Monday, August 16, 2021

AAPL -- PE -- August 16, 2021

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

AAPL

For the past year, talking heads have suggested AAPL with a P/E running between 33 and 37 was "too expensive." Today, after AAPL closed above $151, the P/E was said to be below 30. 

From July 31, 2021, AAPL:

  • Outstanding shares: 16.53 billion (16,530,000,000)
  • Share price: $145.86
  • Market cap: $2.4 trillion ($2,411,000,000,000)
  • P/E (TTM - July 14, 2021): 33.59; share price: $149/share

Today, same source:

  • Outstanding shares: 16.53 billion (16,530,000,000) -- no change
  • Share price: $151.12
  • Market cap: $2.498 trillion ($2,498,000,000,000)
  • P/E (TTM): 29.58

Selected P/E's today:

  • TSLA: 362
  • MSFT: 36.60
  • AMD: 37.89
  • UNP: 25.92

AAPL target:

A year ago, August 19, 2020, talking heads / analysts suggested AAPL would be trading at $425 one year later, August 19, 2021.

  • on August 19, 2020: AAPL trading at $468.
  • August 28, 2020: AAPL split 4 -1
  • August 28, 2020: AAPL at, after the split: $417
  • August 28, 2020: AAPL target one year out, August, 19, 2021: $425, or $106, split-adjusted
  • Actual: AAPL trading at $150.

Quick! Name The Fastest-Growing County In The Entire United States This Past Decade -- August 16, 2021

McKenzie County, North Dakota. 

Link to Charles Kennedy

The oil boom over the past decade, which made America the world’s top crude oil producer, made a small rural county in [western] North Dakota the fastest-growing county in population between 2010 and 2020, U.S. Census Bureau data showed.

North Dakota’s McKenzie County was the fastest-growing county in America in the past decade, according to the decennial U.S. census.  

The Bakken boom, which began early in the 2010s, contributed a lot to the fastest-growing county in America. [2000 in Montana, 2007 in North Dakota.]

The number of residents in McKenzie County more than doubled over the past decade, jumping from 6,360 residents in 2010 to 14,704 residents 2020, according to the U.S. census.

The growth was “whopping,” Census Bureau demographer Marc Perry said during a press conference, as quoted by the AP.

Williams County, also in North Dakota, registered an 83-percent surge in the number of its residents over the past decade, to 40,950 people in 2020.

The Photo -- August 16, 2021

The graphic

There was a lot of talk today regarding that photo. 

But no one connected the dots. 

Whenever there's a crisis for the US president, who does he (we've never had a "she") call for outside advice?

Yup, a former living president. 

Think about that. 

Second question: who's really running the current administration?

Later: the point of all this. The Taliban began their final assault at the very time the Biden presidency was pre-occupied with the Obama birthday bash planning and celebration. The Taliban has learned a lot fighting the Americans for twenty years.

******************************
Time Line

From USA Today

From The Guardian.

July

  • Officials on 2 July announce the departure of all American and NATO troops from Bagram, Afghanistan’s biggest airbase, which served as the linchpin of US-led operations in the country for two decades.
  • Two days later, July 4, the Taliban seize the key district of Panjwai in Kandahar, the insurgents’ birthplace and former bastion.
  • The Taliban announce the capture of Islam Qala, Afghanistan’s biggest border crossing with Iran, on 9 July.
  • On 14 July, the insurgents take control of the Spin Boldak border crossing with Pakistan, a major trade route between the two countries.
    • The Taliban offensive escalates sharply with a new focus on urban centres as the insurgents attack the cities of Lashkar Gah, Kandahar and Herat.
    • The United States and Britain say the Taliban may have committed war crimes, accusing the insurgents of “massacring civilians” in the town of Spin Boldak.

August

  • Tuesday 3: Eight people are killed in a coordinated Taliban-claimed bomb and gun attack targeting the Afghan defence minister and several lawmakers in Kabul.
  • Friday 6: The Taliban shoot dead the head of the Afghan government’s media information centre at a mosque in the capital. They also capture their first Afghan provincial capital, the city of Zaranj in southwestern Nimroz, “without a fight”.
  • Saturday 7: President Obama's 60th birthday party on Martha's Vineyard.  The former president and his staffers pre-occupied with biggest birthday spectacular since The Great Gatsby; Afghanistan dropped off their radar scope, sometime in July, if not before.
  • Monday 9: The northern city of Kunduz follows on Sunday 8 August and Monday 9th, along with Sheberghan, Sar-e-Pul, Taloqan, Aibak and Farah. In what becomes a familiar pattern, fighters reportedly swept into Aibak without meeting any resistance. The deputy chief of Samangan province confirmed that the local governor had withdrawn his soldiers in order to protect the civilian population.
    • Despite the bloodshed and sweeping advances, US president Joe Biden gives no suggestion he will delay the troop withdrawal, which is to be completed by 31 August, ahead of the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks.
  • Wednesday 11: With the key besieged northern city of Mazar-i-Sharif the next Taliban target, Afghan president Ashraf Ghani flies up to rally his forces. But his visit is overshadowed by the surrender of hundreds of Afghan soldiers in nearby Kunduz and the overnight capture of a ninth provincial capital, Faizabad. Pul-e-Khumri, 140km north of Kabul, also falls.
    • The US military warns that the whole of Afghanistan could fall “within 90 days”.
  • Thursday 12: The Taliban capture Ghazni, 150km (90 miles) south-west of Kabul. Herat in the west falls the same day.
  • Friday 13: Kandahar, the southern city which saw a lot of fighting in the 20-year war, falls, followed by and Lashkar Gah.
  • Saturday 14: Asadabad and Gardez follow on Saturday along with Mazar-i-Sharif, which Ghani had visited just three days earlier.
  • Sunday 15: The eastern city of Jalalabad is taken over by the insurgents early in the morning Sunday, leaving Kabul the only remaining major Afghan city still under government control. Falls later in the day. US military cordon off the airport for orderly exit.
    • Ghani flees the country, reportedly to Tajikistan, and the Taliban enter the capital, eventually taking position in the presidential palace. In a statement, Ghani admits the insurgents have “won."

Can you imagine Churchill throwing a birthday bash for himself on the eve of D-Day?

One New Permit; Twenty Active Rigs; CLR Drops A Couple Of Active Rigs; Grayson Mill Acquires Several Hundred Wells From Equinor -- August 16, 2021

Active rigs:

$67.48
8/16/202108/16/202008/16/201908/16/201808/16/2017
Active Rigs23*12615855


Active rigs as reported by the NDIC: 20

  • Continental Resources with six active rigs

One permit approved, #38488:

  • Operator: Eagle Operating
  • Field: Feldner Coulee (Renville)
  • Comments:
    • Eagle Operating has a permit for M Miller well in NESE 29-159-86,
    • the well will be sited 1820 FSL and 605 FEL

One permit was renewed:

  • 33888, Liberty Resources, Blomquist E, in Burke County

Change of operator

  • Grayson Mill Operating acquired approximately 350 wells from Equinor. I have not gone through the list yet, nor counted them but that looks about the number of wells based on the seven pages of wells.

Two dry holes:

  • 19783, Fram Operating, Schlak, SENE 30-160-86;
  • 29241, Solutions Energy, Nangchen, Ward County, SESE 11-155-86;

The Market And Covid-19 Update -- August 16, 2021

For the archives: this was the first trading day after the fall of Kabul, August 15, 2021. This was Monday, August 16, 2021. Kabul fell over the weekend of August 13 - 15, 2021. A twenty-year war and it ended in a 72-hour rout. September 11, 2021 will be the 20th anniversary of "9-11."

Dow and S&P 500 both closed at new all-time highs, and it wasn't even close -- the numbers were incredible when one looks at all the headwinds.

The Dow, already at a record high, finished 110 points higher; the S&P 500, also at a record high, finished twelve points higher.

The NASDAQ reversed direction in late trading and came close to erasing its opening losses, closing down only 29 points.

The only graph that really interests me for the moment: 

Berkshire Hathaway: sold GM.

****************************
Covid-19

CDC data. The numbers have been posted, and they are very good numbers. Close to 900,000 vaccinations given on a Sunday.

Covid-19 update:

The Louisiana experience corroborates what I said from the beginning. 

Today's graphics:


Influenza viruse, including "seasonal flu" viruses and the Spanish flu: the genomes of all influenza viruses are composed of eight single-stranded RNA segments . These RNAs are negative-sense molecules.

From Nature.com:

The sequence of the 1918 influenza genome ("Spanish flu") proved to be puzzling and did not immediately answer researchers' questions regarding the strain's origin.

In the later flu pandemics that occurred in 1957 and 1968, the responsible strains appeared to have arisen through reassortment of avian-derived HA genes into human strains.

In contrast, the HA gene of the 1918 strain is most closely related to an influenza isolate obtained from swine.

The 1918 HA sequence bears some similarities to those sequences commonly seen among avian strains, but it differs from them much more than the strains responsible for the later pandemics. Indeed, when comparing the HA genes from all three pandemic strains to those from both Eurasian and North American avian species, the 1918 HA genes bear the least resemblance.

Furthermore, the later strains display fewer sequence differences overall and resemble Eurasian avian sequences much more closely than they do North American avian sequences. They also resemble avian sequences more closely than they do any mammalian sequence.

Taken together, these data suggest that pigs may have been an intermediate host for the 1918 strain, although this remains to be demonstrated.

Covid-19, from the NIH:

Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) is a respiratory disease caused by a novel enveloped, positive-sense, single-stranded RNA betacoronavirus, denoted as SARS-CoV-2.

Others:

  • measles: single-stranded, negative-sense RNA. Respiratory.
  • mubella: single-stranded, positive-sense RNA. Respiratory.
  • mumps: single-stranded, negative-sense RNA. Respiratory.
  • polio: single-stranded, positive-sense RNA. Fecal-oral.

For more, see biology-pages.info.

Blue Hydrogen -- It's Happening -- North Dakota -- August 16, 2021

Updates

August 17, 2021: link here. Blue hydrogen in the UK. Graphic pending, the dual-track blue hydrogen / green hydrogen program in the UK. Blue hydrogen in the UK will exceed CO2-emissions target, link here.

Original Post

A huge "thank you" to a reader for alerting me to The Williston Herald story. 

For background, see this June 2, 2021, post: blue hydrogen, Mitsubishi, Denbury, RBN Energy, and all that jazz. 

For more background, gray hydrogen, blue hydrogen, and green hydrogen, at Forbes, February 22, 2021.

“Green hydrogen is what Europe absolutely wants. But blue hydrogen is what a lot of the world thinks we can afford sooner and it’s probably going to be good enough,” he said. “It’s really more of a market-driven thing than a technology thing.”

From The Williston Herald (by the way, has anyone noticed that the Herald is getting better and better or is that just me?), link here. Data points:

  • blue hydrogen hub in the Bakken
    • to be built in about half the time "it usually takes" 
      • a greenfield plant normally take ten years to build / become operational
      • operator says a brownfield plant might take just five years
  • operator / source of data: Bakken Energy
  • announced August 16, 2021 (today)
  • the deal:
    • official name: the North Dakota Hydrogen Hub
    • partners: Basin Energy and Mitsubishi Power
    • Basin Electric Coop will purchase the assets of the Dakota Gasification Company
    • Dakota Gasification Company owns the Great Plains Synfuels Plant
    • expected to close April 1, 2023
  • Synfuels to continue existing operations through 2025
  • the plant, when complete:
    • 310,000 metric tons of hydrogen per year
    • primarily sourced through locally natural gas (CH4 --> CO2 and hydrogen)
  • Mitsubishi Powers Americas
    • the centrally-located North Dakota Hydrogen systems will connect Mitsubishi's planned wester and eastern US hubs to establish a national hydrogen network
    • Mitsubishi: will create: a Change in Power division
  • the CO2 will end up in CCS projects

From the blog, June 2, 2021, linked above:

To that end, Figure 1 below shows a simplified process flow diagram for a typical SMR unit.

