Monday, September 16, 2019

Another Record -- July, 2019, Data -- North Dakota Sets Second Consecutive Monthly Production Record

For the archives: this data was released on Monday, September 16, 2019, the first business day after the Iranian drone attack on Saudi Arabia taking out almost 6 million bopd production/export. Throughout the day, the price of WTI has been climbing slowly and is now trading up almost $8/bbl, up almost 15%, and trading at $62.78. Brent:
  • up: 14.90%
  • up: $8.97/bbl
  • trading at: $69.19
Breaking news: Saudi Arabia shuts light oil pipeline to Bahrain  after attack. Reuters. Data points:
  • Bahrain is now short upwards of 230,000 bopd
  • Bahrain (Bapco) is working to secure vessels to bring in about 2 million bbls of Saudi crude as a result of the pipeline shutdown
  • Bapco:
    • shut down 22,000 bpd unit at its Sitrah refiney today (Monday)
    • another 22,000 bpd unit also reduced run rates to 45%
  • three fields identified as being compromised by attack on Abqaiq:
  • Ghawar
  • Shaybah
  • Khurais
Tea leaves: it now appears Saudi Aramco will face weeks before the majority of supply from the giant Abqaiq plant is restored. The fact that the price of oil continues to climb throughout the day suggests that things are worse than first reported. "Alfalfa" apologist says Saudi Arabia is "simply re-tooling." LOL.

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The Director's Cut
Data For July, 2019 
North Dakota Oil and Natural Gas Production

Disclaimer: usual disclaimer applies. As usual, this is done very, very quickly. It is not proofread. There will be factual and typographical errors on this page. If this is important to you, go to the source.

A huge, huge "thank you" to Lynn Helms and his staff at the NDIC getting this information out in a timely and transparent manner. I am not aware of any other state that does such a good job providing such data. 

Link here.

Crude oil production:
  • July, 2019, preliminary: 1,442,459 bopd -- new all-time high -- up 1.2% month-over-month
  • June, 2019, final: 1.425,230 bopd (previous all-time high)
Gas production:
  • July, 2019, preliminary: 2,947,892 MCF/day, also a new all-time high; up 2.2% month-over-month
  • June, 2019, final: 2,885,293 MCF/day
BOE, July, 2019, preliminary:
  • natural gas: 2,947,892 MCF/day = 491,233 boe
  • crude oil: 1,442,459 bopd
  • total boe, preliminary for July, 2019: 1.933692 boepd
Producing wells:
  • July, 2019, preliminary: 15,943 (another new all-time high)
  • June, 2019, 15,752
Permitting:
  • August, 2019: 127
  • July, 2019: 141
  • June, 2019: 127
Rig count:
  • Today: 62 (all-time high was 218 on 5/29/12)
  • August: 62
  • July: 57
  • June: 63
New feature on the daily activity report: Fort Berthold Reservation partitioned out

Completions:
  • July, 2019, preliminary: 114
  • June, 2019, 102 (revised)
  • May, 2019, 113 (final)
Gas capture:
  • statewide, captured: 77%
  • statewide, captured: 
    • July, 2019: 2,276,856 MCF/day
    • all time high was May, 2019: 2,287,761 MCF/day
    • FBIR Bakken:
      July, 2019, captured: 68%
Off line, to end of June:

For break-even prices in the Bakken, see the screenshot from the Director's Cut a month ago (look at the breakeven price for oil in Mountrail County):

4 comments:

  1. Threatening to break 1.5 MM bopd before end of 2018. Come on, ND, you can do it!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. BOE is approaching 2 million boepd. Who wudda thought?

      Delete
    2. An oldie, but goodie:

      http://theoildrum.com/node/3868

      "3. Because of the highly variable nature of shale reservoirs, the characteristics of the historical Bakken production, and the fact that per-well rates seem to have peaked, it seems unlikely that total Bakken production will exceed 2x to 3x current rate of 75,000 BOPD."

      A year later he published another negative article, failing to specifically mention the previous fail.

      http://theoildrum.com/node/5928

      "Admittedly, I was a bit hasty in my prediction of peak rate. However, I will go out on another limb and say that 1 million barrels per day is going to be really tough, especially if the decline rates mentioned by a poster above are wide spread. Let's hope you're right and I'm wrong. If it did reach 1 million barrels per day, it would absolutely be "moving the needle" on national production." [In comments after being challenged.]

      Never heard from Mr. Piccolo again...

      Delete
    3. I'll come back to this later. I'm going to pick up Sophia from daycare.

      But yes, I recall this exchange with Mr Piccolo and I think I even referenced it on the blog years ago.

      Delete