Operation EPIC FURY -- This Is Starting To Get Serious -- For Saudi Arabia -- March 28, 2026

Locator: 50351SAUDI.

This could be incredibly serious for Saudi Arabia -- it's not as if Venezuela doesn't exist? 

For the US:

• The original objective: help Israel take out Iran's nuclear program. 
• The new objective: find an off-ramp.   

*******************************
Long Term

AI prompt: 

Are Exxon, Chevron, others seriously considering Venezuela now with threat of Strait of Hormuz being controlled by Iran as the new normal?

Reply: 

And this is heavy oil, highly coveted by US refiners. 

 

You know, this is very, very interesting. Trump said today that going into the "war," he expected markets to fall much more than they have, and he expected the price of oil to surge much more than it has. That still may happen.

 

But presidents are change agents and think strategically. If one starts connecting the dots, it sure seems like Trump, Rubio, etc., are spending a a lot of time thinking about the Monroe Doctrine and acting.

 

Cuba.

Maduro / Venezuela.

 

The Panama Canal / kicking China out.

Stopping renewal energy growth -- is determined to end windmills in America. 

 

In the big scheme of things, it doesn't take oil companies to turn things around pretty quickly if they want.

Look at the time line for the Bakken revolution. Less than a decade to go from zero to a million bopd. 

 

And that was pretty much all "unproven" going in.

Venezuela: "they" already know what Venezuela has. 

 

Ticker: CVX -- 30-year horizon -- 

 

Windfall profits tax? Not under this administration, but in 2029? Certainly likely. 

 

LNG:

• Cheniere: share price up 26% over six months;
• Venture Global: share price up23% over same six months;
• Reported yesterday: Cheniere's fifth train is now operational -- 

AI prompt:  

How does Cheneire's current LNG export capacity with 5th train now operational at Corpus Christi compare with VG's total export capacity?

Reply:  

Astounding! Is anyone paying attention? 

• Cheniere: by far and away, the largest at 50 mtpa;
• VG: seeks to be exporting twice that amount in less than four years (100+ mtpa) 

With This Project, Venture Global Should Be On Track To Become The Largest US LNG Exporter -- March 13, 2026

Locator: 50213LNG.

Tag: Venture Global  

Venture Global shares up 40% in one month. 

Link here. 

"We Own 70% Of That" -- Qatar -- Golden Pass -- Update -- May 14, 2025

Locator: 48582GP.

Updates

May 14, 2025: Golden Pass update. Link here.

Golden Pass #LNG timing update.

"We [Qatar] own 70% of that. But these projects take time to actually deliver and we expect first LNG to come by the end of this year (2025) and hopefully to inaugurate officially the project in the 1st qt of 26,"  Qatari Energy Minister.
.

This is for Train 1 of 0.68 bcf/d. No ETA for Train 2 and Train 3 start.

That $400 million Boeing? Probably paid for in several weeks. LOL.  Best part? Trump living rent-free in Schumer's brain.

Original Post 

From March 4, 2025:

March 5, 2025 -- link here. This was the extension that the project needed -- back in March, 2025 -- thank you, Mr Trump and Mr Biden. The FERC commissioners. If I have this correct, three of the four were appointed by President Biden in 2024, and the current chairman was appointed by President Trump during the latter's first term in 2021. Link here.

April 28, 2025 -- within Trump's first 100 days! Another win for Trump. 

Link here.

US LNG Export Terminals -- Eleven -- Graphic Update -- May 4, 2025

Locator: 48582GP.

Updates

May 14, 2025: Golden Pass update. Link here.

Golden Pass #LNG timing update.

"We [Qatar] own 70% of that. But these projects take time to actually deliver and we expect first LNG to come by the end of this year (2025) and hopefully to inaugurate officially the project in the 1st qt of 26,"  Qatari Energy Minister.
.

This is for Train 1 of 0.68 bcf/d. No ETA for Train 2 and Train 3 start.

Original Post 

 ************************************
Easter 2025

Golden Pass -- Update -- May 4, 2025

Locator: 48581GP.

March 5, 2025 -- link here. This was the extension that the project needed -- back in March, 2025 -- thank you, Mr Trump and Mr Biden. The FERC commissioners. If I have this correct, three of the four were appointed by President Biden in 2024, and the current chairman was appointed by President Trump during the latter's first term in 2021. Link here.

April 28, 2025 -- within Trump's first 100 days! Another win for Trump. 

Link here.

 ****************************
Golden Pass

For "all"posts on "Golden Pass" on the blog, click here.

From June 21, 2022 -- link here.

Number 8?

• if Calcasieu Pass was the seventh US LNG export terminal to be built, is Golden Pass #8?
• Magnolia LNG, Louisiana, would be #9?
• I remember an "anonymous expert" wrote me in 2015 that just because all these projects were "on the board," there was no guarantee all of them would be built, implying that "we" were all getting way ahead of our headlights. 
  

US LNG export capacity: link here.

• record set in 2021, averaging 9.7 billion cubic feet per day = 3.54 trillion cubic feet annually
• forecast:
• an increase of 2.4 Bcf/d in 2022 --> a total of 5.94 trillion cubic feet annually
• an increase of an additional 0.5 Bcf/d in 2023 = 6.44 trillion cubic feet annually

Qatar:

• capacity to reach 126 million tonnes yearly by 2027
• current capacity: 77 million tonnes, 2022

Conversion:

• one million tonnes (LNG) = 48.7 Bcf
• 77 * 48.7 = 3.750 trillion cubic feet annually
• 126 million tonnes = 6.136 trillion cubic feet annually

Usual disclaimers apply:

• there will be typographical and content errors;
• I often make simple arithmetic errors

Golden Pass, XOM:

• 18 million tons of LNG per year = 877 Bcf
• Golden Pass + 2023 US forecast = 0.877 trillion +6.44 trillion = 7.3166 trillion cf/d
• Golden Pass as percent of current US export capacity: 0.877 trillion / 3.54 trillion = 35%

SPGlobal, June 21, 2022 (today):

• capacity: 18 million mt / year
• XOM / Qatar Energy
• project scheduled to open in 2024
• US in talks with XOM to accelerate the project
• one may want to look at this "press release" from just a couple of months ago:

A request by the Golden Pass LNG Terminal developer to bring in more workers to build the Texas natural gas export facility is still pending after a year at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission amid concerns of delay.

FERC staff issued an environmental assessment on March 22 that concluded a Golden Pass plan to boost the peak workforce from 2,900 to 7,700 people per day would not cause significant harm to the environment (CP14-517). But the request still requires approval at a time when FERC is facing pressure over a recent permitting policy overhaul, which commissioners are scheduled to revisit on March 24.

Critics of the policy changes, including gas industry groups and Republican lawmakers, have argued that FERC's new approach will hinder the development of gas infrastructure, even as the White House looks to boost LNG supplies to Europe following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Golden Pass told FERC in its original February 2021 request, which also sought to increase traffic volumes and extend construction hours around the clock, that "construction progress would be severely hampered and successful execution of the project would not be feasible" without the regulator's approval for a larger workforce.

Golden Pass -- Update -- Delayed But Meeting Revised Milestones -- May 4, 2025

Locator: 48580GP.

Within the first 100 days of Trump's watch! FERC approval. Another win for Trump.

Link here.

Definitely Not A Manic Monday -- December 30, 2024

Locator: 44569B.

Some love for Linda Lavin, link here:

LNG update: with Cheniere's 1.4 Bcf/d Corpus Christi III (#8) now on line, what's next:

• QatarEnergy/ExxonMobil’s 2.4-Bcf/d Golden Pass LNG (#9) in Sabine Pass, TX, which will start coming online in the first half of 2025; 
• Sempra's 0.43 Bcf/d Energía Costa Azul (ECA) LNG Phase 1 in west Mexico, to start up in spring, 2026 (this is a delay, had been scheduled to go online summer of 2025); update, June 6, 2026: production has begun. Links everywhere.
• NextDecade Corp.’s 2.3-Bcf/d Rio Grande LNG (#10) in Brownsville, TX, starting up in 2027; and,
• Sempra and ConocoPhillips’s 2-Bcf/d Port Arthur LNG (#11), coming online in 2027-28.

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

WTI: $71.05.

New wells reporting:

• Tuesday, December 31, 2024: 51 for the month; 154 for the quarter, 682 for the year
• None.
• Monday, December 30, 2024: 51 for the month; 154 for the quarter, 682 for the year
• None.
• Sunday, December 29, 2024: 51 for the month; 154 for the quarter, 682 for the year
• None.
• Saturday, December 28, 2024: 51 for the month; 154 for the quarter, 682 for the year
• 40731, conf, Rockport Energy, Camden 10-3 3H,
• 39499, conf, Enerplus, Brown Bear 158-99-36-25-5H, 
• 37664, conf, BR, Kellogg Ranch 1A TFH, 

RBN Energy: Gray Oak stands out as the only Permian crude pipeline to greenlight an expansion. Archived.

As crude oil production in the Permian continues to grow and pipelines from West Texas to the Gulf Coast edge closer to full utilization, it’s becoming a challenge for producers and shippers alike. Amid this capacity crunch, one pipeline stands out as the only one with a detailed expansion plan: the 850-mile, 900-Mb/d Gray Oak Pipeline from West Texas to Corpus Christi and Sweeny, TX, which started up in late 2019 and became fully operational in early 2020. In today’s RBN blog — the latest in our series on Permian crude oil pipelines — we discuss Gray Oak Pipeline’s dynamic story, including its shifting ownership, strategic connectivity and expansion plans.

In Part 1 and Part 3 of this series, we looked at Longhorn Pipeline and BridgeTex Pipeline, respectively, and what ONEOK has accomplished with these systems since it acquired Magellan. In Part 2, we looked at EPIC’s Crude Pipeline to the Corpus Christi area, which has been operating at full capacity. Today, we’ll cover Gray Oak.

We’ll begin by noting that Gray Oak started up shortly before crude oil demand cratered as the pandemic hit. In response, Permian producers shut in a significant amount of production during the summer of 2020. Additionally, two other new Permian pipelines — also to Corpus Christi — started up during the second half of 2019: Plains All American’s Cactus II (585 Mb/d) and EPIC Crude (400 Mb/d, expanded in 2020 to 600 Mb/d), resulting in a glut of crude pipeline egress.

Despite these challenges, Gray Oak’s outflows quickly ramped up throughout 2020. As shown in Figure 1 below, Gray Oak has operated near its 900-Mb/d capacity (dotted horizontal black line) for some time now. Earlier this year, Gray Oak Pipeline LLC sanctioned a 120-Mb/d expansion following a successful open season. Contracted volume commitments of 80 Mb/d start in April 2025 and one year later another 40 Mb/d is committed to the pipe. Gray Oak could offer early service for new or existing shippers if capacity is desired sooner.

 

Figure 1. Gray Oak Outflows. Source: RBN Crude Oil Permian

The ownership journey of Gray Oak Pipeline is complicated, to say the least. When the project was in its planning stage, Phillips 66 (P66) held a 75% stake and refining company Andeavor owned the remaining 25%. In 2018, Marathon Petroleum acquired Andeavor for $23 billion, inheriting its 25% stake in Gray Oak (box #1 in Figure 2 below), along with a similar stake in the South Texas Gateway (STG) export terminal in Ingleside, across the bay from Corpus. (More on that later ­— spoiler alert: STG’s traded hands a couple of times since then.) We should note that Andeavor and its old Andeavor Logistics master limited partnership (MLP) had its own intricate corporate history with Marathon and its MPLX unit.

Much, much more at the link. 

