The last country in the west to say "enough is enough...."
Still need to mask when flying in.
Tuesday, September 20, 2022
The Next 72 Hours Begins ..... NOW! September 20, 2022
Updates
September 21, 2022, 6:47 a.m.: "I'm not bluffing about nuclear weapons." --Putin
The Next 72 Hours Begins Here
7:08 p.m. CT.
Time to put on CCR and play it loud.
Putin's Vietnam moment.
Chaos.
Desperate.
Russian "soldiers" will defect en mass, leave Russia, and find a new life in Europe.
Washington Post reporters may want to start counting the number of pizza delivery trucks that start showing up at NSA headquaters tonight.
I remember being a part of that organization long ago and in a faraway place.
Putin wants two "provinces" in Ukraine to vote to withdraw from Ukraine and become "independent."
Ukraine? Formal request to join NATO and the EU.
I find it incredible that CCR did not make it on the most recent "top 100 album" list. Obviously the judges had no sense of history or music.
No one cares but I can associate "a significant other" with no less than than six wonderful and beautiful women" during this period, 1969 - 1979. Or was it seven? Of the six/seven there is only one that still piques my interest, wondering where she ended up, how she's doing. She was the most vulnerable. Los Angeles is ... the city of Angels.
Ninety-nine Americans out of a hundred have no clue what's going on and none of them care.
******************************
B-21
Just in time.
In his last ten years, Rush Limbaugh pretty much phoned it in, simply reading "The Drudge Report."
Me? Twitter.
Image here. First operational base to receive the B-21? Ellsworth AFB, South Dakota, Rapid City, SD.
What a great country.
Boring, Boring Night Ahead Of Me -- September 20, 2022
All grandfatherly duties are done for the day.
Wow, without the NFL tonight, it's going to be a long, boring evening. I generally save my reading for earlier in the day. Duolingo, likewise, is a morning activity.
I could go for a long bike ride but my muscles are probably at their limit(s). So far today:
- 85 minutes on the treadmill;
- full workout on weights;
- swimming pool twice
- first time: one hour
- second time: forty minutes
- bike ride: short
- on my bike ride today, a large dog "attacked me" -- but it was a friendly attack
- just wanted to play; I'm so glad I had training decades ago how to respond to an "attacking" dog
- I think the owner was very, very impressed with my composure even as my right angle was being bitten. LOL. A gentle bite by a huge dog. But I knew the breed, and I knew it wasn't going too hurt me (on purpose).
- had it been a Rotweiler or German Shepherd, it likely would have been a different outcome, and not good.
So, a bit of reading, then Perry Mason, FaceTime with the twins, and fall asleep under the stars.
PSX -- From A SeekingAlpha Contributor -- Laser-Focused On Dividends -- September 20, 2022
Phillips 66 (PSX): a coiled spring yielding 4.75.
- PSX has dropped $6 since my last Seeking Alpha article recommending investors HOLD the stock due to the pending DCP acquisition bid.
- That (dropping $6/share) does not appear to be rational given PSX could earn $16/share this year and the new 150,000 bpd Frac4 unit is expected to come online any day now.
- The stock is currently yielding 4.7% but the current annual dividend obligation of $3.88/share is only an estimated ~30% of mid-cycle FCF of $6 billion.
Abbreviated disclaimer: this is not an investment
site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or
relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have
read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.
All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Not recommending but for me? Overweight.
Five New Permits; Rigs Increased; Interesting Name Changes; One Permit Renewed; One DUC Reported As Completed -- September 20, 2022
WTI: the lower WTI goes, the better the Bakken looks (among the four -- the Texas Permian, the New Mexico Permian, the Eagle Ford, and the Bakken). Trust me on this one.
Active rigs: 47. Note the increase.
WTI: $84.45. Down 1.5% today. It will be interesting to see what "oil" does when Putin announces that Russia is fully mobilized for war.
Natural gas: $7.688.
Five new permits, #39252 - #39256, inclusive:
- Operator: Hess
- Field: Banks (McKenzie)
- Comments:
- Hess has permits for five SC-4WX wells, lot 2 section 3-152-96;
- to be sited 625 FNL and between 2088 FEL and 2220 FEL
One permit renewed:
- 29615, Slawson, Rebel Federal 2-32-8H, Mountrail Counthy
One producing well (a DUC) reported as completed:
- 38567, 572, Hunt, Halliday 145-93-15-22H-6, Dunn
Interesting name changes. With regard to these name changes, two things to note:
- 30595, EOG, Liberty LR 30-2320H, was Liberty LR 30-2321H,
- 30594, EOG, Liberty LR 108-2320H, was Liberty LR 108-2321H,
- 38325, EOG, Liberty LR 56-2320H, was Liberty LR 56-2317H,
Several Big Stories Breaking, About To Break, Or Scheduled To Break -- September 20, 2022
Ukraine: it looks like Putin is ready to "go nuclear."
- No, not with nukes but putting his entire country on warfooting; mobilizing entire country; all men aged 18 to 60 will be subject to recall; none allowed to leave Russia or Russian-held territory. Putin's speech scheduled for today, postponed until tomorrow.
- Putin to speak Wednesday.
- Next up:
- the UN: worthless
- the EU: will be interesting
- the US: the big question -- who is writing the speech that Joe Biden will give?
- If you thought the market was ugly today, just wait until tomorrow.
Stagflation: Mohamed El-Erian, a regular feature on CNBC says "stagflation" is coming. Oh, no!
Mohamed must be reading the blog -- what does he recommend? Sell everything? Nope, buy, buy, buy. But be laser-focused.
ND Legacy Fund: should report September, 2022, deposits this week.
Hurricane season: update.
- Fiona finally off the islands. Google winds here.
Beer: shortage looming.
- for the archives, here in north Texas:
- generally, price of a six-pack is $10.99; but often seen $11.99 and $9.99 is common
- I have no problem finding my favorite IPAs selling for $8.99
- but if someone were to ask what beer costs in north Texas, I would probably have to say: $10.99
- so, we will check in on the price of beer one month from now (if I remember)
Sort of like all those global warming stories from 1994: link here.
Why USAF loadmasters earn their pay: link here.
I'll get to these stories and more later this evening but right now spending some time with Sophia.
Amazon, Amazon Prime, And TNF. Hitting On All Cylinders -- September 20, 2022
See this note for background. At that post, juist a couple of days ago:
5. NFL TNF: as predicted, Amazon is improving the TNF experience. First, they brought in two of the best announcers. Second, working with NFL, it appears TNF will feature top contests. TNF might now compete with MNF and SNF. I look for more improvements for TNF; already there are others including multiple streams like the PGA does. TNF is only available on Amazon, except for viewers who live where the teams are based. So, this past Thursday, viewers in Kansas City and Los Angeles could watch the game on their local network if they had an antenna; the rest of the nation could only see if they subscribed to Prime Video, which is bundled with Amazon Prime.
Today, from CNBC:
From the linked article:
Amazon’s first broadcast of “Thursday Night Football” attracted a record number of new Prime signups over a three-hour period, more than during similar periods on Prime Day or other big shopping days such as Black Friday and Cyber Monday, an executive said in a memo viewed by CNBC.
The matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Chargers last week was the first of 15 games Amazon will broadcast as part of a deal with the National Football League. Amazon is spending about $1 billion per year to exclusively stream Thursday Night Football through 2023, CNBC previously reported.
“By every measure, Thursday Night Football on Prime Video was a resounding success,” Jay Marine, global head of Amazon’s sports division, wrote late Monday in the memo to staff.
Nielsen has yet to release official viewership numbers for the game. Marine said Amazon’s measurement “shows that the audience numbers exceeded all of our expectations for viewership.”
Amazon is betting heavily on sports broadcasting with the hope that it will boost its Prime membership. The Prime subscription program, which charges $139 per year for a host of perks including free shipping, now has some 200 million subscribers worldwide. Amazon has said there are 80 million active Prime Video households in the U.S. [200 million x 139 = 27,800 million. Is that $28 billion in subscription fees paid up-front!]
It’s beefed up its Prime Video content in other ways to hook viewers and new subscribers. The company recently debuted its long-awaited series “The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power,” which is derived from the appendices of J.R.R. Tolkien’s “Lord of the Rings” books. Amazon said the first episode of the series, which set a record for being the most expensive show ever made, attracted more than 25 million viewers globally in its first day.
Why I'm Still Investing in Tech -- September 20, 2022
Laser-focused on dividends.
Companies don't increase their dividends if they anticipate bad times coming.
Logitech (LOGI) increased its quarterly dividend.
MSFT increased its quarterly dividend.
AAPL: $24 billion in buybacks in 2Q22 -- probably more in 3Q22.
In the "buybacks" vs "dividends" discussion, I argue for dividends. Two exceptions: BRK-B and AAPL.
Warren Buffett is clear on this issue.
Regarding Apple, their dividend / buyback policy helps explain Apple's view of itself: "Apple" doesn't think of itself as a mature company. "Apple" sees itself as a fast growing company. A growth company, not a value company. Builds a cash position to grow the company.
Abbreviated disclaimer: this is not an investment
site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or
relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have
read here. Full disclaimer at tabbed link.
All my posts are done quickly:
there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of
my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find
typographical / content errors, I will correct them.
Already Walking Back That Foolish Statement: "Pandemic Is Over" -- September 20, 2022
Earlier this morning I wrote:
Covid-19:
Folks are misinterpreting Biden's remarks. Administration will walk back Biden's remarks when it goes to Congress for more Covid funding.
Now this, exactly as predicted (link: https://www.foxnews.com/media/white-house-ridiculed-after-walking-back-bidens-statement-pandemic-over-not-charge):
Happened way faster than I expected. Looks like his handlers walked back his statement when he was en route back from the funeral.
In The US: The Waffle House Index; In Ukraine? The McDonald's Index -- September 20, 2022
McDonald's will begin a phased re-opening in Ukraine (even as Starbucks begins a phased closing in the US).
- one has to ask: where is it safer to live? The Ukraine or Portland?
*************************
The Music Page
This is quite interesting.
Chevrolet is now featuring a Fleetwood Mac song from 1987.
Recently, Fleetwood Mac's album Rumours was named the second best album ever (Purple Rain / Prince was #1). Rumours was released in 1977.
With Rumours at #2 and Prince at #1, that means Fleetwood Mac beat out both Abbey Road and Sgt Peppers Lonely Hearts Club Band. I'm shocked. Shocked.
Note: this song is/was not on the Rumouurs album. This song was from a later album.
This is great news for Apple. One can argue music is what made Apple #1 in smart phones.
Bottom line:
After comparing these two streaming services, Apple Music is a better option than Spotify Premium simply because it currently offers high-resolution streaming.
However, Spotify still has some major advantages like collaborative playlists, better social features, and more.
If you’re someone who avidly uses Apple devices in their daily life, you’ll appreciate Apple Music’s familiar UI design language, Siri support, and automatic synchronization across Apple devices.
On the other hand, Spotify has always been designed with cross-compatibility in mind.
If you’re looking to step out of Apple’s ecosystem when streaming music, Spotify is sure to satisfy listeners with its vast collection of music and podcasts, and its powerful music recommendation algorithms. However, while you can access Spotify for free, Premium doesn’t just eliminate the ads.
The free version of Spotify doesn’t let you save music locally, which can tax mobile data plans, and also limits how often you can skip songs while using the mobile app (6 an hour). Still, it’s a great option if you want to save money and mainly listen to music on your computer.
Let's parse that:
"If you’re looking to step out of Apple’s ecosystem when streaming music, Spotify is sure to satisfy listeners ..."... the Spotify experience will "satisfy" listeners ... but not "wow" them.
But this is reality:
Kudos to Spotify.
Apple Page: iPad, iPhone -- September 20, 2022
iPad: new iPad to be announced next week?
- Macrumors.
- can't keep up with iPad models? Link here. Also here, but cluttered with ads.
- I can't imagine life without an iPad.
- it's about the only e-tool Sophia uses; when she is at the apartment, I think I need to get another iPad
iPhone: two data points
- folks want the high-end, high-margin, high-cost iPhone
- the difference in price from cut-rate to high-end is inconsequential when spread out over two years
- Apple can't keep up with demand
- what's not to like: can't keep up with demand, and buyers want the most expensive model
"Due to strong demand for the iPhone 14 Pro models, my latest survey indicates that Apple has asked Hon Hai [Foxconn] to switch the production lines of the iPhone 14 to the iPhone 14 Pro models," said Kuo in a tweet today.
Foxconn is formally known as Hon Hai.
Kuo said Foxconn will convert some of its iPhone 14 assembly lines to iPhone 14 Pro assembly lines as a result of the move, adding that the conversion will be equivalent to about a 10% increase in the shipment forecast of iPhone 14 Pro models.
The analyst noted this will help to increase the average selling price of iPhones in the fourth quarter.
***************************The Book Page
Summer surprise: the last book for the summer may simply be the best.
Last book for the summer: Wise Gals: The Spies Who Built the CIA and Changed the Future of Espionage, Nathalia Holt, published September 13, 2022.
Most interesting: connects the dots from Berlin, April 30, 1945, to Kyiv, September 20, 2022.
One Well Coming Off Confidential List -- September 20, 2022
Covid-19: folks are misinterpreting Biden's remarks. Administration will walk back Biden's remarks when it goes to Congress for more Covid funding.
Apple page: new iPad to be announced next week?
Supply chain: shortage persists; perplexing. No one can explain.
- every industry hurting, but is truck manufacturing / automobile manufacturing the worst hit?
Toilet paper: in Europe, next crisis. Americans may want to take note.
Germany: more and more reports of factories closing.
Squeezable, best, by far: grape jelly.
- why did it take so long?
NFL: Monday night -- the NFL is back. Buffalo Bills -- Josh Allen -- Stephon Diggs
- in first two games, Buffalo Bills has outscored opponents 72 - 17
- it would be worse, but by the end of the third quarter, more points no longer matter
NFL: for the Miami Dolphins, the first three quarters did not matter --
***********************************
Back to the Bakken
The Far Side: link here.
Active rigs: 46.
WTI: $85.39.
Natural gas: $7.750.
New well status: 90%+ of wells coming off confidential list are going to loc/drl status.
Wednesday, September 21, 2022: 33 for the month, 83 for the quarter, 422 for the year
38698, conf, Rimrock, MC 14-11 Narwhal 34H,
38723, conf, Ovintiv, Calhoun 149-98-3-10-11H,
38204, conf, Whiting, Lehr 11-13-2HU,
38726, conf, Slawson, Cannonball Federal 1 SLH,
RBN Energy: changes to global refining industry fueled by pandemic, economics.
The high cost of gasoline and diesel and their impact on inflation and the global economy has been a major market development this year ...
... with the blame typically being cast on politicians, oil producers and policies intended to limit development of traditional energy resources and encourage decarbonization — and sometimes all of the above. Prices have retreated in recent weeks amid lower consumer demand and worries about the state of the global economy, but long-term concerns about global refining capacity and the possibility of another price spike remain.
In its highly publicized June 15 letter to U.S. oil executives, the Biden administration demanded refiners reactivate lost capacity and increase production, an acknowledgement that consumer demand had outstripped refining capacity. And although we tend to focus on the U.S. refining picture, refined products trade globally, just like crude oil, and international refinery closures ultimately have the same effect on the worldwide market as domestic shutdowns.
Most refining-capacity reductions in recent years — in the U.S. and elsewhere — were driven by the same forces, namely, poor economics resulting from the pandemic-driven demand plunge in 2020 and 2021 as well as expectations that margins would take a long time to recover post-COVID.
(We should note that refinery profitability has been high this summer and remains strong despite the recent price decreases.)
Of course, worries that the energy transition and policies to that end would suppress demand in the long-term also played a key role, as did some fundamental competitiveness issues at individual facilities. Here are the key issues we discuss in our new report on global refining.
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