Thursday, November 2, 2017

The Bakken -- Lookin' Good -- November 2, 2017 -- The Bakken "Stack"

A big "thank you" to a reader for alerting me to this article. Lots  of good info in it, from Lynn Helms. From The Dickinson Press, data points:
  • crude oil inventories dropping rapidly in North Dakota
  • expect to see $55 - $60 oil in 1Q18
  • crude oil production in North Dakota higher than expected
  • crude oil production could be up 11% from what was originally expected by the close of the biennium
  • 31,545 producing wells right now
  • enhanced oil recovery could even better maximize profit potential of the Bakken
  • how long will the Bakken last? "our grandchildren's grandchildren will be affected by the Bakken
  • at the link comments about specific counties, areas in North Dakota
    • e.g., in Bowman County, the sage grouse holding things up
  • and then this "bombshell":
Helms said his staff is studying other potential source rock beds in the state, saying that there were 14 others (in addition to the two in the Bakken and one in Spearfish) that need to be promoted.
"We anticipate the United States Geological Survey is coming back in 2020. We want all of the data to put in front of them," Helms said. "We have 17 unconventional resources. Not one, not two—17."
Stratigraphic map here.

Basic overview of the petroleum geology of the North Dakota Williston Basin


Lights on the Hill, Slim Dusty

The Energy And Market Page, Page 2, T+285, November 2, 2017 -- Heavy Truck Orders Soar

Making America great again, link here:
Orders for heavy-duty commercial trucks in North America soared in October, reaching the highest level in nearly three years as carriers riding a strong freight market stepped up plans to upgrade or expand their fleets.
Trucking companies last month ordered 36,200 Class 8 trucks, the big rigs that haul much of the nation’s freight. That was up 60.4% from September, and a 160% gain from a year ago, when truck orders plummeted amid slack shipping demand and tepid manufacturing growth.
The orders came at the beginning of the season when trucking companies typically set their fleet plans for the coming year, and signaled robust confidence in shipping demand for 2018.

Forty-Five Minutes Of ABBA Memories
After "Blade Runner 2049" I told my wife I was never going to go to another movie. LOL. But then I saw the trailer for "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri." After seeing the trailer, I told my wife that, depending on the reviews, I really want to see this movie.
Well, I've seen my first review and it looks like a winner. Can't wait to see it. In the WSJ: humor and sadness in the Ozarks. 
About 20 minutes into Martin McDonagh’s new film, Mildred, played by Frances McDormand, delivers a tongue-lashing soliloquy to the local priest. He has come by her house to warn her against taking on the powers-that-be in their small town. Her sudden rant, invoking the history of the Crips and the Bloods (don’t ask), tears the clergyman limb from limb—and leaves the audience in delight, if slightly uneasy.
For an Anglo-Irish playwright like Mr. McDonagh, it is no big stretch to take a swing at the Catholic Church. “That’s what it’s there for,” he says. “They’ve been doing it to us for years.”
That’s just one scene in “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” however, and soon he’s moved on to something different. Like the movie’s marketing-unfriendly title—“I like its clunkiness”—he’s the opposite of pandering: This writer/director does what he wants.
When I first saw the trailer, I thought it was a Coen Bros production, but apparently not. But with Frances McDormand in it, one wonders.

The Energy And Market Page, T+285, November 2, 2017

If this stock closes above $300 today I will have lost all "trust" in "money managers" in the US.

Belated "Happy Halloween"

Save this one for next year; lots of masks to choose from. By then the Obama masks (Barack and Michelle) should be "a dime a dozen."

Wow, Stealth Rally

After a slow start, the Dow closes up over 80 points. Not too shabby. Of course, who does CNBC reach out to, to discuss the tax cuts? LOL. The one in red (fittingly) on the right (unfittingly). But I do like the cosmetic jewelry around the neck on the one on the left (fittingly).

Wow, CNBC Got It Wrong On Apple -- And, Now, Trying To Save Face

Apple's earnings report is incredibly good. And yet, CNBC talking heads fairly neutral, trying to maintain their composure. Bottom line: CNBC blew it. Apple nailed it.

Later: this is almost hilarious -- the CNBC folks are so skeptical of the Apple results and yet, at the end of the day, everyone will agree, Apple blew away the forecasts. This is quite incredible on so many levels.

Yahoo!Finance has it right: blew past estimates.
Apple Inc's revenue forecast for the holiday shopping-quarter was largely above market expectations, helping allay investor concerns about production delays and supply constraints for the iPhone X, which it will start shipping from Nov. 3.
The forecast comes after Apple gauged demand for iPhone X with a pre-order process that kicked off online on Oct. 27. Many analysts have said the forecast will show how Apple tackles supply chain issues to make enough phones, for which it has reported "off the charts" demand.
The company forecast first-quarter revenue of $84 billion to $87 billion. Analysts on average were expecting $84.18 billion.
Apple said it sold 46.7 million iPhones in the fourth quarter ended Sept. 30, above analysts' estimates of 46.4 million.
The company's net income rose to $10.71 billion, or $2.07 per share, in the quarter, from $9.01 billion, or $1.67 per share, a year earlier.
The $28.85 billion revenue from iPhone sales accounted for nearly 55 percent of total revenue, which rose 12.2 percent to $52.58 billion.
Analysts on average were expecting total revenue of $50.70 billion, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Fast Money says "Apple crushed earnings." And no one has mentioned that Apple's cash pile has increased 13% year-over-year.

EOG Earnings

AP: EOG tops forecasts --
  • 3Q17 net income: $100.5 million vs a loss one year earlier
  • EPS: 17 cents/share; adjusted, 19 cents/share
  • forecast: 10 cents/share
  • revenue: $2.64 billion vs $2.58 billion forecast
From a press release, 3Q17 earnings:
  • introduces 50,000 net acre Woodford Oil window play with 210 MMBoe estimated net resource potential and 260 net premium well locations 
  • adds First Bone Spring play in Delaware Basin with 540 MMBoe estimated net resource potential and 540 remaining net premium well locations
  • exceeds revised post-Harvey crude oil, NGL and natural gas production targets 
  • delivers per-unit lease and well, transportation and DD&A expense rates below targets
  • expects to grow 2017 U.S. oil production 20 percent within discretionary cash flow including dividends

Talk About A God-Awful 24 Hours -- First, Spectrum Internet Down; Now Verizon Down -- November 2, 2017

Spectrum cable/internet service went down about 9:30 p.m. last night (cable television was okay -- we saw THE GAME. Spectrum was down for the entire state of Texas until mid-morning, and it appears not all of Texas is yet back up.

And then Verizon went down overnight. 

My wife has Verizon. She's not a happy camper.

I have ATT. I'm a very, very happy camper. ATT never goes down. LOL. [Later: I just realized, I have Sprint (when I got my monthly bill), not ATT. Same difference. Whatever.]


Our internet provider interrupted service from 9:30 p.m. last night to 9:30 a.m. this morning. No explanation. No weather problems. Nothing. We simply lost service. But it's up now.

Speaking Of God-Awful

So, "they" polled the millennials. Asking them who could be best described as "hero" for/of their country. Here's their list:

Who's missing?


Less than a year out of office, and they've already forgotten "their" hero.

Pretty funny.

A huge "thank you" to Don.

But there's an even bigger story in that graph.

Take a minute. What is the bigger story?

The bigger story? Those who posted the poll were not sure Americans could identify who was an "American politician" or "other" -- so they color-coded it for those in the Ozarks.

When I asked that poll among friends and neighbors, the first thing they noted: President Obama was not on the list. At least they remembered him. The millennials completely forgot about him. 

Tesla Derangement Syndrome -- Yes, I Admit It -- I'm Obsessed With Tesla (I'm Also An Apple Fanboy) -- November 2, 2017

TSLA Update: Model 3 deliveries for October just reported: 145. Holy guacamole, Batman. What next?]. From an earlier post --
Wow, wow, wow -- in pre-market trading, TSLA just dropped below $300/share -- recovered a bit. Waiting for the opening bid: $301.55, down $19.53 from yesterday's close, down 6.08% from yesterday's close.
"Tesla watch" at this post: link here. One can never predict these things, but if a year from now TSLA is trading at $50, we might look back on November 2, 2017, as the day everything came to an end.
They are piling on at CNBC and this is the headline story above the fold on the second page of The WSJ today: "Tesla rolls back goal on sedan amid loss." I haven't read the story yet but it will be interesting if they even mention the huge cost of the new gigafactory planned for China.
And then this: Elon Musk clearly stated that profits and profit margins on the S and X were keeping Tesla afloat. Yesterday we learn that the lowly Chevrolet Bolt, this past month (October, 2017) outsold both S and X combined. On initial reports (when Elon Musk did report S and X deliveries) Tesla did not even report Model 3 deliveries for the month of October.
Tesla watch.

The numbers are all posted for Tesla:
  • Models S and X had worse months ever this year (with some minor exceptions for Model X)
  • look how far S/X fell month-over-month
  • the "X" was Tesla's cash cow
  • Tesla actually cut the price on the "X" because it was making so much money on that car (paraphrasing Musk Melon)
  • don't even get me started on Model 3 -- goal was 5,000 / week by this time, or at leasing heading in this direction; I opined a couple weeks ago that if Musk Melon did not deliver even 500 cars in October it would be a disaster; one contributor at SeekingAlpha was right on -- suggesting that by mid-October, Tesla had not even delivered 100 cars
  • as Cramer says, "bulls make money; bears make money; hogs get slaughtered." Hogs had a chance to see last week

WSJ article on Tesla with regard to earnings call; see 176 comments.

Scathing analysis over at InvestorVillage -- story from WSJ.
Tesla's quest to live up to sky-high expectations looks tougher than ever.

The company reported third-quarter sales of $3 billion and an adjusted loss of $2.92 a share on Wednesday, falling short of analyst estimates. This looks worse when one considers that profit estimates already had dropped steadily. The consensus analyst forecast for the third quarter called for a profit of 80 cents a share last June.

Tesla burned through a record amount of cash during the period, some $1.4 billion. That is disconcerting, but investors' emphasis has been on the future with this company. Developments during the quarter make CEO Elon Musk's vision look more like a pipe dream. For starters, Tesla said it would build 10% less Model S and X vehicles in the fourth quarter than the third quarter, a worrying sign on future demand for its more expensive, higher margin products.

The outlook is even worse for the Model 3, the mass-market model that Tesla has struggled to build. It now expects to produce 5,000 a week by the first quarter of next year, another slippage in its timeline. And Tesla seemed to hint that some equipment to produce more Model 3s hasn't been installed, noting "it has always been our intention to implement that capacity addition after we have achieved a 5,000 per week run rate." Its ultimate target is twice as many.
I don't know what the "worst" bad news for Tesla was in the past 48 hours. I think it might be the fact that Chevrolet Bolt (2,781) easily outsold Tesla S, X, and 3 (1,120, 850, 145, respectively = 2,115). Add, 1,362 Chevrolet Volts and the Chevy EV total is 4,143. Let's see, 4,143 - 2,115 = 2,028.

The "2,028-delta" is almost equal to the total Teslas delivered, which I suppose is another way of saying Chevy EVs doubled Tesla sales. Wow. 

Meandering Thoughts -- Nothing About The Bakken -- November 2, 2017

Kneeling: Papa Johns to stop all advertising during NFL games, I hear. Have not confirmed.

And Yet No Special Counsel Looking Into This And 73 Other Scandals During The Obama Administration

From an earlier post, July 11, 2014 --
Humor for the day: a judge tells IRS to explain e-mail loss. Spoiler alert: the IRS already explained it. The hard drive on Ms Lois Lerner's simply crashed, most likely due to global warming -- computers crash when inadequately cooled. Ms Lerner called in her own highly trained IT personnel who said, "yup, the hard drive crashed. Let's trash the hard drive, erase everything, and re-use it. We don't have the funds available to buy a new hard drive." That was back in 2013. Interestingly enough, the e-mails that were sent by Ms Lerner to others -- have never been found either. Sometimes these things just happen. [By the way, the best way to really destroy data on a hard drive -- a) erase all data; and, then, re-write over it. Sort of a two-step process.]
The Alma Mater Page

From The WSJ:
Mr. Casden developed between 110,000 to 120,000 units of residential housing throughout his four-decade-long career, he said. Ms. Casden is known as a collector of couture fashion. The couple is active in philanthropy: Mr. Casden donated $10.6 million to his alma mater, the University of Southern California, in 2000.
Back story:
A Beverly Hills estate with a mansion, two guesthouses and miniature trains that can squire riders around the property is seeking $58.88 million.

The nearly 1¾-acre property has a 26,800-square-foot house with eight bedrooms and 15 bathrooms. The house includes 12 antique marble fireplaces imported from France, Italy and England, and a two-story wood paneled library with his-and-hers offices. There is also a 5,000-square-foot master wing on the second floor. [This "master wing" is about 10x the size of our apartment.]

The grounds include a large lawn, croquet court, tennis court and pool with a waterslide and waterfalls. Both guesthouses have their own two-car garages. Train tracks meander through the property and accommodate both steam and diesel locomotives, both rideable and both built to 1/8th the scale of the real thing.

The sellers are retired real-estate developer Alan Casden and his wife Susan. Mr. Casden said the trains were inspired in part by his visits to the railroad museum in Griffith Park.

