Thursday, December 5, 2019

Another Phenomenal Jobs Report; Recession Is Just Around The Corner; Better Late Than Never -- The Road To California -- December 5, 2019

First-tie jobless claims, link here; claims come in well under what was forecast:
  • prior: 213K
  • consensus forecast: 218K
  • actual: 203K
Gasoline demand, link here:


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The Road To California

Had it not been for California, the US would have become a net exporter of crude oil quite some time ago. 

From my note of January 2, 2016:
The most recent EIA energy analysis of California was a year ago. It will be updated January 21, 2016. The last EIA analysis (2015; most recent data, 2014):
I had completely forgotten about the EIA California update. Here is the most current EIA California profile, dated November 15, 2018

I was trying to sort out why the US is still importing oil from the Mideast and South America. From the profile:
California refiners process large volumes of foreign and Alaskan crude oil received at the state's ports.
As crude oil production in California and Alaska has declined, California refineries have become increasingly dependent on imports to meet the state's needs.
Led by Saudi Arabia, Ecuador, and Colombia, foreign suppliers now provide more than half of the crude oil refined in California.
Transportation dominates California's energy consumption profile. More motor vehicles are registered in California than in any other state, and commute times in California are among the longest in the country.
The state also accounts for one-fifth of the nation's jet fuel consumption.
California ranks third in the nation in petroleum refining capacity after Texas and Louisiana, and the state accounts for one-tenth of the total U.S. refining capacity.
From December 6, 2018:
Today, the EIA announced that for the first time in 75 years, the US was a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products.

In fact, if one were to "back out" California imports of crude oil, the US would have become a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum before now.

This graphic comes from the state of California, pay particular attention to 2001:

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