Saturday, September 21, 2019

The CLR Wells In Banks Oil Field Are Simply Incredible -- Here's Another One -- September 21, 2019

The well:
  • 30253, 3,225, CLR, Pasadena 6-2H1, 78 stages, 11 million lbs, Banks, t10/17; cum 391K 7/19; 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Another Incredible CLR Well In Banks Oil Field -- September 21, 2019

The well:
  • 30965, 2,293, CLR, Uhlman Federal 2-7H1, 61 stages; 7.8 million lbs; Banks,  t4/18; cum 306K 7/19;
Production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

Another Incredible CLR Well In Banks Oil Field -- September 21, 2019

The well:
  • 30966, 2,466, CLR, Pittsburgh3-7H, Banks, 60 stages; 11.9 million lbs sand, t4/18; cum 304K 7/19; production profile:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

OXY Selling Assets -- September 21, 2019

From Rigzone. Data points:
  • prospective buyers: Blackstone Group Inc. and Apollo Global Management
    • Apollo would invest through Spartan Energy Acquisition Corp, a special purpose acquisition vehicle
  • other prospective buyers: Global Infrastructure Partners and KKR & Co
  • asset: Western Midstream Partners LP
    • 15,200 miles of oil and gas pipelines
    • six dozen (72) processing and treatment facilities in the midwest and Texas
  • sounds exactly like something Warren Buffett might like
    • and he was in on the OXY deal
  • asset owned by and being sold by: Occidental Petroleum Corp
  • could be finalized by end of  year
  • asset value: publicly traded -- $12 billion
  • but often bought at a premium -- would dwarf the recent Energy Transfer / SemGroup $5 billion deal
  • Occidental Petroleum acquired a majority stake in the company via its purchase last month of Anadarko Petroleum Corp., which had formed the company to house its pipeline operations. The potential divestiture would help Occidental meet its goal of selling $10 billion to $15 billion in assets over the next two years to pay down debt.
I find this fascinating on so many levels. Most fascinating: why is Warren Buffett not rumored to be interested?

Link here.

2009: Warren Buffett bought BNSF in a deal valued at $44 billion.

Link here: Kinder Morgan and Warren Buffett.

Going To The Store To Get Some Pork Rinds

Global Warming Predictions -- September 21, 2019



Here is the source for numbers 1-27. As you will see, the individual sources are not crackpots, but scientific studies and media reports on “expert” predictions. The sources for numbers 28-41 are linked individually.
  1. 1967: Dire Famine Forecast By 1975
  2. 1969: Everyone Will Disappear In a Cloud Of Blue Steam By 1989 (1969)
  3. 1970: Ice Age By 2000
  4. 1970: America Subject to Water Rationing By 1974 and Food Rationing By 1980
  5. 1971: New Ice Age Coming By 2020 or 2030
  6. 1972: New Ice Age By 2070
  7. 1974: Space Satellites Show New Ice Age Coming Fast
  8. 1974: Another Ice Age?
  9. 1974: Ozone Depletion a ‘Great Peril to Life
  10. 1976: Scientific Consensus Planet Cooling, Famines imminent
  11. 1980: Acid Rain Kills Life In Lakes
  12. 1978: No End in Sight to 30-Year Cooling Trend
  13. 1988: Regional Droughts (that never happened) in 1990s
  14. 1988: Temperatures in DC Will Hit Record Highs
  15. 1988: Maldive Islands will Be Underwater by 2018 (they’re not)
  16. 1989: Rising Sea Levels will Obliterate Nations if Nothing Done by 2000
  17. 1989: New York City’s West Side Highway Underwater by 2019 (it’s not)
  18. 2000: Children Won’t Know what Snow Is
  19. 2002: Famine In 10 Years If We Don’t Give Up Eating Fish, Meat, and Dairy
  20. 2004: Britain will Be Siberia by 2024
  21. 2008: Arctic will Be Ice Free by 2018
  22. 2008: Climate Genius Al Gore Predicts Ice-Free Arctic by 2013
  23. 2009: Climate Genius Prince Charles Says we Have 96 Months to Save World
  24. 2009: UK Prime Minister Says 50 Days to ‘Save The Planet From Catastrophe’
  25. 2009: Climate Genius Al Gore Moves 2013 Prediction of Ice-Free Arctic to 2014
  26. 2013: Arctic Ice-Free by 2015
  27. 2014: Only 500 Days Before ‘Climate Chaos’
  28. 1968: Overpopulation Will Spread Worldwide
  29. 1970: World Will Use Up All its Natural Resources
  30. 1966: Oil Gone in Ten Years
  31. 1972: Oil Depleted in 20 Years
  32. 1977: Department of Energy Says Oil will Peak in 90s
  33. 1980: Peak Oil In 2000
  34. 1996: Peak Oil in 2020
  35. 2002: Peak Oil in 2010
  36. 2006: Super Hurricanes!
  37. 2005 : Manhattan Underwater by 2015
  38. 1970: Urban Citizens Will Require Gas Masks by 1985
  39. 1970: Nitrogen Buildup Will Make All Land Unusable
  40. 1970: Decaying Pollution Will Kill all the Fish
  41. 1970s: Killer Bees!

