Establishing Presence Of The Seasonal Flu Virus And Typing The Various Types / Strains -- February 8, 2026

Locator: 49936SEASONALFLU.

One of the things I learned in medical school was how helpful laboratory technicians could be. Classroom didactics made a lot more sense when "we" took that information and saw how it was "translated" in the laboratory. It's the same analogy that the tech sector figures out how to "monetize" their very, very high-level work. 

Our professor could talk to us for two hours on antigenic properties of the various types of flu. But that information was reinforced when we went to the hospital's clinical laboratory and saw how laboratory techs identified the presence or absence of virus and what kind of influenza virus it was, if present. 

It took me three attempts to get to the right question before Gemini explained what I did not understand, but this is exactly how students are now learning much more effectively and efficiently than I ever did.

My IA prompt: 

Aha, so in the lab, when ruling out influenza, they place the human secretion in a broth with antigens for Hx, Nx, M, ad NP? And then go from there?

Gemini's reply:

Interestingly, I did the same "stuff" during a college research project one summer outside of Point Barrow, Alaska. I just didn't know what I was doing. LOL. I need to start life over. LOL.

Wow, I can't wait to explain this to Sophia. 

1. For complete list of antigens, google: seasonal flu schematic genetic material (M), matrix, membrane, surface antigens HxNx. 

2. Then link here. 

AI prompt: 

Once identified, how long (days, weeks, months) did it take for scientists to identify all the genes / proteins of Covid-19?

Gemini:

You all know where this is going. I will let you ask Gemini the next obvious question.

This would be one of the next obvious questions: once they had the genetic map (all genes) of Covid-19 identified, it was just a matter of time to develop a vaccine. What was the rate-limiting step in developing that vaccine and is AI likely to address that rate-limiting step?

Education: when I look at the above, I'm beginning to think at the college / university / graduate / doctorate level, we will move from "generic" professors to "facilitators." A facilitator will be defined as a professor with special skills in AI / working with chatbots and working with students to develop their own "curricula." UC-Santa Cruz has been doing that for decades and so has to Stanford, but in a more subtle way than US-Santa Cruz. Students will continue to collaborate with their professors / facilitators and fellow students on teams but a chatbot, whom they will name, will become an equal partner within the team. There is an analogy within medicine that occurred many decades ago but don't have time to talk about that now. But it's biggest fallout: physicians were now called "health care providers" and an equal member of the health care team.

Influenza -- Week 3, 2026 -- It's Subtle But The Second Wave Is About To Appear -- February 1, 2026

Locator: 49878FLU.

Link here. 

Influenza -- "Seasonal Flu" -- Sudden Plunge In Cases -- Vaccine Doesn't Work This Year -- January 30, 2026

Locator: 49881FLU.

Link here. 

Seasonal Flu -- A Deeper Look -- Influenza 101 — January 11, 2026

Locator: 49879INFLUENZA. 

Tag: 

A report on this year's seasonal flu, posted back on November 12, 2025. Link here. The authors try to spin the story. 

In a long note like this, there will by typographical and content errors. Not proofread prior to posting.  

There are two main types of human seasonal flu:

• influenza A 
• influenza B

Both circulate annually

• A: often leading to more severe illness and pandemics
• B: generally milder, later-season outbreaks

Timing:

• A: generally appears first, earlier in the season; think -- before the New Year
• B: generally appears second, later in the season; think -- after the New Year
• explains why the double spike in flu cases annually; there may be other reasons, also

Host:

• A: animal hosts, particularly birds and pigs
• B: only human; no other animal host 

Main types

• A: subtyped (like H1N1, H3N2) because it rapidly mutates
• subtypes are further typed by clades
• because this year's K clade is particularly virulent, we'll probably be hearing more about "clades" in the future 
• B: strains, like Yamagata (not seen since 2000, link here; first seen in 1988) and Victoria (currently circulating); 
• is Covid somehow related to demise of Yamagata?
• Yamagata, Japan: far north of Tokyo on main island; west of Sendai 

"Strains" / main types:

• A: subtypes, divided by surface proteins (H & N); e.g.:
• A(H1N1 and A(H3N2)
• mutates rapidly and often; leads to new strains and pandemics
• subtypes are further typed by clades
• because this year's K clade is particularly virulent, we'll probably be hearing more about "clades" in the future 
• B: lineages, not subtypes 
• long history of lineages; seldom mutates; no need to subtype
• seldom mutates
• only two lineages in recent history: Yamagata, Victoria
• Yamagata: believed extinct; hasn't been seen since 2000; some disagree;
• Victoria circulating now
• evolved separately, primarily in their HA (or H) protein
• thus vaccinating for one won't protect against both

Current season, 2025 - 2026

• influenza A: A(H3N2)
• subclade K; new, n    ot seen before; seems to be particularly virulent
• influenza B: Victoria strain

Current vaccine, 2025 - 2026

• all flu vaccines are now trivalent
• exception: nasal FluMist quadrivalent 
• target three different types of influenza:
• two types of influenza A
• A(H3N2), J.2 subclade
• subclade K: J.2.4.1 -- but subclade "migrated" antigenically from vaccine
• A(H1N1) 
• one type of influenza B (since Yamagata strain has not been seen since 2000)
• up until recently, the vaccines had been quadrivalent (to also cover Yamagata)

Fluzone and Fluzone High-Dose

• most common vaccine; probably the one you were given; link here;
• Fluzone High-Dose: specifically designed for folks >65 years of age
• preservative-free, single-dose
• contains 4x the amount of antigen compared to standard-dose flu vaccines
• A/Victoria/4897/2022 (H1N1)pdm09-like virus
• A/Croatia/10136RV/2023 (H3N2)-like strain
• B/Austria/1359417/2021-like (B/Michigan/01/2021-like, B Victoria lineage) virus

Effectiveness:

• Subclade K "drifted" from vaccine shortly after vaccine developed 
• Recent 2025 data published in The Lancet showed Sanofi's high-dose vaccine significantly reduced the risk of hospitalizations for pneumonia/influenza and cardio-respiratory events in older adults. 

Spanish Flu:

• exceptionally deadly
• H1N1, not further subtyped?
• first seen:
• Camp Funston, Kansas (USA), March, 1918, possibly earlier in Haskell County, Kansas 
• Etaples, France, or Aldershot, England in late 1916 / early 1917
• northern China: late 1917
• how it could have spread: Chinese laborers were then mobilized and transported across North America to the Western Front, potentially spreading the virus along the way. 
• why "Spanish Flu"?
• this flu was incredibly deadly (particularly in the West) at the same time major fighting (WWI)
• due to deaths and WWI, military authorities censored release of flu data; did not want to give enemies intel regarding effect of flu on fighting forces
• Spain was a neutral country; thus no censorship; and reported cases and high number of cases reported relative to other countries, led it to be called "Spanish Flu"; in fact, it appears there was nothing "Spanish" about it.
• based on all we know about seasonal flu now, the Chinese source seems most likely

Which was worse? Covid-19 or Spanish flu

• this is interesting (note: most of the information below was as of 2021 -- when the Covid 19 outbreak was still significant):
• globally: Spanish flu -- 50 to 100 million deaths
• America: it took awhile but apparently Covid-19 is now considered the deadliest disease even in America, surpassing that of the 1918 Spanish flu; link here. 
• numbers:
• Spanish flu, 1918: 675,000 US deaths stretched over two years; no vaccine; burned itself out on its own
• Covid-19: as of September 20, 2021, 675,400 US deaths
• of great concern considering how aggressive the US was managing Covid:
• U.S. deaths make up roughly 14% of the nearly 4.7 million fatalities that have been reported worldwide in this pandemic to date, even though the country’s population comprises only about 4.2% of the global population. Could be simply a reporting phenomenon, but still 4% vs 14% is a huge anomaly.
• US Civil War: generally accepted, 620,000 deaths, but new data suggests upwards of 750,000 deaths in the US Civil War
• Population growth in the US: Comparing events that happened more than a century apart has its perils. For instance, the population of the United States in 1918 was a third of what it is now. So as a percentage of the national population, the Spanish flu deaths still has the lead on Covid-19.
• Mean age of those dying:
• 1918, Spanish flu: age 28
• Covid-19: mostly the elderly
• Bottom line: thus, in terms of cumulative years of life lost, the Spanish flu’s impact thus remains greater.

Swine flu, pandemic, 2009

• "swine flu" is an influenza A(H1N1) virus -- H1N1 was originally from pigs, but now a common seasonal flu
• at the time it was a novel influenza A(H1N1) -- caused the first flu pandemic in over 40 years 
• "the A(H1N1)pdm09 strain became seasonal H1N1, and a specific swine H3N2 variant later incorporated a gene from that H1N1 strain"

Confusing the issue:

A(H3N2) variant viruses emerged in pigs with H1N1 genes: A separate swine-origin H3N2 variant virus, known as A(H3N2)v, emerged in humans around 2011. 

This specific H3N2v virus was concerning because it had acquired the matrix (M) gene from the 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus, which was thought to contribute to its transmissibility to humans. This variant virus is different from the standard seasonal human H3N2 virus.

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January 15, 2026

AI prompt: generally speaking does the CDC subtype all influenza strains when they come in or do they usually just type them to HN?

AI prompt: what is the "pdm09" on A(H1N1)pdm09; and why is that noted for A(H1N1) but not for A(H3N2)?

 

"Flu Epidemic" Takes Awesome Reversal -- January 10, 2026

Locator: 49869FLU.

I guess President Trump had a "come-to-Jesus" meeting with the "season flu gods" and the latter has agreed to reverse the "flu" trend.

Link here. Data for week 53, ending January 3, 2026. Every chart below shows a stunning reversal.

The map looks better than last week:

Laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations, huge reversal:

"Seasonal Flu" Update -- January 2, 2026

Locator: 49782FLU.

A lot of stories in the mainstream media about the surge in "seasonal flu." That is true. Whether this is worse than last year or not is yet to be seen. It appears the current "flu" season started about two weeks earlier than last year and has the identical parabolic trajectory. 

Link here, week 51, ending December 20, 2025. We may get an update later today.  

The most recent graphic with only last year's data and this year's data presented:

In the big scheme of things, it's a pediatric threat, not so much for adults, and especially not for seniors who appear to be less effected (every year). 

Seniors get their flu shots. I haven't had flu in decades; in fact, I can't remember ever having the "flu." Vaccines were mandatory in the military. I've got a history of nearly 50 years of annual flu shots. Knock on wood. Although immunity from a specific flu shot decreases over time, I've always maintained there's always a few white cells that "remember" older flu shots. I know I'm wrong, but I like to think that.

Some say the flu virus can't survive the extreme cold in North Dakota. I doubt that's true, but I also like to think that. I doubt I ever got a flu shot until I was in my 30's -- I came on active duty at age 27 or thereabouts. 

So far this year, the southern states, the Atlantic seaboard, and New England seem to have been hit particularly hard.

Monday -- December 22, 2025

Locator: 49761B. 

Disclaimer: see blog's disclaimer. Posted multiple locations on the blog. Most important: there are always lots of typographical and/or content errors. If found, they are corrected. If something looks wrong, it probably is. The purpose of this site is to help me keep track of what's going on. I have a very poor memory. Years ago I decided to open it to others. 

Flu: looks like my flu shot was perfectly timed! LOL. In The New York Times this morning. Link here. My experience here.

The big three: according to Jim Cramer -- Gemini, OpenAI, Anthropic --> Google, ChatGPT, Claude.  

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Back to the Bakken

WTI: $57.92. Relative large jump due to news coming out of Venezuela.

New wells being reported this week:

• Monday, December 22, 2025: 53 for the month, 176 for the quarter, 759 for the year,
• 41701, conf, Marlo Operating, TOSCO Branch 5, 
• 41106, conf, Devon Energy, Helling 16-21 2H, 
• 40971, conf, Devon Energy, Costanza 24-13 8H, 
• Sunday, December 21, 2025: 50 for the month, 173 for the quarter, 757 for the year,
• 40968, conf, Devon Energy, Costanza 24-13 4H, 
• 40935, conf, BL-Herfindahl-156-95-3031H-9,
• Saturday, December 20, 2025: 48 for the month, 171 for the quarter, 755 for the year,
• 41690, conf, CLR, Sibbern Federal 4-22H, 
• 41279, conf, Hess, BB-Rice-LW-150-95-07H-1,
• 41014, conf, Devon Energy, L And E 9-4 2H, 

RBN Energy: a renewed push for tighter gas-electric coordination as potential crises loom. Link here. Archived.

There are widely differing views about how much U.S. demand for electricity may rise over the next few years due to the emergence of AI and large-scale data centers and how much that may impact demand for natural gas. But there’s across-the-board agreement that (1) the electric and gas sectors are more intertwined and interdependent than ever and (2) electric-grid reliability will suffer if more isn’t done to ensure gas-fired plants get the fuel they need when they need it. Now, after years of mostly tinkering around the edges, real action on gas-electric coordination looks to be at hand, thanks to a new push by Energy Secretary Chris Wright and the National Petroleum Council (NPC). In today’s RBN blog, we discuss highlights from a new NPC report and why we think it matters.

We’ll start with the big picture on power. The economics of coal- vs. gas-fired generation may still shift month to month and year to year, but natural gas is the undisputed king of power, accounting for well over 40% of the electricity produced in the U.S. in recent years (brown layer in Figure 1 below). Coal, with a roughly 16% share (teal layer) isn’t even #2 or #3 nowadays — those spots now go to hydroelectric and other renewables (blue and orange layers, respectively), with a combined 21%, and nuclear (light-green layer), with 18%. Petroleum (fuel oil/diesel; yellow layer) brings up the rear, with less than 1%. Contrast that with the U.S. generation split back in 2001, when coal accounted for 51% of total production, nuclear was the runner-up at 21% and gas finished third at only 17%.

 

This Year's Seasonal Flu Vaccine: Absolutely Of No Benefit -- Vaccinated Much More Likely To Acquire Seasonal Flu Than Non-Vaccinated -- Sure Glad I Got My Seasonal Flu Vaccination For This Season -- Comparative Mortality Rates Are Stunning -- April 9, 2025

Locator: 48451SEASONALFLU.

Link here.

Seasonal flu vaccine, 2024 - 2025 season:

• 43,857 employees, Cleveland Clinic, Ohio
• 82.1% vaccinated by the end of the study
• 1,079 (2.02%): came down with influenza
• cumulative incidence of influenza was similar to vaccinated and unvaccinated states early but over the course of the study the cumulative incidence of influenza increased more rapidly among the vaccinated than the unvaccinated
• bottom line: the risk of influenza was significantly higher for the vaccinated group compared to the unvaccinated group
• calcuated vaccine effectiveness: - 26.9%
• conclusion:
• This study found that influenza vaccination of working-aged adults was associated with a higher risk of influenza during the 2024-2025 respiratory viral season, suggesting that the vaccine has not been effective in preventing influenza this season.

Not only is this absolutely amazing, but for all the effort, good, bad, or indifferent, only 2% of all individuals came down with influenza, and most cases would have been very, very minor-- close to asymptomatic and not picked up at all had they not been part of the study.

For laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations, this has been the worse year since 2009 -- first year data collected for this graphic. Link here.

Mortality rates. Did the vaccine actually make things worse?

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Measles

Meanwhile, the measles outbreak in Texas shows no signs of slowing. In fact, the most recent data suggests cases may be increasing at a faster rate than the previous week.

Total number of cases in the "outbreak area" now total 505, an increase of 24 since the last report one week ago. 

Last Seasonal Flu -- Covid-19 Post For The 2023 - 2024 Season -- February 9, 2024

Locator: 46770FLU.

Unless something  unexpected happens, this will be the last post on seasonal flu / Covid-19 for the 2023 - 2024 season.

Link here.