Sunday, April 14, 2019

More On the CLR Carus Well That Will Be Coming Off The Confidential List This Week -- April 14, 2019

Updates

April 18, 2019: 16648, 508, CLR, Carus 13-28H, Cedar Coulee, SESW 28-147-96; Bakken pool, t8/07; cum 302K 2/19; see this post where this well will be followed; the file report is still confidential (9:00 a.m. CT, April 18, 2019) 

Original Post

This well is coming off confidential list this week:
16648, conf, CLR, Carus 13-28H, Cedar Coulee on the scout ticket; has been in production since 2007; not sure why it is on the confidential list; a stripper well as of June 17, 2016; an extended reach single lateral; middle Bakken; drilling target: approximately 27 feet thick, about 9' below the base of the upper Bakken shale; 100% within the drilling zone; spud June 10, 2007; KOP: June 22, 2007; cease drilling/TVD, 11,386.65 feet, July 15, 2007; average background gas -- very, very low, almost nil in much of the lateral; open hole completion, 1 million lbs sand; IP of 508; permit for BR (#16648, Carus 24-28H, Oakdale field, Dunn County; Change of Operator from BR to CLR, February 5, 2008; at that time #16648 still Carus 24-28H. The NDIC map does not show any Carus 24-28H; it appears the scout ticket is wrong --
The scout ticket:

NDIC File No: 16648     API No: 33-025-00632-00-00     CTB No: 116648
Well Type: ON CONFIDENTIAL STATUS
Location: SESW 28-147-96     Footages: 400 FSL 1530 FWL     Latitude: 47.517750     Longitude: -102.922201
Current Operator: CONTINENTAL RESOURCES, INC.
Current Well Name: CARUS 13-28H
    Field: CEDAR COULEE
Monthly Sales Data: 

The scout ticket says a Cedar Coulee well, but that can't possibly be correct (?). It looks like the Carus wells are in the Oakdale field.

A reader writes:
The Carus well had a drilling rig pit back on it this past winter. Not sure if they drilled a new lateral or not, but they did frac it again afterwards. 

Something To Think About -- All Of A Sudden, Things Are Getting Exciting -- April 14, 2019

Updates

April 20, 2019: could this be the next high-profile Permian takeover? From the linked article:
Oil equities are under-valued at present by thirty or forty percent, taking the recent performance of the XOP index as an example, in relation to the price of oil. From the Dec. 24th, 2018 low, the XOP has regained about 30% of its pre-crash level, while oil has nearly doubled. Anadarko makes up about 2% of the XOP.
Original Post

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site. Do not make any investment, financial, job, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or what you think you may have read here. 

Links that we may want to re-visit in light of Chevron looking to buy Anadarko:
Many other links.

But this may be the most important link.
CNBC

See graphic below. Earlier, Apache was at the top of the list, but it's still among the top five.

There are thousands of equities trading on NYSE. To be among the five in "the those moving" one has to at least think about "why"?


************************ 
Something To Think About 

Something To Think About, Willie Nelson

Did Anyone Catch This? April 14, 2019

Long-term followers of the Bakken book know that Occidental once had a fairly large footprint in the Bakken. See "Bakken operators." At that link:

OXY
I noted early on that despite being in some of the best, Tier 1, acreage, Oxy never seemed to be able to get it together in the Bakken. And OXY left.

I tracked OXY wells at this post -- I think I "captured" almost every one of OXY's wells in the Bakken. Very few, if any, were impressive.

Hold that thought.

Re-posting from the other day, regarding Chevron's move to buy Anadarko:

*****************************
Spoiler? OXY?

From same linked article:
Occidental Petroleum Corp. made a $70-per-share offer for Anadarko, according to a person familiar with the matter. But the deal would have been tougher for Occidental to pull off than for Chevron given its smaller size and narrower range of upstream expertise, potentially dragging down its share price.
 In case you missed it, this time in red, bold:
But the deal would have been tougher for Occidental to pull off than for Chevron given its smaller size and narrower range of upstream expertise.
It is interesting to track OXY through the "Bakken filter": https://themilliondollarway.blogspot.com/search?q=occidental.

Argus Posts New Price Index: US Oil Destined For Europe, Making America Great -- April 14, 2019

This will be re-posted later. This is a huge story. A H.U.G.E. story.


Argus is publishing a new price index for crude oil in Europe called New North Sea Dated.

Link here.
The new price index is based on a robust methodology that combines the liquidity of the existing market for North Sea crudes with a range of delivered Rotterdam assessments of other crudes regularly consumed in Europe.
The North Sea market provides the price benchmark for much of the crude traded around the world, including exports from Russia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East (to Europe) and deliveries into Asia.
The disruption to the Forties pipeline in late 2017 and the increasing removal of benchmark-grade Forties from the North Sea market for shipment to Asia has left the market appearing short, illiquid and volatile. However, there is a large and growing volume of similar light, sweet crude available to European refiners, especially from the US.
The market requires a regional European benchmark that reflects the new reality. Argus is the first to introduce a fully formed new methodology that builds on the strengths of the existing market, while incorporating new market reality. Today, delivered grades are just as likely to provide the clearing price signal.
As North Sea production declines and European refiners look for alternative sources of crude, the volume of US WTI crude refined in Europe (around 900,000 b/d) is expected to surpass the combined production of all North Sea BFOET grades (currently 910,000 b/d). US WTI crude is the most competitively priced light, sweet grade in the European market and should be part of the benchmark-setting process.
We also include other similar-quality grades that are regularly delivered to Europe — Saharan Blend, BTC Blend, Bonny Light, Escravos and Qua Iboe — to increase liquidity and allow for more participation in the benchmark-setting process.
I would be interested in readers who follow this much more closely than I do to comment on what this means, from a geopolitical perspective.

Making America great. 

*************************
Trumpsters

Whether you love him, hate him, or somewhere in between, Trump "calls it" over and over and over:
  • for two years Trump said there was no Trump campaign-Russian collusion in the 2016 election; Mueller concurred (after two years and $40 million)
  • months ago called on Saudi Arabia to increase heavy oil production; otherwise US gasoline was going to spike (and it has begun to spike; this will become a big story this summer, particularly in California)
  • months ago Trump called out the Fed for raising rates too fast, too soon, too often: everyone now agrees that Jerome Powell completely blew it -- well, almost everyone; most vocal (and most correct on this: James Cramer)
  • months ago Trump called the events at the southern border a crisis; now everyone agrees it's a crisis (for different reasons, of course)
  • years ago Trump called out China on unfair trade practices; he was correct, but Americans continued to profit short term and no one wanted to kill the golden goose 
  • he was right on NATO countries not paying their fair share; that is changing, slowly but surely
The movie I'm watching suggests Trump is the first president in a long time to clearly state what he thinks will happen six months out, compared to most recent presidents simply reacting to events
  • I still think he was snookered by North Korea. He still thinks a deal can be made; North Korea is now begging for a third summit, but everything regarding North Korea now seems to be a charade on Kim's part; Trump, for some odd reason, will play along (I think it can be easily explained)
  • his administration pretty much ignored the Kashoggi murder (it had little choice); very, very disappointing from a moral point of view, but Kissinger would call it realpolitik; this weekend, WSJ has huge full page spread of Saudi's prince who everyone knows was deeply involved; Prince Salman is fully redeemed (at least if one "believes" the WSJ)
Many Americans are watching a different movie than I am but that's what makes this interesting.

*****************************
Do The Math

Updates

April 16, 2019: now it's Yuma, Arizona, crying "Uncle!" Population, Yuma: 100,000.  

Original Post
 
Look at this.

Wasn't there a headline the other day that US border patrol, homeland security, et al, picked up 100,000 illegal migrants in one month? That's hard to believe. I could be wrong, but probably not.

