Friday, May 31, 2019

Allied Forces Take Out Storage Tanks In Syria To Enforce Oil Embargo -- May 31, 2019

A "war" we don't hear much about:
  • May 31, 2019, allied aircraft take out storage tankers, oilprice.
  • May 3, 2019, Syria scrambling, AP News.  
  • April 25, 2019, Damascus, misery, Bloomberg.
  • Back on March 22, 2019, another incident in which oil to Syria was turned back; in The Wall Street Journal.
I'm sure Iran is watching.

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"Fed" Watch

Reminder: when the China trade war began, there were stories that as bad as this would be for the US, it would be worse for the Chinese. Some suggested the China-US trade war would end when Chinese bankers started jumping out of windows. Hold that thought.

Now, from zerohedge comes this: US banks and the recession panic.
As we await for Goldman to throw in the towel and admit its forecast of one rate hike in 2020 (and no cuts in 2019), was overly... optimistic, moments ago Barclays had a "hold my beer" moment, and just hours after JPMorgan changed its forecast, and as a result of an economic slowdown resulting from the escalating trade war now expects 2 rate cuts in 2019, Barclays has one-upped the largest US bank, and moments ago revised its FOMC forecast, now expecting 3 rate cuts in 2019. 
Now, while some may debate whether a curve inversion begins the clock on an upcoming recession, one things is undisputable (sic): while many analysts will caution that it is the Fed's rate hikes that ultimately catalyze the next recession and that every Fed tightening ends with a financial "event", the truth is that there is one step missing from this analysis, and it may come as a surprise to many that the last three recessions all took place with 3 months of the first rate cut after a hiking cycle!

Conclusion: the US will enter a recession somewhere around January, 2020.

If so, it will be one of the shortest recessions on record.

Having said that, we're back to the "chicken and egg" problem/question. How does a rate cut "catalyze" a recession. My hunch is the writer has that all wrong. My hunch is that by the time the Fed gets around to a rate cut they are too late: they see the recession coming, react too late, and by the time they make the rate cut, the recession is already in motion.

By the way, if the Chinese trade war does not end soon (like by the end of June), it will be a very, very bad Christmas for US retailers in 2019. US retailers are making their Chinese buying decisions by the end of June, perhaps by the end of July at the latest. US retailers go to trade shows to find out what's hot, to make their bets on what to order early in the summer. The Chinese need time to make the products, and then time to ship the products in time for Christmas. We are now down to less than six months when these Chinese products need to be on US store shelves.

********************************
The EU

As "bad" as it might be in the US regarding a "Fed" rate cut, the Europeans have an even bigger problem. Europe has no more arrows in their quiver.

From The Wall Street Journal:
For five years, European nations have been trying to jump-start their ailing economies with what was supposed to be a radical, short-term remedy—negative interest rates.
Instead, central banks haven’t been able to wean their economies off them.
Increasingly, they appear to be a permanent feature of the landscape.
No major bank that introduced negative rates during Europe’s debt crisis has turned main policy rates positive again.
“Overall, we are on a painkiller,” said Tamaz Georgadze, chief executive of Raisin GmbH in Berlin, which provides a platform for consumers and businesses to deposit through 77 banks in 25 countries, “and it’s very hard to get off it.”

Wow, look at Switzerland -- I never would have expected that. 

WTI Plummets; Trades Below $54; Twelve New Permits In North Dakota -- May 31, 2019

Newbies: note the number of active rigs, 64, which seems about right in North Dakota when WTI ranges between $55 and $65. Note how few active rigs there were in 2016 -- that was during the "trillion-dollar mistake" by the Saudis when they tried to crush US shale by opening their spigots.

More important than the number of active rigs is the number of wells not producing for operational reasons. As of the the most recent Director's Cut, the March, 2019, data:
  • DUCs: 968, up 74 from last report
  • inactive: 1,697, up 30 from last report
  • total: 2,665 (up from 2,561 last month; this represents about 1,000 more wells than will be drilled this calendar year; 2,561 is about what North Dakota will complete every three years)
Active rigs:

$53.505/31/201905/31/201805/31/201705/31/201605/31/2015
Active Rigs6461482880

Twelve new permits:
  • Operators: Hess (6); RimRock (6)
  • Fields: Alkali Creek (Mountrail); Heart Butte (Dunn)
  • Comments:
    • RimRock has permits for a 6-well Skunk Creek pad in lot 2/section 7-148-92;
    • Hess has permits for a 6-well EN-Sorenson B pad in section 35-155-94, Alkali Creek;
One well did come of the confidential list today:
  • 35242, SI/NC, WPX, Badlands 5-32-29HT, Heart Butte, no production data,
Five permits renewed:
  • Slawson: five Gunslinger Federal permits, all in McKenzie County

A Note To The Readers -- May 31, 2019

Disclaimer: I remain inappropriately exuberant about the Bakken. I love Big Oil and I love the independents. I see the world through oil-covered glasses. I love to blog. I do troll. I've talked about that before. I am occasionally (probably too often) snarky. After the fact I feel badly and often apologize. It's hard for me to "suffer fools."  I "love" Trump. I think I "get him." It's my opinion that his adversaries, for the most part, do not "get him." I agree with Jon Voigt regarding Trump. I'm among the older, white, male generation who are stereotyped -- that the world has passed them by -- or however the millennials and the NY Times phrase it. That's fine. I'm pretty content.

I have no "bucket list." I used to live one day at a time. I now live one hour at a time. Seriously. When my wife tells me the schedule for the weekend on Thursday, I tune her out. I'm only concerned about the schedule for Thursday night. Calendars? Instead of weekly calendars, I have "what's happening now?" calendars.

My dad at age 92 years of age said he never bought any green bananas. I don't buy green bananas and I don't buy ice cubes. I make ice cubes when I need them. My only goal now is to live long enough to make sure Sophia has a driver to get her wherever she needs to be. That's about ten more years. I've become an Uber driver without the app or the pay. 

A bucket list sounds like work and when I retired, I decided never to work again. Having said that, I never considered my 30 years and one day in the USAF "work." I went into the office (or the tent, or the hardened shelter, or the Tab-V) seven days a week, except when I had a headquarters job, and never considered it work. One exception: working the emergency room. Wow, talk about an experience. Being the only physician in a busy ER overseas ... in an American hospital ... in Turkey.

A digression: I just finished reading Washington's Crossing by David Hackett Fischer, c. 2006.  Explains a lot why the US military is as good as it is.

Mike Flynn, good, bad, or indifferent, was railroaded. And I say that, even though I probably would not have liked him and would not have wanted to serve under him (grammar?).

The note: A huge "thank you" to those who read the blog and another huge "thank you" to those who write.

I sometimes feel guilty that I don't provide a full and appropriate response to those who send  in comments to posts or send me e-mail notes. I'm not always able to respond as much as I would like due to family commitments. Social media is such that if one does not respond immediately, it seems too late to respond later.

Now, about those family commitments. Almost all of them involve driving the three granddaughters somewhere. Some of the trips are routine, scheduled, and daily, e.g., Sophia back and forth to TutorTime -- one of my favorite activities. Other scheduled trips are taking Arianna to water polo two or three nights a week. [By the way, Walt Disney found time to drive his two teenage daughters to high school even when he was "breaking out" into the "big time." I'm in good company.]

The unscheduled trips are pop-ups. For example, I thought I was "free" today. Already, Olivia has three trips for me that are "pop-ups."

But, wow, talk about triply blessed. Arianna, the thinker, knows something about everything and I'm always surprised by what she comes up with. I think as a sophomore she knows more academically than I did when I graduated from high school. Certainly in writing, history, and the social sciences that would be true.

Olivia, the student-athlete. No one in the family "takes her on." She is in a world of her own and most of us just try to avoid being knocked out of our own orbit by her energy.

Finally, Sophia, age 4 (fifth birthday in a month or so): she could be the cleverest of the three. We'll see. She is certainly the most empathetic.

***********************
NBA

I missed the game last night. I was told the first game was this weekend. Toronto won. Next game Sunday.

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PGA

And it continues. Phil Mickelson, holy mackerel, drops 82 spots; played seven over today, is +5 for the tournament, tied at 105, finished for the day and finished for the tournament. He will miss the cut. Tiger Woods bogied the first hole, is now one under for the tournament. The cut line will probably be one over, so it's likely he will be playing the weekend. The sponsors and the advertisers are counting on Woods being around.

********************
NASCAR

Not NASCAR but "indy" racing comes to the Texas Motor Speedway June 8, 2019. I know I won't go, but I can dream.

$59 for two tickets -- are being advertised on the radio.

I could take Sophia. The other two granddaughters will be out of town.

Yes, I'm going to do it. $10-tickets along the track. I need to get hearing protection for Sophia and me.

The Daily Note

Polling: Real Clear Politics 

************************************
115th US Congress
Second 100 Days
Days 151 - 200


July 19, 2019, T+49: new bestseller --


July 18, 2019, T+48: wow, Ill-Hand Omar has gone off the deep end, comparing present-day Israel with Nazi Germany. This will not play well outside of her neighborhood. And Ill-Hand is now the face of the Democratic Party in the US House. If not, name another face we see daily from the US House. Trey Gowdy: the US House is irrelevant.


July 17, 2019, T+47: Congressional Dems have ceded control to four idiots. Based on what I read in mainstream media, only Pelosi is standing up to them. And she's not getting much support. Huge referendum on Ill-Hand Omar and Occasional-Cortex; this was not a vote about Trump:


July 16, 2019, T+46: polls starting to show Biden, Bernie, Pocahontas, Harris in a statistical 4-way tie in early-primary states. Three words: circular firing squad. Two words: brokered convention. It's hard to believe Biden lost his overwhelming lead this quickly. I thought it might take another month or so. Or another debate. Beto? 0.0% in New Hampshire. Buttigieg? 1.0%. It appears we have our Final Four.

July 15, 2019, T+45: entire US House now supporting the ultra-left libs. Pretty funny how Trump does this. Biden slips below 30% for first time in poll commissioned by The Hill. Buttigieg has crashed and burned: "Buttigieg, who ranked as high as third place in one earlier poll, slipped to sixth place, garnering just 1 percent of support." I guess folks were concerned about his First Lady.

July 14, 2019, T+44: the increasing animosity among the far left Democrats and the simply left Democrats suggests to me that there is growing realization that they will lose to Trump. They are becoming frantic. 

July 13, 2019, T+43: it's very possible Bernie could run as an independent in the 2020 election. Not likely, but an even bigger scare for the Democrat nominee: more than one "Democrat" might run as independents. Could one add Tom Steyer to that list? There is talk that Howard Schultz could run as an independent. 

July 12, 2019, T+42, most recent poll --
  • Biden: significant drop; now at 26.8%
  • Harris: stays at 15% but drops to fourth place
  • Bernie: tied for second place after recovering a bit to 15.2%
  • Pocahontas: tied for second with crazy Bernie, at 15.2%
  • Buttigieg: another flash in the pan, stays at 5.3%
  • Beto: drops another 0.5%; now at 2.2%; he's done; stick a fork in him

July 11, 2019, T+41: huge win for Trump (won't be reported in mainstream media) --
Trump scored a big win on Wednesday when the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals agreed to throw out a case that accused him of violating the Constitution through earnings from D.C. businesses including the Trump International Hotel.
The lawsuit, brought by the attorneys general of Maryland and Washington, D.C., claimed that earnings from the hotel and its related businesses violated prohibitions against receiving benefits from foreign governments, the U.S., or individual states. The Fourth Circuit declared that Maryland and D.C. lacked standing to bring the case in the first place, and ordered the lower court to dismiss the complaint.
July 10, 2019, T+40: a reminder --
July 9, 2019, T+39: new polls out -- Biden holds on, extends --
  • Biden: recovers a bit; stops the slide; back to 27.3%
  • Harris: still in second but slips to 15%; insignificant except for the trend
  • Bernie: recovers a bit, at 14.9%
  • Pocahontas: 13.9% -- pretty much unchanged
  • Buttigieg: another flash in the pan, at 5.3%
  • Beto: 2.7%
  • Tom Steyer: announces: omg i hope he takes the Democrat nomination
July 8, 2019, T+38: Fox contributor -- Obama behind Kamala's surge in the polls. It may be Obama but I still think Hillary's war room is behind much of this. 

July 7, 2019, T+37: either the numbers have been updated -- this is stunning: Kamala Harris now out-polls crazy Bernie.
  • Biden: continues to drop; now at 26.0% -- after his apology tour begins
  • Harris: 15.2% and now out-polling Sanders
  • Bernie: 14.0%
  • Pocahontas: 13.8% -- pretty much unchanged
  • Buttigieg: another flash in the pan, at 5.2%
  • Beto: 2.4%
July 6, 2019, T+36: the 4th of July celebration on the Washington Mall was one of the best ever based on limited reporting; I am told that none of the major networks covered it in their nightly news reports. The general consensus is that the mainstream media and the Left conspired to denigrate the US flag and Independence Day (4th of July).

July 5, 2019, T+35: I haven't read the stories but the headlines suggest the July 4th celebrations in DC were a huge success. Making America great. Wow, Bernie plunging. Bernie is polling as low as 9% in the Economist, one of the most liberal mainstream publications out there:
  • Biden: continues to drop; now at 27.2%
  • Bernie: below 15%, at 14.7%
  • Pocahontas: unchanged at 13.5%
  • Harris: another big jump, to 14.7%; Americans are apparently ready for another Obama - this time a woman; something tells me the Hillary war room is in a panic; looks like it's about time for Harris to start moving to the center ("busing should be considered, but not mandatory")
  • Biggigieg: plunging; now at 5.3%
  • Beto: continues to drop; now at 2.3%; stick a fork in him; he's done; the Atlantic is looking more and more foolish;
July 4, 2019, T+34: California earthquake, 6.4; largest in decades. The Northridge earthquake was 6.6 in '94 -- 25 years ago.

July 3, 2019, T+33: quiet.

July 2, 2019, T+32: Latest Quinnipiac University poll shows Kamala Harris/Joe Biden in a virtual tie at 20/22 (percent). This has to scare Hillary -- more and more it looks like a brokered convention, but now, Hillary has a real competitor: Kamala Harris.

July 1, 2019, T+31: with the CNN poll out today showing Biden dropping significantly and Kamala Harris surging, it's time for the Hillary war room to jump into action. And it has. There are now stories that there is backlash against Kamala because she "hit Joe Biden below the belt in the first debate." Most recent polls, after the CNN poll came out:
  • Biden: drops below 30%, down to 29.9% which I think is the first time Biden has dropped below 30%
  • Bernie: unchanged, at 17%
  • Pocahontas: has indeed polled better; now at 13.4%
  • Harris: big jump from 7.0% to 10.0%
  • Biggigieg: continues to drop; now down to 6.0%
  • Beto: continues to drop; now below 3.0%; polling at 2.6%, about where Booker (2.3%) is
June 30, 2019, T+30: following first Democrat debates, first polls show:
  • Biden: drops slightly to 31.4% (from 32.1%)
  • Bernie: unchanged, at 16.9% (was 16.5%)
  • Pocahontas: everyone said she was the big winner; supposedly surged, but poll shows 12.6%, up from 12.4% earlier
  • Harris: up to 7.8% from 7.0%
  • Buttigieg: drops from 7.0% to 6.5%
  • Beto: the faux Hispanic drops back to 3.0% (from 3.3%); takes him campaign into northern Mexico to visit "turned away" immigrants; perhaps to show that Trump's efforts are working? Will promise them free health care if they can sneak in. He probably knows the shortcuts across the border; this is where he bicycled as a teenager
June 29, 2019, T+29: Trump: 1) tariffs on hold while Chinese - US negotiations resume; ii) China to import "huge" amounts of US agricultural products; iii) Trump to visit North Korea; iv) OPEC agrees to keep oil production cuts through early 2020.

June 28, 2019, T+28: G-20; Trump shines.

June 27, 2019, T+27: Biden? Mister Magoo?

June 26, 2019, T+26: first Democrat debate. Beto crashes and burns.

