Argus Posts New Price Index: US Oil Destined For Europe, Making America Great -- April 14, 2019

This will be re-posted later. This is a huge story. A H.U.G.E. story.

Argus is publishing a new price index for crude oil in Europe called New North Sea Dated.

Link here.

The new price index is based on a robust methodology that combines the liquidity of the existing market for North Sea crudes with a range of delivered Rotterdam assessments of other crudes regularly consumed in Europe.

The North Sea market provides the price benchmark for much of the crude traded around the world, including exports from Russia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East (to Europe) and deliveries into Asia.

The disruption to the Forties pipeline in late 2017 and the increasing removal of benchmark-grade Forties from the North Sea market for shipment to Asia has left the market appearing short, illiquid and volatile. However, there is a large and growing volume of similar light, sweet crude available to European refiners, especially from the US.

The market requires a regional European benchmark that reflects the new reality. Argus is the first to introduce a fully formed new methodology that builds on the strengths of the existing market, while incorporating new market reality. Today, delivered grades are just as likely to provide the clearing price signal.

As North Sea production declines and European refiners look for alternative sources of crude, the volume of US WTI crude refined in Europe (around 900,000 b/d) is expected to surpass the combined production of all North Sea BFOET grades (currently 910,000 b/d). US WTI crude is the most competitively priced light, sweet grade in the European market and should be part of the benchmark-setting process.

We also include other similar-quality grades that are regularly delivered to Europe — Saharan Blend, BTC Blend, Bonny Light, Escravos and Qua Iboe — to increase liquidity and allow for more participation in the benchmark-setting process.

I would be interested in readers who follow this much more closely than I do to comment on what this means, from a geopolitical perspective.

Making America great. 

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Trumpsters

Whether you love him, hate him, or somewhere in between, Trump "calls it" over and over and over:

• for two years Trump said there was no Trump campaign-Russian collusion in the 2016 election; Mueller concurred (after two years and $40 million)
• months ago called on Saudi Arabia to increase heavy oil production; otherwise US gasoline was going to spike (and it has begun to spike; this will become a big story this summer, particularly in California)
• months ago Trump called out the Fed for raising rates too fast, too soon, too often: everyone now agrees that Jerome Powell completely blew it -- well, almost everyone; most vocal (and most correct on this: James Cramer)
• months ago Trump called the events at the southern border a crisis; now everyone agrees it's a crisis (for different reasons, of course)
• years ago Trump called out China on unfair trade practices; he was correct, but Americans continued to profit short term and no one wanted to kill the golden goose 
• he was right on NATO countries not paying their fair share; that is changing, slowly but surely

The movie I'm watching suggests Trump is the first president in a long time to clearly state what he thinks will happen six months out, compared to most recent presidents simply reacting to events

• I still think he was snookered by North Korea. He still thinks a deal can be made; North Korea is now begging for a third summit, but everything regarding North Korea now seems to be a charade on Kim's part; Trump, for some odd reason, will play along (I think it can be easily explained)
• his administration pretty much ignored the Kashoggi murder (it had little choice); very, very disappointing from a moral point of view, but Kissinger would call it realpolitik; this weekend, WSJ has huge full page spread of Saudi's prince who everyone knows was deeply involved; Prince Salman is fully redeemed (at least if one "believes" the WSJ)

Many Americans are watching a different movie than I am but that's what makes this interesting.

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Do The Math

Updates

April 16, 2019: now it's Yuma, Arizona, crying "Uncle!" Population, Yuma: 100,000.  

Original Post

 

Look at this.

Wasn't there a headline the other day that US border patrol, homeland security, et al, picked up 100,000 illegal migrants in one month? That's hard to believe. I could be wrong, but probably not.

Whatever.

Now this headline: the second largest city in New Mexico, Las Cruces, is begging for help to handle all the migrants that are being dropped off in their city.

Remember, this is the second largest city in New Mexico.

This "huge" city is beginning to show signs of strain, that it cannot handle the influx.

The city says US border patrol is dropping off huge numbers of migrants in their city and they can't handle the surge.

So, how many migrants are we talking about?

Drum roll.

The statement said 83 migrants arrived Saturday, following about 95 who were dropped off by the Border Patrol on Friday at the Gospel Rescue Mission homeless shelter and the Community of Hope campus.

Wow.

First question to be asked? Is Las Cruces, NM, a sanctuary city?

Yup.

Link here.

And, yes, I was correct: 103,000 migrants picked up at the southern border in March, 2019. Reuters which means it must be true. The "real" surge is yet to come.

October, 2019, these will be the big stories:

• migrant issue along the southern border
• Trump's tax returns
• sky-rocketing gasoline prices
• DOJ investigations
• Democratic front-runner