Energy Transition Is Over; We Just Don't Know It Yet -- October 22 ,2023

Locator: 45787RENEWABLES. 

The energy transition is over -- we just don't know it yet. Peter Zeihan.

Exhibit A.

Also:

How bad is it for EVs?

Here are the numbers for Polestar, Rivian, Lucid, Arrival, Canoo, 1-year and 5-year, as of October 20, 2023, share price:

• Polestar: down 51%; down 67%; yesterday, down 8%;
• Rivian: down 48%; down 87%; yesterday, down 3%;
• Lucid: down  68%; down 57%; yesterday, down 1.4%;
• Arrival: down 97%; down 99.8%; yesterday, down 5%;
• Canoo: down 81%; down 97%; yesterday, down 6%;

Wind and solar, October 20, 2023 

Today: solar stocks plunge. Link here.

Wind is expensive. Link here.

The Dutch have just signed a 27-year LNG deal with Qatar, Shell. As in Royal Dutch Shell. My hunch: Dutch investors got tired of their investments in renewable energy.

I Need A New Tag For BP -- Doing This For Twenty-Three Years -- February 3, 2023

Link here. 

Link here.

BP: oops, we did it again!

Oil's pipe dream. 

Projections: BP or XOM?

Why I haven't wasted time posting BP's projections. 

I doubt they did this on their renewables.

BP's prediction in 2020 of peak oil demand was wrong.

BP goes green. Two years ago.

BP's failed renewable energy predictions.

Transition to renewable energy won't lead to lower energy prices -- BP.

Forbes, August 4, 2020:

prwatch, May 3, 2010:

They've been doing this for twenty-three years and still aren't making money? ! ? ! -- LOL.

Solar Energy After The Sun Goes Down? Not So Much And Other Factoids -- California Governor Gavin Newsom -- August 17, 2020

From Breitbart, August 17, 2020 (https://www.breitbart.com/environment/2020/08/17/california-gov-gavin-newsom-time-to-sober-up-about-green-renewable-energy-flaws/):

California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Monday, August 17, 2020,  that the state had to “sober up” about the fact that renewable energy sources had failed to provide enough power for the state at peak demand, and needed “backup” and “insurance” from other sources.

Newsom addressed journalists and the public in the midst of ongoing electricity blackouts that began on Friday, as hundreds of thousands of Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E) customers in northern and central California lost power.

There is currently high demand for electricity across the state, as the entire West Coast has been hit by a heat wave and record-breaking temperatures.

One reason the state lacked power, officials admitted, was its over-reliance on “renewables” — i.e. wind and solar power.

There was not enough wind to keep turbines going, Newsom said, and cloud cover and nightfall restricted solar power. [Brilliant.]

“While we’ve had some peak gust winds,” he explained, “wind gust events across the state have been relatively mild.”

That was good for fighting fires, he said, but bad for the “renewable portfolio” in the state’s energy infrastructure. In addition, high demand for electricity in the evening hours, coupled with less input from solar plants, created strain. [Wildfires or electricity.]

On Friday, Newsom said, the state had fallen about 1,000 megawatts short; on Saturday, it fell 450 megawatts short. Sunday saw only “modest or minor” interruptions. But on Monday, he said, the state would be 4,400 megawatts short of “where we believe we need to be.”

“This next few days, we are anticipating being challenged,” Newsom said, as the heat wave was predicted to last through Wednesday.

“We failed to predict and plan these shortages,” Newsom admitted boldly, “and that’s simply unacceptable.” He said he took responsibility for the crisis, and for addressing it immediately, so that “we never come back into this position again.”

Much more at the link.

ISO California. Tomorrow:

The graphic:

• oval C: anticipated peak demand tomorrow -- 50,485 MW
• oval B: historical peak -- 50,270 MW
• oval A: available capacity today which is probably similar for tomorrow -- 50,393

See also this post from August 15, 2020.

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When It Rains, It Pours
More from Breitbart on Governor Newsom and the rolling blackouts (https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/08/17/nolte-blackouts-force-newsom-to-admit-green-energy-falls-short/).

Blackouts in the failing state of Democrat-run California have forced Governor Gavin Newsom to admit green every is falling short.

“Newsom says the transition away from fossil fuels has left California with a gap in the reliability of its energy system. He says the state must examine its reliance on solar power and how that fits into its broader energy portfolio,” reports the San Francisco Chronicle’s Alexei Koseff.

“Today we are anticipating substantially greater need for energy,” Newsom said at a Monday press conference. Per Koseff, he added that this greater need is “about 4,400 megawatts short of what the state needs. That’s a ten times greater shortfall than Saturday. ” “We failed to predict and plan these shortages and that’s simply unacceptable,” Newsom somehow said without bursting into flames.

Give me a break.

No one “failed to predict” anything.

California has had decades to prepare for this. No one failed to predict it. They only failed to prepare for it.

The writing has been on the wall since 2001 when the state was hit with a series of massive blackouts and soaring electricity prices. The result was the successful recall of then-Democrat Governor Gray Davis in late 2003. He was replaced by the equally incompetent Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Over the weekend, the former-Golden State was hit with its second day of rolling blackouts. As my colleague Joel Pollak reported at the time, “the state’s power grid struggled to deal with a heat wave that caused a surge in consumer demand.”