*********************************
Cheniere

December 30, 2024: Cheniere produces first LNG at Corpus Christi, stage III, link here.

April 16, 2024, flashback:

From RBN Energy, today: new JV's focus is moving Permian natural gas to LNG export terminals. Archived here.

Projects already approved / permitted by the US government ...  expected to increase U.S. LNG export capacity to about 25 Bcf/d from the current 14 Bcf/d.

Of that 11 Bcf/d of incremental capacity, more than 8 Bcf/d will be sited along the Texas coast.

These projects include Cheniere Energy’s 1.4-Bcf/d Stage III at Corpus Christi LNG, which is scheduled to begin starting up late this year; QatarEnergy/ExxonMobil’s 2.4-Bcf/d Golden Pass LNG in Sabine Pass, TX, which will start coming online in the first half of 2025; NextDecade Corp.’s 2.3-Bcf/d Rio Grande LNG in Brownsville, starting up in 2027; and Sempra and ConocoPhillips’s 2-Bcf/d Port Arthur LNG, coming online in 2027-28.

All the way back to 2017:

LNG Export Terminal Buildout -- December 22, 2024

Locator: 44503LNG.

There is nothing new here as far as I can tell. Just a recap of the LNG export terminal buildout.

First the EIA, link here: North America's LNG export capacity is on track to more than double by 2028 -- that's only three years from now --

Of note:

• Energia Costa Azul, reported earlier this year, link here; update, production has started, June 6, 2026, links everywhere:

• Golden Pass, expansion at Sabine Pass; partnership: QatarEnergy and XOM;
• Rio Grande, NextDecade; Brownsville, TX, first of three liquefaction trains;
• Port Arthur: Jefferson County, TX; two liquefaction trains; joint venture, Sempra and COP, with long term commitments from COP, INEOS (British), PKN Orlen (Baltic Energy, Poland), and Engie, SA (French electric utility);
  
  

Greenpeace, June 23, 2023, link here -- a most interesting source, but very comprehensive. Archived here. Back in 2023, Greenpeace says there were seven active US LNG export terminals. That agrees with what was stated the other day, making Plaquemines, number eight.

Look at all the sites approved (yellow dots) but not yet under construction, as of June 23, 2023).

Of note, along with Cameron and Calcasieu Pass:

• Lake Charles LNG
• Driftwood
• Magnolia
• Commonwealth

This is wiki's list, as of December 22, 2024:

Two additional comments:

• best source for up-to-date information on this subject: RBN Energy
• these export terminals depend on adequate pipeline supply from the Permian

The Big Story For The Day -- NGL -- The Permian -- The US -- May 13, 2024

Locator: 47141LNG. 

RBN Energy: Azul -- January 20, 2021. Link here. Now, four years later (2025), Sempra says Costa Azul may be ready for action. Update: June 6, 2026 -- production at Costa Azul has begun; links everywhere.

RBN Energy: new pipe will upend Permian NGL flows to non-Belvieu markets -- again. Archived.

For years, the South Texas NGL market was a world of its own — a self-contained liquids ecosystem centered around the refineries and petrochemical plants in the Corpus Christi area.

But that all changed about six years ago when EPIC Midstream built a new NGL pipeline from the Permian into Corpus and a new fractionator to process those liquids. Corpus morphed into a vibrant NGL market in its own right. But nothing with South Texas NGLs is easy.

Before the EPIC system was even up and running, a consortium calling itself BANGL — short for Belvieu Alternative NGL — announced another pipeline to compete for Permian NGLs that would parallel EPIC’s route out of the Permian, but then make a hard left toward Sweeny and Texas City, setting up a battle of the pipes for Permian NGLs.

The Panama Canal and US LNG.

• Link here. The Panama Canal is key to American LNG. 

Azul updates:

Azul: A number of RBN Energy blogs. Start here.

EIA:

***********************************
Biden's LNG Export Pause

RBN Energy: gauging the impact of the DOE's pause in LNG export licenses. Archived.

