My Favorite Chart -- MMF -- Updated January 15, 2026 -- December, 2025, Data -- Posted February 1, 2026

Locator: 49879MMF.

Tag: MMF money market funds. 

FRED: link here. 

Most recent data, link here:

My favorite chart: link here. Last month I said the most recent data was the largest jump in about two years. I honestly can't make out the jump in the most recent data, but it again shows a huge jump, similar to the jump the previous month. If it's accurate to make that statement, then again we have a most interesting situation in light of the "record" market in US equities (Dow, S&P 500, and NASDAQ).   

Updated January 15, 2026, data for December, 2025:

Zooming in: 

Influenza -- Week 3, 2026 -- It's Subtle But The Second Wave Is About To Appear -- February 1, 2026

Locator: 49878FLU.

Link here. 

Anticipating Summer! February 1, 2026

Locator: 49877TEXAS.

Beautiful, beautiful evening here in north Texas, DFW area. I may have to turn on the air conditioner.

Yes, it's apartment living but we love it. A photo from the third floor of our smaller swimming pool. Only four more months.  

Investing: Looking To Next Week, Part 3 Of 3 -- February 1, 2026

Locator: 49876AI.

AI Prompt:

Earlier you suggested: The slowdown in Microsoft's cloud growth is a "bottleneck" problem, not a "customer demand" problem. They are limited by the physical infrastructure (data centers, power, chips) needed to support AI, rather than a lack of customers. Competition with AWS is intense, but both are currently constrained by supply. power, chips) needed to support AI, rather than a lack of customers. Competition with AWS is intense, but both are currently constrained by supply. If the AI data center constraint due more to competition for cash, not enough GPUs, or simply a lack of infrasture: geographic sites; permits; access to electricity?

Google Gemini response:

The AI data center constraint is primarily due to a lack of infrastructure, specifically access to electricity and data center readiness. While GPUs were the initial hurdle, major tech leaders now indicate that power and the speed of building "warm shells" (ready-to-plug buildings) are the binding constraints. 

Key Infrastructure Constraints

• Electricity: Access to power is the single biggest bottleneck. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has stated the company has chips "sitting in inventory" that cannot be plugged in because data centers lack sufficient electricity and cooling.
• grid connection timelines: in major markets like Northern Virginia, wait times for grid connections now stretch from 5 to 7 years.
• geographic sites & permits: utilities in prime locations are turning away new projects because they have reached their maximum available power capacity.
• cooling & logistics: beyond just power, 83% of experts believe supply chains are not yet equipped to deliver the advanced liquid-cooling systems required for dense AI clusters. 

Why other factors are less dominant

• ❌ not enough GPUs: while still expensive, supply has caught up to the point where they are often delivered faster than the buildings meant to house them.
• ❌ competition for cash: Microsoft and AWS are spending record amounts—Microsoft recently reported a quarterly Capex of $37.5 billion—indicating that capital is available; the issue is how fast that cash can be converted into physical, powered capacity.  

Investing: Looking To Next Week, Part 2 Of 3 -- February 1, 2026

Locator: 49896AI.

AI prompt:

MSFT's earnings 4Q25 suggested a slowing cloud growth. If MSFT's cloud growth is slowing is it due to competition (other clouds growing, like AWS) or is due to less demand overall? Thoughts?

Google Gemini reply:

Based on Microsoft’s Q4 2025 earnings report (ending June 30, 2025), the reported "slowing" cloud growth is not due to a drop in demand, but rather supply constraints—specifically, the inability to build data centers fast enough to meet intense AI demand. 

While Azure grew 39% in the quarter (beating expectations), the slight deceleration in growth rate, combined with massive capital expenditures (CapEx) for AI, led to investor concerns. 

Here is a breakdown of why growth is "slowing" and the role of competition:

1. The Main Reason: Capacity Constraints (Not Demand)

• infrastructure crunch: Demand for AI and cloud services is outpacing Microsoft’s capacity to supply GPUs and data center infrastructure. CFO Amy Hood noted they are balancing "incoming supply" with "growing Azure demand".
• capacity-driven limitations: If Microsoft had more data center capacity, they could have grown faster.
• massive backlog: Microsoft’s commercial remaining performance obligations (backlog) surged, indicating high demand that is locked in but not yet recognized as revenue. 