Simplified SMR Flow Diagram

Figure 1. Simplified SMR Flow Diagram. Source: RBN

To create hydrogen via SMR, natural gas is first fed into a processing unit called a reformer. There it reacts with high-temperature steam and a catalyst, usually one that is nickel-based, to form hydrogen and carbon monoxide. The resulting gas mix is then fed to the shift conversion unit, where the carbon monoxide reacts with the steam to produce even more hydrogen, plus carbon dioxide (CO2). The hydrogen and carbon dioxide are then sent to a pressure swing adsorption (PSA) unit, where the CO2 is removed from the hydrogen.

The Market After Kabul Falls -- August 16, 2021

The market: I was absolutely, positively not going to check the market today. I saw the futures last night and the tea leaves suggested the markets were unconcerned about global events. The major indices were likely to open in the red but one must recall that the market is at all-time highs. One should expect some a) profit-taking; and, b) volatility.

But then a funny thing happened at 2:05 p.m. CT. 

I was curious what the market was doing.

Are you kidding me! The market is mixed, as they say. LOL. In fact, both the S&P 500 and the Dow 30 had erased all losses and both were trading in the "green." NASDAQ was down fifty points.

I was curious. Last week the "cup and handle" suggested AAPL was going to break $150. AAPL was down about $2.50 at the opening, but holy mackerel -- despite the child sexual abuse policy announcement and global warming in Afghanistan, AAPL is now up $1.60 / share, now trading above $150. 

That blows me away. 

What about other US bellwethers, as they say? I'm only going to check two, and won't check any shale operators. Here are the two:

  • UNP: down about 0.4%; trading at $226.85;
  • SRE: down about 0.2%; this $124-stock trading at $133.45

Okay, one more: BRK-B: up about 0.4%; trading at $289. Okay.

This will one to talk about: if the Dow and S&P 500 hit new all-time highs again ... note: the Fed says they may start talking about tapering in 2022, or maybe 2023. I forgot the headline.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

*************************
The Bash

This looks fun. From Boston.com, the bash by Julia Taliesin, August 8, 2021, the day after the party.

The bash planned for Barack Obama’s 60th birthday on Martha’s Vineyard was apparently scaled back, but leaked photos and reports suggest one heck of a party.

Though Obama’s birthday was officially Aug. 4, he hosted a star-studded event at the family’s Edgartown summer home on Saturday night. The party was held on the property’s 20-acres; drone photos show a massive party tent and dance floor set up on the oceanside.

Exactly what happened at the party remains mostly unknown. Several attendees and performers posted photos or videos to social media during the party, but all have since been deleted. Obamas on Instagram, according to NBC Boston, though the post was later removed.

“HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO THE COOLEST @barackobama surprise!! I’m grateful to have been able to celebrate with you and your family SAFELY,” the artist wrote.

A lot of A-list folks were dis-invited at the last minute, even after landing on the island (wow), and folks like Oprah Winfrey and Joe Biden RSVP's in the negative. 

Musician Eryka Badu posted a video of H.E.R. and Obama dancing to her Instagram story but it was later taken down. 

Covid-19 Update -- Massachusetts, South Dakota, Iowa -- August 16, 2021

The birthday bash was held just as the third wave was beginning to appear in that state.

The Sturgis Rally, began about the same time, and has now ended.

The Iowa State Fair, expecting one million unmasked visitors, no vaccinations required, will last two weeks and opened August 12, 2021.



All of this, of course, has been overshadowed by global warming and systemic racism issues playing out in Afghanistan over the weekend.