There’s no doubt about it: The Biden administration’s decision to pause approval of LNG export licenses poses a new threat to a number of projects thought to be nearing a final investment decision (FID).

The questions brought on by the move are profound: how big of a problem is this for U.S. developers, how does the timeout affect the projects now in limbo, and — over the longer term — what does the added uncertainty regarding incremental LNG exports mean for U.S. crude oil and natural gas production and what does it mean for the global energy landscape? In today’s RBN blog, we discuss the factors that led to the administration’s announcement — and the case to be made that expanded LNG exports are in the U.S.’s economic and strategic interest.

The U.S.’s mammoth reserves of natural gas, combined with strong global demand for LNG, have spurred a sharp rise in LNG export volumes over the past few years. As recently as December, an average of about 14 Bcf/d of LNG — or around 14% of the dry gas produced in the U.S. each day — is being liquefied and shipped overseas, almost all of it from export terminals along the Gulf Coast. And, with several new LNG export projects under construction, we expect those volumes to nearly double over the next four years.

History OF US LNG Export Industry -- January 27, 2024

Locator: 46664LNG.
Locator: 46664DEFLATION.

This is an incredible piece of work by Stephen Stapczynski over at twitter / X.

Two milestones:

• the Bakken revolution
• Aubrey McClendon

*****************************
Inflation Watch

Again, at the "most expensive" of the six+ grocery stores in our local area.

Great marketing and loyalty rewards but at the end of the dau it's all about the supply chain post-pandemic. 

 I would argue that the price of Tide detergent is fairly "price inelastic."

The government's market basket when pricing Tide: $7.49.

The consumer's market basket when pricing Tide: $3.99.

Tell me again US inflation is running at 9%. This is classic deflation. Not disinflation but deflation.

One of the few places we won't see much (if any) deflation in the US in 2024: restaurant meals; airline travel; shares of NVID.

******************************
A Second Language

The most commonly spoke language other than Spanish by state.

This is why I'm studying Spanish on Duolingo.

Holy Mackerel : It Never Quits — The Next Wave Of LNG Terminals — November 6, 2023

Locator: 45962LNG.     

Note: no e-mail access.

Link here. 

Energy: The 21st Century Will Belong To America -- November 4, 2023

Locator: 45939LNG.

Which country now exports the most natural gas in the known universe?

It would be interesting to see the "strategic" briefings the movers and shakers in Washington, DC, get with regard to US debt, deficits, and energy reserves.

Link here.

LNG Exports Set Monthly Record; Largest LNG Terminals In The US -- 2021

Locator: 44308B.

Giant: link here.

LNG: US exports -- record in March, 2023:  

From the linked article article above:

HOUSTON (Reuters) - U.S. producers of liquefied natural gas (LNG) last month regained momentum as the country's second-largest exporter Freeport LNG ramped up output, sending total shipments to an all-time record of 7.73 million tonnes, Refinitiv Eikon data showed on Monday, April 3, 2023.   7.73 million tonnes =  68,589,175 boe (link here) = 2,212,554 bbls/day.

Freeport LNG's facility in Texas, which had suspended operations after a fire last year, exited an eight-month outage in February and on Monday was on track to pull in about 2.2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas, above its nameplate capacity, pushing up the country's overall processing rates.

A total of 108 cargoes departed U.S. ports last month carrying 7.73 million tonnes of LNG, above the previous record of 7.67 million tonnes a year ago, according to Refinitiv Eikon trade flows data.

Europe was again the main destination for U.S. LNG exports, receiving almost 71% of total cargoes, while Asia received 1.32 million tonnes, or 17%. The production recovery allowed exporters to boost shipments to Latin America and the Caribbean, which last month received 4.5% of U.S. exports, the highest since September.

Average gas flows to all seven big U.S. LNG export plants have risen to 14.1 bcfd so far in April, up from a record 13.2 bcfd in March, signaling the export gains will continue in the weeks to come.

Link here.

The Race to Debottleneck U.S. LNG Feedgas Routes -- RBN Energy -- February 27, 2023

 RBN Energy: the race to debottleneck US LNG feedgas route. Archived.

LNG exports will be the biggest driver of demand growth for the Lower 48 natural gas market over the next five years.

After a year of oversupply in 2023, export capacity additions will help to balance the market and support gas prices in 2024 as the glut spills over into next year.

Beyond 2024, higher export volumes will lead to tighter balances and price spikes. As supply struggles to keep up with new export capacity, the timing of pipeline expansions will be critical for balancing the market

The bulk of new LNG export projects are sited along a small stretch of the Texas-Louisiana coastline and more pipeline capacity will be needed to move incremental feedgas into this area and across the “last mile” to the facilities. In today’s RBN blog, we begin a series delving into the planned pipeline expansions lining up to serve LNG demand along the Gulf Coast.

Sixteen Wells Coming Off Confidential Over Weekend; Might WTI Open "Green" Today? February 27, 2023

Top story of the day: Saudi, Ukraine.

• geopolitics
• Covid, WSJ, DOE
• China, Russia, Saudi, US
• photo of the day.
  

Covid, WSJ, DOE: well played.

• obviously "no one" read past the headline; LOL.
• P. T. Barnum comes to mind
  

Coal:

• energy transition is dead; we just don't know it yet -- Peter Zeihan;
• China: link here.
• the numbers are staggering
• thumbing their nose at Kyoto, Paris, Biden, Kerry
  

Credit card debt: the saga continues.

• lots of graphs (yes, we get it, enough with the graphs already): where's the analysis?

Ford, China: a disaster. Link to WSJ.

• there's a reason Ford doesn't publish a detailed breakdown of its China sales
• the market share for Ford’s largest joint venture in China, with Changan Automobile Co., shrank to 1% from 4% between 2016 and 2022, according to industry data and Changan-Ford’s company filings.
  

Investing:

• graphs

Buffett:

• the knives are out.
• has BRK become a meme stock?
  

Energy: among top ten stories of the year.

• WTI subsumes Brent;
• this is a biggie
• eleven -- count 'em -- eleven US Gulf Coast terminals --> WTI to Brent
• Dated Brent: WTI, Brent, Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk, Troll.
  

********************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 44.

Peter Zeihan newsletter.

WTI: $76.43 (green).

Natural gas: $2.597 (green, by 2%).

Monday, February 27, 2023: 84 for the month; 155 for the quarter, 155 for the year
39088, conf, CLR, Colette 5-18H,
39019, conf, Lime Rock, Yellowstone 12H,
38743, conf, Ovintiv, Sorenson Federal 153-96-9-4-11H,
38404, conf, Kraken, Sidney 32-29 2TFH,
36050, conf, Oasis, Foley Federal 5301 12-13 3B,

Sunday, February 26, 2023: 79 for the month; 150 for the quarter, 150 for the year
39087, conf, CLR, Colette 4-18H,
39018, conf, Lime Rock, Yellowstone 11H ,
38693, conf, Enerplus, Lob 149-92-31D-30H-LL,
38428, conf, Whiting, Nesheim 11-24HU,
38405, conf, Kraken, Sidney 32-29 3H,
38343, conf, Enerplus, Ace 149-92-31D-30H,
36048, conf, Oasis, Achilles 5301 12-13 3BX,

Saturday, February 25, 2023: 72 for the month; 143 for the quarter, 143 for the year
39017, conf, Lime Rock, Yellowstone 10H,
38742, conf, Ovintiv, Sorenson Federal 153-96-9-4-10H,
38406, conf, Kraken, Sidney 32-29 4TFH,
8029 (no typo), conf, Empire North Dakota, Romsos 1-21,

 RBN Energy: the race to debottleneck US LNG feedgas route. Archived.