Fake News, Slow News Day, Or Both -- You Decide. September 21, 2019

Maybe if they put a charging unit near the new refinery going up next to the park ...

Trump Administration Will Pay Apple Back For Chinese Tariffs Already Paid -- What A Great Country -- September 21, 2019

Later: US regulators approve waivers for Apple

From "The Daily Note" some weeks ago; does anyone remember this "dinner"?
August 19, 2019, T+30: Trump's popularity ebbs and flow. Recently his popularity has been ebbing. He had dinner with Tim Cook over the weekend. It must have gone well based on Trump's tweets. Let's see if Trump's poll numbers turn around.
Gee, I wonder what they talked about? Link at WSJ.

From the linked article:
The Trump administration has given Apple Inc. AAPL a reprieve from tariffs on 10 items, including a power supply and a logic board, that are imported from China.

They were among the $200 billion worth of Chinese imports first targeted for tariffs in September 2018.

The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative on Friday granted Apple exemptions on its Magic Mouse 2, Magic Trackpad 2 and various internal components. The exclusions cover a time period from September 2018 to August 2020, and the U.S. will refund tariffs already paid.
Macrumors has not yet posted this story; I can't wait to see the snarky comments. 

Small Illinois Cities Going "Bankrupt" -- ZeroHedge -- September 21, 2019

I track the "doomsday" stories here.

"Doomsday: US Cities" here.

Add East St Louis, and other Illinois cities to the list. At zerohedge:
On Tuesday, the East St. Louis’ firefighter pension fund demanded that Illinois Comptroller Susana Mendoza intercept more than $2.2 million of East St. Louis city revenues so they could be diverted to the pension fund.

The fund trustees said the city shorted firefighter pensions by $880,000 in 2017 and another $1.3 million in 2018. Under a 2011 pension law, the state comptroller gained the powers to intercept city revenues on behalf of police and fire pension funds shorted by their municipalities.

Harvey was the first municipality to run afoul of the intercept law. North Chicago, a Chicago suburb of 30,000, was the second. Now it’s East St. Louis’ turn.

Back when Harvey was first intercepted last year, Wirepoints reported that comptroller confiscations could wreak havoc on hundreds of Illinois communities, potentially creating a domino effect. Hundreds of Illinois’ 650 pension funds have not received their statutorily required contributions from their respective cities in recent years, meaning the intercept law could go into wide usage under a broader crisis scenario. In the most recent analysis of Illinois Department of Revenue data, nearly half of the 650 funds were not properly funded in 2017 (see details below).

That domino effect could be exacerbated given that municipalities have virtually no control over their own pension funds. State law sets all the rules and pensions are protected by the Illinois Constitution, meaning that in a market downturn, the pension funds may have little choice but to demand more intercepts.

The East St. Louis firefighter fund has certified to the comptroller that the municipality didn’t fully pay its required contributions to the pension fund in 2017 and 2018. Now the Comptroller has 60 days to decide whether that’s correct. After that, it can begin confiscating East St. Louis revenues. The request by the lawyers of the firefighter fund can be found here.

The intercept law was first utilized in 2018, when Harvey, Illinois, revenues were garnished to pay the city’s police and firefighter pension funds.

That intercept of nearly $3.3 million led to the layoff of 40 public safety workers so the city could avoid insolvency. The city found it couldn’t simultaneously pay for both current workers and pensioners. The city and the pension plans eventually reached a deal that relieved some of the pressure on the city.
Such zerohedge stories as these precede mainstream by six to twelve months.  And, then, often, only in regional newspapers.

By the way, North Las Vegas was in the same (bankruptcy) boat several years ago. It was on my "doomsday" list. But a new CFO turned it around.


Note to the Granddaughters

Busy, busy weekend. Just some of the activities.

High school "prom" for the oldest granddaughter who will also be setting up the venue.

The middle granddaughter's soccer team beat a highly ranked Oklahoma team today, 3 - 0. Olivia scored one goal (she is a mid-fielder, not a forward), and assisted on a second goal. Overheard from another parent: "Olivia was on fire today."