The blackout hit 220,000 homes in the North Bay area.

While there’s nothing funny about people losing power during a heat wave, it is still hard not to laugh at a state that is so scientifically backwards. The luddites were thwarted by a lack of wind and clouds.

Yes, wind and clouds.

Officials blamed the “unexpected loss of a 470-megawatt power plant Saturday evening, as well as the loss of nearly 1,000 megawatts of wind power,” the San Jose Mercury News reported. In addition, cloud cover over the desert meant solar energy was in short supply. What are we, savages?

What is this, the third world?

No one has to live like this in the 21st century.

All you need to do is build more power and nuclear plants and the problem is solved.

Yes, it really is that easy.

Much more at the link.

Reminder: September Is The Worst Month For Investors -- CNBC Talking Heads And Others Last Week -- Market Up Almost 200 Points In Early Trading -- The Market And Energy Page, T+234 -- September 11, 2017 -- The Trump Rally Continues

Disclaimer: the usual disclaimer applies.

NYSE:

• new highs -- 165, including -- CenterPoint Energy; Coca-Cola (owned a long time ago); McDonalds (I've never owned; never will); SRE (whoo-hoo); Steris (owned a long time ago)
• new lows: 9 

The month is not yet over. Do you remember all those stories just a week or so ago "reminding" us that September was always the worst month for investments.

Today, a crawler on CNBC says that the Dow is one percent (1%) away from its record intra-day high. The Dow is up almost 200 points, the Nasdaq is up 55 points; the S&P is up 17 points.

• 52-week high: 22,179.11
• at mid-day: 22,027.36

No government shut down. Debt limit raised. Money flowing to Texas post-Hurricane Harvey. Alt-right president making deals with alt-left president. I wonder what Alexander Hamilton would advise current Secretary of the Treasury?

Later: S&P 500 closes at an all-time time. 

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Warm Heart

From inc.com:

The company says that a Tesla owner in a mandatory evacuation zone required another ~30 more miles of range to optimize his evacuation route in the traffic and they reached out to Tesla who agreed to a temporary access to the full 75 kWh of energy in the battery pack, an upgrade that has cost between $4,500 and $9,000 depending on the model and time of upgrade.

Considering the 15 kWh (30 to 40 additional miles) could also be useful to other owners affected by Irma, Tesla decided to also temporarily unlock other vehicles with the same software-lock battery packs in the region.

An upgrade to get an extra 35 miles for $9,000. Am I missing something here?

An extra 35 miles gets this much press? For one owner? It was one of the top ten finance stories over at Google Finance over the weekend and into today. Certainly there must be more going on. 

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What, Me Worry?

China and EVs: Chinese investors shrug off Chinese talk about banning conventional gasoline automobile engines -- Bloomberg. 

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What Goes Up, Must Come Down

US Solar bracing for first decline as demand for rooftop solar drops -- Bloomberg. This about says it all:

• residential installations slipped 17% in second quarter 
• industry sees two down years, and that’s without panel tariffs

By the way, at another site it was suggested that the amount of rooftop solar energy that was added in 2016 was huge -- 8% greater than the year before. I thought the story sounded a bit fishy -- I was going to post it and say that 8% of zero was still zero, but decided not to post that. Now from that linked Bloomberg article:

Developers added a total of almost 2.4 gigawatts in the second quarter, putting the industry on pace to reach 12.4 gigawatts this year.

That’s down about 17 percent from a record 2016, and the research company expects another decline in 2018.

As I've said many, many times, the rooftop solar energy fad seems just like the aluminum siding fad I saw in North Dakota when I was growing up there many decades ago.

Market Down 1% -- One Day After US CEOs Say "Good-bye" To Trump -- August 17, 2017

I Never Promised You A Rose Garden, Lynn Anderson  

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California Gas-Fired Power Plant Files For Bankruptcy

I thought I had posted this story; maybe not.

The La Paloma natural gas plant in California filed for bankruptcy last December because it was not getting enough operating time to cover its costs due to solar and other renewable energy receiving preference.

The plant, which serves as back-up to the state’s renewable generating technologies, was also denied a reliability charge by the state that would have allowed it to continue to operate.

The owners project an annual loss of $39 million without a reliability contract or other support. In its bankruptcy filing, the plant owners listed assets of between $100 million and $500 million and liabilities of $500 million to $1 billion.[i] La Paloma is a 1200-megawatt merchant plant located 110 miles northwest of Los Angeles and is able to serve both the San Francisco and Los Angeles markets.

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Trump Scraps Plans For An Infrastructure Council

Link here. Most likely, prospective panel members said, "no."

Not All Is Going Well In The Solar Patch -- August 7, 2017; New Tesla Bonds? Junk Rated

Updates

August 12, 2017: apparently Tesla's JUNK bonds went at $1.8 billion for 5.3%. 

August 11, 2017: Tesla's JUNK bonds are over-subscribed; will pay 5.25%.

Original Post

Junk: Phil LeBeau, the #2 cheerleader (after Musk Melon) for Tesla was just on CNBC announcing the $1.5 billion bond Tesla offering. The bonds have received a JUNK rating. I could have missed it, but I don't think Phil LeBeau mentioned these bonds have a JUNK rating. Link here.

Following the announcement, Standard & Poor's reaffirmed its negative outlook for the automaker and assigned a "B-" rating for the bond issue - deep into junk credit territory. S&P also maintained its "B-" long-term corporate credit rating on Tesla.

Now, back to the solar patch story.

Now that President Obama is no longer in office, it appears that the mainstream media is feeling a bit more comfortable reporting stories suggesting not all is going well in the solar patch.

From the StarTribune (Minneapolis/St Paul):

• Sunvia: a Georgia solar-panel and solar-cell maker, filed for bankruptcy in April, 2017; Sunvia is majority-owed by a company in Hong Kong
• SolarWorld: Oregon, joined the suit; SolarWorld is a German company
• Ten K Solar: Minnesota's only solar-panel maker of any size; Bloomington; announced in May, 2017, it was getting out of the solar-panel business
• Heliene: based in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario; was left "out in the cold" (perhaps better said, left in the dark) when Silicon Energy, which manufactured panels for Heliene closed down

Meanwhile, St Louis Post-Dispatch reports that St Louis area companies are reeling from the bankruptcy filing of Sunvia.

I've always felt the solar panels being sold for residential rooftops reminded me of the aluminum siding craze in Williston, ND, when I was growing up there in the 50's and 60's.

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Note For The Granddaughters

Over the weekend I read a note suggesting that for three-year-olds, the "great room" in Goodnight Moon was particularly superb. I forget where I read that; perhaps in the "Review" section of The Wall Street Journal, but most likely somewhere else. Having toddlers name everything they see in the "great room" is quite compelling.

Today, coincidentally, I get this daily update from TutorTime where Sophia attends "school" and loves it:

Goodnight Moon, Margaret Wise Brown

So, Got Coal? How's That Solar Working Out, Abe? -- July 20, 2017

Updates

February 11, 2018: the biggest risk to coral reefs and Hawaii's tourism is not acid rain or global warming -- it's the cesspools of Hawaii.

Sewage from cesspools is seeping into some of Hawaii’s ocean waters, where it has been blamed for infections suffered by surfers and snorkelers. It is also entering the drinking water in part of the state, pushing nitrate levels close to the legal limit.

Hawaii has 88,000 cesspools across its eight major islands, more than any other state. Collectively, they deposit 53 million gallons of raw sewage into the ground every day.

More than 90% of the state’s drinking water comes from groundwater wells.

State lawmakers, who outlawed new cesspools in 2016, are scrambling to find a solution to the thousands that exist.

Replacing all of the state’s cesspools with alternate sewage systems would cost at least $1.75 billion, according to the health department.

Original Post 

From joannenova.com: fifty solar PV companies in Japan are already gone in 2017 as subsidies end. Coal is soaring. Actually, the story is even worse than the headline:

One hundred solar PV companies are forecast to collapse in Japan this year alone.

Up to 100 solar PV firms in Japan could face bankruptcy this year, with more than double the number of firms going bust in the first half of this year than the same period in 2016.

According to corporate credit research company Teikoku Databank, which surveys companies across various industries and has produced its third report on solar PV company bankruptcies, 50 companies in Japan’s solar sector have already gone out of business in the first six months of 2017.

While the market overall has rapidly expanded from the launch of the feed-in tariff (FiT) in July 2012, Teikoku Databank acknowledged that there has been a slowdown in deployment in the past couple of years as the government successively made cuts of 10% or more on an annual basis to the premium prices paid for solar energy fed into the grid.

This comes just days after another "green blog" noted that solar was  dying in Hawaii, also. This is the problem:

• solar needs huge subsidies to compete with coal
• subsidies cost governments money
• coal / natural gas utilities make profits without resorting to subsidies
• governments tax profits
• this is not rocket science

Even Jerry Brown's successor will figure this out.

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Speaking of Japanese Coal

Japan plans to build at least 45 new coal plants. From joannenova (same link as above):

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You Only Live Twice

You Only Live Twice, Nancy Sinatra

The Road To Hawaii -- July 17, 2017

When I was growing up in Williston in the 1960s, it was my perception (right, wrong, indifferent) that "aluminum siding" was the newest fad. I don't know how that all worked out but it sure seemed like there was a lot of hype about aluminum siding at the time.

I say all that because it reminds me of the residential-solar-roof industry today. Take a look at Hawaii. From greentechmedia.com:

For anyone in sales, there are two existential questions that need to be posed and answered: What's the market for what you're peddling, and how much market share can you expect to capture?

As the once-thriving rooftop solar industry in Hawaii painfully contracts, businesses like mine and others are being forced to seriously ponder those two questions.

In a state where there's by far more installed solar capacity per home and business than any other place in the nation, and still a high dependency on imported fossil fuels, how can it be that our solar coaster is slowing to a crippling crawl?

In a state that's pledged itself to 100 percent renewable in power generation by 2045, the first in the country to make such a commitment, how can it be that the bottom is dropping out of the rooftop solar market?

