Thursday, March 9, 2017

Two More Bakken DUCs Reported -- March 9, 2017

Active rigs:

Active Rigs4433114191187

Wells coming off confidential list Friday:
  • 31399, SI/NC, EOG, Van Hook 36-35H, Parshall, no production data,
  • 32459, SI/NC, Hess, BB-Federal 151-95-1708H-10, Blue Buttes, no production data,
Seven (7) new permits:
  • Operators: WPX (6), Crescent Point Energy
  • Fields: Reunion Bay (Mountrail), Dublin (Williams)
  • Comments:
Two permits renewed:
  • Oasis: a McCauley permit in Williams County
  • Whiting: an Armas permit in Mountrail County

It Never Quits -- March 9, 2017

More on the $20 billion / 45,000 jobs ExxonMobil plans to invest along the Gulf Coast:
  • "Growing the Gulf"
  • will build eleven (11) chemical, refining, lubricant and LNG liquefaction projects in Texas and Louisiana
BP, a natural gas company? at that link:
  • a switch to natural gas? BP plans to expand its natural gas production from 50% to 60% 
  • BP announced "massive" natural gas projects for "the year" including one in the West Nile Delta in Egypt
  • "everybody" is leaving the Canadian sands as fast as they can, and
  • "everybody" is salivating over the Permian

Fight's On! -- March 9, 2017

From SeekingAlpha but reported almost everywhere:
  • Senior Saudi energy officials told top U.S. oil companies this week that they should not assume OPEC would extend production curbs to offset rising production from U.S. shale fields, Reuters reports.
  • Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said this week that there would be no "free rides" for U.S. shale producers, and senior advisors reportedly went a step further at the meeting on Tuesday in saying that OPEC would not "take the hit" for the rise in U.S. shale production.
Let's see:
  • global production: 100 million bbls / day (rounding in the land of big numbers)
  • rising US shale production, growth: 1 to 2 million bbls / day
Cry me a river.

The data shows that OPEC shipped more oil in February than January, two months into the "OPEC cut."

Cry Me A River, Mad Dogs and Englishmen

Fight's On

This is sort of interesting.

When the Saudis announced they were going to flood the global market with oil, it was a bit unclear what Saudi was up to. Saudi Arabia said they were protecting their market share: their enemies? Fellow OPEC members with unconstrained production. On the other hand a lot of folks thought Saudi Arabia was out to "break" the US shale industry, which the Saudis denied.

This time around the charade is over. Saudi Arabia, it appears, has explicitly notified the US shale industry that the kingdom won't stand idly by if the US shale industry "tries" to take advantage of the OPEC cuts.

It certainly seems Saudi Arabia does not understand how the market works.

One more thing: Saudi Arabia could be treading on very thin ice. President Trump and many others are very much in support of a border-adjustment tax, i.e., a tax on imported oil. President Obama suggested the same thing: $10/bbl on imported oil. 

The Red Queen Revisited -- March 9, 2017

This is so incredibly amazing, and no one has brought it up yet, at least not on an ad-free, subscription-free Bakken blog.

This is from yesterday's Director's Cut, the production data from January, 2017, posted earlier. See if you can see what I'm talking about. There will be one main point, and then a secondary point, reinforcing the first point, if that makes sense. Here's the data:
  • January, 2017: 980,294 bopd
  • December, 2016: 942,322
  • Delta: 37,972 bopd
  • Delta: 4.0% increase month-over-month
  • 95% production comes from the Bakken and the Three Forks
  • 5% production comes from legacy conventional pools
Producing wells
  • January, 2017: 13,333 (all-time high was November, 2016, at 13,520)
  • December, 2016: 13,337
Rig count
  • up five from February to today (March 8, 2017)
  • February, 2017: 39
  • January, 2017: 38
  • December, 2016: 40
Completed wells not producing
  • DUCs, estimated: 802, down 5 from the end of December to the end of January
  • inactive well count, estimated: 1,678, up 105 from the end of December to the end of January
This is what popped out at me from the data:
  • month-over-month, North Dakota crude oil production increased by close to 5% rounding up (or 4% if rounding down) -- 5% is an easier number for me to remember, even if it's inflated a bit. Okay, so what? 
This is the "so what": the number of producing wells actually decreased from 13,337 to 13,333.

Yes, I know, the decrease was statistically inconsequential. But the headline could be this: North Dakota crude oil production increases 5% even as the number of producing oil wells decreased, month-over-month. Wow.

The number of rigs, by the way, has become irrelevant when comparing production year-over-year, or decade-over-decade, for multiple reasons. In the Bakken there was a time when production was less than a million bopd and yet there were more than 200 active rigs. Now, there are months when production goes over 1 million bopd and the number of active rigs drop below 45.

Is anyone talking about the Red Queen and more? The Red Queen that we were told was going to fall off her treadmill once the drilling stopped?

So, the first point: despite the dreaded Bakken decline, production actually increased significanly last month despite a drop in the number of actively producing wells.

But then look at the secondary point: the number of inactive wells increased significantly: 7% by my calculations. The number of inactive wells, month-over-month in North Dakota, by my calculations, decreased by 7%, and yet production increased by 4%.

Yes, I already know the counter-argument so don't bother to send a comment: I don't want facts to confuse my inappropriate exuberance about the Bakken.

But there you have it:
  • fewer rigs (from 200 to 40) -- rigs would have to double, then double again, to get back to 160 rigs
  • fewer producing wells (barely)
  • more inactive (shut-in, previously and recently -- in many cases -- producing wells)
and, yet, production increases. 

Three more points.

First, production from a new well is front-loaded; anywhere from a fifth to fourth of the well's EUR might be produced in the first six to twelve months, so all those DUCs waiting to be fracked will deliver a huge number.

Second, today's wells / DUCs have production numbers that are 1.5 to 2 to 3 times better than their counterparts at the beginning of the Bakken boom. Even if the DUCs / new wells were no better than the wells back in 2007, in the aggregate (800 DUCs) would bring in a lot more production. But these DUCs are going to be so much better, that in the aggregate, the amount of production is going to be much greater.

Third, one can argue that the wells that are shut-in are "poorer-performing" wells. I doubt anyone has that data but going through the wells day in and day out I see as many potentially "great" wells shut in as "likely" poor wells. Many of the wells that are shut in are multiple wells on the same pad because neighboring wells are being fracked or there is a work-over rig on site. Wells that are shut in are not being shut in (necessarily) because they are poor performers.

Some folks think that once the DAPL starts flowing, we'll see an increase in production simply because the lower cost of transportation will incentivize operators to bring more wells on line. We'll see.

Disclaimer: this not has not been proofread; there will be typographical and factual errors.

The Political Page, T+48 -- March 9, 2017

From Amazon, two #1 best sellers -- a book and a perfume -- just in time for St Patrick's Day, a week from Friday.


On the very day that the new EPA chief questions the role of carbon in "warming the planet," Scott Adams raised the same question. Who's gonna get more respect: a Trump appointee or a cartoonist? LOL.

Moose Move In -- March 9, 2017

My brother always talked about seeing moose along the river bottom on the south side of the Missouri, southwest of Williston, after crossing the Lewis & Clark Bridge. I looked often but never saw them. Maybe I need to go back and look again. The Williston Herald is reporting that the moose are moving in; the population increase has led to more hunting licenses.

A photograph at the link shows a calf in the backyard of a home on Sixth Avenue West in Williston in late January. Sixth avenue west? Depending on which cross street, that's pretty close to where I lived when growing up in Williston. We lived on the corner of 17th Street and 9th avenue, a development that grew with the first of several North Dakota oil booms.

Apparently moose populations are declining in northeast North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, for which there is no explanation provided. And we're not talking a few numbers. In one "block of aerial surveillance" more than 220 moose were counted. In some areas, surveys revealed an 86% increase in moose populations.

Hunting area M10 (Moose-10) was divided into two sections:
  • M10: Divide, Burke and portions of Bottineau, Mountrail, Renville, Ward, and Williams counties north of Highway 2. 
  • M11: portions of Dunn, McKenzie, Mercer, McClain, Mountrail, Ward, and Williams counties, south of Highway 2.
I wish they would have used the south side / north side of the river as the dividing lines for the two hunting areas. Natural boundaries, when it comes to hunting, always seem more "natural."

Tags for the "big three" -- moose, elk, and bighorn sheep -- are "once-in-a-lifetime tags" in North Dakota. This year's deadline to apply is March 22. 

The Market And Energy Page, T+48; Shock And Awe -- Fight Is On! -- March 9, 2017

The Close

A last minute "save." The Dow squeaked out a 3-point gain; WTI recovered to $49 and change. 

Early Afternoon

WTI: down $1.37 and now trading below $49. The previous floor was thought to be $50. Is the new floor $45? The equity market seems to be taking it in stride; the Dow is down about 25 points, again, inconsequential after the huge run-up over the past few months. 


WTI: down $1.15; barely above $49.
  • yesterday, crude oil stocks rose by 8.2 million bbls, which I believe is the three consecutive week of nearly double-digit rise
  • the rise set a new all-time record in US crude oil stocks: 528.4 million bbls and this does not include the SPR which the government is now selling off (in line with usual government policies to buy high, sell low)

Dow: up 20 points; minimally affected by oil rout.


Jobs: first time claims jump more than expected Jumps 20,000 to 243,000. Forecast for 238,000 from the prior week's reading of 223,000, the lowest count since March, 1973. Four-week moving average came in at 236,500, an uptick of 2,250. The rise this week completely offsets the 19,000 drop one week ago.

Dow futures just turned green. Opening: up 8 points on the Dow. WTI at $49.76 -- the big story today.

WTI flirting with $49. Oil plunges in price. Harold Hamm: industry "binge" can "kill" oil market.
Harold Hamm, the billionaire shale oilman, said the U.S. industry could "kill" the oil market if it embarks into another spending binge, a rare warning in a business focused on fast growth to compete with OPEC.
ObamaCare: if folks remember, ObamaCare was a three-legged stool -- a) the corporate mandate; b) the individual mandate; and, c) the medical device tax. Overnight, Congress repealed the medical device tax; it was bipartisan -- even Elizabeth Warren was against this tax. Obviously she's a tool of the medical device sector in Boston. EW never saw tax she didn't like -- except ...  So, the tax on medical devices leg killed; the individual mandate killed (by executive order the IRS will not penalize filers for not enrolling in a health care plan; the corporate mandate being worked.

Staples: in deep, deep trouble. Down 8% yesterday; down another 2% today. Folks should have seen this in May, 2016, with the failed Home Depot - Staples merger. There are only two reasons why big companies merge, impending failure is one of the reasons. Too bad US regulators couldn't see that. But for investors, an open-book test.

South border crossings usually spike in February/March. In February, crossings have dropped 40%. Folks don't like paying $5,000 to cross border illegally just to risk being sent back immediately. Homeland Security says the number of apprehensions (a proxy for border crossings) the lowest in five years.

Fight is on: US Marines will crush ISIS capital, Raqqa, this week. When US Marines move in with "triple-7" they mean business. How will we know that ISIS is defeated in Syria? Oh, I think we will know.

Best business news show: Stu Varney. Great format. Stole idea from late-night talk shows. Johnny Carson had his Ed McMahon. Stu Varney has his Liz MacDonald. Stu does it one better with the incredibly good Ashley Webster who can host the show on his own when Stu takes a day off.  Look how Ashley got his start with with US network / cable television:
Webster began his journalism career at NBC affiliate KTVH-TV in Helena, Montana, where he worked as a news director. Before that, he had spent 6 years in London, working for the Bank of Montreal and Lloyds Bank.
Too Good Not To Report
For The Granddaughters

Barcelona soccer: greatest comeback in European soccer history

Fight Is On! -- March 9, 2017; US Marine Artillery Division In Syria; ISIS Capital Under Seige; ISIS Fighters Fleeing


October 22, 2017: US-backed troops take Syria's largest oil field from ISIS.

October 14, 2017: Raqqa about to fall to US-led coalition.

September 29, 2017: Iraqi forces close in on Islamic State stronghold. Iraqi forces started an assault on the city of Hawija in a dawn offensive on Friday, part of their effort to rout Islamic State militants from their two remaining strongholds in the country. Iraqi forces have already retaken more than 100 villages on the approach to Hawija, which lies in the northern province of Kirkuk, after launching a campaign for the city last week. Friday’s offensive marks the second phase of the operation.
Islamic State’s only other major stronghold in the country is in the western province of Anbar, where Iraqi forces recently began an operation to drive the militants out of desert terrain near the border with Syria.

September 17, 2017: Iraqi Forces drive out Islamic State from town near Syria border. Recapture of Akashat helps secure newly reopened border crossing with Jordan. Iraqi forces drove Islamic State militants from an area in the western desert near the borders with Syria and Jordan on Saturday, making further inroads into the group’s last remaining territory in the country. Iraqi commanders said security forces and allied paramilitaries had faced little resistance from the militants in Akashat, attributing that to the extremist group’s low morale after two major defeats in recent months including the loss of its stronghold Mosul.

September 10, 2017: update on ISIS -- hiding in a valley between Iraq and Syria.

September 7, 2017: ISIS defeated in Syria. President Bashar al-Assad has advantage; next up to bat -- the US-led Kurds.

September 6, 2017: from The WSJ, Syrian Army makes major advance on city under Islamic State siege. The Syrian regime deals extremist group a setback in one of its most important remaining strongholds
The Syrian army broke a three-year Islamic State siege in the eastern city of Deir Ezzour on Tuesday, handing the extremist group a significant setback in one of its most important remaining strongholds.
The regime’s advance adds to the pressure on Islamic State fighters in surrounding Deir Ezzour province, which many of the group’s leaders fled to as it came under attack and lost territory across Syria and Iraq over the past year.
The Syrian military has been moving toward the city of Deir Ezzour for weeks. The U.S. and Russia, Syria’s main ally, agreed recently on a plan to avoid clashes between the regime and the U.S.-led coalition fighting Islamic State, which is currently battling the extremists in the neighboring province of Raqqa to the north.
September 3, 2017: US-backed Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces have taken about 60% of the city of Raqqa. One reader is waiting to see if Paul Ryan will criticize President Trump for this.

August 27, 2017: cornered in Tal Afar -- the last days of ISIS. The Wall Street Journal. Iraqi Forces seize Tal Afar from Islamic State. Tal Afar was one of extremist group’s few remaining strongholds in the country.
Iraqi forces have driven Islamic State from the symbolic town of Tal Afar, the Iraqi military said Sunday, clearing one of the extremist group’s few remaining strongholds in the country.
Operations continued against the militants in a handful of surrounding villages, a military statement said. Army officials said Saturday night that they were nearly in full control of Tal Afar’s historic center, moving toward the northern neighborhoods still held by Islamic State.
The surprisingly swift conclusion comes just one week into the battle for Tal Afar, which once served as a way station between the group’s de facto capitals Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa in Syria.
As U.S.-backed Iraqi forces penetrated Tal Afar, it became clear that Islamic State fighters either had abandoned the city ahead of the battle to seek refuge elsewhere, or had lay down their weapons to blend in with the local population. 

August 26, 2017: cornered in Raqqa -- the last days of ISIS. The Wall Street Journal
Raqqa has been a crucial part of the terror group’s self-declared caliphate. Until a few months ago, public squares were lined with decomposing bodies of those who had run afoul of Islamic State’s religious rules or bureaucracy.
Fighters for the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, which is leading the assault to oust Islamic State from Raqqa, say on some days they have helped dozens of civilians reach safety. Other days, no one makes it out. Militants execute smugglers helping civilians flee and those accused of collaborating with the U.S.-led coalition.
The Pentagon has estimated there are fewer than 2,500 Islamic State militants left in the city, down from about 4,500.
August 20, 2017: Just a month ago, I wrote:
Off the radar scope, the current allied military push on the ISIS capital of Raqqa (Raqqah). Iraqi news service reported a week or so ago that the allies had re-taken Mosul, the most important city held by ISIS at the time.
Tonight, The Los Angeles Times is reporting:
Fresh off their victory in Mosul, Iraqi forces Sunday launched their campaign to reclaim the city of Tall Afar, Islamic State’s last major bastion in the northern part of the country.
Its loss would deny the group a major resupply — or escape — route to the border with Syria, 60 miles to the west. The jihadis have long been able to cross the border with impunity.

Original Post

Most important international event going on right now, not being reported: Raqqa.

First, for background, an earlier post. From that post, regarding Raqqa:
Caliphate (ISIS may or may not hold these cities); all to the northeast of Damascus, or north of Baghdad
  • Aleppo: Syria
  • Raqqa: Syria (currently held by ISIS) (on the Euphrates River); capital cityof ISIS -- self-declared; about 80 miles due east (slightly southeast) of Aleppo)
  • Manbij: on road to Raqqa in Syria; "allies" re-take Manbij, August, 2016
  • Mosul: back and for between ISIS and Kurds; on the Tigris
  • Tikrit: midway between Mosul and Baghdad; on the Tigris
  • Ramadi: on the Euphrates, west of Baghdad, west of Falujah
  • Fallujah: on the Euphrates, between Ramadi and Baghdad
Some data points to keep in mind:
  • President Trump moves quickly
  • President Trump keeps his campaign promises (others may put up obstacles, but he, at least, is doing what he said he would be doing)
  • political trope: at least one foreign country will test a new American president in the first 100 days
  • President Trump took the offensive and "tested" several countries in his first thirty days (China, Mexico, Canada), and then within the first sixty days, ISIS (see below)
    • China: first phone call -- with Taiwan president
    • Mexico: trade, wall
    • Canada: trade
  • it appears Trump is leaving warfighting to his generals; has anyone seen a Trump tweet on military action?
US Marine artillery moved into Syria; attacking the "capital of Isis":
"US Marine artillery moving into Syria means we will crush them. Fast in, fast out. Crush them; move in, fast move out fast. Marines don't stick around; no nation building. In support role; artillery can sit back 10 kilometers; not on front lines; support role; ISIS will be crushed in Raqqa." -- Republican Congressman former US Marine (or Army?) artillery officer.
BBC: report from two hours ago (posted at 8:36 a.m. Central Time, March 9, 2017).
US Marines reportedly arrived in the past few days to establish an outpost from which they will be able to fire artillery at IS positions some 32km (20 miles) away. US special forces are already on the ground, advising the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) alliance. The alliance is expected to launch an assault on Raqqa in the coming weeks. Over the weekend, a separate force of elite US army Rangers was also deployed near a town north-west of Raqqa in heavily armoured vehicles, in an attempt to end clashes between SDF fighters and a Turkish-backed rebel force.
The Washington Post: huge.
The force is part of the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, which left San Diego on Navy ships in October. The Marines on the ground include part of an artillery battery that can fire powerful 155-millimeter shells from M-777 Howitzers, two officials said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the deployment.
The expeditionary unit’s ground force, Battalion Landing Team 1st Battalion, 4th Marines, will man the guns and deliver fire support for U.S.-backed local forces who are preparing an assault on the city. Additional infantrymen from the unit will provide security, while resupplies will be handled by part of the expeditionary force’s combat logistics element. For this deployment, the Marines were flown from Djibouti to Kuwait and then into Syria, said another defense official with direct knowledge of the operation.
Report: US B-52's -- Show Of Force
Response To North Korea

My quick unedited e-mail to a reader who thought it might be Minot AFB B-52's to Asia:
This may explain the "switch" announced this past week. After 12  years, Barksdale B-52 bombers ceding Mideast mission to Minot. The question is why after 12 years was decision made to switch Mideast from Barksdale to Minot.

Possibly you are correct that Minot bombers going to Asia, but also with switch it's possible the Barksdale bombers are moving to Asia and Minot moving to Mideast.

Regardless of specifics, it certainly suggests Trump has unleashed his military.

After 8 years of "no-drama Obama" we're finally seeing some movement. Trump is absolutely overwhelming Congress and the media. No one can keep up.
By the way, what a great opportunity for a two-fer. Everyone is well aware that Trump not happy with Chinese movement into the South China Sea. Moving B-52's as a show-of-force against China might not be a smart move, but moving B-52's as show of force against North Korea makes a great cover story. Something tells me that China won't like North Korea's stupidity drawing US B-52's into the region.

