Tuesday, June 13, 2023

Poolside Notes -- Clearing Out The In-Box -- Part 2 -- June 13, 2023

Locator: 44931TECH.  

Another huge tech story today.

For newbies, this is a complicated story. I will come back to it later and explain what's going on, what it all means. 

It affects computer scientists, engineers, high-end developers. This does not affect you or me. As consumers or investors. But it's hugely interesting. Hugely entertaining. 

More later.

Link here to the story.

****************
Here's My Take -- Part One

This is the Apple Mac Pro.

It's been around forever. 

It's why Apple is the first $3-trillion company (market cap).

It's Apple's most powerful, most versatile computer. It's for an elite group of Apple developers. It's not for the rest of us.

It sells for over $7,000.

It is updated regularly, and then geeks take it for a ride, just to see how fast it really is. Generally it's compared to Intel chips, once the company that set the standard for chips and speed.

Here are the latest "speed" results. The contestants.

Two contestants (Intel vs Apple) each with two configurations:

In lane one: the highest-end Intel-based Mac Pro with a (holy mackerel look at this) 28-core Xeon W processor: cost? It starts at $12,999. Remember this is an Apple Mac Pro using an Intel-processor; two configurations:

  • single-core
  • multi-core

In lane two: the new Apple-chip Mac Pro, two configurations

  • single-core
  • multi-core

Results: 

  • first race, single core:
  • in lane one: INTEL MAC PRO speed, single core: 1,378 mph 
  • in lane two: APPLE MAC PRO speed, single core: 2,794 mph
  • first race, multi-core:
  • in lane two: INTEL MAC PRO speed, multi-core: 10,390 mph
  • in lane one: APPLE MAC PRO speed, multi-core: 21,453 mph

Again:

  • Intel best: 10,390 mph
  • Apple: 21,453 mph

Price:

  • Intel best: starts at $12,999
  • Apple: $6,999

In other words, buy the top-of-the line Intel-based Apple Mac Pro for twice the cost of the Apple M2 Mac Pro and get half the speed.

Wow.

But there is so much more. We'll talk about that later.

***********************
ARM

Poolside Notes -- Clearing Out The In-Box -- Part 1 -- June 13, 2023

Locator: 44930TECH. 

The big story today: AMD announces a new chip to take on Nvidia. And this was a huge story. Reuters reports it here.

After the introduction of the new chip, investors reacted:

NVDA joined the $1 trillion club today.

In a sidebar to a reader, my not-ready-for-prime-time comments:

This was the big tech story today.

“Everybody” was anticipating AMD’s new GPU chip which would compete with the leader in this area of AI technology.

Chip announced.

At close:

    NVDA up $15, up 4%.

    AMD down about 4%, down $5.

Numbers rounded.

So, what happened?

When Apple announces something, generally available immediately.

New AMD chip will be "sort of available" at the end of this year, 2023; won't be widely available until sometime in 2024.

That’s a year.

A year in chip development is a lifetime cycle for some chips. NVDA won’t be sitting still for one year, nor will AAPL.

In other words, too little too late? The “too little”:

The quotes reported in the press by AMD CEO sounded weak.

The chip will be marketed as an “accelerator,” according to AMD.

AMD has been seen as weak for quite some time; today’s stock market action suggested folks who understand this technology (I don’t understand this technology) see AMD as no threat to NVDA.
I have healthy positions in both AMD and NVDA but this tells me where to allocate NEW money when investing in this sector.

Disclaimer: this is not an investment site.  Do not make any investment, financial, job, career, travel, or relationship decisions based on what you read here or think you may have read here.

All my posts are done quickly: there will be content and typographical errors. If anything on any of my posts is important to you, go to the source. If/when I find typographical / content errors, I will correct them

Again, all my posts are done quickly. There will be typographical and content errors in all my posts. If any of my posts are important to you, go to the source.  

Director's Cut -- Data For April, 2023

Locator: 44929B.  

Link here.

Director's Cuts are tracked here. Disclaimer applies.

DUCs and wells off-line for operational reasons tracked here;

New all-time high natural gas production in April, 2023: 3,186,122 MCF/day

  • previous all-time high, 9/22: 3,179,517 MCF/day.

By the way, it looks like there is a typographical error with regard to gas production in the screenshot below from the above link.

One New Permit In North Dakota; The Bakken Overshadowed By Non-Eneregy News -- June 13, 2023

Locator: 44929B.  

