Locator: 48676B.
WTI: $67.69.
Active rigs: 42.
Four new permits, #41290 - #41293, inclusive:
Three permits canceled:
Locator: 48675CHINA.
China:
Surging Chinese power demand is raising questions about whether the booming renewables sector can keep pace and what that means for targets to cap greenhouse gas emissions.
The country’s coal plants are the largest contributors to global warming, and robust electricity use is prolonging their lifespan even as the nation adds record amounts of wind and solar. Thermal generation is up 1.9% through September from a year earlier — although that would be much higher without clean energy picking up the slack.
During the same period, electricity consumption increased 7.9%, the highest since the post-Covid manufacturing boom of 2021. That year, the rise in demand was matched by strong growth, but this time the electron feast comes as the country struggles with a downbeat economy.
Power and growth have long been connected. Electricity usage, rail freight and bank lending comprise the Li Keqiang Index — named after a comment by the former premier that those metrics provided a more accurate reflection of the economy than reported gross domestic product figures.
Demand is on track to outperform GDP for a fifth straight year.
China is second only to Japan among major economies for electrification rates. Power accounted for 28% of its energy consumption in 2022, compared with 11% in 2000, as heating and transportation electrify. That puts more pressure on coal but is still good for the climate because it replaces less efficient fossil-fuel use.
The danger for the climate is new demand sources such as data centers and cooling. Manufacturing of air conditioners jumped 15% in China last year after record heat in 2022, while September’s hot weather sent residential energy use surging.
No one wants to deprive people of lifesaving cooling during more-frequent bouts of extreme heat. But if Chinese consumers keep guzzling electricity at this pace, it will mean the clean-energy revolution has even more work to do than previously believed.
And, of course, we haven't even mentioned India.
Locator: 48674MMF.
After the market close:
Original Note
Note: what a great site to eat lunch. Watching national guard F-15s take off. Still look as modern as ever. Amazing.
Market: this is amazing, also -- NASDAQ hits another all-time record -- AAPL is actually in the green today -- and AMD is up 3% / up $5 today ahead of earnings report after market closes today -- as long as I'm checking, INTC? Down.
And then these headlines from CNBC online today:
Apple / AAPL: link here. Revenue jump on Chinese demand?
Apple / AAPL: link here. Broadens manufacturing base in India.
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Disclaimer
Brief
Reminder
Locator: 48673B.
The Grayson Mill Hovland wells. I may have this wrong, but I believe this is the story.
The original Hovland wells were first drilled back in May, 2014. They were still producing a small amount of well, on a pump, as of December, 2023, when they were taken off line by their new operator, Grayson Mill. The wells were placed on confidential list to be re-fracked. Confidential list, 4/24. Released from confidential list 10/24. Refrack results of one such well:
| Pool | Date | Days | BBLS Oil | Runs | BBLS Water | MCF Prod | MCF Sold | Vent/Flare |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAKKEN | 8-2024 | 28 | 16953 | 17108 | 28610 | 34465 | 26320 | 8033 |
| BAKKEN | 7-2024 | 31 | 22717 | 22774 | 61400 | 51114 | 36151 | 14839 |
| BAKKEN | 6-2024 | 30 | 22123 | 21527 | 124422 | 35932 | 27979 | 7854 |
| BAKKEN | 5-2024 | 2 | 121 | 98 | 4935 | 96 | 0 | 94 |
| BAKKEN | 4-2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 3-2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 2-2024 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 1-2024 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| BAKKEN | 12-2023 | 18 | 479 | 513 | 395 | 1190 | 1118 | 0 |
The new Hovland well will come off confidential list tomorrow, October 30, 2024.
| Date | Oil Runs | MCF Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 8-2024 | 24724 | 41893 |
| 7-2024 | 32984 | 54086 |
| 6-2024 | 15267 | 19398 |
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WTI: $67.63.
Wednesday, October 30, 2024: 60 for the month; 60 for the quarter, 574 for the year
Tuesday, October 29, 2024: 58 for the month; 58 for the quarter, 572 for the year
RBN Energy: how much natural gas storage capacity does Alberta really have?
For natural gas markets to operate as efficiently as possible, a lot of data is needed, including up-to-date estimates of the amount of gas in storage and the physical capacity to hold it. For too long, Canadian natural gas markets have been operating with an obvious blind spot: little to no reliable storage data. With Alberta being home to the largest amount of gas storage capacity in Canada, having accurate information could provide vital data in the pricing of Canadian natural gas. In today’s RBN blog, we begin a multi-part series examining Canadian natural gas storage, starting with Alberta.
Having an accurate reading on the amount of natural gas held in underground storage is a primary ingredient in the functioning of gas markets and the prompt and future pricing of this important commodity. If natural gas storage levels are deemed by the market to be too high, then prompt and future prices will likely pull back to incentivize more demand, discourage production and slow injections of gas into storage sites. The opposite is true when the amount of gas in storage is considered too low: prompt and future prices will rise to encourage more production, reduce demand and increase injections. The market’s general goal is an iterative process to ensure that an adequate amount of gas — but not too much — is socked away ahead of the high-demand winter months.