There is strong consensus among Hawaii energy stakeholders that bringing considerably more rooftop solar PV on-line is a good thing and a high priority. But with this year on pace to see the lowest numbers since 2010, we in the industry are wondering whether what we're experiencing now is the new normal, as major players disappear completely or see their PV sales revenues drop by as much as 80 to 90 percent.

Wow, if residential rooftop solar energy can't make it in Hawaii where utility costs are very, very high and there is an immense amount of sunshine year around, how will the rest of the world make out with solar energy?

Years ago, I posted an article about the fact that rooftop solar energy never pays for itself, or if it does, it takes up to 20 years, or something to that effect. There's a huge up-front cost of installing solar panels and one still has monthly utility bills. My hunch is that many homeowners who were early adopters are telling their neighbors that if they had to do it all over again, they would not install rooftop solar panels. 

Batteries are getting better, but they add significantly to the cost of solar energy. And like any battery, I assume they degrade over time, needing replacement.

Blue Hawaii, Elvis Presley

We'll Get Back To This Later -- This Is NOT Good News -- July 5, 2017

From the EIA -- see if you can spot the glaring omission in this EIA "tweet":

Based on EIA survey data for new, utility-scale electric generators (those with a capacity greater than one megawatt), capacity-weighted average construction costs for many generator types have fallen in recent years.

Annual changes in construction costs include the effects of differences in the geographic distribution of installed capacity between years, differences in technology types, and other changes in capital and financing costs…

The capacity-weighted cost of installing wind turbines was $1,661 per kilowatt (kW) in 2015, a 12% decrease from 2013…The cost of utility-scale solar photovoltaic generators declined 21% between 2013 and 2015, from $3,705/kW to $2,921/kW…The average cost of natural gas generators installed in 2015 was $696/kW, a 28% decline from 2013…Construction costs alone do not determine the economic attractiveness of a generation technology.

Other factors such as fuel costs (for generators that consume fuel), utilization rates, financial incentives, and state policies also affect project economics and, in turn, the kinds of power plants that are built. --- EIA

See this post. 

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Blogging Under Duress

PJM Provides Update On Efficiency Of Intermittent Energy -- May 24, 2017

From an earlier post:

Solar Energy: Nameplate Capacity Vs Achieved Renewable Energy Output 

The European solar energy experience:

• Germany: 78 GW / 10.4 GW (13.2%)
• Spain: 27.7 GW / 6.8 GW (24.4%)
• Italy: 27.1 GW / 4.4 GW (16.2%)
• UK: 16.7 GW / 4.0 GW (24.4%)
• France: 14.9 GW / 2.6 GW (17.3%
• Sweden: 5.5 GW / 1.2 GW (22%)
• Denmark: 5.4 GW / 1.4 GW (25.6%) 
• Rest of Europe: 39.5 GW / 7.9 GW (19.8%)

This is not news. It has been reported many times on the blog -- data sent to me be a regular reader -- that "achieved renewable energy output" vs nameplate capacity works out to about 25% at best.

Overall, the effective capacity factor in Europe for solar energy was 18%.

Does anyone know the similar number for natural gas? Answer: 87% 

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PJM

Note: an update to this PJM post is at this link, posted at 7:51 p.m. Central Time. 

The reader who sent me the link to the article linked below suggested:

a) the whole issue is a mess
b) the article is way more than any reasonable person with a life would want to know
c) the whole issue is a mess (oh, did I already say that?)

Whatever. Time to look up the definition of obfuscation.

From rtoinsider, some data points on the recent PJM auction to contract for electricity:

• wind: 13% capacity factor (CF)
• solar: 38% capacity factor (significantly exceeds results in Europe which suggests some fancy math)
• this was the first PJM auction that required year-round availability (N.B. wind and solar)
• prices have come down significantly, as much as 25% in most of the regional transmission organization (RTO) or PJM in this case
• last year: $100
• this year: $76.53
• ComEd (Illinois): $188.12 ($202.77 previously)
• Duke OH/KY: $130 this year
• MAAC: $86.04 ($100 last year) -- most of Pennsylvania
• EMAAC: $187.87 (less than $120 last year) -- EMAAC is New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland
• this is the first year in which all generation must be Capacity Performance (CP): must be available throughout the delivery year; faces stiff penalties for nonperformance (in other words, smart operators will have excess NG peakers to back-up wind (in summer) and solar (in winter)
• season demand response (DR) no longer allowed; PJM committed to 558 MW of demand reductions under price-responsive demand (PRD)
• electricity demand decreasing: PJM forecasts a 2.1% reduction in peak load
• "we have units that are at financial risk in the area that, if they retire, it could create a reliability issue" -- confidentiality restricted much more comment, but it sounds like they are talking about coal-fired plants
• PJM: for year 2020/21 has a 23.3% reserve margin; highest ever in the 14-year history of the auctioin (technically the BRA, Base Residual Auction); by regulation, requires a 16.6% reserve
• cost load: $7 billion in 2020/21 -- about the same as 2019/20
• new generation: 3,144 MW (UCAP); of that, about 2,824 MW was mostly natural gas combined cycle and combustion turbines (NG-CCCT) (think GE?)
• wind: 888 MW (6,828.5 MW nameplate capacity; 13% CF)
• solar: 125 MW (330 MW nameplate capacitiy: 38% CF)
• amount of intermittent resources offered as CP dropped by 3,400 MW from last year
• Exelon: third year in a row that TMI left the capacity auction empty handed; Three-Mile Island (TMI) now depends on Pennsylvania; TMI has not been profitable for five years

Disclaimer: I do this quickly; there will be typographical and factual errors. If this is important to you, go to the source. I understand about 2% of the entire article.

