Friday, May 31, 2019

The Daily Note

Polling: Real Clear Politics 

115th US Congress
Second 100 Days
Days 151 - 200

July 20, 2019, T+50: this is becoming increasingly clear. The DNC convention will come down to a floor fight between Hillary and Michelle. Both have this figured out. None of the current 24 running for the Democratic presidential nomination will get the nod. With no one getting 50% plus one in the first vote, it becomes a brokered convention. Diva ex machina. The only question is whether the diva will be Hillary or Michelle. Both are clearly positioning themselves. Each will make sure they get some kind of headline each month between now and the DNC convention. As we approach the last four months before the convention, watch for Hillary and/or Michelle to start appearing on talk shows. If Michelle appears on a morning talk show, a later afternoon talk show, and then late night television, it tells me all I need to know about her announcement that she will never run for president. She doesn't have the "stomach" for a campaign against Trump, and she will fail miserably by all traditional standards, but those around her have twelve months to convince her to run.

July 19, 2019, T+49: new bestseller --

July 18, 2019, T+48: wow, Ill-Hand Omar has gone off the deep end, comparing present-day Israel with Nazi Germany. This will not play well outside of her neighborhood. And Ill-Hand is now the face of the Democratic Party in the US House. If not, name another face we see daily from the US House. Trey Gowdy: the US House is irrelevant.

July 17, 2019, T+47: Congressional Dems have ceded control to four idiots. Based on what I read in mainstream media, only Pelosi is standing up to them. And she's not getting much support. Huge referendum on Ill-Hand Omar and Occasional-Cortex; this was not a vote about Trump:

July 16, 2019, T+46: polls starting to show Biden, Bernie, Pocahontas, Harris in a statistical 4-way tie in early-primary states. Three words: circular firing squad. Two words: brokered convention. It's hard to believe Biden lost his overwhelming lead this quickly. I thought it might take another month or so. Or another debate. Beto? 0.0% in New Hampshire. Buttigieg? 1.0%. It appears we have our Final Four.

July 15, 2019, T+45: entire US House now supporting the ultra-left libs. Pretty funny how Trump does this. Biden slips below 30% for first time in poll commissioned by The Hill. Buttigieg has crashed and burned: "Buttigieg, who ranked as high as third place in one earlier poll, slipped to sixth place, garnering just 1 percent of support." I guess folks were concerned about his First Lady.

July 14, 2019, T+44: the increasing animosity among the far left Democrats and the simply left Democrats suggests to me that there is growing realization that they will lose to Trump. They are becoming frantic. 

July 13, 2019, T+43: it's very possible Bernie could run as an independent in the 2020 election. Not likely, but an even bigger scare for the Democrat nominee: more than one "Democrat" might run as independents. Could one add Tom Steyer to that list? There is talk that Howard Schultz could run as an independent. 

July 12, 2019, T+42, most recent poll --
  • Biden: significant drop; now at 26.8%
  • Harris: stays at 15% but drops to fourth place
  • Bernie: tied for second place after recovering a bit to 15.2%
  • Pocahontas: tied for second with crazy Bernie, at 15.2%
  • Buttigieg: another flash in the pan, stays at 5.3%
  • Beto: drops another 0.5%; now at 2.2%; he's done; stick a fork in him

July 11, 2019, T+41: huge win for Trump (won't be reported in mainstream media) --
Trump scored a big win on Wednesday when the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals agreed to throw out a case that accused him of violating the Constitution through earnings from D.C. businesses including the Trump International Hotel.
The lawsuit, brought by the attorneys general of Maryland and Washington, D.C., claimed that earnings from the hotel and its related businesses violated prohibitions against receiving benefits from foreign governments, the U.S., or individual states. The Fourth Circuit declared that Maryland and D.C. lacked standing to bring the case in the first place, and ordered the lower court to dismiss the complaint.
July 10, 2019, T+40: a reminder --
July 9, 2019, T+39: new polls out -- Biden holds on, extends --
  • Biden: recovers a bit; stops the slide; back to 27.3%
  • Harris: still in second but slips to 15%; insignificant except for the trend
  • Bernie: recovers a bit, at 14.9%
  • Pocahontas: 13.9% -- pretty much unchanged
  • Buttigieg: another flash in the pan, at 5.3%
  • Beto: 2.7%
  • Tom Steyer: announces: omg i hope he takes the Democrat nomination
July 8, 2019, T+38: Fox contributor -- Obama behind Kamala's surge in the polls. It may be Obama but I still think Hillary's war room is behind much of this. 

July 7, 2019, T+37: either the numbers have been updated -- this is stunning: Kamala Harris now out-polls crazy Bernie.
  • Biden: continues to drop; now at 26.0% -- after his apology tour begins
  • Harris: 15.2% and now out-polling Sanders
  • Bernie: 14.0%
  • Pocahontas: 13.8% -- pretty much unchanged
  • Buttigieg: another flash in the pan, at 5.2%
  • Beto: 2.4%
July 6, 2019, T+36: the 4th of July celebration on the Washington Mall was one of the best ever based on limited reporting; I am told that none of the major networks covered it in their nightly news reports. The general consensus is that the mainstream media and the Left conspired to denigrate the US flag and Independence Day (4th of July).

July 5, 2019, T+35: I haven't read the stories but the headlines suggest the July 4th celebrations in DC were a huge success. Making America great. Wow, Bernie plunging. Bernie is polling as low as 9% in the Economist, one of the most liberal mainstream publications out there:
  • Biden: continues to drop; now at 27.2%
  • Bernie: below 15%, at 14.7%
  • Pocahontas: unchanged at 13.5%
  • Harris: another big jump, to 14.7%; Americans are apparently ready for another Obama - this time a woman; something tells me the Hillary war room is in a panic; looks like it's about time for Harris to start moving to the center ("busing should be considered, but not mandatory")
  • Biggigieg: plunging; now at 5.3%
  • Beto: continues to drop; now at 2.3%; stick a fork in him; he's done; the Atlantic is looking more and more foolish;
July 4, 2019, T+34: California earthquake, 6.4; largest in decades. The Northridge earthquake was 6.6 in '94 -- 25 years ago.

July 3, 2019, T+33: quiet.

July 2, 2019, T+32: Latest Quinnipiac University poll shows Kamala Harris/Joe Biden in a virtual tie at 20/22 (percent). This has to scare Hillary -- more and more it looks like a brokered convention, but now, Hillary has a real competitor: Kamala Harris.

July 1, 2019, T+31: with the CNN poll out today showing Biden dropping significantly and Kamala Harris surging, it's time for the Hillary war room to jump into action. And it has. There are now stories that there is backlash against Kamala because she "hit Joe Biden below the belt in the first debate." Most recent polls, after the CNN poll came out:
  • Biden: drops below 30%, down to 29.9% which I think is the first time Biden has dropped below 30%
  • Bernie: unchanged, at 17%
  • Pocahontas: has indeed polled better; now at 13.4%
  • Harris: big jump from 7.0% to 10.0%
  • Biggigieg: continues to drop; now down to 6.0%
  • Beto: continues to drop; now below 3.0%; polling at 2.6%, about where Booker (2.3%) is
June 30, 2019, T+30: following first Democrat debates, first polls show:
  • Biden: drops slightly to 31.4% (from 32.1%)
  • Bernie: unchanged, at 16.9% (was 16.5%)
  • Pocahontas: everyone said she was the big winner; supposedly surged, but poll shows 12.6%, up from 12.4% earlier
  • Harris: up to 7.8% from 7.0%
  • Buttigieg: drops from 7.0% to 6.5%
  • Beto: the faux Hispanic drops back to 3.0% (from 3.3%); takes him campaign into northern Mexico to visit "turned away" immigrants; perhaps to show that Trump's efforts are working? Will promise them free health care if they can sneak in. He probably knows the shortcuts across the border; this is where he bicycled as a teenager
June 29, 2019, T+29: Trump: 1) tariffs on hold while Chinese - US negotiations resume; ii) China to import "huge" amounts of US agricultural products; iii) Trump to visit North Korea; iv) OPEC agrees to keep oil production cuts through early 2020.

June 28, 2019, T+28: G-20; Trump shines.

June 27, 2019, T+27: Biden? Mister Magoo?

June 26, 2019, T+26: first Democrat debate. Beto crashes and burns.

June 25, 2019, T+25: new polls, unchanged for most part. First Democrat debates will be held later this week.
  • Biden unchanged, from 32.0% to 32.1% -- below his peak after he announced
  • Bernie: from 15% back to where he was a week earlier, 16.5%
  • Pocahontas: continues to "surge"; from 11.9% to 12.4% now
  • Harris: bouncing around; back to 7.0%
  • Buttigieg: maintains, no change; at 7.0%
  • Beto: the faux Hispanic drops from 3.6% to 3.3%
June 24, 2019, T+24: quiet.

June 23, 2019, T+23: more irons in the fire of any peacetime president. I don't hear much in the mainstream media about the WH being disorganized, chaotic. The WH seems to be doing just fine, thank you.

June 22, 2019, T+22: the never-Trumpers appear to be unhappy that the president did not retaliate last week. Senator Schumer was worried Trump would "bumble" into war with Iran; then upset nothing happened. LOL. Pelosi said we live in "difficult" times; then went out for lunch. By the way, haven't heard much about impeachment lately. USA Today poll: Trump's popularity at all-time high.

President Donald Trump has scored his highest approval rating ever in a key national poll, but the media outlet that produces it, USA Today, never mentioned that fact in its write-up.
This week’s USA/Suffolk poll, taken from June 11 through June 15 and presented by RealClearPolitics along with other polling, had the president at a 49 percent approval rating versus 48 percent who disapprove.
The rating is a marked increase from the president’s lowest points in that particular poll. August 2018 saw Trump’s approval at 40 percent, and his score of 38 percent in February 2018 was the lowest rating of his presidency.
June 21, 2019, T+21: wow, wow, wow -- confirmed that the Hillary war room has taken out Joe Biden. ABC News/Good Morning America now reporting that Biden's son Hunter profiting on his dad's name while working in the Ukraine. The ABC hit on Hunter was incredibly harsh; clearly put together by the Hillary war room; there's no way a single reporter could have written this by himself/herself. When you listen to the actual audio it is clear that the Hillary war room put this out. Page 6 of the New York Times --- Hunter Biden fathers out-of-wedlock child, Arkansas woman ... clearly oppositional research developed by Hillary war room.

June 20, 2019, T+20: Circular firing squad -- Biden suffers flesh wound -- Pocahontas now seen as compromise candidate to Bernie / Biden. Iran claims to have shot down US drone; WTI surges. 9th Circuit Court supports Trump: he can defund Planned Parenthood.

June 19, 2019, T+19: new poll out. Hillary war room working. Biden falls:
  • Biden continues his slide; now down to 32.0%; after announcement, peaked at 33.4%
  • Bernie: wow -- from 16.5%, now at 15.0%; who was the beneficiary?
  • Pocahontas: held on; from 11.8% to 11.9%
  • Harris: bouncing around; back to 7.1%
  • Buttigieg: media favorite; was 7.8%; now back to 7.0%; Hillary war room stopped him cold;
  • Beto: following him only because he was interesting early on; the faux Hispanic at 3.6%
June 18, 2019, T+18: Acting Defense Secretary Shanahan won't go forward with confirmation, Trump says. Shanahan wants to spend more time with his family. March 28, 2019, article: When will Trump nominate a permanent defense secretary?

June 17, 2019, T+17: Trump supporters lining up / camping out 40 hours before his re-election announcement rally later this week. The impeachment rallies held around the country this past weekend were a complete bust -- at best, no more than twenty folks turned up at any rally.

