Rambling -- Micron -- "We're All Sold Out" -- December 18, 2025

Locator: 49731MU.

Updates

December 19, 2025:

Original Post  

Quick! Has this ever happened before -- completely sold out of anything for two years! And we're barely into the fourth (sixth) industrial revolution. How many of those large data centers proposed six months ago have even been built yet. And we're already out of high-bandwidth memory chips for 2025 and 2026. I don't Cramer has mentioned this once. A P/E of 23. Oh, give me a break! And still not at its all-time high. 

 
In progress. Not ready for prime. time. 

I was disappointed to hear Cramer's remarks this past week with regard to the fourth (sixth) industrial revolution. It sounds like he's giving up; changing his tune on AI, particularly chips. Simply because of one bad stretch. Of five days. Oh, give me a break. 

If I haven't misunderstood what he's saying ... wow, what a doofus. 

I took advantage of all the bad news including adding to my position in BRK. We've talked about that before. Again, I'm looking at this from a 30-year perspective.

But the bigger story is the "rambling" story about Target earlier.

I love all that talk about moats.

The new moat? Free cash flow; cash hoards; market caps; leverage, margins. 

And then this: Micron.

What an incredible story.

Micron: "We're all sold out."

 

 

 

Rambling -- December 18, 2025

Locator: 49730AI.

Over on x today there was a bit of difference of "opinion" regarding revenue of AI companies. Apparently it depends on how one asks the question. Chatbots are very exacting and one needs to know exactly what question one is asking, and then ensure it's being asked correctly. Chatbot don't have the ability to "nuance" what you're thinking.

I asked twice, at two different times, and got the same answer: taking revenue from all sources, AI-related or not; from chips or not; from the cloud or not; it does not matter -- taking revenue from all sources and using the broadest definition of "AI-related companies," what "AI-related companies are reporting the most revenue. [Although ChatGPT did not consider Walmart an AI-related company, in fact, it is 

AI reply:

Another great source to compare the Mag-7: "AppEconomy" on x. 

But this is what really surprised me. The question, tracking revenue from all sources, compare Walmart and Amazon.

Here's the very, very straightforward answer:

So, in round numbers:

• Amazon: $700 billion; cut that in half -->
• Alphabet: $300 billion; cut that in half, again -->
• Nvidia: $150 billion

Re-do the list, but add Walmart:

So, in round numbers:

• Amazon: $700 billion; edging out --> 
• Walmart: $600 billion: cut that in half -->
• Alphabet: $300 billion; cut that in half, again -->
• Nvidia: $150 billion

The one retailer that has to be scared out of its wits: Target. This is existential.

In retail, Target is a direct competitor of Walmart and Target has absolutely nothing to separate it from Walmart and half-a-dozen other grocers and general merchandise. Thirty years from now, the retail landscape is going to look a lot different than it does now. And unless there's something over the horizon that none of us can see, Target could be the "lone man" out. 

Total revenue from all sources, Target, not going in the right direction:

• 2024: $106.6 billion
• 2023: $109 billion 

Revenue: Walmart could be a trillion-dollar (revenue company) by the time Target hits $100 billion (no typo). 

Market cap:

• Target: $44 billion
• Walmart: $931 billion

P/E:

• Walmart: 40 (being valued as a growth, tech company;
• Target: 12

Dividend:

• WMT: acting like a tech company, less than 1%
• TGT: trending toward 5%, currently 4.6% 

Memo to self: Kroger --

• look at market cap: $40 billion (same as Target)
• look at P/E: 60 (5x that of Target)
• look at dividend: 2%

Four New Permits -- December 18, 2025

Locator: 49729B.

New federal holidays? Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, almost assured. Is Yom Kippur next? Monday, September 21, 2026. 

Ten-day Jewish High Holy Days, starting with Jewish New Year, Rosh Hashanah, weekend of September 12, 2026, and ending with Yom Kippur.

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $56.93.

Active rigs: 31.

Four new permits, #42580 - #42583, inclusive:

• 42580, loc, EOG, Lostwood 37-2710H, Kittleson Slough, NENW 34-158-91, 595 FNL 2626 FWL;
• 42581, loc, EOG, Lostwood 38-2710H, Kittleson Slough, NWNE 34-158-91, 595 FNL 2610 FWL; 16-feet surface spacing for spud; closest I've ever seen;
• 42582, loc,EOG, Lostwood 39-2710H, Kittleson Slough, NWNE 34-158-91, 595 FNL 2560 FEL; 
• 42583, loc,EOG, Lostwood 40-2711H, Kittleson Slough, NWNE 34-158-91, 595 FNL 2510 FEL;  

Four permits canceled: 

• KODA Resources: permits for four SWD wells (Williams, Divide counties)

Five producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:

• 31790, 871, Petro-Hunt, Phelps Trust 153-94-6B-2-2H, McKenzie County;
• 31791, 438, Petro-Hunt, Phelps Trust 153-94-6B-2-3H, McKenzie County;
• 38670, 1,251, Petro-Hunt, USA153-95-3A-33-2H, Mountrail County;
• 41524, 394, Petro-Hunt, Torgerson 158-94-15C-10-1H, McKenzie County;
• 41525, 600, Petro-Hunt, Torgerson 158-94-15D-10-2H, McKenzie County;

Thursday -- December 18, 2025

Locator: 49728B. 

Update, December 20, 2025 -- I got my "shots" Wednesday around noon. Today, less than 72 hours later, all discomfort at injection sites has completely dissipated. Last Tylenol, sometime yesterday. Today, I return to the pharmacy (at local grocery store) to thank Melissa (the injectionist and part time tattoo artist) and provide her feedback which helps her when talking to prospective injectionees. 

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Original Post 

Personal note: I got both "shots" yesterday --  my "seasonal flu shot" (right arm) and the "new" Covid-19 vaccine (left arm; Moderna) yesterday. I took Tylenol in anticipation; another Tylenol four hours later; can't recall if I took a Tylenol at bedtime; took a Tylenol this am.

Left arm, Moderna, Covid: almost no discomfort; I hardly know I got the shot. Brand name: Mnexspike 25-26 Pfs inj Moderna. 

Right arm, flu: very painful several. hours later, but compared to almost every other pain I've had in life, I hardly notice it. And if I keep moving it (as in "work"), I don't even notice. it. Brand name: Fluzone Hd 25 - 26 Pfs Sanofi.

This was my sixth Covid vaccination -- remember, at the beginning, those vaccines came fast and furious; now annual.  

I have always gotten the Pfizer vaccine but the pharmacy I always go to did not have the Pfizer vaccine this year. They couldn't get any; sold out. So, I got the Moderna. I really don't "care" any more. 

For me, perfect timing. Covid is annual so it really doesn't matter exactly when you get the vaccine, just get it. 

"Seasonal flu," on the other hand is seasonal (well, duh) and CDC shows that there's not much influenza going around quite yet. Incredibly warm winter is mostly the reason. So, I got the "flu" in anticipation of a colder January.

Putting Pelosi to shame: we'll get back to this later. No doubt Mr. Trump has four kids who are helping him in his private business dealings. The WSJ has a front-page article on the Trump global business "franchise."

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $56.38.

New wells reporting:

• Friday, December 19, 2025: 45 for the month, 168 for the quarter, 752 for the year,
• 41691, conf, CLR, Sibbern Federal 5-22H1, 
• 41278, conf, Hess, BB-Rice-LW-150-95-07H-1, 
• Thursday, December 18, 2025: 43 for the month, 166 for the quarter, 750 for the year, 
• 41300, conf, Hess, BL-Herfindahl-LW-156-95-3031H-1, 
• 40846, conf, Devon Energy, Grand National 34-36F-3H, 

RBN Energy: E&Ps foresee little change in CAPEX plans, but production continues to grow. Link here. Archived. 

U.S. oil and gas producers continue to ignore political pressures to “drill, baby, drill,” sticking rigidly to capital discipline and trimming their drilling-and-completion activity. But that hasn’t kept production from inching up as E&Ps continue to increase their productivity. In today’s RBN blog, we’ll review recent adjustments to producers’ capital budgets and the data we have so far on their 2026 spending plans.

The revised 2025 capital spending guidance for the 38 E&Ps we monitor increased to $60.4 billion (solid blue bar labeled Q3 2025E and left axis in Figure 1 below), up about $400 million from Q2 2025 guidance, but that still leaves capital outlays about 3% below their 2024 level. Two-thirds of the Q3 increase was from the Diversified E&P peer group, but the year-over-year decline for the group remains at 6%. Spending in 2025 so far by the Oil-Weighted E&Ps is 2% lower than 2024, while the Gas-Weighted E&Ps are expected to increase their investment by 1%.

Inflation Watch -- December 18, 2025

Locator: 49727INFLATION.

Inflation: comes in much less than expected. NY Times says: don't believe it. It's an anomaly, even if it's accurate and you believe it. Link here. Meanwhile, unemployment inched up last month, now at a recent high at 4.6%. J Pow says more data needed before changing the Fed rate. 

From same article, same link:

Explains why our rent did not go up -- on 18-month leases, back to back -- 36 months of stable rent. 

Re-posting:

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Inflation Watch

This is a most unscientific, useless piece of data but it's what I'm seeing in my neighborhood. Price of eggs is generally tracked at Walmart. Romaine lettuce is back to normal.

Percent changes (in bold red) are compared to the base year, 2014, not year-over-year. Most alarming, without question, is the cost of mailing/shipping. The high cost of USPS is offset by a) almost no letter mail any more -- has long been replaced by e-mail; and, b) almost no shipping, replaced almost entirely by Amazon Prime, free shipping.

Rent: in addition, most important to us, I suppose, is our rent. We generally sign for longest lease available if we have no plans to move.

As long as I can remember, we have signed 18-month leases.

We just signed our new 18-month lease, begins next March, 2026. Signing three months is advance gets us a nice monthly discount and a little bit of a one-time incentive at the start of the lease for signing early. Whoo-hoo.

Our lease for the next 18 months did not go up / did not increase. Okay, it did, a little -- $18 / month. The price of two $9-lattes at Starbucks.  

Beef: what are y'all paying for beef in your neck of the woods. Screenshots of our grocers' circulars from yesterday: