Thursday, December 5, 2019

Blogging Might Be A Big Different For The Next Week -- December 5, 2019

To readers:

My wife is out of town for the week. We share driving duties, taking three granddaughters to and from school and to all their after-school activities.

My wife is out of two for eight days.

I plan to blog just as much but the blogging may be earlier in the morning and later in the evening, but it will all get done.

But if you don't see much blogging from late afternoon to early evening, that's the reason. Hopefully, by mid-December, things will be back to normal.

All Politics -- Nothing About The Bakken

I love these headlines and these stories.

From The Chicago Tribune December 4, 2019, about 60 days out from first delegate selections:

Unfortunately there are no recent state polls out, but for the archives, note the most recent poll, and how Amy Klobuchar is polling:

Data from RealClear Politics:
  • national, 12/1 - 12/3:  3% (has not varied from 2% or 3% since the CNN poll 11/21 - 11/24
  • Iowa State, 11/15 - 11/19: 5% (has not varied from 5% to 6% since first of three polls)
  • New Hampshire, 11/22 - 11/26: 2%, down from 6% 11/13 - 11/18;
  • Nevada, 11/10 - 11/13: 2%; absolutely no change since 10/31 - 11/2;
  • South Carolina, 11/13 - 11/17 (Quinnipiac): 1%; really? yes, really; 
  • California, 11/20 - 11/22: 1%;  
  • Texas, 10/18 - 10/27: 2%;
  • Massachusetts, 10/16 - 10/20: 1%;
So, in her backyard (Iowa/Minnesota): polls at 5%; everywhere else, 1% to 2% -- momentum?  I'm waiting for the next polls.

At best, she is shooting for the VP role.

And yes, there will be a woman on the Democrat ticket. But it's not going to be Amy Klobuchar. 

Whiting Cancels Seventeen Permits -- December 5, 2019

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5562533964

Five new permits:
  • Operators: CLR (3); MRO (2)
  • Fields: Banks (McKenzie); St Demetrius (Billings); Killdeer (Dunn)
  • Comments:
    • CLR has a single permit for a Xavier well in section 10-141-99; St Demetrius; and two Monroe permits for Lot 12 / section 2-152-99;
    • MRO has permits for two well Hoss/McGowan pad in section 34-146-95, Dunn County
Two permits renewed:
  • EOG: two Clarks Creek permits in McKenzie County
Whiting canceled seventeen permits:
  • in Williams County (11): Larson (2), Jackman, P Lynch (2), Schilke (3), Olson (2), P Bibler, 
  • in Stark County (6): Koppinger (2); Tomchuk; Solberg, Dietz, Wright;
  • Whiting's common stock fell 7.33% today; lost 37 cents; and, closed the day at $4.68; intra-day low of $4.60; 52-week intra-day low is $4.29;
One producing well (DUC) reported as completed:
  • 36040, 3,023, WPX, White Owl 32-29HC, Eagle Nest, t11/19; cum 10K over first 31 days;
    • neighboring, parent well, #18419 remains off line:
      • WXP, 510, Bearstail, 32-29H, t2/12; cum 329K 9/19; remains off line 10/19;

Notes From All Over, Part 1 -- December 5, 2019

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, career, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Politics: The US House will vote to impeach President Trump. The US Senate has the entire month of January cleared for the trial.

The market: was headed marginally higher before the US House (Ms Nancy Pelosi) announcement. After the announcement, the Dow turned slightly negative.

Macron's France, this is how you cut your CO2 emissions, from zerohedge:
In what appears to be the biggest disruption to French society since the gilets jaunes demonstrators nearly torched Paris last year, public workers across the country stayed home on Thursday, immobilizing public transit across the country as the first general strike in more than 20 years began.

The walkout was called by unions angry at President Emmanuel Macron's pension reforms (not unlike how a planned - then scrapped - gas tax hike sparked the giles jaunes).

The biggest industrial action of Macron's tenure is, so far, staggering in scale: 50% of French teachers are off work, nine out of ten trains were cancelled and eleven of the fourteen underground lines in Paris are closed. A total of 245 separate demonstrations have been announced across France as students, firefighters, healthcare workers and others joining in. Strikes at Air France forced a wave of flight cancellations, leaving thousands of travelers scrambling for a workaround. Air France cancelled 30% of its domestic flights and 10% of international short- and medium-haul flights on Thursday, RT reports.
Got corn? From a 2014 NASA press release.
Data from satellite sensors show that during the Northern Hemisphere's growing season, the Midwest region of the United States boasts more photosynthetic activity than any other spot on Earth, according to NASA and university scientists.
In other words sucks up more CO2 and releases more O2 than even the Amazon. 

Global Warming Smacks The US -- December 5, 2019

Link here.

Another Phenomenal Jobs Report; Recession Is Just Around The Corner; Better Late Than Never -- The Road To California -- December 5, 2019

First-tie jobless claims, link here; claims come in well under what was forecast:
  • prior: 213K
  • consensus forecast: 218K
  • actual: 203K
Gasoline demand, link here:

The Road To California

Had it not been for California, the US would have become a net exporter of crude oil quite some time ago. 

From my note of January 2, 2016:
The most recent EIA energy analysis of California was a year ago. It will be updated January 21, 2016. The last EIA analysis (2015; most recent data, 2014):
I had completely forgotten about the EIA California update. Here is the most current EIA California profile, dated November 15, 2018

I was trying to sort out why the US is still importing oil from the Mideast and South America. From the profile:
California refiners process large volumes of foreign and Alaskan crude oil received at the state's ports.
As crude oil production in California and Alaska has declined, California refineries have become increasingly dependent on imports to meet the state's needs.
Led by Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, and Colombia, foreign suppliers now provide more than half of the crude oil refined in California.
Transportation dominates California's energy consumption profile. More motor vehicles are registered in California than in any other state, and commute times in California are among the longest in the country.
The state also accounts for one-fifth of the nation's jet fuel consumption.
California ranks third in the nation in petroleum refining capacity after Texas and Louisiana, and the state accounts for one-tenth of the total U.S. refining capacity.
From December 6, 2018:
Today, the EIA announced that for the first time in 75 years, the US was a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products.

In fact, if one were to "back out" California imports of crude oil, the US would have become a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum before now.

This graphic comes from the state of California, pay particular attention to 2001:

Three Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Today -- December 5, 2019

WTI: at $58.91, trending towards $60. For California commuters, Brent is trending toward $64.  

Active rigs:

Active Rigs5662533964

Three wells coming off the confidential list today -- Thursday, December 5, 2019: 16 for the month; 221 for the quarter:
  • 36450, SI/NC, WPX, Badger 22-21HIL, Squaw Creek, no production data,
  • 35611, 1,596, Hess, RS-Flickertail-156-91-1720H-4, Ross, t6/19; cum 81K 10/19; 23K month;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
  • 35536, 675, Oasis, Om Erickson 5501 11-18 4B, Missouri Ridge, t6/19; cum 94K 10/19; 21K month;
DateOil RunsMCF Sold

RBN Energy: disappearing arbs and harder times for some third-party oil shippers.
A little over a year ago, we discussed the rapidly expanding third-party shipper market for crude oil in West Texas. At the time, crude at Midland was trading at nearly a $15/bbl discount to Gulf Coast markets. Pipeline space out of the Permian was hard to come by and extremely valuable, and everybody and their brother — literally, in some cases — were forming a limited liability corporation and trying to secure space as a walk-up, “lottery” shipper. A lot of people made a lot of money, but now, just over a year later, much of that lottery opportunity has dried up. Nowadays, these same folks are looking for new opportunities, or going back to old strategies, only to find that being a third-party shipper today is more expensive and more burdensome. In today’s blog, we recap how lottery shippers made buckets of money in late 2018 and early 2019, only to see their target of opportunity dry up due to midstream investment.