Update: update. I'm wrong. This is nothing new. We've been doing it for quite some time, alternating between Barksdale and Minot with regard to NOKO and SOKO. Minot Daily News

Marathon Update; To Sell Canadian Sands; To Buy Permian -- March 9, 2017


March 29, 2017: Cenovus Energy will acquire COP's 50% interest in Foster Creek Christina Lake partnership, the companies' jointly owned oil sand opererated by CVE, and the majority of COP's Deep Basin conventional assets in Alberta and British Columbia, for $14.1 billion in cash and stock.

Later, March 21, 2017: Marathon buys another 21,000 acres in the Permian; at $700 million in cash works out to about $33,000/acre.

Later, 1:42 p.m. Central Time: Market Street had this to say about MRO exiting Canada; focusing on the Permian. Spoiler alert: the market loved it.
Original Post

From E & P Industry Research.

From a press release dated today, March 9, 2017:
Marathon Oil Corporation announced today it has signed an agreement to sell its Canadian subsidiary, which includes the Company's 20 percent non-operated interest in the Athabasca Oil Sands Project (AOSP), to Shell and Canadian Natural Resources Limited for $2.5 billion in cash, excluding closing adjustments.
Marathon Oil also announced the signing of a definitive agreement to acquire approximately 70,000 net surface acres in the Permian basin from BC Operating, Inc. and other entities for $1.1 billion in cash, excluding closing adjustments. The acquisition includes 51,500 acres in the Northern Delaware basin of New Mexico, and current production of approximately 5,000 net barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed).
This is interesting because I thought I just read that Shell was selling some of its western Canadian oil sands. Yes, I did -- earlier this morning: Shell sells sands -- $7.25 billion -- Reuters.

Will use proceeds to acquire more Permian assets, data points:
  • up to 10 targets within approximately 5,000 feet of stacked pay; base case assumes up to 6 target benches
  • 70,000 net acres with 51,500 net acres in the Northern Delaware basin
  • total implied acreage cost: $14,000
  • at $55 WTI, 90% before-tax IRRs
  • primary targets: Wolfcamp and Bone Spring
  • 350  million boe of risked resource at $2.80/BOE with 630 gross company operated locations
  • 900 million boe of total resource potential with 1,700 total upside locations
  • one operated rig; will add second rig mid-year 
Now, Back To That Shell / Sands Story Linked Above

Here's the story:
Royal Dutch Shell has agreed to sell most of its Canadian oil sands assets for $7.25 billion to Canadian Natural, the company said on Thursday.
The deal also includes a joint acquisition by Shell and Canadian Natural of Marathon Oil Canada Corporation, a subsidiary of Marathon Oil, for $1.25 billion each to be paid in cash, Shell said.
Shell will sell its existing and undeveloped Canadian oil sands interests and reduce its share in the Athabasca Oil Sands Project (AOSP) to 10 percent, but it will remain as operator of the AOSP Scotford upgrader and the Quest carbon capture and storage project.

LNG: Think Egypt, India, China, Jordan -- March 9, 2017

RBN Energy: why more liquefaction capacity may be needed in less than three years.

Jordan: a new entrant -- imported as much LNG as France in 2015
Pakistan: a new entrant -- imported twice as much LNG as France in 2015
Egypt: a new entrant -- imported more LNG than India in 2015

The article starts with suggestion that current situation suggests liquefaction build-out has gotten a bit ahead of itself.

