another channel when the SNF opening came on, but tonight I did. I'll catch the game later on, but not interested in the opening segment.

Hardball. Undermining ObamaCaare. Death by a thousand cuts. Administration will take down on some hours during enrollment period. LOL. Administration says the Obamacare enrollment site will be down for "maintenance." LOL.
The Trump administration plans to shut down, a website consumers use to sign up for the Affordable Care Act, for 12 hours on nearly every Sunday of the coming ACA enrollment season.
The outages, which the administration says are for maintenance, will occur from midnight through noon on every Sunday other than Dec. 10. This year’s enrollment season, which the administration has shortened to half the length of previous years, will run from Nov. 1 through Dec. 15 for states that use the federal marketplace.
As usual, the headline "exaggerates" things. Give me a break. Midnight to noon? On Sundays? That's it? And The WSJ is alarmed! But if ObamaCare enrollments are down, we now know that The WSJ will blame a) the Russians; and, b) Trump for taking down the ObamaCare enrollment website. Wow.

Hardball. Residential solar energy. Death by a thousand cuts. Headline over at The WSJ: Trade decision roils U.S. solar industry. American panel makers see a godsend; panel sellers and installers fear higher prices for consumers.

Hardball. Amazon takes over the world. The comments, as usual, are the best part of the "article." This one paragraph from the article told me all I needed to know about this essay:
At New York University’s business school, where I teach, I have for years kept a close watch on which firms are winning the competition for the most talented students. A decade ago, the top recruiter was American Express , with investment banks vying for second position. Now the clear winner is Amazon: 12 students from my most recent class have opted for a life of rain and overrated coffee in the Pacific Northwest.
Opted for a life of rain and overrated coffee in the Pacific Northwest? Or NYC? LOL.

Annual precipitation (google search):
  • NYC: 45 inches
  • Seattle: 37.49 inches
NYU professor needs to do some basic fact checking when writing his essays. But yes, there are significantly more sunny days in NYC than in Seattle (224 vs 152).

Oasis To Report Some Great Forland Wells; Newfield To Report Some Great Malm Wells This Coming Week -- September 24, 2017

Note for newbies: the monthly production of the Forland wells and the Malm wells are absolutely incredible. If any one of these wells had this kind of initial production it would be noteworthy, but the consistency is the bigger story. These wells will go on producing for the next 30 years, with work overs, mini-fracks, re-fracks.

Monday,  October 2, 2017
33337, conf, BR, Dodge 2A TFH, Dimmick Lake, no production data,

Sunday, October 1, 2017
33182, see below, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Ford 21-16-159N-100W, Blue Ridge, producing,
32245, see below, Oasis, Forland 5098 13-4 7B, 

Saturday, September 30, 2017
32246, see below, Oasis, Forland 5098 13-4 8T, Siverston, producing,  

Friday, September 29, 2017
  • 32247, 1,270, Oasis, Forland 5098 13-4 9B, Siverston, 50 stages, 10.1 million lbs, t4/17; cum 127K 7/17;
Thursday, September 28, 2017
  • 33143, SI/NC, BR, Croff 22A MBH, Croff, no production data,
  • 32255, 1,262, Oasis, Forland 5198 44-35 12B,  Siverston, 50 stages, 4 million lbs, small/large/ceramics, t4/17; cum 133K 7/17;
  • 31870, SI/NC, Newfield, Malm 149-98-11-2-6H, Pembroke, 27K over 17 days;
Wednesday, September 27, 2017
  • 33420, SI/NC, Newfield, Malm 149-98-14-23-5H, Pembroke, 26K over 19 days;
  • 33144, SI/NC, BR, Mathistad 22A MBH, Croff, no production data,
  • 31869, 2,250, Newfield, Malm 149-98-11-2-7HLW,  Pembroke, 62 stages, 7.2 million lbs, t7/17; cum 16K over 8 days;
  • 30724, 634, NP Resources, Beaver Creek State 41-36-2PH, Roosevelt, Three Forks, 35 stages; 5.3 million lbs; some ceramic; t4/17; cum 50K 7/17;

Tuesday, September 26, 2017
  • 33145, SI/NC, BR, Croff 22B UTFH, 
  • 32244, 781, Oasis, Forland 5198 41-33 6T, Siverston, Three Forks, 50 stages, 4 million lbs, t3/17; cum 102K 7/17;
  • 31871, A, Newfield, Malm 149-98-14-23-4H, Pembroke, t -- ; cum 21K over 19 days; exposure to target -- 58.1% in 15' target zone; 5.3% in middle Bakken D facies; 36.5% in middle Bakken B facies;
Monday, September 25, 2017
  • 33146, SI/NC, BR, Mathistad 22B UTHF, Cross, no production data,
  • 32254, 1,320, Oasis, Forland 5198 44-33 11T, Siverston, Three Forks, 50 stages, 4 million lbs; large/small/ceramic, t4/17; cum 97K 7/17;
  • 32243, 852, Oasis, Forland 5198 41-33 5B, Siverston, 50 stages; 4 million lbs, large/small/ceramic; t3/17; cum 101K 7/17;
Sunday, September 24, 2017
  • 33326,, SI/NC, MRO, Spring 21-15TFH, Spring, no production data, 
  • 33147, SI/NC, BR, Croff 22C MBH, Croff, no production data,
Saturday, September 23, 2017
  • 33325, SI/NC, MRO, Chapman 31-15H, Bailey, no production data,

33182, see above, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Ford 21-16-159N-100W, Blue Ridge:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

 32246, see above, Oasis, Forland 5098 13-4 8T, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

32247, see above, Oasis, Forland 5098 13-4 9B, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

32255, see above, Oasis, Forland 5198 44-35 12B,  Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

31870, see above, Newfield, Malm 149-98-11-2-6H, Pembroke:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

 33420, see above, Newfield, Malm 149-98-14-23-5H, Pembroke:

ateOil RunsMCF Sold

 31869, see above, Newfield, Malm 149-98-11-2-7HLW,  Pembroke:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

30724, see above, NP Resources, Beaver Creek State 41-36-2PH, Roosevelt:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

 32244, see above, Oasis, Forland 5198 41-33 6T, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

31871, see above, Newfield, Malm 149-98-14-23-4H, Pembroke:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

32254, see above, Oasis, Forland 5198 44-33 11T, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

32243, see above, Oasis, Forland 5198 41-33 5B, Siverston:

DateOil RunsMCF Sold

EIA Overestimating US Crude Oil Production Growth -- Harold Hamm -- Bloomberg Reports -- September 24, 2017

I think this is most fascinating, Harold Hamm's thoughts on EIA projections. See this post for background. Today, Bloomberg posted a longer article following Hamm's comments.

Hamm is arguing that the EIA is overestimating US oil production growth this year. And that once the market recognizes the US forecasting error, Hamm says, crude prices could rise to $60 a barrel from $50 now.

According to Bloomberg that is good news for OPEC: that group is targeting a figure close to $60.

Again, no one is providing any real time frame: $60 by December, 2017? By March, 2018? By December, 2018?

From the article:
OPEC cuts are doing the job intended, shale isn't responding, and OPEC and friends may finally be reaping the rewards from nine months of impressive compliance with the output deals they agreed late last year.
"Nine months of impressive compliance." LOL. 

And OPEC is hoping for $60.

Back to the article:
How did U.S. government forecasters get it so wrong? They failed to recognize that U.S. shale producers were finally starting to focus on return on investment, rather than growth at any cost, Hamm said. When oil prices fell with the recovery in Nigerian and Libyan production during the second quarter, shale operators cut capital expenditure and output started to fall.
Bakken production:
  • July, 2017: 1,047,526 bopd
  • June, 2017: 1,032,873 bopd (second quarter)
  • May, 2017: 1,040,131 bopd  (second quarter)
  • April, 2017: 1,050,630 bopd (second quarter)
  • March, 2017: 1,025,638 bopd
  • February, 2017: 1,034,248 bopd
  • January, 2017: 981,380 bopd
  • December, 2016: 942,322 bopd
  • November, 2016: 1,034,484
I don't have Permian, Eagle Ford, or SCOOP/STACK production, but it's my understanding that the Permian has actually done better than the Bakken during this past year. I don't know about the Eagle Ford or SCOOP/STACK.

But there certainly is no indication that Bakken production "fell when oil prices fell with the recovery in Nigerian and Libyan production during the second quarter."

Production in the Bakken:
  • 1st quarter Bakken production: a low of 981,380 bopd
  • 2nd quarter Bakken production: a high of 1,050,630 bopd; fell to 1,032,873 by the end of the 2nd quarter but then back up to 1,047,526 bopd by the beginning of the 3rd quarter.
Disclaimer: in a long note like this there will be factual and typographical errors. Some Bakken production numbers could be off slightly; some production data may be preliminary figures that were subsequently revised, but the delta will be minimal.

One more thing: the most interesting item came at the end of the article:
But perhaps a study published earlier in the week by analysts at Wood Mackenzie is what OPEC really wants to hear -- without technological innovation to overcome dwindling reservoir pressure, production from the Permian Basin could peak as soon as 2021. The shale boom flash in the pan will flare out and the world will return to "normal," with incremental demand to be met from the core OPEC countries and Russia once more. If the 158-year history of the oil industry has taught us anything, though, it is surely that innovation is one thing it is very good at.

Random Update On An Old Vertical Lodgepole Well -- September 24, 2017

Last reported about one year ago. Note that this well is still flowing without a pump.

This well  has produced more than 800,000 bbls of oil; was drilled back in 2009, is a conventional (vertical) well:
  • 18190, 463, Armstrong, Laurine Engel 1, conventional, Dickinson, Lodgepole; 61,000 barrels in first five months (at $60 = $3.6 million and this is a conventional well); cum 806K 7/17;
Recently monthly production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare