Wednesday, December 19, 2018

The First Skarston Well With Huge Jump In Production; Not Re-Fracked -- December 19, 2018

For the Skarston wells, see these two posts:
There is a ninth Skarston well, the oldest Skarston well:
  • 21664, 3,235, Equinor, Skarston 1-12 1H, 33-053-03818, Banks, t9/12; cum 317K 10/18; this well, according to available data, suggests that it has never been re-fracked.
Recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-201831400937923380933575591011
BAKKEN9-201830430543873488861061531852
BAKKEN8-20182444464464333677356350727
BAKKEN7-20183153905363378573766699178
BAKKEN6-2018306500640944059066845876
BAKKEN5-2018284677479639464067376736
BAKKEN4-20182053645069328867616097317
BAKKEN3-2018008260000
BAKKEN2-201824101669700694734257308032037
BAKKEN1-20181995159597578529831273981064
BAKKEN12-20173122251223931096353722458116096
BAKKEN11-20171897259141457117537158861025
BAKKEN10-20170000000
BAKKEN9-20170000000
BAKKEN8-20170000000

The Bakken Never Quits -- Another Amazing Story -- December 19, 2018

Updates

Later, 8:59 p.m. CT: see first comment. Don't forget, the Whitman 3-34H was originally drilled short due to pressure issues, and wasn't stimulated to begin with. Fascinating stories. Absolutely fascinating. I am absolutely amazed how good these roughnecks/geologists are -- how they prevented a blowout -- had there been an aggressive driller or an aggressive project manager .... the story could have been much different. And not necessarily a good story.

Original Post 

The CLR Whitman wells in Oakdale were early wells in the Bakken and very, very good wells. They have been posted numerous times. They are tracked here (to some extent). It's interesting to read about #20210 at that link.

The Whitman wells always intrigued me. When they were first drilled, CLR mentioned them often. Of the two wells running south, one was huge, producing 1 million bbls; whereas the other one was lousy (open-hole frack/unfracked). I was always curious when CLR would go back and re-frack the that well (#20212). Well, now they have and the results are amazing (and consistent with what one expected of the Whiman wells).

For newbies: Bakken wells will produce for 35 years. During that time they will have work over rigs; undergo mini-refracks; major refracks; and, impacted by fracking of neighboring wells.

Here's another example (but be sure to read the linked post first to bring yourself up to speed regarding "20210").

The well:
  • 20210, 803, CLR, Whitman 2-34H, 33-025-01259, middle Bakken; Oakdale, t9/11; cum 1.6229 million bbls 10/18:
Recent production; FracFocus has no data to suggest this well was re-fracked --
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-2018311215812190398713439118871133
BAKKEN9-2018301399914197683515432140361011
BAKKEN8-2018420751375123120731580443
BAKKEN7-20180000000
BAKKEN6-20180000000
BAKKEN5-20180000000
BAKKEN4-20180000000
BAKKEN3-2018002210000
BAKKEN2-20180000000
BAKKEN1-20180000000
BAKKEN12-201720019000
BAKKEN11-2017322021100
BAKKEN10-201732380100
BAKKEN9-20171638293858232480047030
BAKKEN8-2017319112914342810829105900

However, it's neighbor well was re-fracked. The well:
  • 20212, 482, CLR, Whitman 3-34H, 33-025-01261, Three Forks, Oakdale, t9/11; cum 260K 10/18; again, an incredible well for the cost of a re-frack; completion data: 1,008; t10/17; cum 61 stages; 14.5 million lbs sand;
Recent production, re-fracked:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20183137074369921081339302356113272
BAKKEN9-20183036826366251433138670340104265
BAKKEN8-2018447314441237846213785786
BAKKEN7-20181676784403
BAKKEN6-2018111380000
BAKKEN5-2018004030000
BAKKEN4-20181632393127473246523760
BAKKEN3-201819548656317564317413950
BAKKEN2-20182553105088595444542610
BAKKEN1-201831105131072518698937864150
BAKKEN12-2017312190321790484124087238390
BAKKEN11-201730194521980953791966718479968
BAKKEN10-201721121501140168471354971916268

By the way, #20212 is a Three Forks well:


Full production is here: link here.

One Bit Of Good News: The Number Of North Dakota Rigs Back To 68 -- December 19, 2018

Gasoline demand (link here), best news all day:


************************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs:

$48.1712/19/201812/19/201712/19/201612/19/201512/19/2014
Active Rigs68544164182

Five new permits:
  • Operators: Whiting (4); Zavanna
  • Fields: Sanish (Mountrail); Patent Gate (McKenzie)
  • Comments: Whiting has permits for a four-well Domaskin pad in section 20-154-92;
One producing well (DUC) reported as completed:
  • 26280, 463, Bruin, Fort Berthold 147-94-1B-12-4H, McGregory Buttes, t11/18; cum --

The Market, Energy, And Political Page, Part 4, T+44 -- December 19, 2018

Europe: Over at the sidebar, a link to "the big stories." From there, "Europe at a tipping point." Were the "yellow vests" the beginning of the end?

New England: Massachusetts lifts moratorium on National Grid gas hookups: The move could boost projects that have been stalled for months, but regulators are imposing some restrictions on the utility. Don't expect the floodgates to open anytime soon.

Facebook: What’s Facebook worth to you? About a thousand bucks, according to a new study from scholars at Tufts University and three other schools that asked people how much it would cost to get them to quit the social media network.

It's Official -- A Silurian Well Drilled In 1981 Produced One Million Bbls Of Oil -- 37 Years Of Production

But as soon as it hit one million bbls it was abandoned.

Hit the one-million-bbl milestone:
  • 7571, AB/482, Hess, Reitsch NCT-2 4, Blue Buttes, a Silurian well, t4/81; cum 1.0062 million bbls 7/17; 
Most recent production:
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
SILURIAN10-20180000000
SILURIAN9-20180000000
SILURIAN8-20180000000
SILURIAN7-20180000000
SILURIAN6-20180000000
SILURIAN5-20180000000
SILURIAN4-20180000000
SILURIAN3-20180000000
SILURIAN2-20180000000
SILURIAN1-20180000000
SILURIAN12-20170000000
SILURIAN11-20170000000
SILURIAN10-20170000000
SILURIAN9-2017002230000
SILURIAN8-20170000000
SILURIAN7-2017132871773995525520
SILURIAN6-2017305997713673110211020


The scout ticket:

Case Study -- Bakken Well -- Bruin -- Fort Berthold -- McGregory Buttes -- #20879

This page won't be updated. See this note for background. This is what makes unconventional drilling / shale oil / tight oil so exciting.

As I've mentioned many times before, over the course of a Bakken well's lifetime -- 35 years -- the well will see work-over rigs; will undergo mini-re-fracks; and, major re-fracks. Existing wells will be impacted by neighboring wells. The wells will not follow a simple/conventional "depletion" rate curve.

Here's another example.
I followed this well for quite awhile some time and then removed it from the list of wells that needed to be followed.

The well:
  • 20879, 2,709, Bruin/HRC, Fort Berthold 147-94-1A-12-2H, McGregory Buttes, t1/14; cum 486K 10/18; back off-line 9/18;
I quit following this well back in 2014 after the successful frack. Since then, it has been an outstanding well, with the typical Bakken decline.

Now I see that this well is back off line. Full production profile here.

There is a lot of activity in this area, as one can see in the graphic below.


Other wells of interest in the graphic:
  • 32503, off line as of 10/18; t12/16; cum 295K 9/18;
  • 32505, production jump form 3,000 bbls/month (9/18) to 7,000 bbls/month (10/18) but it looks like it might have been off-line much of 8/18 and 9/18; and now back on line for the full month; t12/16; cum 249K 10/18;
  • 30680, 823, Bruin, Fort Berthold 147-94-1A-12-9H, McGregory Buttes, t8/15; cum 348K 8/18;

The Slawson Rebel, Bandit, Snakeeyes Wells In Big Bend / Van Hook

From an earlier post:
  • October 13, 2018: #33701; coming back on line after neighboring well fracked; see this post;
The graphic:


The wells:
  • 19665, 1,126, Slawson, Bandit 2-29H, Van Hook, t2/11; cum 317K 4/19; production profile unremarkable;
  • 25317, 329, Slawson, Bandit 3-29H, Van Hook, t7/13; cum 162K 4/19; production profile unremarkable; a fairly mediocre well from the very beginning;
  • 17459, 403, Slawson, Bandit 1-29H, Van Hook, t5/09; cum 192K 4/19; there was a noticeable jump in production in 10/17, going from 900 bbls/month to 4,000 bbls/month; otherwise fairly unremarkable;

  • 29616, 1,272, Slawson, Rebel Federal 1-32-8H, Big Bend, t9/18; cum 68K 4/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20183134513345461976222758655612313
BAKKEN9-2018292165821035133321438798710912
  • 29617, 2,381, Slawson, Rebel Federal 7-32-8TFH, Big Bend, t8/18; cum 226K 4/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20182724809252183424815858143811608
BAKKEN9-2018285434253728626113517711028992
BAKKEN8-20181725843253943129516797013817
  • 29621, 2,548, Slawson, Lunker Federal 1SLH, Big Bend, t10/17; cum 253K 4/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-20183125527252691976217078247911691
BAKKEN9-20189419434182777280202308
BAKKEN8-20180000000
BAKKEN7-20180000000
BAKKEN6-20180000000
BAKKEN5-2018102480500
BAKKEN4-20182014691150506128988553492872
BAKKEN3-2018292403924189996116262100423489
BAKKEN2-20182626957272411071518796139201847
BAKKEN1-2018252395923700106721646859027870
BAKKEN12-201712677671912396445973674
BAKKEN11-201710353237022383232101893
BAKKEN10-201718789264533860524804402
  • 33701, 754, Slawson, Snakeeyes 4-29-20H, Big Bend, t10/17; cum 270K 4/19;
PoolDateDaysBBLS OilRunsBBLS WaterMCF ProdMCF SoldVent/Flare
BAKKEN10-201831198961992316940959115375759
BAKKEN9-201830240012375716042129429958242
BAKKEN8-201842800232815721423101489
BAKKEN7-20180000000
BAKKEN6-20180000000
BAKKEN5-2018132520500
BAKKEN4-20182216606168046128820343441970
BAKKEN3-201830223012253599611075755342684
BAKKEN2-201826209172100910715102977149770
BAKKEN1-2018312905228827141201397234737234
BAKKEN12-20173139811401881562319006127313359
BAKKEN11-20176342829471475163801237
BAKKEN10-2017824301922012520884

Weekly Petroleum Report -- EIA -- Flat; Unremarkable Report; WTI After Report Released -- Up $1.00 To $47.61

Updates

Later, 8:52 p.m. Central Time: see first comment -- from a most knowledgeable reader on this subject -- I had "blown" this off -- not given it much thought (for various reasons) but the reader puts it in perspective and notes it is more important than I realized. From the reader:
The 4.237 million barrel drop in distillates inventories is worth mentioning, especially in light of low coal & gas supplies The drop in distillates was primarily driven by a 417,000 barrels per day increase to 4,886,000 barrels per day in product supplied, the 2nd highest on record, topped only by January 31 2003, which I would read as heat oil demand
That now puts our distillate (heat oil) supplies 11% below the 5 year average going into the gut of winter, & might strain another fuel switching option, should the weather get cold enough to need it.
In other words, as long as we have a warm winter, we might be okay --- but if we have a cold snap, it could get very interesting, very fast
Original Post

Link here.
  • US crude oil inventories: decreased by 0.5 million bbls
  • US crude oil inventory: 441.5 million bbls; 7% above five-year average for this time of the year
  • refiners working at 95.4% capacity; a bit on the slightly low side
  • gasoline / distillate fuel production: no significant change
  • for the first time in a long time, jet fuel supplied decreased; was down 5.8% compared with same four-week period last year
Time to re-balance:
Week
Date
Change w-o-w
In Storage
Weeks to RB to 350 Million Bbls
Week 0
November 21, 2018
4.9
446.90
N/A
Week 1
November 28, 2018
3.6
450.50
N/A
Week 2
December 6, 2018
-7.3
443.20
N/A
Week 3
December 12, 2018
-1.2
442.00
Never
Week 4
December 19, 2018
-0.5
441.50
Never at this rate

Around The Bakken -- December 19, 2018

Marathon's Connolly 31-14H, #16187, in Bailey field, back on status after being off line since 5/17;

A million-bbl EOG Austin well, 21-28H, #17227, short lateral went off line 7/18; no neighboring activity noted; nothing in the sundry forms;

Slawson Whitmore wells in Parshall oil field recently fracked, #34921 and #34922. Not sure which way they are running, but based on name and fact that another Whitmore well is off line, it suggests the wells are running north; sited in an unusual location if that's accurate; #17303, a Whitmore well to the north, off-line; two EOG Austin wells (#25839, #25840) in the same area are also off line. Also note this incredible Slawson Whitmore well, drilled in 2008, that went off line 7/18:
  • 17354, 2,205, Slawson, Whitmore 1-7H, Parshall, short lateral, t10/108; cum 656K 10/18;
Remains off line; see this post.
  • 17318, 483, MRO, Clive Pelton 34-23H, Bailey, t8/08; cum 178K 5/18; taken off-line mid-4/18;
After nice jump in production due to neighboring re-frack, this well is back off line:
  • 17345, 902, Newfield, Wisness 1-4H, Westberg, t3/09; cum 428K 10/18; taken off line for less than a month, off and on prior to the jump in production/
Back on line; nice jump in production:
  • 17319, 329, BR, CCU Audubon 41-27H, Corral Creek, t12/08; cum 282K 10/18; FracFocus, no re-frack; recent frack:
    • 29068, 73, BR, CCU Boxcar 34-22TFH, Corral Creek, t3/18; cum 112K 9/18; [#17319]
17319:
BAKKEN9-201830625267582683294628720
BAKKEN8-201829514845983746291828460
BAKKEN7-201822337933603031155314980
BAKKEN6-20180000000
BAKKEN5-20180000000
BAKKEN4-20180000000
BAKKEN3-201814800200
BAKKEN2-20180000000
BAKKEN1-201842502320100
BAKKEN12-20170000000
BAKKEN11-20174190465301171070
BAKKEN10-20173114371375260109810210
BAKKEN9-20173013201132244114210680