June 25, 2019, T+25: new polls, unchanged for most part. First Democrat debates will be held later this week.
  • Biden unchanged, from 32.0% to 32.1% -- below his peak after he announced
  • Bernie: from 15% back to where he was a week earlier, 16.5%
  • Pocahontas: continues to "surge"; from 11.9% to 12.4% now
  • Harris: bouncing around; back to 7.0%
  • Buttigieg: maintains, no change; at 7.0%
  • Beto: the faux Hispanic drops from 3.6% to 3.3%
June 24, 2019, T+24: quiet.

June 23, 2019, T+23: more irons in the fire of any peacetime president. I don't hear much in the mainstream media about the WH being disorganized, chaotic. The WH seems to be doing just fine, thank you.

June 22, 2019, T+22: the never-Trumpers appear to be unhappy that the president did not retaliate last week. Senator Schumer was worried Trump would "bumble" into war with Iran; then upset nothing happened. LOL. Pelosi said we live in "difficult" times; then went out for lunch. By the way, haven't heard much about impeachment lately. USA Today poll: Trump's popularity at all-time high.

President Donald Trump has scored his highest approval rating ever in a key national poll, but the media outlet that produces it, USA Today, never mentioned that fact in its write-up.
This week’s USA/Suffolk poll, taken from June 11 through June 15 and presented by RealClearPolitics along with other polling, had the president at a 49 percent approval rating versus 48 percent who disapprove.
The rating is a marked increase from the president’s lowest points in that particular poll. August 2018 saw Trump’s approval at 40 percent, and his score of 38 percent in February 2018 was the lowest rating of his presidency.
June 21, 2019, T+21: wow, wow, wow -- confirmed that the Hillary war room has taken out Joe Biden. ABC News/Good Morning America now reporting that Biden's son Hunter profiting on his dad's name while working in the Ukraine. The ABC hit on Hunter was incredibly harsh; clearly put together by the Hillary war room; there's no way a single reporter could have written this by himself/herself. When you listen to the actual audio it is clear that the Hillary war room put this out. Page 6 of the New York Times --- Hunter Biden fathers out-of-wedlock child, Arkansas woman ... clearly oppositional research developed by Hillary war room.

June 20, 2019, T+20: Circular firing squad -- Biden suffers flesh wound -- Pocahontas now seen as compromise candidate to Bernie / Biden. Iran claims to have shot down US drone; WTI surges. 9th Circuit Court supports Trump: he can defund Planned Parenthood.

June 19, 2019, T+19: new poll out. Hillary war room working. Biden falls:
  • Biden continues his slide; now down to 32.0%; after announcement, peaked at 33.4%
  • Bernie: wow -- from 16.5%, now at 15.0%; who was the beneficiary?
  • Pocahontas: held on; from 11.8% to 11.9%
  • Harris: bouncing around; back to 7.1%
  • Buttigieg: media favorite; was 7.8%; now back to 7.0%; Hillary war room stopped him cold;
  • Beto: following him only because he was interesting early on; the faux Hispanic at 3.6%
June 18, 2019, T+18: Acting Defense Secretary Shanahan won't go forward with confirmation, Trump says. Shanahan wants to spend more time with his family. March 28, 2019, article: When will Trump nominate a permanent defense secretary?

June 17, 2019, T+17: Trump supporters lining up / camping out 40 hours before his re-election announcement rally later this week. The impeachment rallies held around the country this past weekend were a complete bust -- at best, no more than twenty folks turned up at any rally.

June 16, 2019, T+16: see previous note. The debates are in Pocahontas' favor. Not only is Pocahontas debating the first night, she is not on stage with either Biden or Bernie. She should have a blow-out debate. However, one would bet the Nielsen ratings will be very, very low. Other than Pocahontas, no one is in the hunt -- but there could be a nice turnout based on curiosity: Flailing-arms Beto will be on stage with Pocahontas. The second night will be a face-off between Bernie and Biden but with ten folks on the stage each night, it's hard to imagine how much we will actually learn. Bernie and Biden will be on stage with Buttigieg and Harris. 

June 15, 2019, T+15: one has to assume the DNC political stories are originating in Hillary's war room. The one person that most wants a circular firing squad right now: Hillary. The only person that can prevent a brokered convention: Biden. Hillary is still betting on a brokered convention and diva ex machina. If one accepts that, this weekend's buzz that Pocahontas is surging makes sense. Several media outlets, including The New Yorker, suggest that Pocahontas could end up taking it all. So, let's check the most recent poll that has just come out:
  • Biden: down from 33.4% to 32.3%
  • Bernie: back to 16.5%; he had moved up slightly (to 17%) in the previous poll
  • Pocahontas: yes, she has surged; after tending down to 8.0%, takes a significant jump, up to 11.8%; if Biden and Bernie pretty much stayed the same, who gave up points to Pocahontas? It turns out it was Harris -- the big change
  • Harris: previous poll it was noted that she was really down, from almost 8% to nearly 7%; at 7.2%; but now, in the most recent poll, down to 6.3%, falling behind Buttgieg
  • Buttigieg: continues to move up; from 7.0% to 7.8%; most interestingly, The Economist is in line with the other polls, 7 - 8%;
  • Beto: trending down; now at 3.5% 
  • Bottom line: Kamala Harris has peaked; Hillary is now pushing Warren 
  • by the way, who was featured this past week as supporting Pocahontas? Occasional-Cortex
June 14, 2019, T+14: twenty candidates for first DNC debate, June 26 - 27, 2019, Miami, FL -- how many can you identify? It's hard to believe, but in addition to these twenty, there were another four who did not meet the threshold to be on stage for the first debate.



June 13, 2019, T+13: Iran torpedoes two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Price of WTI barely changes.

June 12, 2019, T+12:


June 11, 2019, T+11: it is now being reported that North Korea leader's slain brother (2017) was a CIA source. Anyone who isn't interested in the CIA - Obama "story" is wearing blinders. New Democratic presidential polls are out:
  • Biden: unchanged at 33.4% (down if anything)
  • Bernie: up slightly at 17%
  • Pocahontas: continues to trend down, now at 8.0% -- from 8.4% to 8.2% and now, down to 8.0%
  • Harris: really down, from almost 8% to nearly 7%; at 7.2%
  • Buttigieg: moving up, from 6.8%; surges to ... 7.0% -- this is after must media fawning, but again, throw out the most liberal Economist, and he's down to 25/4, he's down to 6.25%
  • Beto: unchanged at 3.8%
June 10, 2019, T+10: Financial markets continue to surge. Legislation passed by the US House subsequently passed by the US Senate:                                          . And we move on.

June 9, 2019, T+9: quiet.

June 8, 2019, T+8: Beto is introduced as "blank slate" in Iowa. We now know why Buttigieg is running for higher office: Buttigiege and her husband have $131,000 in student debt. LOL. 

June 7, 2019, T+7: Trump wins again. Mexico blinks. Mexico will work to stop the southern surge. Trump suspends tariffs on Mexican goods. 

June 6, 2019, T+6: new poll --
  • Biden: slips slightly to 33.5%
  • Sanders steady at 16.7%
  • Pocahontas (and this is the important one): drops from 8.4% to 8.2% (see this post)
  • Harris: up slightly from 7.3% to 7.8%
  • Buttigieg: from 6% to 6.8%
  • Beto: unchanged, from 3.9% to 3.8%
From Reuters, June 6, 2019: "Beto O'Rourke, a Democratic darling in 2018, struggling on national stage."
Beto O’Rourke, the former Texas congressman who nearly won a U.S. Senate seat last year in the reliably conservative state, is struggling in his White House bid and has lost support from young voters and minorities, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos national poll. 
The public opinion poll released on Thursday shows support for O’Rourke among registered Democratic and independent voters slipped by 3 percentage points since a May survey to 3% overall.
During the same time, other leading Democratic presidential candidates saw their support increase. The poll found 31% of Democratic and independent voters would vote for former Vice President Joe Biden, 14% supported U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and 9% backed U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.
U.S. Senator Kamala Harris of California and Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, netted 6% and 5%, respectively, making O’Rourke the sixth most popular choice in a field of 24 candidates. 
And it gets worse after that.

CNN viewership drops another 16%. Only 761,000 viewers in a country of more than 300 million. Meanwhile, Rachel Madcow is at a Trump-era low.

June 5, 2019, T+5: another win for Trump. The US House by itself cannot stop Trump's emergency funding of the wall. Congress is composed of two bodies: US House and US Senate. US House cannot act unilaterally. What a great country. Biden charged with plagiarism: stealing AOC's Nude Green Eel climate change plan.  Pelosi says she wants to see Trump in prison, not impeached. What movie is she watching? Two years of investigation by Hillary''s lawyers at $40 million: and no collusion found. Exactly what is Trump guilty of?

June 4, 2019, T+4: is it just me or has anyone else noticed that the mainstream media is not mentioning the ethnicity of Virginia shooter who killed twelve innocent people? Or even showing his face? Instead, the media is showing the faces of the victims, an eclectic mix. Most recent Democratic presidential poll:
  • Biden: at 35%, unchanged
  • Sanders: at 17%, up slightly
  • Pocahontas, drops, after admitting "she is not a person of color, not a member of any tribe" but says putting "Native American" on her resume did not help her get into Harvard; drops below 9%; now at 8.4%; donors will soon get tired of sending her money;
  • Kamala: drops to 7.3%
  • Buttigieg: flat at 6%; media says his polling numbers have surged; not seeing it;
  • Beto: moving up -- now at 3.9%
June 3, 2019, T+3:


Another win for President Trump. Trump announces, while in Great Britain, that Russia says it has removed most of its personnel from Venezuela. If true, Putin blinked. 
June 2, 2019, T+2: the tea leaves suggest Mueller did a half-ass job investigating the origin of the "dossier." Mueller failed to investigate the origin of the "dossier."  Considering who made up the "Mueller team" this should not be a bit surprising. Wow, wow, wow: impeachment is off the table. Pelosi has "always" said no. Last week Nadler said the American public won't accept impeachment. Now, today, Schiff agrees that impeachment efforts would fail -- blames it on the GOP but in fact, the majority of US House is all that is needed. The fact is that not enough Dems in the US House would have voted for impeachment. Mueller won't help the Dems. Have we finally seen the fifth stage of grief for the Dems in the US House?

June 1, 2019, T+1: : this will be longer than usual. This is quite interesting. Quite some time ago I wanted to do a post on the five stages of grief (denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance) and how it related to the Trump victory. It is quite interesting how events unfolded after the election results were in -- and how they seemed to follow the five stages of grief almost perfectly, beginning with denial. Remember the "meltdown" as the results started coming in. Television anchors could not believe it. And then through anger, bargaining, depression, but I never thought we would get to acceptance. But Rep Nadler's comments yesterday were very, very interesting. He seems to be stepping back from impeachment also, stating that impeachment is a political act, and the American public has not "yet" accepted impeachment as an option. He says that because Americans don't yet have all the facts, but that's another story. But the five stages of grief and the reaction to Trump being elected is very, very interesting. At least for me.
 
 ********************************************
115th US Congress
Second 100 Days 
Days 101 - 150 

WTI Will Test $55 Today -- No Wells Coming Off Confidential List Today -- May 31, 2019

Updates

Later, 12:02 p.m. CT: well, that didn't take long. WTI drops below $55, now trading at $54.89.
There's a bit of smoke and mirrors with OPEC production numbers. "They" (Reuters) say that OPEC's total production dropped in May to a record low (since 2015) -- even though Saudi's production increased. Reuters suggests that even though Saudi Arabia increased its production, it was not enough to offset the loss of production by Iran. Oh, give me a break. Does one really think that Iran has not found a way to off-load their "sanctioned" oil? LOL. But, Saudi Arabia production, all things being equal, starts to increase in the summer due to increased a/c demands, so who knows where we really stand? The bottom line is that regardless of how much the Mideast produces, America has a glut of light oil, can't get enough heavy oil from Canada (thank you, Mr Obama) and with new tariffs on Mexico, WTI is now below $55. Brent? Saudi needs $70-Brent. Brent is now trading for about $64. "OPEC basket" is trading for about $68.

Original Post

MRO denied: link here. See this post for background and graphics
North Dakota's Board of University and School Lands has denied a leasing extension to an oil company that has sought to develop several Badlands mineral tracts since 2013.
The panel of five state elected officials chaired by Gov. Doug Burgum voted unanimously at its meeting Thursday morning to deny Marathon Oil's request for another 360-day leasing extension. The company has faced rough terrain, mixed landownership and protected species requirements in siting a drill pad.
Not surprising. From Rigzone, independents dominate US energy markets.  Data points:
  • independents account for 83% of the nation's oil output and 90% of domestic natural gas / NGL production
  • independents accounted for almost $600 billion in 2018 or almost 3% of US GDP
Not over until it's over: Icahn sues OXY, threatens fight for sale. Link to Bloomberg. Activist investor Carl Icahn launched a lawsuit against Occidental Petroleum Corp. with the goal of potentially seeking board seats and a sale of the company.

Politics trumps common sense: EPA will issue rule allowing E15 gasoline to be sold nationwide year-round -- a huge nod to Iowa voters prior to the 2020 election. 

Big Oil probably won't be buying Permian stragglers any time soon. Bloomberg. Seems at odds with what we all thought six months ago. 
Exxon Mobil Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Chevron Corp. and ConocoPhillips are all on record saying they are wary of scooping up smaller rivals at a time when would-be sellers are demanding premium payouts and global crude prices are under pressure from ample supplies.
There is “not always alignment among buyers and sellers,” Exxon Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods said Wednesday. He suggested Permian drillers may have to be squeezed by weak prices for a bit longer before they dial down their expectations.
“That’s often the case in a market, particularly in one that’s in transition,” Woods said.
In other words: the vultures will continue to circle. 

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Back to the Bakken

No wells coming off the confidential list today (there was no November 31 six months ago).

Active rigs:

$55.365/31/201905/31/201805/31/201705/31/201605/31/2015
Active Rigs6561482880

RBN Energy: what's driving new propane dehydrogenation projects in North America?
Global demand for propylene is rising, but lighter crude slates at U.S. refineries and the use of more ethane at U.S. (and overseas) steam crackers has reduced propylene production from these plants. That has led to the development of more “on-purpose” propylene production facilities — especially propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants — in both the U.S. and Canada. More than 2 million metric tons/year of new PDH capacity has come online in North America since 2010, another 1.6 MMtpa is under development, and propane/propylene economics may well support still more capacity being built by the mid-2020s, maintaining the U.S. and Canada’s position as propylene and propylene-derivative exporters. Today, we begin a series looking at “on-purpose” production of propylene by PDH plants and what the development of these facilities will mean for U.S., Canadian and overseas markets.
Propylene — a particularly useful chemical building block — is used in downstream petrochemical processes to make a number of important materials, including polypropylene; acrylonitrile (used for acrylic fibers and coatings); propylene oxide (used for polyurethanes and other chemicals); oxo alcohols (used in PVC plasticizers and coatings); cumene (used to make epoxy resins and polycarbonate); and isopropyl alcohol (used as a solvent). About two-thirds of the propylene produced is used to make polypropylene — one of the best-selling plastics, second only to polyethylene. Polypropylene (or PP) is used extensively in automobiles and in the manufacture of packaging films, bottle caps, fiber ropes, as well as bicycle helmets and diapers. Global demand for propylene has been increasing at an average of about 5.2 MMtpa — a 3.6% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) — while North American demand is growing at a more modest average of 390,000 metric tons per year, for a CAGR of 2.2%. However, as we’ll get to in a moment, the traditional “co-product” sources of propylene supply have not kept up with demand — a situation that has led to the development of on-purpose propylene capacity on both sides of the U.S.-Canada border.
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The Physics Page

One of the best books I ever read on quantum theory was The Age of Entanglement: When Quantum Physics Was Born,  Louisa Gilder, c. 2008. The book was criticized by some readers because the "conversations" were fictional, made up by the author based on her reading of the source documents. Whatever. It appears that Jim Baggott, in 2011, provided a great, great follow-up to the book.

Baggott's book traces the history of development of quantum. I don't understand much of the science and none of the math but the historical vignettes of the various players are incredible.
I'm not sure it's the book I would recommend for newcomers to quantum, but for those who  have followed the subject for years, this is a great summary of how the science developed.