Includes a graph of global LNG imports for 2015; previously posted on the blog. New on the graph, however, is noting clearly the countries identified as "new entrants" to the LNG import global family: Egypt, Pakistan, Jordan, Poland
  • Egypt: imported more LNG than India in 2015; second only to China in LNG imports
  • Pakistan: fourth in LNG imports; behind China, Egypt, and India; imports more than twice as much as France, #6 on the list
  • Jordan: #5 on the list, ahead of France; importing about the same amount as France
  • Poland: #11 -- between (and about the same as) Indonesia and Taiwan
Other data points:
  • incremental increase in supply from:
    • Australia: 15 MTPA; now totals 44 MTPA
    • US: 3 MTPA, all of it from Cheniere Energy's first two Sabine Pass liquefaction trains in southwestern Louisiana, both of which started LNG production last year
  • anticipated growth
    • in 2015: 7%
    • going forward: perhaps not as fast growth, but by most estimates at least 4% annual growth and maybe as much as 5%
  • loser: coal
  • US plants coming on line this year:
    • Sabine Pass trains 3 and 4, each with a capacity of 4.5 MTPA
    • Dominion's Cove Point facility, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, 5.25 MTPA
  • out-years, 2018 - 2020: nine trains, combined capacity adds another 40 MTPA (compare with current Australian numbers above)
    • Sabine Pass
    • Cameron LNG
    • Freeport LNG
    • Cheniere's Corpus Christi site
    • Kinder Morgan's Savannah, GA site
  • pricing
    • US developers like Cheniere broke into the LNG market by pricing LNG at a small mark-up and a flat liquefaction fee rather than tying price of LNG to oil, the historical way of doing things
    • the plan worked, and the global market is shaken up
  • tea leaves suggest everything is favoring US producers over others

North Dakota Oil Production Up 4% Month-Over-Month -- March 9, 2017

The Bismarck Tribune also has a story on the data

Director's Cut, January, 2017, data has been published

  • January, 2017: 980,294 bopd
  • December, 2016: 942,322
  • Delta: 37,972 bopd
  • Delta: 4.0% increase month-over-month
  • 95% production comes from the Bakken and the Three Forks
  • 5% production comes from legacy conventional pools
Producing wells
  • January, 2017: 13,333 (all-time high was November, 2016, at 13,520)
  • December, 2016: 13,337
Rig count
  • up five from February to today (March 8, 2017)
  • February, 2017: 39
  • January, 2017: 38
  • December, 2016: 40
Completed wells not producing
  • DUCs, estimated: 802, down 5 from the end of December to the end of January
  • inactive well count, estimated: 1,678, up 105 from the end of December to the end of January
Takeaway capacity:
  • CBR still required
Flaring, capture rate
  • Statewide: 88%
  • Native Americans: 83%
  • Goal: 85%
Oil Panic

From a post less than a month ago:
Dennis Gartman (CNBC contributor) who said oil would never see $55 again, turned bullish this week, suggesting one could see another $6 - $8 on the upside vs only $2 to $3 on the downside.
Well, so much for that.

Will oil open below $50 this morning?
Will oil trade below $49 today? In pre-market trading, actually traded below $49 briefly
"Holy, Batman, what do we do now?" -- Saudi foreign exchange reserves
Why $50 oil  is more likely to be a ceiling than a floor: CNBC
About two weeks ago, bearish Gartman made bulllish call suggesting the floor for oil was now $55
Shale producers to increase production "despite OPEC's warning" -- Reuters
Shell sells sands -- $7.25 billion -- Reuters
Oil majors still years away from repairing balance sheets after price war -- Reuters
March: refinery demand historically at its lowest in the month of March; demand for oil, gasoline will start rising again next month and peaking through the summer months

Wire-Tap Panic

Even Lindsey Graham is now on board. Wants spy agencies to come clean.  

Presidential Tweet

A Day Without A Woman

Thousands of children shut out from school as schools closed down in northeast due to teachers' strike a day without a woman protest.

Non-participating parents who only wanted their children to go to school scrambled to find child-care alternatives.

Meanwhile, the city of Boston reports record number of folks applying to enroll in charter schools. 

High-tech industry in Silicon Valley seen as most-pro-women for hiring:
  • overall in high-tech industries: less than one-third of employees are women
  • in high-paying, technical jobs in high-tech industries: less than one-fifth of these employees are women
Whatever. One wonders how many women didn't show up for work at Apple yesterday?


Spurs epic comeback; highlights below
Wake Forest buzzer beater: this is pretty much a must-watch

Back to the Bakken

Oil rigs:

Active Rigs4533114191187

RBN Energy: why more liquefaction capacity may be needed in less than three years.

Scott Adams: how to convince skeptics that climate change is a problem. Another must-read.