The big story today: AMD announces a new chip to compete with Nvidia. To be discussed later.

Oh, yes, I almost forgot: first president ever to be criminally indicted. That also happened today. No mug shot. No fingerprints. [Later: I guess I was wrong. Apparently he was finger-printed. If so, why?] No video. Any proof anyone really showed up? Couldn't they have just done this using Zoom or FaceTime. I wonder if there's a "PrisonTime"version of "FaceTime"?

By the way, the judge can dismiss the case entirely. If she dismisses the case after a guilty verdict is reached, the defendant can appeal; if the judge dismisses the case any time before the jury returns a verdict, the case / the judge's action is not reviewable. It's over. Fact check me on that but I know I'm right. 100% sure. Okay, 95%. Okay, 80%.

The big story today:  AMD announces a new chip to take on Nvidia. 

More on that later. [Later: AMD: trillion-dollar hurdle. Link: https://www.wsj.com/articles/amds-superchips-face-a-trillion-dollar-hurdle-904fa5ad?mod=hp_minor_pos20.]

First ...

*********************************
Back to the Bakken

Ovintiv: completes its total exit from the Bakken. Sold all its Bakken assets to Grayson Mill.

Director's Cut released today. Will post as a stand-alone post.

Focus on Fracking: most recent edition, link here. The lede explains why diesel fuel is so cheap:

  • largest build in distillates supplies in 6 months after distillates exports fell to a 17 month low.

Active rigs: 35.

WTI: $69.22. Couldn't quite get back to $70 but at least it's trending in the right direction.

One new permit: 39973 --

  • Operator: Enerplus
  • Field: Moccasin Creek (Dunn County)
  • Comments: 
    • Enerplus has a permit for a London well, NWSW 8-147-93; Moccasin Creek, Dunn County; 
      • to be sited in said section 2393 FSL and 1076 FWL -- sort of an unusual location -- will need to look at the map to see why...

Three permits renewed:

  • Hunt Oil: three Smoky Butte permits, Smoky Butte oil field, Williams County.

A number of Bottineau Couunty wells (Hedges / Steinhaus) were transferred from 31 Operating, LLC, to MIMIR Energy, LLC. 

Inflation -- Temporary After All? June 13, 2023

Locator: 44928MKT. 

Temporary, after all? "S&P 500 futures gain as inflation levels slow to the lowest since early 2021." Depends on one's definition of "inflation" and one's definition of "temporary."

Link here.

The lower half of the chart:

Market surges:


Even UNP turned green, despite all the headwinds / headlines this past week.   

Computer Talk: CPUs And Cores -- IN PROGRESS -- June 13, 2023

Locator: 44927AAPL.  

Another huge tech story coming out after Apple's WWDC, June, 2023.

For newbies, this is a complicated story. It will be told in several parts.

It affects computer scientists, engineers, high-end developers. This does not affect you or me. As consumers or investors. But it's hugely interesting. Hugely entertaining. 

Part one.

Link here to part two.

****************
Here's My Take -- Part One

Before getting started, this is where posts like this are tracked.

Apple introduced some incredible hardware last week: desktops and laptops, and Tim Cook threw around a lot of tech-speak surrounding Apple's new M2 chips. He did not reference Apple's 3nm-M3 chip expected to debut next year, but when it does, there will be even more mention of CPUs and cores.

Later: surprise, surprise, surprise. Apple unveiled the M3 family for the MacPro laptop computers on October 30, 2030.

Years ago I sort of understood the "concept" of a CPU, ROM, and RAM, and that's about as far as I got, and then over time, I gradually lost the bubble. 

Now, cores, and I'm completely lost.

I'll provide links later.

All this "stuff" -- chips, CPUs, ROM, RAM, cores -- are virtual concepts as well as physical "things."  

I was familiar with motherboards on which chips sat -- in the old days, one could actually change out chips on the motherboards -- mostly for memory purposes. But there were "chips" for CPUs and RAM and ROM, and perhaps other "stuff" as well. I don't know.

Somewhere along the line, developers started putting all this "stuff" in one place, and called it SoC: system on a chip.

I sort of kept up, until Tim Cook started mentioning "cores." I don't recall Steve Jobs mentioning "cores." 

Steve Jobs: CPUs, RAM and ROM. 