2. Is it Competition (e.g., AWS)?

• market share shift: While Azure is growing rapidly, there are indications that AWS, which has a larger overall market share (approx. 30% vs. Azure's 20% in Q2 2025), is catching up on AI and potentially regaining some momentum.
• competitive pressures: The "Big Three" (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud) are all aggressively investing in AI, with all three reporting capacity constraints, meaning the market is highly competitive and supply-constrained, not demand-deficient.
• performance comparison: While Azure growth dipped slightly from 40% to 39%, some analysts believe Amazon’s AI offerings (like Bedrock) and custom chips might make it a formidable competitor in the coming quarters. 

3. Key Findings on 4Q25 Results

• revenue growth: Microsoft’s Azure cloud sales rose 39%. While this is a slight, minor drop from the previous 40% rate, the overall growth is still high.
• surging CAPEX: To fix the capacity bottleneck, Microsoft is increasing capital spending (over $30B+ in the following quarter), which caused a decrease in margins.
• OpenAI impact: A significant portion of Azure growth is driven by AI, with some reports suggesting a large portion of the revenue backlog is tied to OpenAI’s usage of Azure. 

Conclusion: The slowdown in Microsoft's cloud growth is a "bottleneck" problem, not a "customer demand" problem. They are limited by the physical infrastructure (data centers, power, chips) needed to support AI, rather than a lack of customers. Competition with AWS is intense, but both are currently constrained by supply. power, chips) needed to support AI, rather than a lack of customers. Competition with AWS is intense, but both are currently constrained by supply.

Investing: Looking To Next Week, Part 1 Of 3 -- February 1, 2026

Locator: 49895QCOM.

Link here. 

From the linked article:

“It comes down to monetization. That’s what the Street wants to see here,” Wedbush Securities managing director and global head of technology research Dan Ives told Yahoo Finance on Friday.

"I think what you're seeing is really a bifurcation in tech. It's kind of the haves and the have nots, and that's really what's playing out across tech earnings," he added.

I see it very differently, but "monetization" is one way of looking at it. In's interesting -- the story angle doesn't fit the photograph accompanying the article which focused on Apple.

This is for the extended family. This is not an investing site. See disclaimer for the blog.

Let this sink in: Google Gemini's reply was based on visiting over a billion websites in less than a second and replying in less than a second. If your broker can do that for you, you have an incredible broker. 

AI prompt:

Of the Fortune 500 tech companies which are the most important for Apple: Broadcom, QCOM, Snowflake, Intel, TSM, others? 

Google Gemini: 

Of the Fortune 500 tech companies, TSMC (TSM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Qualcomm (QCOM) are arguably the most critical for Apple's hardware and infrastructure, as they provide the essential chips for the iPhone and Mac ecosystem. 

Based on supply chain analysis, here is the hierarchy of importance for Apple:

1. The Critical Trio (Highest Importance)

• TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co): This is by far Apple's most important manufacturing partner, producing the Apple-designed A-series (iPhone) and M-series (Mac) silicon using advanced 3nm and 2nm nodes. Apple is TSM's largest customer, often absorbing nearly half of its advanced output.
• Broadcom: A key, long-term partner providing crucial wireless components. Reports indicate a multi-year, multi-billion dollar agreement for 5G radio frequency components and wireless connectivity chips.
• Qualcomm (QCOM): While Apple aims to create its own modems, Qualcomm remains essential for providing the 5G baseband processors (modems) and other RF components for iPhone, with a partnership that has been extended to 2026 and beyond.

2. Crucial Assembly Partners

• Foxconn (Hon Hai Precision Industry): While not always in the top 50 in traditional "tech" rankings, this is Apple's largest manufacturing partner, handling the assembly of the vast majority of iPhones.
• Luxshare & Pegatron: Key partners for assembling iPhones, AirPods, and wearables, crucial for diversifying production outside of China. 

3. Emerging Strategic Partners

• Intel: Although Apple transitioned away from Intel for Mac processors, a 2025 report indicates a renewed, strategic partnership where Apple may use Intel to manufacture chips for certain devices, signaling a desire to diversify its semiconductor manufacturing and leverage U.S.-based capacity.
• Corning: Provides the specialized "Gorilla Glass" used on iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch screens, making them critical for device durability. 

4. Other Key Partners

• Jabil & Micron: Important suppliers for specialized, U.S.-sourced, or assembled components and memory technology.
• Snowflake: While an essential data cloud platform for Apple’s enterprise software and analytics, Snowflake is not a hardware supplier critical to iPhone production in the same way as chipmakers. 

Verdict: For hardware, TSMC is in a league of its own for importance, followed by Broadcom and Qualcomm for connectivity. Intel is emerging as a critical, strategic partner for future, diversified fabrication.

*****************************
Not Ready For Prime Time

Market analysts follow cash, guidance, MOJO, not chips. 

How I see it. Not ready for prime time. May be modified over time.

**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly

Briefly: 

I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.

I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.

If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.

Longer version here.   

***************************
Movie Night 

The Postman Always Rings Twice. 

Movies I've seen many times, I always enjoy the credits at the beginning and the opening scenes. I often forget how characters were introduced into the movie.

 

Apple -- India -- February 1, 2026

Locator: 49894AAPL. 

JPM

Citing a "supercycle, " JPM raises AAPL's target fprice from $305 to $315. That's equates to about 20% appreciation.  

*******************************
India

India hands Apple another gift:

In a significant 2026 budget move, the Indian government has relaxed tax rules for foreign companies, directly benefiting Apple by allowing it to fund, supply, and own manufacturing machinery for its local contractors (like Foxconn and Tata) without incurring "business connection" income tax risks. This enables faster, cost-efficient manufacturing expansion and supply chain diversification. 

Key Details of the Decision:

• tax rule relaxation: India announced in the 2026-27 budget that, to promote local manufacturing, mere ownership of machinery by a foreign firm in a contract manufacturer's facility will not lead to tax liabilities.
• impact on Apple: previously, if Apple funded expensive machinery for its Indian contractors, it risked being taxed on that arrangement under Indian law. The relaxation eliminates this "deal-breaking" risk.
• expansion strategy: this change allows Apple to increase its manufacturing footprint within India with greater ease, complementing its goal to diversify manufacturing away from China.
• context: the decision follows intense lobbying by Apple to remove legal hurdles to expansion. The move is considered a major win for Apple, supporting its strategy to treat India as a critical, global manufacturing hub.  

For AppEconomy, The Top Story Today -- The Apple Supercycle -- February 1, 2026

Locator: 49893AAPL. 

For the past year we've  been talking about Apple's supercycle.

Finally: those who know, know -- we're at the beginning of Apple's supercycle.

Apple's 1Q26 was a stunning, blow-out quarter.

It was all about China:

AI prompt:

When in the past ninety days -- since December 1, 2025 -- did the China government okay Apple products?

Google Gemini:

AppEconomy: link here.

Today, at a glance: 

Apple (AAPL) AppEconomy:

• China
• new milestone, a new record: over 2.5 billion active devices; lots of eyeballs;
• gross profit margin: 48%, up 1pp y/y; not trivial;
• services revenue: almost 4x Mac; and, 4x iPad; trending toward 0.5xiPhone;
• Microsoft stumbles; 

AI prompt: some say Apple has entered its long rumored Apple supercycle. Do you agree?

Google Gemini: long answer. Here's Gemini's conclusion: 

Going forward:

• Tim Cook downplays chip shortage; 
• Tim Cook says Apple won't raise prices on chip shortage;
• China tailwinds;
• AI partnership with Google;
• probably the most accessible chatbot out there;
• foldable phone likely;
• over 2.5 billion active devices. 

*******************************
India

India hands Apple another gift:

In a significant 2026 budget move, the Indian government has relaxed tax rules for foreign companies, directly benefiting Apple by allowing it to fund, supply, and own manufacturing machinery for its local contractors (like Foxconn and Tata) without incurring "business connection" income tax risks. This enables faster, cost-efficient manufacturing expansion and supply chain diversification. 

Key Details of the Decision:

• tax rule relaxation: India announced in the 2026-27 budget that, to promote local manufacturing, mere ownership of machinery by a foreign firm in a contract manufacturer's facility will not lead to tax liabilities.
• impact on Apple: previously, if Apple funded expensive machinery for its Indian contractors, it risked being taxed on that arrangement under Indian law. The relaxation eliminates this "deal-breaking" risk.
• expansion strategy: this change allows Apple to increase its manufacturing footprint within India with greater ease, complementing its goal to diversify manufacturing away from China.
• context: the decision follows intense lobbying by Apple to remove legal hurdles to expansion. The move is considered a major win for Apple, supporting its strategy to treat India as a critical, global manufacturing hub.  

**********************
JPM On Apple

Link here. 

The article is archived here. This article was published six days before earnings announced a stunning, blow-out, record-setting quarter.

Most important paragraphs:

The surge in Apple's valuation follows a year of meticulous strategic pivots aimed at reclaiming its dominance in the global smartphone market. 

Leading the charge, JPMorgan analyst Samik Chatterjee adjusted the firm’s price target from $305 to $315, applying a 30x multiple to 2027 earnings estimates. The upgrade reflects a belief that Apple is entering a "key product cycle" that will likely extend into the next several years. 

According to internal projections and supply chain data, Apple’s revenue for the quarter is expected to land between $138.4 billion and $139.8 billion—a staggering 10% to 12% increase year-over-year.

 Actual results:

Continuing with the linked article:

The timeline leading to this momentum began in late 2025 with the release of the iPhone 17 series. 

Unlike previous iterations, the iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max featured a mandatory 12GB of RAM to support the local processing requirements of iOS 26.4. 

This technical requirement effectively forced a "generational demand pull," as users on older devices found themselves unable to access the full suite of Apple Intelligence features, such as the new "Personal Context" autonomous assistant. Consequently, iPhone revenue is projected to reach $80.2 billion for the quarter, marking its strongest growth since the 2021 post-pandemic boom. [Actual: $85 billion.]

Market reaction has been overwhelmingly positive, with the broader indices often moving in lockstep with Apple’s pre-earnings fluctuations. Other major players have echoed JPMorgan’s optimism; Evercore ISI recently set a $330 target, while Wedbush Securities maintained a "Street-high" target of $350. The consensus among these stakeholders is that Apple’s 2.2 billion-device installed base has become the most valuable AI distribution channel in existence, bridging the gap between complex large language models and everyday consumer utility. 

**********************************
Disclaimer
Briefly

Briefly: 

I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken and I am often well out front of my headlights. I am often appropriately accused of hyperbole when it comes to the Bakken.

I am inappropriately exuberant about the US economy and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

See disclaimer. This is not an investment site. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here. All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If something appears wrong, it probably is. Feel free to fact check everything.

If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them. 

Reminder: I am inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, US economy, and the US market.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Apple. 

And now, Nvidia, also. I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Nvidia. Nvidia is a metonym for AI and/or the sixth industrial revolution.

I am also inappropriately exuberant about all things Broadcom.

Longer version here.   

Oil Prices At Recent Low. CLR Quits Drilling In The Bakken. Middle Of Winter -- And Bakken Hangs In There -- February 1, 2026

Locator: 49892B.

Link here. 

Initial Production For Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- February 1, 2026

Locator: 49891B.

The wells:

• 41240, conf, Hunt, Clearwater 157-90-13-12H-2, Clear Water, 

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2025	13819	1408
10-2025	12847	3708
9-2025	16682	6613
8-2025	5189	1921

• 41239, conf, Hunt, Clearwater 157-90-13-12H-1, Clear Water, 

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2025	9646	1094
10-2025	10508	3136
9-2025	12621	4895
8-2025	6031	1866

• 41005, conf, Hunt, Palermo 156-90-2-31H-2, Ross, 

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2025	22594	4565
10-2025	25220	8431
9-2025	20115	6499
8-2025	16536	2614

• 41815, conf, BR, Rolla 6B, Elidah, npd, 
• 41354, conf, Hess, GO-Dustin Brose-156-98-2932H-3, Wheelock, 

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2025	14049	26430
10-2025	23220	39490
9-2025	13238	39948
8-2025	19768	20502

• 41335, conf, Hess, BW-Stoveland-149-1003H-4, Ellsworth, 

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2025	16648	26622
10-2025	14762	19690
9-2025	23417	31912
8-2025	26443	45850

• 41334, conf, Hess, BW-Stoveland-149-100-1003H-5, Ellsworth, 

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2025	12640	27777
10-2025	18922	24701
9-2025	30137	48073
8-2025	27994	48911

• 41235, conf, Hunt, Clearwater 157-90-14-11H-2, Clear Water, 

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2025	12874	1435
10-2025	14538	4260
9-2025	16487	5237
8-2025	14817	5899

• 42153, conf, Neptune Operating, Gullickson 36-25 4H, Rawson, 

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2025	38182	8129
10-2025	38688	20232

• 41237, conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-14-12H-1, Clear Water, 

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2025	14018	1559
10-2025	17859	5310
9-2025	18100	4839
8-2025	12327	3973

• 41236, conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-9-14-11H-3, Clear Water, 

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2025	13648	1377
10-2025	16152	5134
9-2025	17324	6260
8-2025	12152	4578

• 41234, conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-14-11H-1, Clear Water, 

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2025	17236	1906
10-2025	20076	5821
9-2025	20879	6603
8-2025	9022	3299

• 41461, conf, CLR, Garfield FIU 2-5HSL, Banks, 

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2025	39889	78231
10-2025	48741	82582
9-2025	10777	16528

• 41959, conf, Petro-Hunt, State 162-100-16B-21-2H, West Ambrose, npd, 
• 41352, conf, Hess, GO-Beck Living TR-156-98-2017H-3, Wheelock, 

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2025	14440	29278
10-2025	13943	27120
9-2025	9182	30321
8-2025	26077	40316

• 39807, conf, BR, Mazama 1C, Elidah, npd, 
• 41290, conf, Hess, GO-Morgan-LW-156-97-1806H-1, Dollar Joe, 

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2025	17675	29825
10-2025	19680	34926
9-2025	19051	38888
8-2025	27758	21952

• 42133, conf, WGO Resources, Trester 1-21, wildcat, NWNE 21-139-104,

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
11-2025	6926	0
10-2025	7854	0
9-2025	246	0

• 42032, conf, Slawson, Rebel Federal 4-32-17TFH, Big Bend, npd, 
• 41997, conf, Slawson, Rebel Federal 2-32-17H, Big Bend, npd, 
• 39806, conf, BR, Mazama 1B, Elidah, no production data, 

Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- February 1, 2016

Locator: 49890B.

Wednesday, February 11, 2026: 19 for the month, 72 for the quarter, 72 for the year,
41240, conf, Hunt, Clearwater 157-90-13-12H-2, 
41239, conf, Hunt, Clearwater 157-90-13-12H-1, 
41005, conf, Hunt, Palermo 156-90-2-31H-2, 

Tuesday, February 10, 2026: 16 for the month, 69 for the quarter, 69 for the year,
None.

Monday, February 9, 2026: 16 for the month, 69 for the quarter, 69 for the year,
41815, conf, BR, Rolla 6B,
41354, conf, Hess, GO-Dustin Brose-156-98-2932H-3,

Sunday, February 8, 2026: 14 for the month, 67 for the quarter, 67 for the year,
41335, conf, Hess, BW-Stoveland-149-1003H-4,

Saturday, February 7, 2026: 13 for the month, 66 for the quarter, 66 for the year,
None.

Friday, February 6, 2026: 13 for the month, 66 for the quarter, 66 for the year,
41334, conf, Hess, BW-Stoveland-149-100-1003H-5, 
41235, conf, Hunt, Clearwater 157-90-14-11H-2, 

Thursday, February 5, 2026: 11 for the month, 64 for the quarter, 64 for the year.
None.

Wednesday, February 4, 2026: 11 for the month, 64 for the quarter, 64 for the year,
42153, conf, Neptune Operating, Gullickson 36-25 4H, 
41237, conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-14-12H-1,
41236, conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-9-14-11H-3, 
41234, conf, Hunt Oil, Clearwater 157-90-14-11H-1,
41461, conf, CLR, Garfield FIU 2-5HSL, 

Tuesday, February 3, 2026: 6 for the month, 59 for the quarter, 59 for the year,
41959, conf, Petro-Hunt, State 162-100-16B-21-2H, 
41352, conf, Hess, GO-Beck Living TR-156-98-2017H-3, 
39807, conf, BR, Mazama 1C, 

Monday, February 2, 2026: 3 for the month, 56 for the quarter, 56 for the year,
41290, conf, Hess, GO-Morgan-LW-156-97-1806H-1, 

Sunday, February 1, 2026: 2 for the month, 55 for the quarter, 55 for the year,
42133, conf, WGO Resources, Trester 1-21,
42032, conf, Slawson, Rebel Federal 4-32-17TFH, 

Saturday, January 31, 2026: 53 for the month, 53 for the quarter, 53 for the year,
41997, conf, Slawson, Rebel Federal 2-32-17H, 
39806, conf, BR, Mazama 1B, 

Florida To Boston: All-Time Cold / Snowfall Records Set -- February 1, 2026

Locator: 49889GLOBALWARMING.

For the archives.