************************** 

Prior to this weekend's events in Afghanistan, SecDef stated his top priority was climate change. "Afghanistan" did not make the list of his top three priorities, nor did Taiwan.

Memo to Taiwan, aka Taipei Province, China:

  • check the fine print in US-Taiwan treaties and MOUs;
  • senior government officials should start booking hotel rooms in southern California now
  • protect the airport at all costs;
  • update Plan B
  • expedite plans to move TMSC to Austin, TX


An XTO Nygaard Federal Well Update -- Trending Toward 500K BBls Oil In Less Than Two Years -- August 16, 2021

This page will not be updated. This well is tracked elsewhere. 

Paperwork often lags what is going on in the field. In addition, the NDIC database is undergoing updates and information was last current July 14, 2021.

Here's another great well, trending toward 500,000 bbls in less than eight months, still being reported as a DUC. I remember all those narratives that daughter wells would never do as well as the parent wells. Whatever.

The well:

  • 32921, SI/A, XTO, Nygaard Federal 13X-5AXD, Lost Bridge, first production, 6/19; t--; cum 410K 6/21;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-2021301278712933729332365249445299
BAKKEN5-20213117845175029862589504491711438
BAKKEN4-202130222542270110814611644758010946
BAKKEN3-202131261612630514617536084031210861
BAKKEN2-20212823940238971328743138345177332
BAKKEN1-202131302162999716360590864758910001
BAKKEN12-202031360053603619162627884918611997
BAKKEN11-202030332143321117355575044486511062
BAKKEN10-20202627914284141766746557360059126
BAKKEN9-2020151539116002968930778218638786
BAKKEN8-202021276039614371204225
BAKKEN7-20202524160249261367137831339413726
BAKKEN6-202025550256152137
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-2020100059058
BAKKEN3-20200000000
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-20191531797172104710430
BAKKEN10-20192823954235581110335472306444655
BAKKEN9-20193026724270941425039711340095571
BAKKEN8-201931371873660717898569502814828675
BAKKEN7-20193136816367841910961199061190
BAKKEN6-2019111249912321655918743018741
BAKKEN5-20190010350000
BAKKEN4-20199008359000
BAKKEN3-201931103504895110801108

Updating A Nice XTO George Federal Well In Lost Bridge -- August 16, 2021

This page will not be updated. This well is tracked here.

The well:

Prior entry:

  • 31964, IA/2,823, XTO, Bang Federal 21X-19E, Lost Bridge, 4 sections; t7/18; cum 142K 3/19;

Updated:

  • 31964, 2,823, XTO, Bang Federal 21X-19E, Lost Bridge, 4 sections; t7/18; cum 234K 6/21;

Production profile:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-202130987610101107481742678889478
BAKKEN5-20213117090169191589329592029480
BAKKEN4-20212613787136551399820416020316
BAKKEN3-202112521250945370743407409
BAKKEN2-20210000000
BAKKEN1-2021001540000
BAKKEN12-20202164096530730510483010443
BAKKEN11-20203015308155651317426369026285
BAKKEN10-20203115670154701319125963025883
BAKKEN9-20201685108178665513054013006
BAKKEN8-20200000000
BAKKEN7-20200000000
BAKKEN6-20200000000
BAKKEN5-20200000000
BAKKEN4-20200000000
BAKKEN3-20200000000
BAKKEN2-20200000000
BAKKEN1-20200000000
BAKKEN12-20190000000
BAKKEN11-20190000000
BAKKEN10-20190000000
BAKKEN9-20190000000
BAKKEN8-20190000000
BAKKEN7-20190000000
BAKKEN6-20190000000
BAKKEN5-20190000000
BAKKEN4-201900660000
BAKKEN3-201964766510512430865835255121
BAKKEN2-20192828009281272714744085596838077
BAKKEN1-20192826756266082174836455510131303
BAKKEN12-20181617572171971855726709402222658
BAKKEN11-2018001130000
BAKKEN10-20181310852109431084715643520310417
BAKKEN9-20182014406148751467919831200517805
BAKKEN8-20183024082239842481833922190031986
BAKKEN7-20188160461547115358210002096
BAKKEN6-20182003970000