June 16, 2019, T+16: see previous note. The debates are in Pocahontas' favor. Not only is Pocahontas debating the first night, she is not on stage with either Biden or Bernie. She should have a blow-out debate. However, one would bet the Nielsen ratings will be very, very low. Other than Pocahontas, no one is in the hunt -- but there could be a nice turnout based on curiosity: Flailing-arms Beto will be on stage with Pocahontas. The second night will be a face-off between Bernie and Biden but with ten folks on the stage each night, it's hard to imagine how much we will actually learn. Bernie and Biden will be on stage with Buttigieg and Harris. 

June 15, 2019, T+15: one has to assume the DNC political stories are originating in Hillary's war room. The one person that most wants a circular firing squad right now: Hillary. The only person that can prevent a brokered convention: Biden. Hillary is still betting on a brokered convention and diva ex machina. If one accepts that, this weekend's buzz that Pocahontas is surging makes sense. Several media outlets, including The New Yorker, suggest that Pocahontas could end up taking it all. So, let's check the most recent poll that has just come out:
  • Biden: down from 33.4% to 32.3%
  • Bernie: back to 16.5%; he had moved up slightly (to 17%) in the previous poll
  • Pocahontas: yes, she has surged; after tending down to 8.0%, takes a significant jump, up to 11.8%; if Biden and Bernie pretty much stayed the same, who gave up points to Pocahontas? It turns out it was Harris -- the big change
  • Harris: previous poll it was noted that she was really down, from almost 8% to nearly 7%; at 7.2%; but now, in the most recent poll, down to 6.3%, falling behind Buttgieg
  • Buttigieg: continues to move up; from 7.0% to 7.8%; most interestingly, The Economist is in line with the other polls, 7 - 8%;
  • Beto: trending down; now at 3.5% 
  • Bottom line: Kamala Harris has peaked; Hillary is now pushing Warren 
  • by the way, who was featured this past week as supporting Pocahontas? Occasional-Cortex
June 14, 2019, T+14: twenty candidates for first DNC debate, June 26 - 27, 2019, Miami, FL -- how many can you identify? It's hard to believe, but in addition to these twenty, there were another four who did not meet the threshold to be on stage for the first debate.

June 13, 2019, T+13: Iran torpedoes two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Price of WTI barely changes.

June 12, 2019, T+12:

June 11, 2019, T+11: it is now being reported that North Korea leader's slain brother (2017) was a CIA source. Anyone who isn't interested in the CIA - Obama "story" is wearing blinders. New Democratic presidential polls are out:
  • Biden: unchanged at 33.4% (down if anything)
  • Bernie: up slightly at 17%
  • Pocahontas: continues to trend down, now at 8.0% -- from 8.4% to 8.2% and now, down to 8.0%
  • Harris: really down, from almost 8% to nearly 7%; at 7.2%
  • Buttigieg: moving up, from 6.8%; surges to ... 7.0% -- this is after must media fawning, but again, throw out the most liberal Economist, and he's down to 25/4, he's down to 6.25%
  • Beto: unchanged at 3.8%
June 10, 2019, T+10: Financial markets continue to surge. Legislation passed by the US House subsequently passed by the US Senate:                                          . And we move on.

June 9, 2019, T+9: quiet.

June 8, 2019, T+8: Beto is introduced as "blank slate" in Iowa. We now know why Buttigieg is running for higher office: Buttigiege and her husband have $131,000 in student debt. LOL. 

June 7, 2019, T+7: Trump wins again. Mexico blinks. Mexico will work to stop the southern surge. Trump suspends tariffs on Mexican goods. 

