Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Activity In MRO's Wadholm Area? -- September 19, 2017

A nice MRO well is off-line suggesting some activity in the neighboring area. See this post.

Williston State College Hits Record Enrollment -- Again

The Williston Herald, data points:
  • fourth straight quarter for setting enrollment records
  • 1,098 registered students; up 6% year-over-year
  • enrollment driven by scholarship program
  • Williams County Graduate Scholarship, launched in 2015, offers up to two  years of free guition for graduates of any Williams County high school, regardless of when they graduated
  • 2016: Regional County Scholarship Program launched; extended the program to graduates from Burke, Divide, McKenzie, and Mountrail counties
  • 2017: program extended to five counties in eastern Montana: Daniels, Richland, Roosevelt, Sheridan and Valley counties
  • 201 Williams County and 78 Regional County scholarships: $674,530
  • housing scholarship added this fall
  • occupancy rate for the school's four dorms is now nearly 82%
From an earlier post:
The scholarship money is coming from the Alva J Field Trust, WSC Foundation and the N.D. Higher Ed Challenge Fund, which was made to stimulate the spirit of philanthropy for North Dakota's colleges and universities. The fund allows for every $2 in eligible private donations to be matched with $1 of state funding. 

3Q17 GDP Forecast Unchanged -- Remains At A Disappointing 2.2% -- September 19, 2017

GDP Now's latest forecast:
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2017 is 2.2 percent on September 19, unchanged from September 15.
The forecast of third-quarter real residential investment growth is -2.6 percent, virtually unchanged from last Friday, after this morning's new residential construction release from the U.S. Census Bureau.
The forecast of the contribution of net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth declined from -0.11 percentage points to -0.16 percentage points after this morning's Import/Export Price Indexes release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

WTI Can't Hold Above $50 -- Saudi Arabia Will Struggle -- September 19, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs553267196182

Eleven (11) new permits:
  • Operators: NP Resources (6); Petro Harvester (5)
  • Fields: Cinnamon Creek (McKenzie County); Portal (Burke County)
  • Comments: NP has permits for a 6-well pad in 26-145-102; 
Four permits renewed:
  • EOG (2): two Austin permits in Mountrail County
  • Cornerstone: one Tafelmeyer permit in Burke County
  • Murex: one Emu permit in Renville County

The Political Page, Part 2, T+242 -- September 19, 2017 -- The Flat Earth Society Will Now Come To Order

Smart move: Valero won't bid for California crude oil terminal -- would have faced costly legal battle with the state.
The Valero Energy petroleum company says it is giving up plans to acquire the last independently owned petroleum terminal in the San Francisco Bay Area.
Valero said in a statement Monday that it is dropping its purchase of the Martinez petroleum terminal hub rather than wage a long court battle over it.
California Attorney General had sued to block the transaction ... said Valero's purchase of the Plains All American Pipeline facility would have put all three Northern California petroleum-shipping hubs in the hands of refineries.
He says that would have stifled competition and might have raised gas prices.
Making America great: from that alt-right site, food stamp usage has fallen every month of the Trump presidency.

A colder, earlier winter -- Farmer's Almanac. Montana/Wyoming weren't the only states to see early now. Now, pretty much unprecedented, Oregon got its first bit of snow on the last day of summer:
Timberline Lodge is getting a dose of winter weather – in September.
Several inches of snow have fallen at Timberline Lodge since Monday morning.
Meteorologists say this type of weather is unusual this time of year.
Usually the lodge sees sticking snows in October, not before the first day of fall.
The snow begins about halfway up Timberline Road and it quickly turns to thick, slippery conditions a couple miles from the lodge.
Massive Arctic ice gain over the past five years despite atmospheric CO2 rising. From the deplorables, Arctic sea ice extent is up 40% from this date five years ago. From the map at the site, it appears the "northwest passage" is blocked once again.

The Flat Earth Society Meeting Is Now In Session

Based on a new study, it appears he DOES have time. What a doofus.

Agenda for the meeting: Climate change not as threatening to planet as previously thought, new research suggests -- The [London] Telegraph
Climate change poses less of an immediate threat to the planet than previously thought because scientists got their modelling wrong.
New research by British scientists reveals the world is being polluted and warming up less quickly than 10-year-old forecasts predicted, giving countries more time to get a grip on their carbon output.
An unexpected “revolution” in affordable renewable energy has also contributed to the more positive outlook. Experts now say there is a two-in-three chance of keeping global temperatures within 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, the ultimate goal of the 2015 Paris Agreement.
A "thank you" to a reader for sending me the idea for this post. The premise is still wrong -- that climate change is man-made -- but at least we have been given more hope that all is not lost.

The Literary Page
It looks like a great day for reading.

I started Dracula (again) last night -- I've never gotten more than just a few pages in. It's such an incredibly well-written book, I tend to linger and re-read passages.

I will also read a short monograph Twentieth Century Interpretation of Wuthering Heights, edited by Thomas A Vogler, c. 1968.

Arriving from Amazon today will be two books on Casanova and Venice, having ordered them after taking in the Casanova exhibit at the Kimbell Art Museum last week.

From Dracula, new words:
  • diligence: a stagecoach used in France and England during the 1700s and 1800s
  • St George's eve: from wiki, St George's Day was a major feast and national holiday in England on a par with Christmas from the early 15th century; April 23, May 6, a moveable feast; at the time considered the most dangerous night of the year; folks were terrified of vampires on this night; vampires most active on eves of St George's Day and St Andrews' Day
  • leiter-wagon: a peasant wagon
  • calèche: drawn by one horse; for two passengers, with driver on own seat on/above the splash board
Will be continued elsewhere.

The Energy And Market Page, Part 2, T+242 -- September 19, 2017 -- The Trump Rally Keeps On Trumping -- UN Speech Best Ever According To Some

More records. All three indices on track to hit all-time highs in late afternoon trading. 

  • new highs, 162, including: Andeavor (Tesoro); Berkshire, B & A (whoopee); Boeing, CAT, Phillipos 66 (whoopee); RDS, B & A (whoopee)
  • new lows, 17
Strange bedfellows: Kohl's will now pack and ship eligible items back to Amazon fulfillment centers. The same service is available at Whole Foods grocery stores, announced when Amazon acquired that grocery store chain.

Bye-bye? Nope, buy-buy. CNBC contributor had it exactly right today -- whether GOP repeals ObamaCare or whether it doesn't, investing in US health care companies is a no-brainer. Bottom line for him regarding health care investments: buy-buy. Buy if ObamaCare is "repealed" (wink, wink); buy if ObamaCare survives a GOP vote to repeal. I've said the same thing for months.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, travel, job, or relationship decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

The Whiting Wold Wells In Sand Creek Oil Field

New permits added May 17, 2018, SESE 1-153-97;
  • 34914, SI/NC, Whiting, Wold Federal, Sand Creek,
  • 34915, SI/NC, Whiting, Wold Federal
  • 34916, SI/NC, Whiting, Wold Federal
The Whiting Wold wells in Sand Creek, will run west to east, ending in section 5-153-96:
  • 33481, 1,748, Whiting, Wold Federal 42-1-1H, Sand Creek, t9/18; cum 211K 5/20; intermittent starting 6/20;
  • 33469, 1,757, Whiting, Wold Federal 42-1-1TFH, Sand Creek, t10/18; cum 130K 6/20; off line as of 12/18; back on line 3/19; only 19 days, 7/20;
  • 33470, 1,833, Whiting, Wold Federal 42-1-2H, Sand Creek, t9/18; cum 197K 7/20; only 12 days 7/20;
  • 33471, 2,387, Whiting, Wold Federal 42-1-2TFH, Sand Creek, t8/18; cum 202K 7/20;
  • 33472, 1,953, Whiting, Wold Federal 42-1-3H, Sand Creek, t8/18; cum 128K 7/20; off line 1/19;

  • 33485, 2,522, Whiting, Wold Federal 43-1-1TFH, Sand Creek, t8/18; cum 205K 7/20; intermittent since 5/20;
  • 33484, 1,583, Whiting, Wold Federal 43-1-1H, Sand Creek, t9/18; cum 207K 1/20;
  • 33483, 2,387, Whiting, Wold Federal 43-1-2TFH, Sand Creek, t8/18; cum 82K 1/20; mostly off line as well is getting put on pump, etc; or, recent neighboring fracks;
  • 33482, 2,493, Whiting, Wold Federal 43-1-2H, Sand Creek, t9/18; cum 289K 1/20;

  • 34661, drl/A, Whiting, Wold Federal 44-1-1TFH, Sand Creek, t--; cum 82K 7/20; a 34K month; see this note;

Producing well
  • 18787, AB/IA/801, Whiting, Sorenson Federal 15-5H, Sand Creek, 24 stages; 3 million lbs, large/small sand and ceramic, t1/11; cum 144K 3/18; went off-line as of 12/17;

The graphic:

The Energy And Market Page, T+242 -- September 19, 2017

From the September, 2017, CLR corporate presentation. Link here for presentations.

First, look at the breakeven price for crude oil in the Bakken:

Then, look at how the DAPL affected takeaway capacity in the Bakken:

Again? It looks like the market may open at new highs in a couple of hours. In the old days, a 75-point rise in the Dow 30, as it did yesterday, would have been noteworthy. Now 75 points barely represents a third of a percent. In fact, one of my personal favorite portfolios actually dropped slightly yesterday despite the fact the market rose. It concerned me until I checked the reason why. Shares in a couple of companies had risen quickly over the past two weeks, and a bit of profit-taking explained the slight drop. The point of all this: any rise or fall in the Dow 30 of 100 points is simply a "flat day" in the big scheme of things. Having said that, 100 points in the "green" is always better than 100 points in the "red."

Toys "R" Us: files for bankruptcy. No link, story everywhere.

EVs. Why switching to fully electric cars will take time -- BBC. It looks like all that talk about EVs is code for: a) hybrids; b) hybrids; c) hybrids. I think of several reasons why the switch will "take time," starting with consumer demand. What does the BBC say?
  • conventional the ICE (gasoline and diesel) is not going away
  • the definition of "electrified" automobile: more and more it simply means 25-mile-EV-Prius-hybrid range (which does not need to be plugged in to re-charge)
  • a mild hybrid is effectively a conventional car, using a small electric engine to take over while an automobile is idling at stoplights
  • huge infrastructure still required to meet needs of true EVs
  • a lot of batteries will be required to meet needs of true EVs
Actually, the article was a bust. Save yourself some time; don't read it. The article simply reiterated what you already know and said it fairly poorly, considering this was BBC.

The Political Page, T+242 -- September 19, 2017

The art of the deal: "we" give up a dozen Confederate statues and, in return, we "get" ten national monuments in exchange

Priorities? In 2005, the FTC blocks Blockbuster from buying Hollywood Video. Today, it is announced that Walgreens wins FTC's okay to buy 1,932 Rite Aids stores. As far as I know, Blockbuster and Hollywood Video are no longer around.

Cracking up. Hillary Clinton says she may challenge the 2016 election results. I assume the challenge will begin in California, and then skip Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and head directly to New York. One assumes the challenge will raise a lot of money for the Foundation.

Walls. Hollywood elites have them. The Obamas have one. UC-Berkeley had one. Even the Chinese have one. It seems it's "okay" for everyone to put up protective walls except Trump. Latest example: Hungary. From one of those alt-right sites, Hungary builds a wall, cuts illegal immigration by over 99%." Over 99% is, like, almost 100%, or total control.
Hungary has slashed illegal immigration by over 99 per cent after rolling out a series of powerful border fences in response to the European migrant crisis, possibly providing a lesson as to the potential impact of constructing President Trump’s much-discussed southern wall in the U.S.
Speaking on the second anniversary of the government’s move to seal Hungary’s border with Serbia — which is also an external border for the European Union — Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Chief Security Advisor, György Bakondi, announced that the fences have caused illegal immigration to collapse from 391,000 in 2015, to 18,236 in 2016, to just 1,184 in 2017.
A huge "thank you" to a reader for sending me the link. The reader also noted that the #1 "open-borders" proponent is a Hungarian, George Soros.

Also this little tidbit from the same reader: four companies have been chosen to built prototypes for "Trump's wall." The four are listed at this site. One of them is Fisher Sand & Gravel Co., DBA Fisher Industries, of Tempe, Arizona. Fisher Sand & Gravel Co. of Dickinson is now wholly owned by the Fisher Industries. Fisher Sand and Gravel is one of the top 25 sand and gravel companies in the United States, with operations in Arizona, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota South Dakota, New Mexico and Wyoming.

WTI May Open Above $50 -- And Trending Higher -- September 10, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs563267196182

RBN Energy: possible scenarios for the 2017- 18 natural gas market withdrawal season.

How did I miss this? Worth re-posting:
Four companies have been chosen to built prototypes for "Trump's wall." The four are listed at this site. One of them is Fisher Sand & Gravel Co., DBA Fisher Industries, of Tempe, Arizona.
Fisher Sand & Gravel Co. of Dickinson is wholly owned by the Fisher Industries. Fisher Sand and Gravel is one of the top 25 sand and gravel companies in the United States, with operations in Arizona, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota South Dakota, New Mexico and Wyoming.
WTI: $50 and trending higher. OPEC sticks to cuts. A weaker dollar also helps.

Boom! World's biggest wealth fund hits $1 trillion. Quick! Without looking, what country. Spoiler alert: Norway. Norway's sovereign wealth fund hit $1 trillion for the first time Tuesday (today), driven higher by climbing stock markets and a weaker US dollar.
The fund’s sheer size has made it a challenge to find markets big enough to invest in. Meanwhile, Norway’s politicians are finding it hard to resist the temptation to raid the world’s biggest state piggy bank, with the petro-dollar addiction threatening to overheat the $400 billion economy.
Unwind: markets concerned that the Fed's unwinding could hurt the market. Perhaps Norway will soak up what the Fed unwinds.

Mideast deal: Russia's Rosneft clinches gas pipeline deal with Iraq's Kurdistan.

Perspective. Some folks are wringing their hands over thousand-dollar-iPhones. Let's put that into perspective. From The Wall Street Journal earlier this week: some New York city K-12 schools cross $50,000-a-year mark. Parents are increasingly concerned that "these schools are dominated by the city's most affluent families." As I commented at the WSJ the other day regarding the price of the new iPhone X, folks have no idea how much money is out there.

By the way, for the record, I've seen few negative comments over at Macrumors regarding the price of the new iPhone. The biggest decision folks were struggling with was whether to buy the $80 iPhone 8 Plus or the slightly more expensive iPhone X.