Whatever.

Now this headline: the second largest city in New Mexico, Las Cruces, is begging for help to handle all the migrants that are being dropped off in their city.

Remember, this is the second largest city in New Mexico.

This "huge" city is beginning to show signs of strain, that it cannot handle the influx.

The city says US border patrol is dropping off huge numbers of migrants in their city and they can't handle the surge.

So, how many migrants are we talking about?

Drum roll.
The statement said 83 migrants arrived Saturday, following about 95 who were dropped off by the Border Patrol on Friday at the Gospel Rescue Mission homeless shelter and the Community of Hope campus.
Wow.

First question to be asked? Is Las Cruces, NM, a sanctuary city?

Yup.

Link here.

And, yes, I was correct: 103,000 migrants picked up at the southern border in March, 2019. Reuters which means it must be true. The "real" surge is yet to come.

October, 2019, these will be the big stories:
  • migrant issue along the southern border
  • Trump's tax returns
  • sky-rocketing gasoline prices
  • DOJ investigations
  • Democratic front-runner

Initial Production Data For Selected Wells Coming Off Confidential List This Next Week -- April 14, 2019

Full list of wells coming off the confidential list this next week are posted here

34949, conf, Kraken, Jefferson 31-30 2H, Corinth,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-201920255771
1-2019269751068
12-2018256542354
11-2018250830
10-20189550

34948, conf, Kraken Operating, Jefferson 31-30 1TFH,  Corinth,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-201920378753
1-201923178914
12-2018227541989
11-2018161000
10-20182210

34785, conf, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-3H, Eightmile,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-2019218810
1-2019136020
12-2018252290
11-2018319930
10-201861250

34461, conf, CLR, Peterson 3-29H1, East Fork,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20191641216332
1-20192698528908
10-20186260

27666, conf, Whiting, Periot 44-20HU, Dollar Joe,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20191680350683
1-20192342845047
12-20183039957003
11-20183290323501
10-201854290

34460, conf, CLR, Peterson 2-29HSL, East Fork,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-20191876320336
1-20193549638267
10-20187550

34930, conf, Liberty Resources, Double-R N 158-94-34-33-1MBH, White Earth,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-201994398827
1-20191770017379
12-20181917120332
11-20182003423763
10-201889169065

16648, conf, CLR, Carus 13-28H, Cedar Coulee on the scout ticket; has been in production since 2007; not sure why it is on the confidential list; a stripper well as of June 17, 2016; an extended reach single lateral; middle Bakken; drilling target: approximately 27 feet thick, about 9' below the base of the upper Bakken shale; 100% within the drilling zone; spud June 10, 2007; KOP: June 22, 2007; cease drilling/TVD, 11,386.65 feet, July 15, 2007; average background gas -- very, very low, almost nil in much of the lateral; open hole completion, 1 million lbs sand; IP of 508; permit for BR (#16648, Carus 24-28H, Oakdale field, Dunn County; Change of Operator from BR to CLR, February 5, 2008; at that time #16648 still Carus 24-28H. The NDIC map does not show any Carus 24-28H; it appears the scout ticket is wrong -- later: see first comment below or this post.

27736, conf, Oasis, McCauley 5601 41-34 6B, Tyrone,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-2019104987340
1-20191694012514
12-2018161857645
11-2018116436113
10-201865124194

34320, conf, Windridge Operating, Sandpiper State 35-26 B1H, Short Creek,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-201931238445
1-201929264710
12-20182198599
11-201860580
10-20186570

35036, conf, Liberty Resources, Double-R N 158-94-34-33-1TFH, White Earth,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-2019116208803
1-20191546012746
12-20181804417202
11-20181854820765
10-20181090710425
 
34501, conf, EOG, Austin 74-1929H, Parshall,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-201910344229
1-20191125813
12-201856700
11-2018146833201
10-201892262402

