Sunday, June 13, 2021

Off To The Races -- June 13, 2021

Updates

June 14, 2021: head fake? Nothing being reported today. 

Original Post 

Tomorrow should be an interesting day.  

See this post

Now this from our twitter friends. No one knows, but let the chatter begin.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Last WTI quote: $71.21. Brent: $72.98. 

From twitter: this is a big one.

From replies: who can handle $10 billion besides CVX and XOM. And this is a $14 billion deal

Shoutout to buy-side bankers who managed to keep this quiet for all of a month.

Wow. 

OXY is the one to watch.

We need to go to 24/7 trading. This artificial 9:30 a.m. 4:00 p.m ET trading is ridiculous. I can hardly wait. Do I stay up all night, waiting, or go to bed early and get up at 5:00 a.m. to see how this begins to play out? 

OXY: Friday close, $28.33. Opened at $28.90. Traded in the red all day. Down 57 cents for the day, or about 1.9%.

Notes From All Over -- The Sunday Night Edition -- Shell Sells Permian -- June 13, 2021

Updates

June 14, 2021: head fake? Nothing being reported today. 

Original Post 

I was thinking about Aubrey the other day -- a most extraordinary oil and natural gas wheeler-dealer. 

Wow, wow, wow, stop the presses: this was rumored earlier today, that Shell might sell its Permian assets ... breaking now --- Sable Permian Resources will acquire Shell's Permian assets for $14 billion. Link here. Why not? Sable Permian Resources emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy, February 9, 2021. Missed interest payment, April 3. 2020

Sable, founded by the late shale drilling pioneer Aubrey McClendon, drills in the Permian Basin in West Texas. The company, backed by OnyxPoint Global Management and Energy & Minerals Group, was able to restructure about $2.1 billion of debt in October in an out-of-court deal. But five months later, investors who received new bonds as part of the restructuring deal aren’t being paid interest.

This is so off everyone's radar scope, folks are asking whether this has been confirmed. Some say Jamie Dimon has provided his "personal guarantee." 

I can't wait to see the details. RDS-B closed up 1.14% on Friday, closed up 43 cents, closed at $38.24. RDS-B to plummet in the a.m.? Or surge? $14 billion is a lot of cash, one way or the other.

***********************************
Notes From All Over

Now back to where I was five minutes ago.

To say the least, my heart is not in this. 

I think today was the first "best" day I've had so far this summer. Supposedly it was the hottest day so far this year in north Texas. I spent four incredibly difficult hours in the local park while I sweated and Sophia enjoyed the splash pad with her friends. One hundred six degrees, and one hundred percent humidity? I don't know but I wouldn't be surprised. 

But then Sophia and I went to our apartment complex had three, maybe four, wonderful hours in the pool. It was incredible. Even after her dad and her sisters picked her up to go out to dinner, I spent another hour in the pool. Wow, it was wonderful. 

Right now, 9:54 p.m. CT and it's 93°. Holy mackerel. Think about that 93° at 10:00 p.m. Ready for another swim.

I can't wait until tomorrow. 

************************************
Back To What I'm Getting Paid For

Amazon -- from The WSJ:

Since the beginning of the pandemic, Amazon says it has added 50 million Prime members and made profits of over $26 billion, more than the previous three years combined. As Amazon purchases increased, so did review manipulation. Sellers are taking advantage of the online shopping frenzy, using new methods to bolster ratings on products ranging from cordless vacuums to toilet-paper holders. For shoppers, this can mean diminished overall trust and frustration, as they try to pick a winner from a crowded field of low-quality, no-name “five star” items, mostly from China.

Let's forget about the rest of the paragraph. Let's just re-post the really, really important data point:

Since the beginning of the pandemic, Amazon says it has added 50 million Prime members and made profits of over $26 billion, more than the previous three years combined.

Think about that: in one year, Amazon has added 50 million Prime members (a subscription runs about $130/year) and profits of $26 billion, more than the previous three year combined

Mandatory vaccine: Oh, this is huge. The link is hardly needed; the story is everywhere.  "The court" upholds Houston hospital's mandatory vaccine policy: 

The 117 suing workers, including plaintiff Jennifer Bridges, a nurse for almost seven years at the hospital system, had their own choices to make, the judge said. Bridges and other plaintiffs had every right to accept or refuse the vaccine. “If she refuses, she will simply need to work somewhere else,” the decision said.