LNG exports will be the biggest driver of demand growth for the Lower 48 natural gas market over the next five years. After a year of oversupply in 2023, export capacity additions will help to balance the market and support gas prices in 2024 as the glut spills over into next year. Beyond 2024, higher export volumes will lead to tighter balances and price spikes. As supply struggles to keep up with new export capacity, the timing of pipeline expansions will be critical for balancing the market. The bulk of new LNG export projects are sited along a small stretch of the Texas-Louisiana coastline and more pipeline capacity will be needed to move incremental feedgas into this area and across the “last mile” to the facilities. In today’s RBN blog, we begin a series delving into the planned pipeline expansions lining up to serve LNG demand along the Gulf Coast.

Cheniere Crushes It -- February 23, 2023

For me, the Cheniere story today (see below the fold) is just the beginning. 

Earlier today, link here:

Now, Cheniere today:

Link here. And, here.

Briefly:

• fiscal year revenue more than doubles;
• 4Q22 profit vs year-ago loss;
• expects price-sensitive Asian LNG demand to resume
• shares surged 8% to $160

Meanwhile:

Cheniere and its units have started the pre-filing review process with the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission for the proposed Sabine Pass stage 5 expansion project, which is being designed for an LNG production capacity of about 20 million tonnes per annum, it said.

Conversion: 20 million tonnes per annum = about 8,873,114 boe per annum = 25,000 boe / day (link here)

From August 22, 2022 with "Sabine Pass stage 5" noted:

Energy, emerging market:

• debt: $98 trillion
• 250% of combined GDP for emerging market countries.
• these emerging markets need energy, too, and they're paying UK prices for natural gas
• the US? Paying US prices for NG: about $2 / MMbtu

US LNG Export Terminals: The Big Three -- RBN Energy -- December 27, 2022

RBN Energy: is US LNG development cornered by the big three developers? Archived.

This year there’s been unprecedented forward momentum for LNG development.

Since 2022 began, two U.S. projects have reached a final investment decision (FID), with a third expected to reach that milestone in early 2023.

Offtakers have committed to 38 metric tons per annum (MMtpa), or 4.9 Bcf/d, of long-term LNG contracts from these and other proposed terminals this year and there’s another handful of U.S. projects with a realistic shot at FID in the next year or so, not to mention others in Mexico and Canada.

Progress on the LNG front has been dominated by three companies: Cheniere, Sempra and Venture Global. While there are other projects inching closer to FID, those from the proven LNG developers — our “three kings” — have leapfrogged to the front of the line. In today’s RBN blog, we look at what those three have under development and what it means for everyone else trying to build LNG export capacity.

21st Century: America's Century (Again) -- This Time -- Energy -- December 19, 2022

America's century: link here.

HOUSTON (Reuters) - The United States has become a global crude oil exporting power over the last few years, but exports have not exceeded its imports since World War II. That could change next year.

Sales of U.S. crude to other nations are now a record 3.4 million barrels per day (bpd), with exports of about 3 million bpd of refined products like gasoline and diesel fuel. The United States is also the leading liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter, where growth is expected to soar in coming years.

But the United States consumes 20 million barrels of crude a day, the most in the world, and its output has never exceeded 13 million bpd. Until recently, the idea that it would be anything but a big crude importer was folly.

Last month, U.S. government data showed net U.S. crude oil imports fell to 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd), the lowest since record keeping began in 2001. That is down sharply from five years ago, when the United States imported more than 7 million barrels per day.

RBN Energy: Sempra will soon expand its LNG export capacity with Port Arthur LNG, part 5. Archived.

Thanks to a warm start to the season and low Asian demand for LNG, Europe has so far been able to stave off a worst-case scenario for natural gas supply this winter. Still, the European market is keeping a keen eye on the years ahead, when the continent will need to rely on new sources of LNG to meet demand and refill inventories with little chance of any Russian gas. The call for more LNG has ushered in a new wave of export-project development, with two U.S. projects reaching a positive final investment decision (FID) this year and LNG offtakers in Europe and elsewhere committing to an incredible 37 MMtpa (4.9 Bcf/d) of long-term contracts from pre-FID sites in North America. This momentum has revived a number of projects from the COVID-induced wasteland, including Sempra’s Port Arthur LNG. In today’s RBN blog, we continue our series on U.S. LNG projects by taking a closer look at Port Arthur, the one most likely to take FID next.