Wind: with a CF of 13%, I suppose that means that when you see 100 wind turbines, if everything was working as advertised by the wind farm developer, one would need only 13 turbines.

The Political Page, T+112 -- May 12, 2017 -- Germany's Atrocious History With Solar Energy

Apparently the US mainstream media can't find the "Rod Rosenstein" letter and based on their questions and statements about the letter, it appears some/many/most US journalists haven't read it. I do a lot of surfing on the net and I never came across the letter. A reader was able to find it over at BBC.com and sent me the link. Thank you.

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Microsoft, Again

While the NSA is looking for non-existent evidence for any collusion between the Trump campaign and Putin, malware/ransomware pretty much shuts down Great Britain's National Health Service and cripples computers worldwide. And where did the malware come from?

Cybersecurity experts said the malicious software works by exploiting a flaw in Microsoft software that was described in NSA documents stolen from the agency and leaked publicly in April by a criminal group called Shadow Brokers.

Many, many questions here: once Microsoft was aware of this flaw, did it take steps to provide a patch to Microsoft users to prevent this from happening? If so, I missed it. Glad I don't use Microsoft products. When does Apple report its 2Q17 earnings? LOL.

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Ebola -- It's Back

WHO declares new epidemic: Democratic Republic of Congo. Three dead. Data points:

• The disease was first identified in 1976
• The largest outbreak has been the recent epidemic in West Africa from December 2013 to January 2016 which killed more than 11,000 people
• In 2014, a three-month outbreak of Ebola in the the DR Congo killed 49 people
• It was declared no longer an emergency in March 2016

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Solar Energy: Nameplate Capacity Vs Achieved Renewable Energy Output 

The European solar experience:

• Germany: 78 GW / 10.4 GW (13.2%)
• Spain: 27.7 GW / 6.8 GW (24.4%)
• Italy: 27.1 GW / 4.4 GW (16.2%)
• UK: 16.7 GW / 4.0 GW (24.4%)
• France: 14.9 GW / 2.6 GW (17.3%
• Sweden: 5.5 GW / 1.2 GW (22%)
• Denmark: 5.4 GW / 1.4 GW (25.6%) 
• Rest of Europe: 39.5 GW / 7.9 GW (19.8%)

This is not news. It has been reported many times on the blog -- data sent to me be a regular reader -- that "achieved renewable energy output" vs nameplate capacity works out to about 25% at best.

Overall, the effective capacity factor in Europe for solar energy was 18%.

Does anyone know the similar number for natural gas? Answer: 87%

The chart for 2014:

Much, much more at the link. This will be re-posted at a stand-alone site and will also be archived.

For what it's worth, Germany's CO2 emissions increased in 2015 (the most recent data available) over that of 2014. Germany uses a lot of coal.

Just A Matter Of Time -- May 11, 2017

Germany's SolarWorld files for insolvency as prices fall.

German solar panel maker SolarWorld AG has filed for insolvency, citing the effect of falling prices in the industry.

The company said late Wednesday its management had concluded that "due to the ongoing price erosion and the development of the business, the company no longer has a positive going concern prognosis."

It added that the firm is "over-indebted" and therefore obliged to launch insolvency proceedings. The company filed for insolvency Thursday at a court in Bonn, where it is headquartered.

Solar panel makers in Europe have long struggled with tough competition from manufacturers in China in particular.

And reality.

Hyped News -- The EIA Continues To Make A Big Deal Out Of Non-Dispatchable Energy -- April 5, 2017

For the archives.

The EIA, via twitter, makes a big deal that the amount of US wind energy consumption has increased 20% year-over-year.

The graph is worth a thousand words. Twenty percent of zero is still zero.

Total energy consumption by source. Of all sources, geothermal, wind, and solar need to be combined if they were to even show up on the graph. If broken out separately, wind and solar would come close to rounding to zero.

The California Duck Curve -- Re-Visited -- March 6, 2017

See if you can find the word "dispatch" as in "dispatchable" on this page. 

This is pretty cool. This has to do with the post of just a couple of days ago regarding $1,000 / MWH electricity in California (vs the typical $30 / MWH cost). We've talked about incredibly high spikes in the cost of electricity in New England during the winter due to misguided energy policies; I forget, but I think we were talking of $300 - $800 / MWH spikes in price that can often occur overnight during cold snaps in New England.

In California, because of the reliance on solar and wind energy, those spikes can go upwards of $1,000/MWH.

Today, a reader sent me this link from The Economist of all things. Bottom line is this:

• California peak electricity use is between 3:00 p.m. and 10:00 p.m.
• solar energy "prematurely" peaks out at noon
• peak wind energy doesn't kick in until later in the evening /night

This is called a "duck curve." We talked about the "CALIFORNIA DUCK CURVE" on October, 22, 2015.

That was from Bloomberg. It looks like the folks over at The Economist finally got around to reporting it.

The Market And Energy Page, T+33; Photo Contest; Housing Sales -- Trump Rally -- February 22, 2017

Bullish bear: Dennis Gartman -- bullish on oil for the first time in five years. Sees upside of $6 to $8; downside, $2 - $3. Driving factor: WTI held despite record builds this past two weeks. On CNBC at 8:40 a.m. Central Time, February 22, 2017.

Bakken CAPEX: Whiting Petroleum nearly doubles its capital spending budget.

Zeits: natural gas update, over at SeekingAlpha.

EVs: The Economist bullish on EVs now that diesel is a dud.  Why I love to blog. Two days ago I posted a note about "dieselgate" in Europe (that latter link). Now, last night, The Economist is absolutely giddy about how fast EV popularity will surge (the former link).

Improving technology and tightening regulations on emissions from ICEs is about to propel electric vehicles (EVs) from a niche to the mainstream. After more than a century of reliance on fossil fuels, however, the route from petrol power to volts will be a tough one for carmakers to navigate.

The change of gear is recent. One car in a hundred sold today is powered by electricity. The proportion of EVs on the world’s roads is still well below 1%. Most forecasters had reckoned that by 2025 that would rise to around 4%. Those estimates are undergoing a big overhaul as carmakers announce huge expansions in their production of EVs. Morgan Stanley, a bank, now says that by 2025 EV sales will hit 7m a year and make up 7% of vehicles on the road. Exane BNP Paribas, another bank, reckons that it could be more like 11% (see chart). But as carmakers plan for ever more battery power, even these figures could quickly seem too low.

Reality:

The photo below was taken in Bowman, ND, this past week. Fisker hybrid/EVs were being driven from California to Minnesota for "road testing." They require "special chargers." And without the ability to re-charge their $100,000+ bricks, they need to fill up "canisters" of gasoline (sic) for the next leg of their trip. Story here.

I assume the U-Haul trailer that will carry the canisters of "gasoline" is not pictured. A U-Haul trailer is most likely needed because of lack of cargo space in this non-SUV, or maybe they will simply place the canisters in the back seat. The displaced passengers can call Uber.

Tell me again that EV popularity will surge.

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The Market

First Solar:

Late morning: Dow has turned slightly positive. In the big scheme of things, really, really quiet.

Opening: slightly negative. AAPL #1 in market value by a wide margin.

Existing home sales: 10-year high.  Trump rally.

Putting The Bakken Decline Rate In Perspective -- December 26, 2016

This is a link to an old article sent in by a reader. The story is from The [London] Telegraph four years ago, December 30, 2012. It has to do with wind farms, wind turbines, and economics. Data points:

• the wind industry and most analysts base wind energy economics on 20- to 25-year lifespan of the turbines
• the question is whether analysts factor in a decline rate 
• onshore wind farms generate electricity effectively for just 12 to 15 years
• offshore: the decline rate is even worse
• blades and/or turbines will need to be replaced more quickly than the industry estimates
• (yes, Virginia, the costs will be passed on to the consumer -- by regulation and by law)
• the "load factor" for wind turbines:
  24% in the first 12 months of operation
• 11% after 15 years
• "load factor": an efficiency rating; percentage of electricity actually produced vs theoretical maximum
• the subject has been discussed ad nauseum but the industry still gets away with it: promoters allowed to "sell" their product using theoretical maximums despite knowing that in actuality, the best one can expect is less than a fourth of that in the first, declining to a tenth just ten years later
• larger wind farms have systematically worse performance than smaller wind farms

Much more at the link.

The SEC meanwhile is going after Exxon for the way it values its reserves.

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More Fake News

I thought "they" were going to quit printing "fake news." More click bait: "2016 was the year solar panels finally became cheaper than fossil fuel. Just wait for 2017."

Not holding my breath. 

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Not Fake News

China has announced it will start paying less for renewable energy in light of decreased costs to install renewable energy projects. Bloomberg is reporting that China will cut tariffs by nearly 20% in 2017 for solar energy, and 15% for wind energy.

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Is Gartman Losing It?

I was looking for something else on the blog when I ran across this old post, which reminded me of a more recent post:

• crude is not going above $55 for years -- Gartman 
• Uber is "top threat" to oil -- Gartman

It started out as a trickle, but more and more media outlets are re-posting the story: there is a small, but influential, group of investors (these articles call them "speculators" placing bets (making investments) based on possibility of $100-oil as early as 2018. When I get around to it, I will post a link but that's not on my list of things to do this morning.

Solar? Why Do We Even Bother? -- December 13, 2016

Starting in 2017, I had planned to downplay solar / wind energy. I planned to never post a stand-alone post on renewable energy. But this is so egregious, I really had no choice.

Solar electricity? Why do we even bother.

How much US electricity is generated by solar energy? This is after decades of federal government arm-twisting, tax credits, grants, crony capitalism.

Here's the graphic.
 

Solar represents 5% of renewable. And renewable represents 13% of all US electricity.

0.05 x 0.13 = 0.0065 or 0.65%. Yes, that barely rounds to 1%.

Wind, at 35% of all renewables, is 7x that of solar. And wind?  0.35 x .13 = 4.6% of US generated electricity.

It turns out this graphic was previously posted.

Previous posts:

• Solar, in 2014: 0.4%. 
• Maybe 1%, rounded, in 2015, but it's a stretch.

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Best Christmas Gift Ever?

Maybe, maybe not. I don't know. I've had some nice gifts over the years.

But this is certainly in the top ten. It's an original, vintage Beats Dr Dre pair of headphones. After Apple bought Beats, "Dr Dre" came off the headphones, I am told. I don't know. Be that as it may, my daughter saw these vintage Beats Dr Dre headphones at a pawn shop in Denton, TX. She said she immediately knew -- my name was all over them.

Well, not my name, perhaps, but they are incredible. The quality is incredible. And the color .. what can I say?

One hundred years from now, on the "Antique Road Show," they will be worth thousands. Because they will come with a great story. 

Saudi Arabia's Break-Even Price $92; Will Drop To $80 In 2017 -- December 7, 2016

Pearl Harbor Day. See first comment and then this link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/one-died-at-pearl-harbor-the-other-lived-seventy-five-years-later-theyll-be-reunited/2016/12/05/79fdeee8-aaa0-11e6-977a-1030f822fc35_story.html?utm_term=.f4033163311e.

Trump: Time's magazine person of the year. 

The Recount: Day five of the Wisconsin recount is complete and Trump has gained 84 votes, while millions of dollars and countless hours of time are being squandered.

North Dakota is ranked #6 among all global crude oil plays for 2017 crude oil exploration  (posted previously). Of the 96 global crude oil plays, North Dakota is #6, Iraq (Kurdistan) is ranked #77, practically at the bottom of the list. Does that ranking matter? Let's see. 

From Reuters:

Exxon Mobil has pulled out of half of the six exploration blocks it operated in the Kurdistan region, the Iraq Oil Report reported. The oil company has walked away from its operations in the Qara Hanjeer, Arbat East, and Betwata blocks.

XOM is active in the Bakken through its subsidiary XTO which is the #2 operator in North Dakota based on net acreage. The breakeven price for Saudi Arabia is currently $93 and is forecast to drop to $80 in 2017. The breakeven price in the Bakken in the best spots currently active is well below $50.

And except for the DAPL, no wars are being fought in North Dakota.

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Brilliant

Trump is simply brilliant. After getting "everyone" excited about the Taiwan telephone call, he announces the nomination of Iowa governor Terry Branstad to be the US ambassador to CHINA. After alarming everyone with his Taiwan telephone call, he rewards CHINA by putting them at the top of the list: the first country to have the US ambassador named (after the US ambassador to the UN). This reassures China that their country is #1 on Trump's list of important countries.

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Global Warming Page

Cold records being set across the US. Much earlier than ever before. This follows Blanche, and so far, this "storm" is not even named. Chicago breaks 1940 snowfall record and the "storm" will continue. Seattle could see half of its annual rainfall in one day. Temperature plunge in the US; 35 degrees below normal across the entire country.

There has been no evidence of global warming in past 14 years. Sea levels rising? Arctic ice melting? Stories all over the place.  See "Daily Trump Thought" -- December 7, 2016.

Related? SunPower to cut 2,500 jobs on top of previous cuts.  Aluminum-roofing company having challenges navigating turbulence in the renewable energy business.This is 25% of its workforce -- and this is one industry where robots can't take the place of real humans.

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Active rigs:

	12/7/2016	12/07/2015	12/07/2014	12/07/2013	12/07/2012
Active Rigs	38	64	188	193	181

RBN Energy: Tallgrass's REX set to boost northeast gas takeaway capacity.

Takeaway capacity out of the Marcellus/Utica shale producing region is about to get another significant boost.

Tallgrass Energy’s Rockies Express Pipeline (REX) expects to bring the first 200 MMcf/d of its 800-MMcf/d Zone 3 Capacity Enhancement project (Z3CE) in service any day now, and ramp up to the full 800 MMcf/d by end of the year (only 20-some days from now).

Moreover, the pipeline operator has hinted that it may be able to eke out incremental Zone 3 operating capacity over and above the new design capacity in the near future. The Z3CE expansion will mark the third time in as many years that REX will increase westbound takeaway capacity out of the Marcellus/Utica region.

With each capacity boost, Northeast production volumes have risen to the occasion and the capacity has filled up. Today we examine this latest expansion and what it will mean for U.S. gas production.

Saudi Arabia's IPO: from Reuters/Bloomberg/Rigzone. This is a pretty good article. It provides another reason why Saudi Arabia was interested in getting an "OPEC" deal to cut/freeze production. Was it all about a successful IPO?

