PJM Provides Update On Efficiency Of Intermittent Energy -- May 24, 2017

From an earlier post:

Solar Energy: Nameplate Capacity Vs Achieved Renewable Energy Output 

The European solar energy experience:

• Germany: 78 GW / 10.4 GW (13.2%)
• Spain: 27.7 GW / 6.8 GW (24.4%)
• Italy: 27.1 GW / 4.4 GW (16.2%)
• UK: 16.7 GW / 4.0 GW (24.4%)
• France: 14.9 GW / 2.6 GW (17.3%
• Sweden: 5.5 GW / 1.2 GW (22%)
• Denmark: 5.4 GW / 1.4 GW (25.6%) 
• Rest of Europe: 39.5 GW / 7.9 GW (19.8%)

This is not news. It has been reported many times on the blog -- data sent to me be a regular reader -- that "achieved renewable energy output" vs nameplate capacity works out to about 25% at best.

Overall, the effective capacity factor in Europe for solar energy was 18%.

Does anyone know the similar number for natural gas? Answer: 87% 

**********************************

PJM

Note: an update to this PJM post is at this link, posted at 7:51 p.m. Central Time. 

The reader who sent me the link to the article linked below suggested:

a) the whole issue is a mess
b) the article is way more than any reasonable person with a life would want to know
c) the whole issue is a mess (oh, did I already say that?)

Whatever. Time to look up the definition of obfuscation.

From rtoinsider, some data points on the recent PJM auction to contract for electricity:

• wind: 13% capacity factor (CF)
• solar: 38% capacity factor (significantly exceeds results in Europe which suggests some fancy math)
• this was the first PJM auction that required year-round availability (N.B. wind and solar)
• prices have come down significantly, as much as 25% in most of the regional transmission organization (RTO) or PJM in this case
• last year: $100
• this year: $76.53
• ComEd (Illinois): $188.12 ($202.77 previously)
• Duke OH/KY: $130 this year
• MAAC: $86.04 ($100 last year) -- most of Pennsylvania
• EMAAC: $187.87 (less than $120 last year) -- EMAAC is New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland
• this is the first year in which all generation must be Capacity Performance (CP): must be available throughout the delivery year; faces stiff penalties for nonperformance (in other words, smart operators will have excess NG peakers to back-up wind (in summer) and solar (in winter)
• season demand response (DR) no longer allowed; PJM committed to 558 MW of demand reductions under price-responsive demand (PRD)
• electricity demand decreasing: PJM forecasts a 2.1% reduction in peak load
• "we have units that are at financial risk in the area that, if they retire, it could create a reliability issue" -- confidentiality restricted much more comment, but it sounds like they are talking about coal-fired plants
• PJM: for year 2020/21 has a 23.3% reserve margin; highest ever in the 14-year history of the auctioin (technically the BRA, Base Residual Auction); by regulation, requires a 16.6% reserve
• cost load: $7 billion in 2020/21 -- about the same as 2019/20
• new generation: 3,144 MW (UCAP); of that, about 2,824 MW was mostly natural gas combined cycle and combustion turbines (NG-CCCT) (think GE?)
• wind: 888 MW (6,828.5 MW nameplate capacity; 13% CF)
• solar: 125 MW (330 MW nameplate capacitiy: 38% CF)
• amount of intermittent resources offered as CP dropped by 3,400 MW from last year
• Exelon: third year in a row that TMI left the capacity auction empty handed; Three-Mile Island (TMI) now depends on Pennsylvania; TMI has not been profitable for five years

Disclaimer: I do this quickly; there will be typographical and factual errors. If this is important to you, go to the source. I understand about 2% of the entire article.

Wind: with a CF of 13%, I suppose that means that when you see 100 wind turbines, if everything was working as advertised by the wind farm developer, one would need only 13 turbines.