So far in this series we’ve looked at four different U.S. projects. Two of them — Plaquemines LNG and Corpus Christi Stage III, the subjects of Part 1 and Part 2 — have both now taken FID. In Part 4, we discussed NextDecade’s Rio Grande LNG, which closed multiple sales and purchase agreements (SPAs) over the summer and has now sold 75% of its Phase 1 capacity. NextDecade, which is still securing offtakers and financing for the project, raised $85 million in September through a private placement equity sale. Although taking perhaps a little longer than expected, the project remains likely to move forward at this point.

If you’re thinking, “Hey, you skipped Part 3,” there’s a reason for that. That blog covered Tellurian’s controversial Driftwood LNG, which at the time had already begun construction despite not having secured full financing. Since then, Tellurian and Driftwood publicly suffered a major setback after losing two of the project’s three offtakers and rescinding a bond offering due to lack of interest. But Tellurian’s drama has more to do with its project structure than the wider LNG market environment, and other projects continue to see support and make progress toward FID, including the project we’re looking at today, Port Arthur, which in the past few months has leap-frogged several other projects in development and is closing in on FID in the next few months.

Sempra already owns and operates Cameron LNG in Louisiana and has the first-ever Mexican LNG export terminal, ECA LNG, which is now under construction, with first LNG expected in 2025. The company also has a number of other projects under development, including another Mexican project, Vista Pacifico LNG, and potential expansions of Cameron and ECA. Port Arthur has been in development for a number of years and received Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) authorization in April 2019. Sempra had a non-binding equity agreement with Saudi Aramco for a 25% stake in the project and 5 MMtpa (660 MMcf/d) of LNG underpinning Port Arthur’s development but that deal fell apart in 2021. Shortly after, the terminal’s only other customer, PGNiG, also pulled out of its offtake agreement and Sempra paused development on the project. At the time, Sempra was re-evaluating its LNG strategy and project designs. It redesigned the Cameron expansion, necessitating further FERC permitting. That project is likely to move forward eventually, but with the FERC permits pending, Sempra turned back to Port Arthur, focusing on a two-train approach that will enable exports of up to 13.5 MMtpa (1.8 Bcf/d) of LNG, and is now closing in on FID. Sempra has said it is targeting about 10 MMtpa (1.3 Bcf/d) of long-term contracts for Phase 1.

Much more at the link.

Port Arthur -- Sempra

December 19, 2022: Port Arthur, update.

Port Arthur LNG Phase 1: permitted and expected to include two natural gas liquefaction trains and LNG storage tanks and associated facilities capable of producing as much as 13.5M metric tons/year of liquefied natural gas.

• $10.5 billion project (Phase 1)
• capacity: 13.5 million metric tons / year
• to start 2027
• Sempra to make FID for Phase 1 in 1Q23
• Phase 2: similarly sized project being marketed and developed

December 6, 2022: Sempra signs LNG supply deal with Engie for Port Arthur project

• Engie: French power company
• Phase 1 of the proposed Port Arthur LNG project under development
• Engie will purchase 875 metric tones / year; 15-year term

December 1, 2022: link here.

• Ineos
• 1.4 million metric toons / year; 20-year term

November 16, 2022, link here.

• WMB and Sempra;
• preliminary agreement envisions two 20-year aggreements;
• three million tons per annum (MTPA) of LNG in total from the Port Arthur LNG project and the Cameron LNG Phase 2 project.

November 22, 2022: link here.

• COP
• to provide 5 million metric tons LNG
• acquires 30% of the equity in Phase Q

October 18, 2022: link here.

• FERC grants extension.

June 22, 2022: link here.

• updating the US LNG export list

The graphics, from The [London] Globe and Mail, November 19, 2022::