Random Update Of The Hess Gudbranson Wells In Elm Tree -- November 2, 2017

This page will not be updated. The Hess Gudbranson wells are tracked elsewhere, but it might be interesting to take a look at production profile of #21312: see graphic below.

Hess Gudbranson #33249 should come off confidential list today, but has not yet been reported.

This is the well:
  • 21312, 1,087, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-2, Elm Tree, 34 stages, 1.66 million lbs, t7/12; cum 327K 9/17;
This is the production profile for the past few months (3,500 bbls over 15 days extrapolates to 7,000 bbls/month).

Monthly production data:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The Hess AN-Gudbranson Wells

The Hess AN-Gudbranson wells in Elm Tree oil field (does not include the five new permits on the May 5, 2017, daily activity report.
  • 33533,
  • 33532,
  • 33531,
  • 33530,
  • 33529,
  • 33249, conf, AN-Gudbranson-LW-153-94-2215H-1, no production data
  • 26924, 2,121, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-7, Elm Tree, t9/17; cum 27K 9/17;
  • 26923, 2,145, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-6, Elm Tree, t9/17; cum 21K 9/17;
  • 26922, 2,173, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-5, Elm Tree, t9/17; cum20K 9/17;
  • 26921, 1,708, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-4, Elm Tree, t9/17; cum 13K over 11 days;
  • 26920, 2,110, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-3, Elm Tree, t9/17; cum 8K over 4 days;
  • 21312, 1,087, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-2, Elm Tree, 34 stages, 1.66 million lbs, t7/12; cum 327K 9/17;
  • 19538, 1,152, Hess, AN-Gudbranson-153-94-2215H-1, Elm Tree, Three Forks, 23 stages, 1 million lbs, t7/12; cum 334K 9/17;
The Graphic:

Thursday -- November 2, 2017 -- Confusion Reigns On The Blog -- You May Want To Skip The Blog Today And Come Back Tomorrow

TSLA: Wow, wow, wow -- in pre-market trading, TSLA just dropped below $300/share -- recovered a bit. Waiting for the opening bid: $301.55, down $19.53 from yesterday's close, down 6.08% from yesterday's close. "Tesla watch" at this post: link here. One can never predict these things, but if a year from now TSLA is trading at $50, we might look back on November 2, 2017, as the day everything came to an end. They are piling on at CNBC and this is the headline story above the fold on the second page of The WSJ today: "Tesla rolls back goal on sedan amid loss." I haven't read the story yet but it will be interesting if they even mention the huge cost of the new gigafactory planned for China. And then this: Elon Musk clearly stated that profits and profit margins on the S and X were keeping Tesla afloat. Yesterday we learn that the lowly Chevrolet Bolt, this past month (October, 2017) outsold both S and X combined. On initial reports (when Elon Musk did report S and X deliveries) Tesla did not even report Model 3 deliveries for the month of October. Update: Model 3 deliveries for October just reported: 145. Holy guacamole, Batman. What next?]

We lost internet service last night -- still down this morning -- blogging from McDonald's -- will be awhile before I get caught up -- November 2, 2017 -- 7:06 a.m.

Because the internet was down all night (and still it at home), my blogs today will be more difficult to follow -- I will be updating each page throughout the next few hours. 

Lots of energy and economic news on the first Thursday of the month. It will take time to wade through it.

Big stories I'm looking for today:
  • Tesla: I think the information we are getting is much worse than some expected -- updated; but still more to follow when the market opens
  • Saudi import data has been posted
  • Saudi foreign reserves has been posted
  • unemployment data has been posted
  • gasoline demand graph posted
  • RDS earnings
  • Venezuela to sell refinery assets to China, Russia to cover bonds 
Most Important Graph So Far Today -- Gasoline Demand

Jobs Report

Amazing how hard it is to find this data on the net immediately after the report. Under the Obama administration, it came out immediately. But under Trump, it seems it takes forever to get the headlines on the internet. Whatever. Data points:
  • first-time claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, numbers better than expected
  • 229,000 for week ended October 28, 2017, below the 235,000 expected
  • this is almost 2% below the previous week 
  • previous week: revised to 234,000 
From the WSJ today: huge jump in jobs --- according to ADP, US private sector added 235,000 jobs in October. Huge beat. Economists had expected the addition of 190,000 jobs. Truly amazing.
Saudi Arabia in Deep Doo-Doo

Saudi import data: I believe Saudi import data is second lowest in history -- at least since 1989 -- one has to go all the way back to August, 2009, to see a lower import number.

Asian market: On top of this, OPEC/Saudi Arabia will lose battle in trying to corner Asian market.
Early in October, OPEC’s chief, Mohammed Barkindo, appeared to be unfazed by growing U.S. crude oil shipments to OPEC’s key market, Asia. The official said he expected OPEC exports bound for the East will continue to expand in the coming years, eventually hitting 22 million bpd in 2040, up from 14.5 million bpd in 2016.
Yet underneath the confidence, there seems to be growing worry about these U.S. shipments because they’re growing too, and nobody is tying U.S. shale producers’ hands with any production-cutting arrangements aimed to stimulate prices.
In fact, the threat to OPEC from U.S. shale oil just got more serious as it became clear that the cartel and its partners are planning to extend their own agreement until the end of 2018. This means that until the end of next year, OPEC, Russia, and their partners will continue to supply 1.8 million fewer barrels of oil per day to global markets—or at least a figure in that vicinity, as compliance is still far from 100 percent across the group.
Saudi cash, first, from last month, at that time, the most recent data was from July, 2017, tradingeconomics:
Saudi cash, now, today, the data from August, 2017, a further drop, again from tradingeconomics:

Bottom line: Saudi Arabia is in deep, deep trouble.


"Tesla watch" at this post: link here.

Headlines at CNBC crawler earlier this morning:
  • largest quarterly loss reported yesterday
  • will cut back production of Model 3
  • Other headlines elsewhere
Chevrolet Bolt outsold Tesla's Model S and Model X.

Papa John Is Mad As Hell --
-- And Red As A Beet

Loses $70 million in hours -- blames NFL.

Royal Dutch Shell -- 3Q17 Earnings Beat


EPS: $1.00 -- breezing past the consensus estimate of 83 cents, and the year-ago adjusted profit of 70 cents
  • revenues: almost 25% higher than same quarter one year ago
  • revenues: almost $78 billion vs $63 billion a year ago -- just imagine -- almost $100 billion revenue in one quarter -- staggering
Venezuela - Tick, Tick, Tick

Venezuelan state-owned oil company PdV looks to have stepped back from the brink yet again on its latest debt payment, after an $842mn principal payment on a 2020 bond due on 27 October finally started reaching bondholders overnight.
The stakes were especially high this time, because the 2020 bond is backed by a 50.1pc stake in PdV's US downstream subsidiary Citgo.
The nail-biting delay, financial executives say, probably had less to do with PdV´s dwindling cash position and novice financial team than with nervous calls by US intermediary banks to the US Office of Foreign Assets Control to make sure they were not running afoul of US financial sanctions on the Opec country.
Now the clock is ticking for PdV to pay $1.1bn in principal due today on a PdV 2017 bond.

We Lost Internet Last Night -- Still Down This Morning -- Blogging From McDonald's -- Will Be Awhile Before I Get Caught Up -- November 2, 2017

Our internet at home is still down, and apparently the problem is spreading again this morning in the Dallas area, from downdetector:

Back To Business

Active rigs:

Active Rigs533569193181

RBN Energy: the rationale for reversing the crude oil flow on the Capline.
The three co-owners of the 1.2-MMb/d Capline Pipeline from St. James, LA, to Patoka, IL, have begun assessing whether there is sufficient shipper interest in reversing the flow of one of the U.S.’s largest crude oil pipelines in the early 2020s.
There are good reasons both for ending Capline’s long run as a northbound-flowing pipe and for repurposing the pipeline to help transport heavy western Canadian oil and other crudes south to refineries in eastern Louisiana and Mississippi and to export markets.
But there also are logical questions to ask, such as why Capline’s owners envision sending only 300 Mb/d south on the pipe, and why they don’t see the reversal occurring for five years. Today, we examine the forces behind Capline’s possible reversal and the benefits that flipping the pipe’s direction might provide.
The Sports Page

From RBN Energy today (same link as above):
The Astros’ 5-1 win last night in the seventh game of the 2017 World Series capped off an incredible year for the team, and provided a welcome boost to the Houston area, parts of which are still recovering from the devastating effects of Hurricane Harvey. Houston Strong! The Astros accomplished a lot in the post-season. For one, they became the first Major League Baseball (MLB) team to win a pennant in both the National League (in 2005) and the American League (a couple of weeks ago). For another, in their 10th-inning, 13-12 win in Game 5 on Sunday, the Astros became the first team in World Series history to have five different players hit homers. (Game 2 wasn’t bad either!) In many ways it was inevitable — or at least not very surprising — that the Astros and the Dodgers would end up in the World Series this year. After all, both teams had won more than 100 games during the regular season, a feat that only seven other teams have accomplished so far this century.