Off Line Nine Months -- Now Back On Line -- Thelma Federal -- XTO -- August 16, 2021

The well:

  • 17397, 1,290, XTO, Thelma Federal 11X-20, Lost Bridge, t6/09; cum 261K 6/21;

Recent production:

PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN6-202130197420883216221302023
BAKKEN5-202131223921063282251302316
BAKKEN4-202121162814072441182601691
BAKKEN3-2021292277248927052564722239
BAKKEN2-202153000449346102202
BAKKEN1-20210000000
BAKKEN12-20200000000
BAKKEN11-20200000000

Notes From All Over And None Of Them Worth Reading -- A Very, Very Slow Monday -- August 16, 2021

Updates

August 17, 2021: in an earlier post, I suggested we will see heads roll in Washington, DC, over the Afghanistan debacle. I suggested we will start seeing internecine fighting, and perhaps a circular firing squad. It looks like The Wall Street Journal has weighed in. Link here.  In other news, it is being reported that Biden has not spoken with one other world leader during this debacle.

Original Post

Monday morning, incredibly slow news day. The president is on vacation; the war is over; ticker tape parade in Kabul later this week. Items below are all I could find and I don't think any of them are worth reading.

I'm going to have a second cup of 26-cent coffee, watch Lana Del Rey bootlegged videos, and .... well, that's about all. I'll start with Sun Stare, apparently premiered July 24, 2021.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

WMT: stock popped last week. It was rumored that the Taliban would be opening a new Walmart in Kabul. Earnings out tomorrow. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here

Global warming: the latest WSJ op-ed, which I have not read (yet). Here for the archives. Link here

Michael Malice over at twitter: I'm still confused. Was the Afghanistan debacle due to systemic racism or to climate change? Link here

Merger: Woodside has confirmed it's in discussions with BHP -- Woodside could acquire BHP's entire petroleum business -- all stock deal. Link here.

If the deal were to go through, this would creat a new international super duper independent built for scale and resilience, with a long-term focus on LNG but exposure in the medium term to high-margin, deepwater (GOM) oil.

Merger: Santos' has proposed a merger with Oil Search. Same link.

Four Wells Coming Off Confidential List; WTI Drops Below $67 -- August 16, 2021

WTI drops below $67 (again). Traders fear Taliban will flood the market with crude oil to destroy the US shale companies.

Active rigs:

$66.87
8/16/202108/16/202008/16/201908/16/201808/16/2017
Active Rigs23*12615855

*Current rig count posted at COB on DAR.

Wells coming off confidential list:

Monday, August 16, 2021: 8 for the month, 19 for the quarter, 199 for the year:

  • 37407, conf,  CRL, Gale 14-32HSL, Cedar Coulee, no production data,
  • 22653, conf, WPX, Charles Blackhawk 31-30HZ, Heart Butte, no production data,

Sunday, August 15, 2021: 6 for the month, 17 for the quarter, 197 for the year:

  • 37842, conf, WPX, Charles Blackhawk 31-30HDL, Heart Butte, no production data,

Saturday, August 14, 2021: 5 for the month, 16 for the quarter, 196 for the year:

  • 37941, conf, CLR, Bang 3033H1, Cedar Coulee, no production data,

RBN Energy: how midstreamers are reducing their pipelines' GHG impact (FWIW), part 3

Every day, midstream companies in North America transport massive volumes of crude oil, natural gas, NGLs, and refined products to market. Without their pipelines, economic activity would rapidly grind to a halt. Still, environmental critics and ESG-conscious investors and lenders are quick to point out that the commodities that midstreamers pipe are among the leading sources of greenhouse gas emissions, and that, at the very least, pipeline companies should be reducing or even offsetting the carbon dioxide (CO2) and other GHGs associated with operating their networks. That’s now happening in a big way — and in a variety of ways — as we discuss in today’s blog.