30744, conf, Oasis, McCauley 5501 14-4 8BX, Tyrone,

DateOil RunsMCF Sold
2-2019118088174
1-20191774414337
12-20181857812495
11-20181897014014
10-2018135649431

Wells Coming Off The Confidential LIst This Next Week -- April 14, 2019

Monday, April 22, 2019: 73 wells for the month; 73 wells for the quarter
34949, conf, Kraken, Jefferson 31-30 2H, 
34948, conf, Kraken Operating, Jefferson 31-30 1TFH
33875, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC David 2-29-32-157N-99W MBH, 

Sunday, April 21, 2019: 70 wells for the month; 70 wells for the quarter
33876, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Bennie 5-20-17-157N-99W TFH
34785, conf, Nine Point Energy, Missouri 152-103-4-2-3H, 
34461, conf, CLR, Peterson 3-29H1

Saturday, April 20, 2019: 67 wells for the month; 67 wells for the quarter
34295, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 154-95-36D_35-3H, 
33877, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC David 6-29-32-157N-99W TFH
27666, conf, Whiting, Periot 44-20HU, 

Friday, April 19, 2019: 64 wells for the month; 64 wells for the quarter
34460, conf, CLR, Peterson 2-29HSL, 
33878, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Bennie-2-20-17-157N-99W MBH, 

Thursday, April 18, 2019: 62 wells for the month; 62 wells for the quarter
34930, conf, Liberty Resources, Double-R N 158-94-34-33-1MBH,
32927, conf, Sinclair, Sinclair State 5-36H, 
16648, conf, CLR, Carus 13-28H,

Wednesday, April 17, 2019: 59 wells for the month; 59 wells for the quarter
34313, conf, XTO, Arlene Federa 44X-23B, 
33880, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Bennie 6-20-17-157N-99W TFH
30910, conf, BR, Curtis 24-9 MBH, 
27736, conf, Oasis, McCauley 5601 41-34 6B ,

Tuesday, April 16, 2019: 55 wells for the month; 55 wells for the quarter
34320, conf, Windridge Operating, Sandpiper State 35-26 B1H, 
34314, conf, XTO, Arlene Federal 44X-23F, 
33881, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC David 7-29-32-157N-99W TFH,
32928, conf, Sinclair Oil & Gas, Sinclair State 6-36TFH,


Monday, April 15, 2019 -- memo to self -- IRS filing deadline: 55 wells for the month; 55 wells for the quarter
34315, conf, XTO, Arlene Federal 44X-23F,
30911, conf, BR, Saddle Butte 24-9 TFH,
30860, conf, BR, Rollacleetwood 11-27MBH ULW,

Sunday, April 14, 2019: 53 wells for the month; 53 wells for the quarter
35036, conf, Liberty Resources, Double-R N 158-94-34-33-1TFH, White Earth, a nice well; 
34985, conf, XTO, Roxy 21X-6EXH, West Capa, , no production data,
34501, conf, EOG, Austin 74-1929H, Parshall, producing,
34316, conf, XTO, Arlene Federal 44X-23G, North Fork, no production data,
33688, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Nelson 2-19-18-157N-99W MBH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
32929, conf, Sinclair Oil, Sinclair State 7-36H, Robinson Lake, no production data,

Saturday, April 13, 2019: 47 wells for the month; 47 wells for the quarter
34986, conf, XTO, Roxy 21X-6AXD, West Capa, no production data,
34317, conf, XTO, Arlene Federal 44X-23D, North Fork, no production data,
33937, conf, Petro Harvester Operating, PTL2 4-16 163-92D, Portal, no production data,
33687, conf, Crescent Point Energy, CPEUSC Nelson 2-30-31-157N-99W MBH, Lone Tree Lake, no production data,
31500, conf, Petro-Hunt, USA 153-95-1B-7-7H, Charlson, no production data,
30744, conf, Oasis, McCauley 5501 14-4 8BX, Tyrone, a nice well;