June 6, 2019, T+6: new poll --
  • Biden: slips slightly to 33.5%
  • Sanders steady at 16.7%
  • Pocahontas (and this is the important one): drops from 8.4% to 8.2% (see this post)
  • Harris: up slightly from 7.3% to 7.8%
  • Buttigieg: from 6% to 6.8%
  • Beto: unchanged, from 3.9% to 3.8%
From Reuters, June 6, 2019: "Beto O'Rourke, a Democratic darling in 2018, struggling on national stage."
Beto O’Rourke, the former Texas congressman who nearly won a U.S. Senate seat last year in the reliably conservative state, is struggling in his White House bid and has lost support from young voters and minorities, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos national poll. 
The public opinion poll released on Thursday shows support for O’Rourke among registered Democratic and independent voters slipped by 3 percentage points since a May survey to 3% overall.
During the same time, other leading Democratic presidential candidates saw their support increase. The poll found 31% of Democratic and independent voters would vote for former Vice President Joe Biden, 14% supported U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and 9% backed U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.
U.S. Senator Kamala Harris of California and Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, netted 6% and 5%, respectively, making O’Rourke the sixth most popular choice in a field of 24 candidates. 
And it gets worse after that.

CNN viewership drops another 16%. Only 761,000 viewers in a country of more than 300 million. Meanwhile, Rachel Madcow is at a Trump-era low.

June 5, 2019, T+5: another win for Trump. The US House by itself cannot stop Trump's emergency funding of the wall. Congress is composed of two bodies: US House and US Senate. US House cannot act unilaterally. What a great country. Biden charged with plagiarism: stealing AOC's Nude Green Eel climate change plan.  Pelosi says she wants to see Trump in prison, not impeached. What movie is she watching? Two years of investigation by Hillary''s lawyers at $40 million: and no collusion found. Exactly what is Trump guilty of?

June 4, 2019, T+4: is it just me or has anyone else noticed that the mainstream media is not mentioning the ethnicity of Virginia shooter who killed twelve innocent people? Or even showing his face? Instead, the media is showing the faces of the victims, an eclectic mix. Most recent Democratic presidential poll:
  • Biden: at 35%, unchanged
  • Sanders: at 17%, up slightly
  • Pocahontas, drops, after admitting "she is not a person of color, not a member of any tribe" but says putting "Native American" on her resume did not help her get into Harvard; drops below 9%; now at 8.4%; donors will soon get tired of sending her money;
  • Kamala: drops to 7.3%
  • Buttigieg: flat at 6%; media says his polling numbers have surged; not seeing it;
  • Beto: moving up -- now at 3.9%
June 3, 2019, T+3:

Another win for President Trump. Trump announces, while in Great Britain, that Russia says it has removed most of its personnel from Venezuela. If true, Putin blinked. 
June 2, 2019, T+2: the tea leaves suggest Mueller did a half-ass job investigating the origin of the "dossier." Mueller failed to investigate the origin of the "dossier."  Considering who made up the "Mueller team" this should not be a bit surprising. Wow, wow, wow: impeachment is off the table. Pelosi has "always" said no. Last week Nadler said the American public won't accept impeachment. Now, today, Schiff agrees that impeachment efforts would fail -- blames it on the GOP but in fact, the majority of US House is all that is needed. The fact is that not enough Dems in the US House would have voted for impeachment. Mueller won't help the Dems. Have we finally seen the fifth stage of grief for the Dems in the US House?

June 1, 2019, T+1: : this will be longer than usual. This is quite interesting. Quite some time ago I wanted to do a post on the five stages of grief (denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and acceptance) and how it related to the Trump victory. It is quite interesting how events unfolded after the election results were in -- and how they seemed to follow the five stages of grief almost perfectly, beginning with denial. Remember the "meltdown" as the results started coming in. Television anchors could not believe it. And then through anger, bargaining, depression, but I never thought we would get to acceptance. But Rep Nadler's comments yesterday were very, very interesting. He seems to be stepping back from impeachment also, stating that impeachment is a political act, and the American public has not "yet" accepted impeachment as an option. He says that because Americans don't yet have all the facts, but that's another story. But the five stages of grief and the reaction to Trump being elected is very, very interesting. At least for me.
115th US Congress
Second 100 Days 
Days 101 - 150 

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