• “Even $60 oil isn’t enough to solve all the country’s fiscal issues,’’ Apostolos Bantis, a credit analyst at Commerzbank AG in Dubai, said in an interview. “It’s more a question of building confidence in the economy. If crude stabilizes at higher prices, that will give more certainty and provide a stronger basis for the Aramco IPO.’’
• “For the Saudis, success would look like oil prices where they are now or a bit higher,” said Robin Mills, chief executive of Dubai-based consultant Qamar Energy. “The best outcome would be fighting shale to a draw and maintaining market share.”
• OPEC’s output deal won’t undo the fiscal damage wrought by three years of falling oil prices. For the Saudis, the agreement isn’t so much about getting the country back in the black as it is about underpinning an ambition to wean the economy off oil, Bantis said.
• Bantis and Qamar’s Mills both see oil staying above $50 a barrel next year, with Mills forecasting Brent at between $55 to $60 for the six months that the deal is in place. OPEC can extend the deal for another six months. Brent was 0.4 percent lower at $54.72 a barrel Tuesday, December 6, 2016.
• The country’s fiscal break-even price will drop to $79.70 a barrel this year from $92.90 in 2015, the International Monetary Fund said in October.

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The Political Page

Now that President Obama is on his way out, it is amazing to listen to MSNBC "Morning Joe." Today, there is pretty much general agreement that President Obama's Iran deal was a complete disaster. Add that to the long list, starting with Solyndra and ObamaCare.

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The Market

Dow futures up 17 points, another surprise. Nasdaq futures up 1.50. WTI is up about 10 cents, slightly above $51.

AMD soars among rumored deal. It will be interesting to see what XLNX does today; it was up a bit yesterday and hitting new 52-week highs.

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The Technology Page

I don't have Apple TV but I assume it is awesome. I don't have Apple TV because I don't know if it would make TWC TV redundant.

Having said that -- not having Apple TV -- we do have TWC TV which is quite incredible. We do have two big-screen televisions in this small two-bedroom apartment, but what we really like is the fact we can watch television on all mobiles devices in the house: laptops, tablets, and, I assume, smartphones.

Then, add a wireless Bluetooth speaker like Beats Pill or UE Boom. Apple owns Beats but talking to Apple employees a year or so ago, they felt the UE Boom was the better choice. And slightly less cost. If I had all the money in the world I would "hang" a 13" (12.9-inch) iPad Pro in each room in the house, starting with the kitchen.

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Brilliant

The cover of Time magazine in which Trump is pictured as "Man of the Year," the only subtext: President of the Divided States of America. It was noted by Mr Trump on "The Today Show" that he was not the one that divided the state of America. President Obama has been president for the past eight years; President Obama is still president; and, Trump doesn't take the oath of office until January 20, 2016. 

Speaking Of Jobs -- For The Archives -- Nuclear Power In Illinois

In an article about Illinois deciding at the last minute to "keep" two nuclear power plants, these two items caught me eye:

• The bi-partisan bill allows Exelon’s Clinton and Quad Cities nuclear power plants to remain open, saving 4,200 jobs and over 22 billion kWhs of carbon-free power each year, more than all of the state’s renewables combined.
• These two plants were in jeopardy of closing because even at a low cost of five cents or so per kWh, they were losing a combined $100 million per year because they could not compete with cheap natural gas and wind energy that is subsidized at 2.3¢/kWh. Illinois taxpayers subsidize solar energy at 21¢/kWh. This bill provides these nuclear plants with just 1¢/kWh, and only until market conditions change.

It's amazing that this was even as issue.

Nuclear energy at 5 cents/kWh cannot compete with "cheap" natural gas. Apparently, Illinois subsidies for nuclear energy will be1 cent/kWh "but only until market conditions change."

Wind energy in Illinois is subsidized at 2.3 cents/kWh.

Solar energy in Illinois is subsidized at a whopping 21 cents/kWh.

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The Apple Page

I am probably the last one to know this. Google Chrome is considered a "battery hog." If your PC battery is not lasting as long as you would expect, and you are using Google Chrome, now you know. Google "google chrome battery drain." Too many hits to list. 

Of the articles that I read that addressed that issue none explained why. Probably because it's very obvious what is going on. The analogy: compare how long your smart phone battery lasts when you ride the subway all day, compared to when it is sitting on your desk and not being used.

The End Of The Line -- November 16, 2016

Link here.

The Senate Finance Committee and the House Ways and Means Committee have launched a probe into tax incentives paid to solar companies, according to The Wall Street Journal. 

The committee probes, led by their respective Republican chairmen, Rep. Kevin Brady of Texas and Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah, have found an appropriate and disturbing target to begin this work. SolarCity, a solar installation company set to be purchased by Tesla Motors Inc., is one of the seven companies named in the initial investigation.

Already grossly subsidized, Musk’s SolarCity has become an albatross of waste, fraud, and abuse of tax payer dollars. As legitimate earnings and cash become even scarcer for SolarCity, its entanglement in the Tesla empire suggests that a drastic reckoning not only is imminent, but in fact emboldening Musk to become more outlandish and reckless.

So many songs to choose from. The finalists were "with a little help from my friends" and "the end of the line." But something new. This is the extended version, available only in the UK, apparently:

The End Of The Line, The Traveling Wilburys
Tesla shares have seen a huge drop in the past month:

• October 27, 2016: $204
• November 8, 2016: $195 -- Tuesday, election day
• November 9, 2016: $190 -- Wednesday, Trump declared the winner
• November 16, 2016: $183