QEP, Whiting To Post Some Big Wells In The Bakken This Week -- August 24, 2014

RBN Energy: day of reckoning -- when US refiners cannot process all the domestic crude. A must-read, must-save, essay.

Active rigs:

	8/25/2014	08/25/2013	08/25/2012	08/25/2011	08/25/2010
Active Rigs	192	184	189	195	138

Monday, August 25, 2014

• 19474, drl, Fram Operating, Nailor Trust 1, wildcat, 32-160-86, no production data,
• 25869, 2,938, QEP, Pogo 2-28-33TH, Grail, t3/14; cum 77 6/14;
• 25870, see below, QEP, Pogo 2-28-33BH, Grail, huge well,
• 25871, 2,322, QEP, Pogo 1-28-33BH, Grail, t3/14; cum 62K 6/14;
• 26196, drl, Murex, Diane Renee 3-10H, Writing Rock, no production data,
• 26319, 2,183, QEP, Pogo 28-33-27-34LL, Grail, t3/14; cum 64K 6/14;
• 26328, conf, XTO, Boomer Federal 34X-35H, Lost Bridge, no production data,
• 26467, 1,007, Newfield, Scott 150-99-13-24-4H, Siverston, t5/14; cum 30K 6/14;
• 26798, drl, HRC, Fort Berthold 152-94-24D-13-5H, Antelope, no production data,
• 26883, drl, Abraxas, Ravin 26-35-6H, North Fork, no production data,
• 27273, drl, Hess, EN-Hermanson-LE-155-93-3501H-1, Robinson Lake, no production data,
• 27274, drl, Slawson, Cruiser 3-16-9H, Big Bend, no production data,
• 27423, drl, XTO, Lyla 24X-10A, Lindahl, no production data,
• 27577, drl Statoil, Barstad 23-14 3H, Alger, no production data,
• 27712, drl, Statoil, Syverson 1-12 7TFH, Stony Creek, no production data,

Sunday, August 24, 2014

• 21774, 244, Whiting, Ash Coulee Federal 44-18TFH, Ash Coulee, t4/14; cum 7K 6/14;
• 26483, 1,154, Whiting, Cherry State 31-16H, Pleasant Hill, t3/14; cum 56K 6/14;
• 26484, 1,482, Whiting, Cherry State 31-16-2H, Pleasant Hill, t3/14; cum 60K 6/14;
• 27450, drl, CLR, Hartman 8-28H1, Chimney Butte, no production data,
• 27634, 60, Enduro, MRPSU 30-42-H1, Mouse River Park, a Madison well, t4/14; cum 2K 6/14;
• 27675, drl, Slawson, Mole 3-20H, Big Bend, no production data,
• 27714, drl, Statoil, Syverson 1-12 5TFH, Stony Creek, no production data,

Saturday, August 23, 2014

• 24002, drl, Statoil, Syverson 1-12 4H, Stony Creek, no production data,
• 26884, drl, Abraxas, Ravin 26-35-5H, North Fork, no production data,
• 27062, drl, BR, Norman 21-4TFH 3SH, Johnson Corner, no production data,
• 27185, 125, Hunt, Smokey Butte 160-100-31-30H-1, Smoky Butte, t5/14; cum 2K 6/14;
• 27199, drl, Petro-Hunt, Watterud 160-95-11D-2-2H, Stoneview, no production data,
• 27576, drl, Statoil, Barstad 23-14 7TFH, Alger, no production data,
• 27713, drl, Statoil, Syverson 1-12 6H, Stony Creek, no production data,

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 25869, see above, QEP, Pogo 2-28-33TH, Grail:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
6-2014	19817	4769
5-2014	24806	20541
4-2014	22010	12172
3-2014	10255	5628

25870, see above, QEP, Pogo 2-28-33BH, Grail:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
6-2014	10372	4287
5-2014	13624	22431
4-2014	19953	9709
3-2014	13462	6796

25871, see above, QEP, Pogo 1-28-33BH, Grail:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
6-2014	10304	4628
5-2014	10022	19699
4-2014	25550	11561
3-2014	16310	9279

26319, see above, QEP, Pogo 28-33-27-34LL, Grail:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
6-2014	16750	4180
5-2014	15235	17935
4-2014	21396	0
3-2014	9957	0

26467, see above, Newfield, Scott 150-99-13-24-4H, Siverston:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
6-2014	12585	15863
5-2014	16886	23215

26483, see above, Whiting, Cherry State 31-16H, Pleasant Hill:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
6-2014	8178	10545
5-2014	6225	9127
4-2014	14044	23588
3-2014	19012	12944
2-2014	7992	3698

26484, see above, Whiting, Cherry State 31-16-2H, Pleasant Hill:

Date	Oil Runs	MCF Sold
6-2014	7884	6342
5-2014	8719	9496
4-2014	15380	27205
3-2014	27307	27655
2-2014	0	174

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The Bakken: Second Impressions

I doubt legislators in Bismarck are really paying much attention to the Bakken. Not paying attention to something is how things take us by surprise. I have always been and remain inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken, but there are some realities.

Some random comments and/or observations that I have heard or seen in the first 48 hours after being back in the Bakken:

"A lot of oil service companies are moving out of the Bakken. There are too many oil service companies up here. Baker Hughes moved out." Of course, BHI did not move out completely, but I was told they no longer frack, only in "tools." I don't know. See comments below: BHI is still fracking in the Bakken, though their crews may now be based out of Dickinson, Minot. If accurate, and it sounds like it's accurate, it makes a lot of sense -- facility capacity for BHI in Dickinson, Minot where they also have huge footprint, AND it probably costs their folks less to live there. -- updated August 25, 2014.

"This past year was the worst year I ever had. There's no work." -- a welder.

The Bakken accounts for 12% of American oil production.

Daily posts at RBN Energy suggest there's a huge glut of light oil hitting the market, and the glut will only get worse. The US still needs to import oil because "light oil" is the wrong kind of oil for refineries along the gulf coast. What they need is heavy oil from Canada but the US "embargoes" Canadian heavy oil, preferring the same stuff from Venezuela.

The word on the street in Williston is that oil will hit $80/bbl. That's WTI. Bakken oil sells for a huge discount to WTI -- it fluctuates based on the amount of light oil hitting the markets. I used to say the Bakken would do fine at $60/bbl (investors wouldn't) but that was before the Permian and the Eagle Ford. Now I'm not so sure.

North Dakota is producing 1 million bopd. Texas could add another 1 million bopd in production by this time next year. If there's a glut of light oil hitting the market now, and Texas does add another 1 million bopd by next year ... [memo to self -- insert Lana Del Rey's Summertime Sadness here].

Pad drilling is changing everything. Lots of unanticipated consequences.  My hunch is truck traffic is way down. Could be wrong. But I certainly don't see as many 18-wheelers as I did last summer. Maybe all the new bypasses are changing things. Maybe they're just spread out. Maybe the truckers are where I'm not. The traffic, in general, however, is way up. POVs and commercial pick-ups and specialty trucks. Part of the congestion is due to all the road construction in Williston and the school year starting, but still, there's a lot of traffic. Where it used to take me three minutes to get to the coffee shop (driving), it now takes four minutes. Is that a 25% increase or a 33% increase in driving time?

The residential units keep going up. As much as ever. Folks worry that they are over-building. When will we know that we have enough? Driving up to the Bakken a couple days ago, I passed a "hotel" that was built about two years ago. Of course, it was fully occupied the day the doors opened. But this time it appears the hotel was now corporate headquarters and living quarters for a earth-moving company; the parking lot was full of brand new earth-movers. I don't think it was a dealership. Smile.

I haven't checked to see if there's been any change (doubt it) but a year or so ago, one of the biggest motels (pre-boom) was turned over to one oil company.

The big road construction projects are nowhere near the end. The five-lane construction project between Watford City and Williston has a long way to go. And we haven't even begun to see movement on the new bridge across the Missouri south of the 4-mile corner west of Williston. That's not going to be a trivial project.

What  oil activity we see along the major thoroughfares in western North Dakota pales in comparison to what is going on in the back country.

A lot more families, children, college, co-eds out and about. Many, many more young couples. The demographics are changing.

Few discouraging words are heard in the Bakken.

To The Best Of My Knowledge, There's No Fracking In Northern California -- August 24, 2014

Earthquake with magnitude of 6.0 hits San Francisco area overnight.

Meanwhile Maureen Dowd, on a completely different note, has a column on President Obama in The Washington Post. Apparently there is more talk about the President's golf game than Tiger's golf game (what little there might be of that).  For newbies, Ms Dowd, politically, is a bit left of Algore. This is her opening:

FORE! Score? And seven trillion rounds ago, our forecaddies brought forth on this continent a new playground, conceived by Robert Trent Jones, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal when it comes to spending as much time on the links as possible — even when it seems totally inappropriate, like moments after making a solemn statement condemning the grisly murder of a 40-year-old American journalist beheaded by ISIL.

I know reporters didn’t get a chance to ask questions, but I had to bounce. I had a 1 p.m. tee time at Vineyard Golf Club with Alonzo Mourning and a part-owner of the Boston Celtics. Hillary and I agreed when we partied with Vernon Jordan up here, hanging out with celebrities and rich folks is fun.

Something tells me the international Muslim community will come to rue the day when the "Islamic State" went mainstream. 

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I'm in a Lana Del Rey mood this morning, 7:45 a.m., overcast, cool (cold?), intermittent rain -- though it appears that it might have rained itself out overnight -- but with the Napa Valley earthquake, maybe, this is better --

California Dreamin', The Mamas and the Papas

My father and I went out for Mexican dinner last night. We struck up a conversation with two seasoned oil workers. They had both been in the Bakken for about two and a half years. They have long commutes: one lives in Roseau, Minnesota (457 miles); the other in Las Vegas (1,285 miles).

The former moved to Roseau so his sons could play hockey. I remember years ago, while stationed at Grand Forks AFB, how Roseau was the hockey capital of the world, it seemed. I don't remember why that was so. Lots of hockey up there. It must be incredibly beautiful. Lake Country. Ten miles from Canada.

I mentioned that I thought the Las Vegas economy was coming back. Yes, it was and quite nicely -- one difference -- wages were coming in lower than pre-recession. He said he had been in the oil industry for 27 years when he retired, but after 11 months he couldn't take retirement any more. His friends told him he should "travel the world" in retirement. He noted that he "traveled the world" for 27 years while working oil. He loves what he is doing now. He looked to be 35 years old.

We talked a bit of oil, and I would have loved to talk more, but I got the feeling they enjoyed talking about everything other than oil. Incredibly knowledgeable and incredibly witty.

I would like to add their nationalities / ethnic background but it would spoil the story.

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Global Warming

If that volcano blows, Great Britain could experience coldest winter in its history. I think the UK is well-prepared: they have all that solar and wind energy ready to kick in if extra energy is needed for heating homes.