It will be appealed all the way to the US Supreme Court.  

Shell rumored to sell its Permian assets. 

Royal Dutch Shell is reviewing its holdings in the largest U.S. oil field for a potential sale, people familiar with the matter told Reuters, marking a key moment in its shift away from fossil fuels as it faces growing pressure to slash carbon emissions.

The sale could be for part or all of Shell's position in the U.S. Permian Basin, located mostly in Texas, which accounted for around 6% of the Anglo-Dutch company's total oil and gas output last year. The holdings could be worth more than $10 billion, the people said.

Have ESG shareholders gone mad? LOL. This could be easiest ten years of investing in my fifty-year span of investing. 

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

Ah, Yes -- The Confusion -- June 13, 2021

I was baffled. I never had time to post my thoughts on this earlier, but, yes, I was quite baffled by the IEA.

Then it all made sense. I've talked about this before. 

One needs to know the time-frame; otherwise we may be talking past each other. 

In this case:

  • long term, the IEA wants our great-great-grandchildren to "pay the costs of getting to net-zero"; but,
  • short term, the IEA wants to make sure adequate crude oil will be supplied. 

The Swiss understand this. 

Those living in the cities want to pass the cost down to their great-great-grandchildren. Those in the countryside see the scam. 

Re-Posting G-7 Communique On EVs -- Commentary Added -- Merkel Wins -- June 13, 2021

Link here.

Group of Seven nations backed away from plans to set a target for making sure most new cars sold are greener vehicles, instead pledging only [to] speed up efforts to move away from combustion engines. 
In the final communique Sunday, the bloc include an autos section that was far more modest than earlier versions being discussed. It pledged to do more to electrify the transport sector but didn’t set firm target dates. 

Most interesting: in these "for-show" communiques, the goals are always overstated. To back away even a bit is a huge story.  

Note: the "backpedaling" on "new car sales" may simply be one person's opinion; the G-7 will argue it did not backpedal, and perhaps they did not. But if the meme holds, that the G-7 did, indeed, backpedal, the discussion has changed.

The obvious question, of course, is what drove this decision? This had to have driven a lot of discussion.

  • the earth hangs in the balance; literally hangs in the balance according to Algore, AOC, others.
  • this would be the #1 take-away for this group; 
    • the headline; the way the 47th G-7 would define itself.

Let's look at the participants (those in the "G-7 photo in bold):

  • Australia:
  • Canada:
  • France:
  • Germany:
  • India:
  • Italy:
  • Japan:
  • South Africa:
  • South Korea;
  • UK:
  • US;
  • EU, president of the European Council:
  • EU, president of the European Commission:

Another attendee as host, but not in the photo or listed as an official participant: the Queen.

First observations:

  • The EU seems to be over-represented: three countries plus two EU reps, or five positions on the 9-position stage;
  • one assumes the five would have been somewhat united in arguing their case
  • none of these leaders will be on the G-7 stage in 2030, so they had nothing to lose from that perspective; they could have issued a joint communique that that their successors would hold the 2035 meeting on the moon for that matter;
  • so, to step back on EVs is a big, big deal -- especially when the earth is at stake! Greta is aghast!

Second observation:

  • this tells me that none of these guys seriously believes the earth-as-we-know-it is at risk due to manmade CO2 emissions

Third observations:

  • weighted opinion among those at the table, on a scale of 1 to 10:
  • Australia: 3 (coal)
  • Canada: 4 (oil sands)
  • France: 0
  • Germany: 8 (automobile manufacturing, energy sector, economy)
  • India: 0
  • Italy: 0
  • Japan: 5 (economic powerhouse, EV batteries)
  • South Africa: 0
  • South Korea: 0 (should be 8, economic powerhouse; automobile manufacturing; EV potential)
  • UK: 1
  • US (as a country, 8; Biden: 0)
  • so, Germany probably dominated the conversation; in addition, Merkel -- of all participants, has the most gravitas; the EU economy is driven by Germany
    • she also speaks English -- host country -- fluently
    • science background
  • Biden recently said "climate change" biggest risk to US, earth; it had been "white supremacy" prior to the G-7 meeting. If Biden said "climate change" was the biggest risk, why would his public opinion not prevail?

    • Perhaps:
      • Biden's private opinions differ from public statements;
      • unable to debate effectively any more (if ever);
      • Biden has little credibility with others at G-7;
  • Polls:
    • most of these leaders will not be defeated/re-elected based on their "global warming" positions;
    • therefore, the participants did not make their decision based on polling; in fact, from a polling point of view, it would have been easier, less controversial, not to backpedal; the mainstream media cannot support this backpedaling;
  • Reality:
    • once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth
      • the impossible; meeting prior EV hyperbole; 
      • the improbable: the G-7 backpedals
    • the German automobile manufacturing sector convinced Merkel she needed to step back; 
      • margins on EVs are ridiculously low;
      • Germans will lose their automobile manufacturing dominance to Asia (China, South Korea, Japan)
      • the unions are in charge
  • Lots of verbiage, bottom line: why did G-7 backpedal on EVs? 
    • polling: no
    • reality: yes
      • Germany vs Asia
      • Merkel wins

The Mark Sandstrom (B-C-G-K-MS-N) pad.

The Mark Sandstrom (B-C-G-K-MS-N) pad.

  • 27555, 1,922, MRO, Keith 44-31TFH, Reunion Bay, t8/14; cum 292K 4/21; 
  • 27152, 2,253, MRO, Cloon 14-32H, Reunion Bay, t8/14; cum 368K 4/21; 
  • 27151, 2,208, MRO, Glisar 14-32TFH, Reunion Bay, t8/14; cum 264K 4/21; 
  • 37777, conf, MRO, Bulls Eye USA 41-6TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data, 
  • 37778, conf, MRO, Norman Eye USA 11-5H, Reunion Bay, no production data,

Parent well:

  • 17502, 637, MRO, Mark Sandstrom 14-32H, Reunion Bay, t12/08; cum 567K 4/21; huge jump in production back in August, 2014;

The  Jay Sandstrom pad is about a half-mile to the west.

The House Of Cards Starts To Fall -- June 13, 2021

Link here.

Group of Seven nations backed away from plans to set a target for making sure most new cars sold are greener vehicles, instead pledging only speed up efforts to move away from combustion engines. 
In the final communique Sunday, the bloc include an autos section that was far more modest than earlier versions being discussed. It pledged to do more to electrify the transport sector but didn’t set firm target dates. 

Most interesting: in these "for-show" communiques, the goals are always overstated. To back away even a bit is a huge story.  

Initial Production Data For Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- June 13, 2021

The wells:

  • 37375, conf, CRL, Gale 7-32H, Cedar Coulee, no production data, 
  • 36851, conf, Hess, EN-VP And R-LW-154-94-2536H-1, Alkali Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20212018430463
3-20212168229879
2-20212517732277
1-20213886740812
12-2020217556773
  • 35807, conf, Petro-Hunt, Hagen 144-98-12D-1-2H, Little Knife, no production data, 
  • 37373, conf, CLR, Gale 5-32H, Cedar Coulee, no production data, 
  • 36223, conf, MRO, Sherman USA 21-2TFH, Antelope,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20213421562183
3-20215653185185
2-20215255667549
1-20215789158189
12-20202759917679
  • 34333, conf, Ovintiv, Kestrel 154-96-33-28-10H, Grinnell,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20214370
  • 37778, conf, MRO, Norman USA 11-5H, Reunion Bay, no production data,
  • 34332, conf, Ovintiv, Kestrel 154-96-33-28-2H, Grinnell,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20214370
  • 37777, conf, MRO, Bulls Eye USA 41-6TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data, 
  • 36850, conf, Hess, EN-VP And R-154-94-2536H-15, Alkali Creek,
DateOil RunsMCF Sold
4-20211659021739
3-20211711222162
2-20212335630779
1-20213744938288
12-20203132520227
  • 37774, conf, MRO, Odell USA 41-6H, Reunion Bay, no production data, 
  • 37396, conf, CLR, Rodney 11-29H1, Cedar Coulee, no production data, 
  • 37773, conf, MRO, Perry USA 41-6TFH, no production data, 
  • 37772, conf, MRO, Little Owl USA 31-6TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data, 
  • 37397, conf, CLR, Rodney 10-29H1, Cedar Coulee, no production data, 
  • 37771, drl/NC, MRO, Plenty Horns USA 31-6H, Reunion Bay, no production data, 
  • 37483, drl/NC, BR, F Jorgenson 1A TFH, Elidah, no production data, 
  • 36934, 720, Oasis, Thelen 5297 43-34 10B, Banks,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20213029848298532211289747883891186
BAKKEN3-20213132676326042414478991753323482
BAKKEN2-20212831728317172753593114919051048
BAKKEN1-20212418273182611840358388572181033
BAKKEN12-2020132929150431
  • 37770, drl/NC, MRO, Mabel USA 21-6TFH, Reunion Bay, no production data, 
  • 37398, conf, CLR, Rodney 9-29H, Cedar Coulee, no production data, 
  • 36849, 2,591, Hess, EN-VP and R-154-94-2536H-13, Alkali Creek,
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN4-20213015801159508261307743076410
BAKKEN3-20212816506165468410293692935613
BAKKEN2-20212819997201161016031526315260
BAKKEN1-20213131455312191763447935427465189
BAKKEN12-202019388673847516982480262961918407

Wells Coming Off The Confidential List This Next Week -- June 13, 2021

Monday, June 21, 2021:
37375, conf, CRL, Gale 7-32H,
36851, conf,  Hess, EN-VP And R-LW-154-94-2536H-1,
35807, conf, Petro-Hunt, Hagen 144-98-12D-1-2H,

Sunday, June 20, 2021:
None.

Saturday, June 19, 2021:
37373, conf,  CLR, Gale 5-32H,
36223, conf,  MRO, Sherman USA 21-2TFH,
34333, conf, Ovintiv, Kestrel 154-96-33-28-10H,

Friday, June 18, 2021:
37778, conf, MRO, Norman USA 11-5H,
34332, conf, Ovintiv, Kestrel 154-96-33-28-2H,

Thursday, June 17, 2021:
37777, conf, MRO, Bulls Eye USA 41-6TFH,
36850, conf, Hess, EN-VP And R-154-94-2536H-15,

Wednesday, June 16, 2021:
37774, conf, MRO, Odell USA 41-6H,
37396, conf,  CLR, Rodney 11-29H1,

Tuesday, June 15, 2021:
37773, conf, MRO, Perry USA 41-6TFH,

Monday,  June 14, 2021:
37772, conf,  MRO, Little Owl USA 31-6TFH, Reunion Bay,
37397, conf, CLR, Rodney 10-29H1, Cedar Coulee,

Sunday, June 13, 2021:
37771, conf, MRO, Plenty Horns USA 31-6H, Reunion Bay,
37483, conf, BR, F Jorgenson 1A TFH, Elidah,
36934, conf, Oasis, Thelen 5297 43-34 10B, Banks,

Saturday, June 12, 2021:
37770, conf, MRO, Mabel USA 21-6TFH, Reunion Bay,
37398, conf, CLR, Rodney 9-29H, Cedar Coulee,
36849, conf, Hess, EN-VP and R-154-94-2536H-13, Alkali Creek,

Bozeman, MT -- June 13, 2021

Re-posting with updates

I believe I read an article earlier this year suggesting Bozeman, MT, was the fastest growing city in the US. If not the "fastest" growing city in the US, certainly in the running.

My sister sent me this photo of herself taken this evening “in” Bozeman. Outside temperature apparently 73°. 

Note: there is an empty chair just waiting for you. 

Later: They're reading the blog. Less than twelve hours after posting the story above, Fox News: Montana, the sold-out state New Yorkers can't get enough of. 

Link: https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/montana-sold-out-state-new-yorkers-cant-get-enough. 

And from a reader, from the NY Times, behind a paywall, this op-ed, May 12, 2021: my beloved college town has a problem: it's too popular. The "town"? Bozeman, MT.  Posted here, not behind a paywall: link.  

********************************
Meanwhile, In Texas

Our middle granddaughter plays for the FC Dallas (actually she plays on two FC Dallas club teams -- she plays on an "05" team and an "06" team). 

Add Another Log On The Fire -- June 13, 2021

Bring yourself up to date. And here. A pdf listing with 90 names.

It seems just like yesterday

Now, today's story (broke yesterday) -- link here.

The Dallas-area native had in 2017 returned to Alabama to anchor the ABC station’s evening news show, after working for a TV station in Phoenix. While there, Sign broke the major 2016 presidential campaign news that former president Clinton in June 2016 met at Sky Harbor Airport with Lynch while the attorney general was investigating former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s use of an private email server. 
Christopher Sign, 45, was found dead Saturday morning by Hoover police in his Scout Terrace home, according to Al.com. The death is being investigated as a suicide, Hoover Lt. Keith Czeskleba said, according to the outlet.