No one understood the different CPUs -- they all had quirky names -- but everyone could follow RAM and ROM -- easy numbers -- "x" to the "nth' power -- 2, 4, 8, who do we appreciate 16, 32 and for the very rich, 64.

I'm not even going to address megabytes (MB) and gigabytes (GB).

Tim Cook: cores.

Links:

  • Bloomberg, May 14, 2023: Apple's M3
  • wccftech, June 11, 2023: Apple's M3.
  • HP, August 24, 2022: CPU cores -- how many do you need.
  • Tom's Hardware, June 17, 2022: what is a CPU core?
  • How-to-Geek, March 13, 2022: CPU basics. What are cores?
  • Make-Use-Of, November 26, 2021: what is a processor core?

And, of course, wiki does it best: link here. But be careful. Even the first line can be confusing. There's a difference between "a" processing unit and "the" central processing unit. 

So, let's go.

In the old days, the computer had one core which no one ever talked about or even mentioned. Maybe there wasn't even a "core" per se. All we talked about was the CPU, RAM and ROM.

The CPU is "the" computer. The keyboard, mouse, screen, speakers are not part of the CPU -- the keyboard, mouse, screen, speakers, microphone, speakers, etc. -- are used to interact with the CPU, or the computer. In a one-core computer, the CPU orchestrates / controls these "things" that allow us to interact with the CPU.

ROM was the firmware that could not be changed; it had the basic instructions for the computer when the "on" switch was flipped. I assume it was embedded in the CPU. It is part of the firmware.

RAM was the changeable, usable software that ran the programs on which you were working at the time. 

"Memory" was the "memory" in the background where stuff was stored until you or your computer needed it. [ROM and RAM are also "memory," but not "memory" like "memory."]

And that was it.

In my simple mind.

And then along came "cores."

Without mentioning the word "core," in the beginning, a "core" was the CPU processing information with its necessary ROM, RAM, and (very limited) "memory." One core. 

One core = one application at a time. Sort of, don't take that out of context.

So, if you wanted to multi-task, you couldn't. You might think you were multi-tasking but you weren't. With one core, your CPU sent information back to RAM / "memory" and retrieved new information from RAM / "memory" to perform a new application, like switching from writing a document to developing a spreadsheet to populating a database.

Back-and-forth, back-and-forth.

The back-and-forth problem was solved with multiple cores, first two cores, and then more.

Each core had its own bit of memory bank and a processing unit

So, now, two or more applications could be running simultaneously in the background, unaware of what each core was doing. The user, you, could switch between applications seemingly because the CPU -- the central processing unit -- coordinated all those cores, or better said, coordinated all those individual processing units on each core. The CPU didn't care about all the other "stuff" inside a given core. All the CPU had to do was coordinate what it used to coordinate (ROM, RAM, "memory") but now it had to coordinate the processing units of each of the cores. 

Break, break.

Another way to think about it: stovepipes. 

Remember the concept of stovepipes? Back in the 70's or 80's or thereabouts organizations and businesses and corporations had training sessions with their mid-level managers and "stovepipes" were all the rage, the buzzword. Each stovepipe was a different function in the organization. They were called stovepipes because each entity did its own thing, kept to itself, didn't care -- didn't even know, in some cases - if there were other stovepipes or other entities. Talk about a mess. Upper level management -- the CPU, as it were -- managed, integrated, whatever -- all the various stovepipes. I doubt much has changed.

The computer is a lot like that. Think of each "core" as a stovepipe doing its own thing (or, now, doing multiple things) but all the activities of each stovepipe or each "core" being coordinated, integrated, whatever by the central processing unit -- the CPU. 

So, that's all it is. 

But, wow, now it makes sense. 

From the Apple site, the new 15" M2 Macbook Air, two basic configurations, with the only difference (?) being 256GB SSD storage vs 5122GB SSD storage.

In the old days, the top line would have been simply "M2" or "M1" or "XBY678" but now the chips come in different flavors: different numbers of cores and different types of cores.

A week ago, this made no sense to me. I now understand it -- right, wrong, indifferent -- it's how I see it.

************************
So, How Far Have We Come With Cores?

Links:

The new 15-inch M2 MacBook Air:

  • an 8-core CPU and a 10-core GPU

The smaller, cheaper M2 MacBook Air:

  • 8-core CPU and 8-core GPU

With the M3 next year:

TSMC’s 3nm N3B architecture may enable Apple to bring major improvements without having to resort to increasing the core count, though we have no way of confirming this.
The exact configuration has not been shared, so we cannot comment on what other M3 variations to expect down the road. However, Gurman shared specifications of the M3 Pro, stating that one version was being tested with 12 CPU cores and 18 GPU cores, but this chipset will only be found in the pricier Macs. 

Think about that. Only two years ago Intel folks said we could get along just fine with one or two cores. Now, we're talking 12 + 18 = 30 cores in a personal laptop. 

Obviously more is better. But, really, how much does one need?

Well, actually, as much as you can afford. We'll talk about that later.

**********************
How Many Cores Are Needed?

How many cores does one need?

Back in 2020, Intel suggested:


My hunch: Apple would have had a different answer.

The 'Big Three' of U.S. LNG Look to Press Their Advantage, Push More Projects to FID -- RBN Energy -- June 13, 2023

Locator: 44926B.

RBN Energy: the "big three" of US LNG look too press their advantage, push more projects to FID. Archived.

Three new LNG export projects have reached a final investment decision (FID) in the past year or so — Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG, Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage III expansion, and, most recently, Sempra’s Port Arthur LNG. What do these projects have in common? They are all being developed by companies that are already exporting North American LNG.
These companies are arguably the “Big Three” of U.S. LNG, with Cheniere the reigning king, at least for now. Not only do they all have at least one operating terminal and at least one under construction, but all three have multiple pre-FID projects under development, including some that are decently close to FID. With their proven track records and deep balance sheets, being one of the big guys is a definite advantage when it comes to getting a project across the finish line. With a total of 43.5 MMtpa (5.8 Bcf/d) of capacity currently under construction and more than 100 MMtpa (13.4 Bcf/d) under development by these three, is there even room for anybody else?
In today’s blog, we look at the pre-FID projects under development by the Big Three, starting with Sempra.

Inflation: Appears To Have Been "Temporary" After All, Pre-Market -- Already Starting To Surge? WTI Moves Up; Two Wells Coming Off Confidential List -- June 13, 2023

Locator: 44925B.

Temporary, after all? "S&P 500 futures gain as inflation levels slow to the lowest since early 2021." Depends on one's definition of "inflation" and one's definition of "temporary."

Link here.


Must-read today
: RBN Energy below. It will be available for a few days before it goes behind a paywall.

The blog: wow, I just went over 45,000 stand-alone posts on the blog (plus I have no less than twelve other blogs, some public, some private). 

Tech: today I will have a stand-alone post on tech -- I finally figured out something -- I assume everyone else understands / understood the subject. I did not. I have a better feeling for this after studying a bit of this overnight. CPUs, GPUs, cores.

Next week, Monday: a reader, thank you, informed me that the markets would be closed for a federal holiday.

101 days of summer: day 17.

************************
Back to the Bakken

Active rigs: 38.

WTI: $68.61. Will move the oil sector today in a positive direction.

Wednesday, June 14, 2023: 31 for the month; 139 for the quarter, 394 for the year
39471, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Federal Kubik Trust 3-18-19H-143-95L,
39396, conf, Kraken, Wiseman 31-36-35-34 2H,
39215, conf, SOGC (Sinclair), Grasslands Federal 14-15-3H,

Tuesday, June 13, 2023: 28 for the month; 136 for the quarter, 391 for the year
39301, conf, CLR, Skachenko Federal 9-31H,
38925, conf, Lime Rock Resources, Scott 4-7-6H-143-95L,

RBN Energy: the "big three" of US LNG look too press their advantage, push more projects to FID. Archived.

Three new LNG export projects have reached a final investment decision (FID) in the past year or so — Venture Global’s Plaquemines LNG, Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage III expansion, and, most recently, Sempra’s Port Arthur LNG. What do these projects have in common? They are all being developed by companies that are already exporting North American LNG.
These companies are arguably the “Big Three” of U.S. LNG, with Cheniere the reigning king, at least for now. Not only do they all have at least one operating terminal and at least one under construction, but all three have multiple pre-FID projects under development, including some that are decently close to FID. With their proven track records and deep balance sheets, being one of the big guys is a definite advantage when it comes to getting a project across the finish line. With a total of 43.5 MMtpa (5.8 Bcf/d) of capacity currently under construction and more than 100 MMtpa (13.4 Bcf/d) under development by these three, is there even room for anybody else?
In today’s blog, we look at the pre-FID projects under development by the Big Three, starting with Sempra.