Finally, Sophia making pancakes:

Week 38: September 15, 2019 -- September 21, 2019

Top international non-energy story:
Top international energy story:
Top national non-energy story:
Top national energy story:
Top North Dakota non-energy story:

Top North Dakota energy story:
Geoff Simon's top North Dakota energy stories:
  • North Dakota petro-chem facility talk continues
  • Grant award for Project Tundra
  • Oil and gas industry turning the Bakken into a steady Eddie
  • TENORM landowner notices out of date; meeting moved to October, 2019
  • National Parks Conservation Assn sues state department over proposed refinery
  • Road restrictions in place
  • Watford City honored as "City of the Years" from ND League of Cities
  • Commentary: federal EV subsidies "on the road to nowhere" 
  • New scientific study shows no link between fracking and health problems

The Bakken Is Like A Box Of Chocolates -- One Never Knows What One Will Get - September 21, 2019

First things first: a huge thanks to a Williston, ND, reader who "schooled" me this morning. I completely missed yesterday's daily activity report. I failed to scroll down to see that the report was in fact "there." So, yesterday's daily activity report has been updated

Six producing wells (DUCs) reported as completed:
  • 34290, 860, XTO, FBIR Walker 31X-36F, Heart Butte, t6/19; cum 15K over 32 days;
  • 34347, 353, XTO, FBIR Walker 31X-36DXA, Heart Butte, t6/19; cum 65K in 30 days;
  • 33998, 183, XTO, FBIR Walker 31X-36D, Heart Butte, t6/19; cum --;
  • 35270, 697, Petroshale, Bear Chase 1TFH, Spotted Horn, t6/19; cum 40K over 35 days;
  • 35269, 958, Petroshale Bear Chase 1MBH, Spotted Horn, t6/19; cum 60K over 41 days;
  • 35271, 1,176, Petroshale, Bear Chase 2MBH, Spotted Horn, t6/19; cum 40K over 33 days; 
Those are some of the "worst" IPs I've ever seen for DUCs. Incredibly, across the board, awful numbers, including the last one, #35271.

But then looking a bit deeper, it turns out they are all great wells.

XTO: here, hold my beer -- 

  • 34347, 353, XTO, FBIR Walker 31X-36DXA, Heart Butte, t6/19; cum 65K in 30 days; production -- 
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare

From the well file:
  • spud: January 20, 2018
  • total drilling days: 18 (two times longer than "standard")
  • target: middle Bakken
  • vertical: it looks like about 9 days
  • horizontal: about 6 days
  • trips: five or six
  • background gas: 500 - 4,500 units
  • ideal target zone: 14' intervale of silty sandstone and intermittent packstone, initally 10' belwo the upper Bakken shale; 
  • phenomenal work by the roughnecks and the geologists: 100% of the uncased borehole in the 14' middle Bakken ideal target
  • cease drilling: April 7, 2018
  • completion: NDIC has not yet posted frack data; FracFocus has not yet posted data;
So, we have a lousy IP (353) and an incredibly good well, 65K over 30 days.

Swedes Making Texas Great -- Septmeber 21, 2019

Readers know I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken.

I am appropriately exuberant about the US.

And, I am similarly appropriately exuberant about Texas.

It (Texas) simply never quits.

Day in, day out there are more and more leaf patterns in the pot of tea suggesting that on many, many levels, the US will continue to become more balkanized. On one level that includes prosperity, economy, and growth. It is clear that the gap between states that favor growth and promote growth and those that don't will widen.

The tea leaves suggest the following big states are not pro-growth:
  • New York
  • California
  • Washington
  • Oregon
  • Minnesota
On the other hand, the tea leaves suggest the following big states do promote growth:
  • Texas
  • Georgia
  • North Carolina
  • Florida
I was reminded of that when I saw this headline article -- front page of the Dallas Morning News: Ericsson will build its first US 5G smart manufacturing plant in Lewisville, Texas, in early 2020. Link here and here.
  • Lewisville is ten minutes up the road from where we live
  • it is literally a George Washington silver dollar toss across the "freeway" from DFW airport
  • Ericsson's North American headquarters is located in Plano, TX, just a few more miles up the road, north of Dallas
  • this will be a 300,000-square-feet facility
  • initially: 100 full-time employees; eventually, 400
  • will receive nearly $4 million from the Texas Enterprise Fund
  • cost of project: aobut $134 million
  • on South Valley Parkway near state highway 121
One word: huge.

Last (?) Update On The Navajo Generating Station -- September 21, 2019

Today, the "Navajo Page" search on the blog, just some of the hits.
So, where do we stand on this generation station? From a google search today:

From wiki:
in 2017, the utility operators of the power station voted to close the facility when the lease expires in 2019.  In March 2019, the Navajo Nation ended efforts to buy the plant and continue running it after the lease expires.
The reason they ended the efforts to save the plant was because the environmental requirements were impossible to meet.

I posted all that because a reader told me he just returned from visiting the area and took a boat tour of Lake Powell. He mentioned that the water level is up 53 feet from April, 2019 (this year) to September 9, 2019 (this year) --- summer months, note. The reader mentioned that they were told that the Navajo (Page) Generating Station generated (note the past tense) more than twice the electricity than the Glenn Powell Dam and the Hoover Dam.


It will be interesting to see utility costs over the next five years for Nevada, Arizona, and California.  

Another WPX Ruby Well In Antelope Field Is Producing -- September 21, 2019

This page will not be updated; these wells are tracked elsewhere.

The WPX Ruby wells in Antelope-Sanish are tracked here.

Another of these wells is reporting production:
  • 36089, SI/NC, WPX, Ruby 31-30HEL, Antelope, first production, 6/19; cum 21K over 38 days;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare