Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Delayed Blogging

Again, due to family reunions, etc., I am way behind on blogging. Blogging may be at a minimum for three or four days.

I suppose in keeping with the spirit of the times, I could have called it a "partial Bakken blog shutdown." LOL.

I will eventually get to all e-mails and comments, but things will be delayed.

Good luck to all.

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List Wednesday; Six (6) New Permits -- The Williston Basin, North Dakota, USA

Active rigs: 187 (rising)

Wells coming off the confidential list Wednesday:
  • 23981, 514, Oasis, Alder 6092 43-8H, Lucy, t4/13; cum 24K 7/13;
  • 24471, 608, SM Energy, Rose 16-24H, Colgan, t7/13; cum 11K 7/13;
  • 24935, conf-->loc, CLR, Tangsrud 7-1H3, Hayland, no production data,
Six (6) new permits --
  • Operators: KOG (2), OXY USA, Hunt, CLR, XTO
  • Fields: Big Stone (Williams), Murphy Creek (Dunn), Bear Butte (McKenzie), Stoneview (Burke), North Fork McKenzie
  • Comments:
Wells coming off the confidential list were posted earlier; see sidebar at the right.

Six (6) producing wells completed:
21453, 514, Slawson, Waterbond 2-27-34H,
25216, 1,015, Whiting, Littlefield 21-31TFH,
25554, 1,098, Whiting, Nesheim 13-24H,
24402, 858, SM Energy, Koeser 3X-26HB,
24404, 685, SM Energy, Koeser 3X-26HA,
24403, 1,045, SM Energy, Koeser 3/26H,

332 New Highs Today; First Day Of Government Shutdown With No Breakthrough On Horizon

The market is very, very volatile, but 332 new highs today is quite remarkable considering the circumstances.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read her or think you may have read here.

New 52-week highs: CLR, KOG, OAS, TPLM, WLL. Many other Bakken-operators had great days.

Statoil With More Bad News

On September 22, 2013, I wrote: One gets a general feeling that Norway/Statoil is "anxious" about how their oil industry is going.

There have been a number of stories about Statoil/Norway suggesting all is not perfect in the land of the midnight sun. I generally do not post those articles. But the stories have to do with taxes, Norway's new government, carbon capture costs, challenges in the Arctic, etc.

Now, another "Debbie Downer" story for Statoil. Bloomberg is reporting:
Statoil, Norway’s biggest oil and gas producer, said the new Conservative-led government’s decision to sacrifice exploration off the Lofoten islands will deny the country a chance to revive flagging production.
Incoming Prime Minister Erna Solberg, whose Conservatives agreed to form a government with the Progress Party, said yesterday she won’t seek to open areas off the environmentally sensitive islands in the next four years, keeping as much as 2.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent in the ground.
“Production will fall quickly after 2025 if we don’t make new, big discoveries” and may slump as much as 50 percent by 2030, Oerjan Heradstveit, a spokesman for Statoil, said today by telephone. “It’s all the more important for the industry that the government considers other long-term measures that can secure the Norwegian shelf’s competitiveness.”
Norway expects crude-oil production, which comes mainly from aging fields in the North Sea, to fall for a 13th consecutive year in 2013 to less than half its peak in 2000. Total petroleum output will drop 13 percent. While oil volumes will subsequently be bolstered by new fields such as Johan Sverdrup, output will resume its decline in 10 years’ time if new finds aren’t made, according to consultants Rystad Energy.
Remember: a Norwegian group just visited UND/North Dakota a few days/weeks ago (time flies; I forget exactly when). 

Recent Transcripts: Whiting, Denbury

Due to too much socializing this morning, I didn't get much done on the blog and there's so much to discuss.

But I've run out of time and need to move along. I will leave you with a SeekingAlpha link to a Whiting presentation. I have not read it. I will read it later; blog later.

I won't be able to reply to comments or e-mail, but I will reply later today.

Good luck to all. 

Also, later, this SeekingAlpha link to a Denbury presentation transcript

Is There Something Going On With Oasis?

On September 24, 2013, I asked: is there something going on with OAS?

The question needs to be asked again. Oasis is on a tear again today.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment decisions based on anything you read here or think you may have read here.

If Ever An IP Meant "Diddly-Squat": 144,000 Bbls In Less Than Four Months


September 7, 2019: cum 546K 7/19; around, 2,500 bbls/month; on a pump

November 2, 2014: cum 329K 9/14; about 10K/month; no pump
Original Post

NDIC File No: 22921    
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 5/1/2013     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: LOT3 1-151-91    
Current Operator: EOG RESOURCES, INC.
Current Well Name: LIBERTY 106-0107H
Spud Date(s):  12/2/2012
Pool: BAKKEN     Perfs: 10149-19250     Comp: 5/1/2013     Status: F     Date: 5/1/2013     Spacing: ICO
Pool: BAKKEN     Cum Oil: 144074     Cum MCF Gas: 35617     Cum Water: 61641
IP Test Date: 5/1/2013     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 60     IP MCF: 333     IP Water: 20

Monthly Production Data:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

105,000 Bbls In Less Than Three Months -- The Incredible Bakken

Stunning. Remember, EOG's expectation is 100% return in 12 months.

NDIC File No: 21406    
Well Type: OG     Well Status: A     Status Date: 4/26/2013     Wellbore type: Horizontal
Location: LOT3 1-151-91    
Current Operator: EOG RESOURCES, INC.
Current Well Name: LIBERTY 25-0107H
Total Depth: 20212     
Spud Date(s):  12/4/2012
Pool: BAKKEN    Spacing: ICO
Cumulative Production Data: 105155     Cum MCF Gas: 29394     Cum Water: 58890
IP Test Date: 4/26/2013     Pool: BAKKEN     IP Oil: 1355     IP MCF: 300     IP Water: 2500
Monthly Production Data

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

The Newspapers -- National Parks Closed; ObamaCare Fully Funded

The Wall Street Journal

When I heard the first words of the president's speech -- "the national parks are closed" -- I knew how bad this government shutdown was really going to be. After all, the White House has been closed to tourists for the past year or so. The military will get paid. Social security recipients will get paid. Medicare will be funded. ObamaCare will be funded. No more oil and gas permits for drilling on federal land will be issued -- much of the Bakken will be affected, I suppose.

Union rift over at UPS: a rift between top leadership of the Teamsters union and rank-and-file members over labor settlements, a development that could unnerve corporate shippers and hurt its holiday shipping business.

USPS could benefit if UPS stumbles: Amazon plans to hire 70,000 seasonal workers for its U.S. warehouse network this year, a 40% increase that points to the company's upbeat expectations about the holiday selling season.

And then this: Wal-Mart is building a pair of dedicated warehouses to handle Internet orders and speed up shipments, its latest move as it tries to catch up to online rival Amazon.
The two new fulfillment centers—one of which opened this month in Ft. Worth, Texas, and will handle the upcoming winter holiday load. The second distribution center, on the East Coast, will open early next year in Bethlehem, Pa., about 10 miles from Amazon's own Lehigh Valley warehouse operations. It will put Wal-Mart within a day's haul of a third of the shoppers in the U.S. and Canada.
Why Austin? AT&T is following plans by Google to offer ultrafast Internet service in Austin, Texas, by the middle of next year.

The Los Angeles Times

The Senate votes to shut-down government.

More than 800,000 federal workers were to spend Tuesday, the first day of the new fiscal year, on unpaid furloughs as agency managers executed contingency plans for the costly process of closing down operations indefinitely.
The official word to shut down came from the White House just before midnight Monday. Hours earlier, the Senate, by a 54-46 party-line vote, killed a House measure that would have funded government agencies for six weeks but delayed key parts of Obamacare for a year.
I thought the Senate GOP was not supporting the house; the vote suggests something else.

Los Angeles Unified is taking back the iPads they issued. Out of control. This was a $1 billion program. The students were able to hack the system, getting around firewalls.

Did anyone else miss this: it's not even the top story --
Most power was restored to UC Berkeley overnight after a powerful explosion Monday evening left four people with minor burns and caused the campus to go dark.
Some power was restored to the campus as of 11:15 p.m., and university officials were slated to give an update on the situation Tuesday morning.
The blast and fire north of California Hall, which forced students to scramble for safety and sent a dark cloud of smoke into the air, was probably caused by the theft of copper wire from an off-campus electrical station, a UC Berkeley spokesman said. 

Tuesday Morning

Active rigs: 185

RBN Energy: continuing series on reversal of REX.
Reversing the direction of flow on the eastern third of the Rockies Express (REX) pipeline would have a profound effect on natural gas markets throughout the industrial Midwest and the Midsouth. Not only would the plan significantly expand the regions’ access to gas from the Utica and western Marcellus shale plays, it would further erode the market shares held by traditional suppliers to those regions.   In this Part 3 of our series on the REX reversal we examine how moving large volumes of now-constrained gas west from southwestern Pennsylvania, Ohio and West Virginia would fundamentally change regional gas flow patterns, basis relationships, and even the operations of many pipelines.
Russia introduces tax breaks to encourage oil exploration. Interesting.

I assume the government shutdown means no new permits in much of the Bakken. All things being equal, one would assume the price of natural gas would start to increase fairly soon, to be followed by the price of oil, if the shutdown proceeds for any length of time.  Of course all things are not equal, and it's anybody's guess where the price of oil will go.

I have never understood the "strength" of the Japanese economy in the face of its debt. The Japanese government is set to increase the national sales tax from 5 percent to 8 percent to deal with the debt. Reuters is reporting:

The tax increase marks the first serious effort since 1997 to rein in Japan's public debt, which recently blew past 1,000 trillion yen ($10.18 trillion). At more than twice the size of the economy, this is the heaviest debt load in the industrial world.
The government has done little to rein in spending and is watering down the impact of the tax hike, so some critics doubt Tuesday's move will be enough to get Japan on track to achieve its goal of halving the budget deficit - excluding debt service and income from debt sales - by the fiscal year to March 2016 and balance it five years later.

New Oil And Gas Permits On Federal Lands Suspended Due To Government Shutdown

Rigzone is reporting:
The clock was ticking for companies trying to push through new drilling permits on federal lands as the looming threat of a government shutdown drew closer Monday. If the United States House and Senate are unable to come to an agreement about a short-term spending plan, the resulting government shutdown would bring to an abrupt halt at least some oil permitting, according to a geophysicist.
“If there is a shutdown, no new federal permits would be written. Without permits, there would be no drilling on federal lands, or offshore lands more than three miles out,” said Kathy Hardy, a geophysicist for EPL Oil and Gas.
While a well site that is on non-federal land is under control of the state, and would not be affected, anything that is done on federal land requires a separate permit, Hardy said.
And then this:
“There are at least three different permits needed. You need a permit to drill the well, and a permit to complete the well, and a permit to plug the well. If there is anything else done, you need a permit for that, too,” said Hardy.
I assume this means no more permits in much of the Bakken.